Threat Matrix 2024

hezbollah leader nasarallah in serious condition following an assissination attempt

one can only hope.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Chicago reportedly preparing to process a lot of arrests during the convention, announcing extended court hours.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

U.S. Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin has ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) and Carrier Strike Group 3, who just departed yesterday from Guam, to expedite their deployment to the Middle East; while the USS Georgia (SSGN-729), an Ohio-Class Guided-Missile Submarine armed with over 150 Tomahawk Land-Attack Cruise Missiles, been directed to immediately reposition from her current location in the Mediterranean, to the U.S. Central Command’s Area-of-Operations.

OBSERVATION - The Lincoln is at least a week away - at full speed - from reaching a position to begin to influence any fight. It would have to do so alone since its top speed exceeds its support group. Dangerous to have a flattop without its escorts. The group would take a couple extra days if it stays together in formation.

A very unusual announcement involving there USS Georgia - deployments of our submarines normally is kept very secret and in the Georgia’s case, its Tomahawk weapons are offensive in nature.

POLITICAL FRONT –

August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates
FoxNews Sept 4th
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Word is that Trump got harris to agree to three debates. Harris representatives reportedly still disagree with the Fox hosted one.

Debates are set for Trump and Kamala
FoxNews Sept 4th
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

****
Walz’s military record has taken more hits over the weekend with numerous videos and documents where he claimed CSM retirement and deployment to the middle east. The unit chaplain’s critique was joined by the Brigade CSM and Walz’s own battalion commander who basically destroyed his narrative around the whole circumstances of his departure. The harris campaign has tried to say he ‘misspoke’, but that is gaining no ground. There are growing rumors that he may step down

****
Analysis of various rally photos of harris rallies released by harris campaign and allies show evidence of being AI generated or enhanced.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris is getting hammered for proposing that tips be exempt from income taxes - hmmm where have we heard that before. Made all the worse is that she cast the tie breaking vote to hire more IRS agents to hunt down those not reporting tips.

Similar hammering taking place over recent declarations that she will beef up border security. Where has she been the last 3 and half years - other than making matters worse.

Meanwhile, she has put out no other policy proposals, now 20 days into her campaign.

Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of Aug 1, 2024

The U.S. government is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information leading to the arrest of Iranian hackers accused of infiltrating and compromising industrial control systems of U.S. water infrastructure in 2023.

These hackers, believed to be associated with Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, specifically targeted a local water authority’s control system in Pennsylvania and other critical infrastructure across the U.S. The group responsible, known as “Cyber Av3ngers,” is suspected by the U.S. government to be a front for malicious cyber activities orchestrated by the Iranian government.

Russia -

Russia is threatening Ukraine and NATO, stating that a severe response to strikes on Russian regions is coming.
“The organizers and perpetrators of these crimes, including their foreign curators, will be held responsible for them.”

RUMINT-
President Putin to address the world later today.
Rumors coming out that he will declare full scale war on Ukraine. Will order Kiev and Lviv destroyed!

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

OPSEC is still the name of the game by Ukraine. I’ve pulled the Kursk offensive material into a separate section.

It is believed Russian forces have set tires on fire inside one of the cooling towers at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. Currently, radiation levels are within norm.

A swarm of Ukrainian drones struck the Chkalovsky air base near Moscow. It is the home to IL-80 russian doomsday planes that Putin would be on if nuclear war broke out.

Russia continued to attack along its current primary assault axis of Ocheretyne, but with not reported gains.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.

Ukrainian forces have reportedly broke through the Russian border near Bezimeno and Kolotilovka in the Belgorod Region (red arrows). Conflicts are ongoing. Map below

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUtdf1pWAAADj4K.jpg

Evacuation announced in Belovsky district of Kursk region.
Governor of Belgorod region announced evacuation in Krasnaya Yaruga district

Ukrainian armored vehicles have visually confirmed entered the village of Gir’i. They are operating unimpededly between this village and Belitsa.
It is the strongest indication so far that the entire area between Sudzha and Gir’i is under Ukrainian control, possibly even all the way to Belaya.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUxYgLlXsAAJTQo.jpg

NOTE, the above link is the better of the two maps

Number of prisoners is approaching 3000. Among the videos there are numerous groups of Akhmat-Kadirovites (Chechen)

Ukrainian special forces with night vision equipment are creating havoc in Kursk oblast at night as poorly equipped Russians units have no answers.

Reports of Ukrainian fighter jets flying over the Kursk region of Russia

Russian Ministry of Defense claims Russian troops foiled Ukrainian advance attempt at Kauchuk town of Kursk region

Outlook —

If the news coming out from the Russian side is anywhere near accurate - Ukraine still has Russia by the private parts in this offensive. Ukraine has deeply deployed scouts and special ops which is causing a lot of confusion and destruction in the rear areas. Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine scout units have executed several successful ambushes of Russian convoys brining reinforcements into the region.

A supporting attack appears to be developing and headed into the Belgorod Oblast. This could be designed to link up with a renewed push to the east southeast on the Kursk front. Likely taking advantage of units pulled out to reinforce Kursk.

Deep strike against the Moscow region hasn’t taken place for many months, and Ukraine is after it.

Some analysts are trying to determine how much more the Ukraine army will attempt in this push. Some are on a pessimistic side. A lot will depend on how badly mauled the Russia reinforcements get before they even make it to the battle line.

Additional eyes and ears on putin today. He my use this assault to declare full war against Ukraine - and cease being a police security operation. His options are thin at this stage. His mobilized conscripts have been barely enough to replace the casualties being received on the front (well over 30,000 per month). To counter this attack he will have to drastically drawdown the ongoing offensive ops further south - an potentially see local Ukrainian counter attacks regain land. These units being pulled from southern areas are only marginally combat effective, being pulled back to re-man and re-arm.

He may have to further strip other military districts of their units and ship to the front. That takes a lot of time and planning.

He has strategic bombers and associated cruise and ballistic missiles. It has been a while since the last major attack, so he may have some stockpile built. He can’t really count on missile carriers of the Black Sea fleet, unless he wants to risk more losses there.

Finally, the absolute worst case, is that putin uses a tactical nuke. He’s been threatening for the past 3 years and if Ukraine continues to make headway, he may resort to the desperate measure.

With everything going on in the north, Ukraine still has the Kerch Bridge wild card to play.

Ukraine has seized the initiative and is pressing its advantage.

ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,

Key overnight developments -

- Hospitals in N Israel on high alert

- Hamas refuses latest hostage / ceasefire deal.

- Israeli intel continues to warn of impending strike.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
Hospitals in northern Israel on high alert, preparing to operate underground in case of emergency

***
Hamas says in a statement that it refuses to participate in the hostage deal negotiations on August 15. Some believe that this is a post-strike day and that they may have better bargaining positions after the Iran/Hezbollah attack.

***
Unconfirmed at this point - The updated assessment of the Israeli intelligence community is that Iran has decided to attack Israel directly in retaliation for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh and may do within days, even before the August 15 hostage deal talks, according to 2 unidentified sources

***
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has been bolstering its defenses in recent days amid an anticipated Iranian and Hezbollah attack on the country, as well as preparing potential attacks as a response, or preemptive actions if needed. “We are in the days of vigilance and readiness, the threats from Tehran and Beirut may materialize and it is important to explain to everyone that readiness, preparedness, and vigilance are not synonyms for fear and panic,” says Gallant at a meeting of the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee.

CNN reports: Israeli intelligence believes that Hezbollah will launch an attack on August 12 (tomorrow, the evening of Tisha B’av), and hours later, Iran will join and launch its own attack.

****
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has instructed his cabinet not to publicly discuss security matters in the coming days amid the tense wait for Iran and Hezbollah’s retribution for the elimination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr, Kan Reshet Bet reported on Monday.
“These are fateful days,” Netanyahu told the ministers and asked them to remain silent on matters of defense.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israeli media: The army expands the scope of its closed military zone around Gaza after a new assessment

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF says 30 Hezbollah rockets were fired from southern Lebanon at northern Israel communities which landed in open areas setting fields ablaze; Israeli forces responded by attacking several terror installations in southern Lebanon, injuring 12
NOTE - This rocket attack caused some discussion that the Iron Dome system failed to intercept the rockets. The rockets that hit the ground, did so in open areas away from people and where they could do minimal damage - such is the design of Iron Dome to economize the targeting efforts.

***
Unconfirmed reports that Hezbollah has evacuated its political headquarters in Da’ha in Beirut. According to the Lebanese reports, computers and other electronic equipment were also evacuated.

***
RUMINT - Unverified rumors in Lebanon that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is hospitalized following an assassination attempt. This morning no further news or info - strongly suspect that this is a nothing burger.

***
While the Israeli home front awaits a response from the Iranian-led axis, potentially involving an extreme barrage of rockets, various types of missiles, and drones, officers in the Northern Command warn that the threat of a ground infiltration into communities along the northern border remains.

According to the officers, contrary to popular belief, Hezbollah’s Radwan Force is still capable of launching an organized attack on the border, including efforts to penetrate a community or military post.

“Why hasn’t Hezbollah done this yet? Because they have chosen not to. But anyone who thinks that Hezbollah isn’t training to infiltrate a squad of fighters into Israeli territory is mistaken,” officers said.

Security officials estimated in a conversation with Walla that while the IDF has indeed significantly damaged the infrastructure of the Radwan Force near the border, thereby reducing its ability to conduct a large-scale surprise infiltration into Israeli territory, Hezbollah has not abandoned its intention to respond to the assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-814335

OBSERVATION - The effectiveness of the Radwan force initially was based on earlier Israeli preparedness levels of pre-Oct 7. The heightened alert status - a lot more ground forces patrolling the border and the ongoing damage have taken Radwan down a few notches. Still a terror threat.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syrian State Media is reporting strikes by Israeli artillery on military sites in the Daraa District of southwestern Syria, near the border with Israel.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

U.S.-led coalition fighter jets attacked Houthi targets on Kamran Island, northeast of Hudaydah in Yemen.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Leaders of UK, France and Germany call for a ceasefire and release of hostages as the slaughter mounts in Gaza

——— FORECAST ————————-

Another window of warning ongoing. Continued indicators that infer Iran and Hezbollah are putting the final pieces together for the strike. Of course delay is a major psyop measure that Iran and its proxies have used to their advantage for quite some time now. Is wears down the opponent’s readiness. It is double bladed in that it also wears down its own forces.

The Pentagon is scrambling to get naval forces into place. The arrival of the USS Lincoln CSG is at least a week away. Only effective if things blow out in a greater manner.

Speculation still centers on Hezbollah launching the first wave of attacks in an effort to wear down Israeli air defenses and hopefully get some lucky hits. Iran would follow with the next wave(s) counting on IAF busy targeting Hezbollah and not ready to intercept the wave of drones and cruise missiles.

With biden essentially out of the mix, Netanyahu is more likely to counter strike Iran and do it hard. It can go unsaid that Hezbollah and Lebanon will also be hammered as well. This could trigger the awaited Israeli ground offensive into Lebanon.

Folks, the decision tree is cluttered with options. Only thing certain is that the first round(s) of strikes / counter strikes will be at a level we’ve never seen in the region outside of the US invasion of Iraq. Where it goes from there is uncertain.

Iran –

Iranian media outlets reported that Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Deputy for Strategic Affairs of Masoud Pezeshkian, has resigned. He announced his decision after releasing a critical statement in response to the President’s proposed cabinet

Syria -

Shellings renewed overnight between SDF and government/Iran-linked groups along both banks of the Euphrates River in Deir Ez-Zour of northeast Syria. Civilian casualties and displacement were reported. Tensions remain high in Hasakah and Qamishli as well. A Russian delegation mediates between both sides, with no results yet

***
Turkish Defense Minister: Withdrawal from Syria cannot be discussed until agreement on new constitution, elections and securing borders

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

The globalist tyrants in control of the European Union sent a letter to Elon Musk on Monday demanding the X owner censor President Donald Trump during their interview tonight.

The letter was sent by Thierry Breton and was dated August 12, 2024.
Thierry Breton is a French business executive, politician, writer and the current Commissioner for Internal Market of the European Union.
In the letter, Thierry warns Elon Musk, “You have the legal obligation to ensure X’s compliance with EU law and in particular the DSA in the EU.”

Thierry Breton goes on,
“This notably means ensuring on one had that freedom of expression and of information, including media freedom and pluralism, are effectively protected and, on the other hand, that all proportionate and effective mitigation measures are put in place regarding the amplification of harmful content in connection with relevant events, including live streams, which if unaddressed, might increase the risk profile of X and generate detrimental effects on civic discourse and public security. This is important against the background of recent examples of public unrest brought about by the amplification of content that promotes hatred, disorder, incitement to violence, or certain instances of disinformation.”

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/european-union-tyrants-send-letter-elon-musk-demand/

OBSERVATION - Ongoing effort by the WEF lacky EU to dictate their policies and ‘laws’ onto the US.
But the big thing to note is the emphasis upon “disinformation” (misinformation). Here, once again is 1984ish thought and speech control where the dictators say what is and isn’t ‘information’ suitable for the consumption and discussions of the minions. You hear the same being screeched by democrats here - starting all the way back to the wuhan plandemic - ‘misinformation’ that has sense been proven to be true and the ‘misinformation’ coming from govt authorities.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

August 19 - DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

The strong bent of the harris / walz ticket against Israel and in support of Hamas may serve to mitigate pro-hamas protests/riots during the DNC convention. More specifically, this may reduce funding for these various Palestinian and islamic groups which in turn will drive down participation.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Oil prices jumped by more than 3% on Monday, rising for a fifth consecutive session on expectations of a widening Middle Eastern conflict that could tighten global crude oil supplies.
Brent crude futures settled higher at $82.30 a barrel, gaining $2.64, or 3.3%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $80.06 a barrel, up $3.22, or 4.2%.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/oil/2024/08/12/id/1176225/

OBSERVATION - Not a huge jump at this time, but definitely upward pressure as the situation with Iran continues to come to a boil.

***
Bank of America no longer forecasts a U.S. recession in 2024.

OBSERVATION - BoA is tightly bonded to the deep stated in many ways and its forecast is suspect in that measure.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Another U.S. destroyer, the USS Laboon, has moved into the eastern Mediterranean Sea after transiting the Suez Canal from the Red Sea, defense official says. It joins the nearby destroyers USS Bulkeley, USS Roosevelt and the three-ship amphib TF in region led by USS Wasp

POLITICAL FRONT –

August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
Debates
FoxNews Sept 4th
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Newly released records reveal that Trump would-be assassin, Thomas Crooks, spent months engaging in rifle training at the same training ground used by DHS, FBI, and local police.

OBSERVATION - Been chewing on this development for a few days now. Given the apparent open door to an assassination attempt that was left wide open by SS “blunders”, and the blank slate this guy had in social media and the internet in general, this scenario for grooming becomes more likely. One of the biggest questions has been how did he get bomb making information absent the internet? What swayed him into the attempt? Who among these DHS and FBI individual(s) befriended Crooks at the range.

***
Elon Musk’s much-hyped interview of former President Donald Trump on the social media platform X was quickly derailed by technical glitches in the first minutes of the scheduled start time on Monday evening. Musk suggested it was a DDOS attack.

Social media users trying to log on to the event, which was scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET, reported that they could not join X’s livestream platform.
Shortly after 8:20 p.m., Musk, the billionaire Tesla and SpaceX CEO, blamed a cyberattack for the freezing screens. He said that the company had tested the system with 8 million concurrent listeners earlier on Monday to preempt any technical errors and ensure X’s livestream capabilities could handle the event.

The conversation did finally get off the ground and by all indicators it went well for Trump.

harris was invited to do a similar interview/conversation - but she loudly said NO and then proceeded to denounce the event.

According to Musk, the various iterations of the discussion had already hit over a billion total views before midnight.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Police recordings now confirm the medical emergency actions that affected biden during his Las Vegas trip last month. Democrats had attempted to sweep the incident under the rug as at that time they and their MSM lapdogs were in a fierce struggle to convince the nation that biden was in excellent health.

***
After getting a fanciful cover, Harris is declining an interview with Time Magazine.

Russia -

Putin’s address was some what of a nothing burger. Putin accused Ukraine of trying to ‘improve its negotiating position’ through its Kursk offensive into Russian territory during a meeting this morning. Putin added that Ukraine is likely to seek further operations to destabilize the border region amid the evacuation of 11,000 residents in Belgorod due to ongoing Ukrainian operations.

Putin also accused the UN of inaction due to the invasion of Russian territory.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90 degree range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 30 Shahed drones overnight

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

NOTE - Much of the OSINT is coming from Russian based reports. Ukraine still holding to very tight OPSEC. Situation on the ground is still confused and changing minute by minute.

Ukrainian forces have fully captured the center of Sudzha, the administrative capital of Sudzhansky District in Kursk Oblast, Russia.
Ukrainian forces have captured of Sudzha train station have been able to access crucial intel regarding Russian logistic operations in the area. Ukrainian Military is apparently rolling around Sudzha without any hindrance.

It is estimated that Ukrainian Armed Forces currently control around 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of Russian territory. According to conservative estimation of Ukrainian military Telegram channel DeepState, Ukrainian army controls 44 settlements in Kursk region

Evacuation announced in Bolshoye Soldatskoye district of Kursk region

Ukraine has announced a closed military zone in 20kms border zone of Sumy region

Ocheretyne -

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Lysychne village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Outlook —

The bulk of the info on the status of the Kursk offensive is still based on Russian milbloggers and associated Russians. It is apparent that Ukraine is still pressing forward with the attack, but may soon be reaching the limits of its units and logistics tail and have to dig in.
The apparent capture of Sudzha is a huge gain for Ukraine. It effectively shuts down resupply by rail and road to units fighting in the Kharkiv and further south. It has also opened (and it seems Ukraine is attempting to exploit) more terrain to the east - southeast.

The effects of Russia’s massive redeployment efforts are evident in the much lower Russian attacks in areas like Chasiv Yar and northward. Russia is still pressing its attacks in the Ocheretyne axis, but some of its operational reserves have been bleed off to the Kursk defense.

One aspect that Ukraine has capitalized on and will continue to for the near future is the cluster that all these disjointed Russian units are having trying to organize for the fight. Undermanned and lacking key command elements, there is no apparent higher level command set up to organize the defense. Hence, units continue to be thrown piecemeal into the fight. Russian air assets can’t tell friend from foe and have hit Russian units on several occasions.

Russian recon and special ops continue to apparently create havoc in these disjointed reinforcements.

If Ukraine had a larger invasion force, things would have been a lot worse for Russia. But the assets Ukraine had have done an outstanding job.

Finally, putin’s speech yesterday really was more like a whine. Rumors abound that there are new coup pressures building following the Kursk debacle. The embarrassment to putin is massive.

ISRAEL –
Tisha B’Av, August 12 and ends on August 13,

Key overnight developments -

- Large numbers of jews forced their way onto the Temple mount in remembrance of Tisha B’Av.

- Israel is progressively increasing its alert and readiness statuses.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida says in a statement that guards assigned to watch Israeli hostages shot and killed a captive and wounded two female hostages in two separate incidents. He blamed Israel for the shootings. Obeida did not provide proof to support the claim

Israeli army spokesperson: We are monitoring developments in Iran in cooperation with our partners.

Unconfirmed reports said to be leaked by Israeli and western intelligence sources claim that movements and activities that immediately proceeded the April attack have been observed over the past 24 hours in Iran.

Israel prepares for potential Iran axis missile assault on Ben-Gurion Airport near Tel Aviv. in case of ongoing attacks, Israel will shut down Ben-Gurion & shift operations to Ramon Airport in the south within 12 hours of activating emergency protocol.

Israel’s southern Airport was built with extra-long runways to allow large aircraft to land during wartime, report says, including cargo planes carrying arms deliveries.
Ramon Airport threat level is believed to be much lower after IDF destroyed most long-range rockets in Gaza. The airport is protected by Iron Dome & Arrow air defenses. (Amir Tsafarti)

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Israel struck Hamas related targets with air and artillery strikes throughout Gaza overnight.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IAF hit Hezbollah targets all along the border with Israel overnight.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces increased the tempo of its operations in the West Bank.

Israel is warning that Hezbollah/Iran has been smuggling weapons and munitions thru Jordan and into the West Bank to eventually generate an uprising that may be attempted in conjunction with pending the Hezbollah/Iran attack.

More than 1,900 Jewish settlers entered the Temple Mount (Al-Aqsa Mosque) since morning. Actions related to the remembrance of Tisha B’Av, commemorating the destruction of the first and second temples.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

It is being reported that Iranian backed militias in Syria and Iraq will attack US forces in conjunction with Irans attack against Israel.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Jordanian Foreign Ministry: We condemn the storming of Al-Aqsa Mosque by “two extremist Israeli ministers” and members of the Knesset under the protection of the Israeli police. Continued Israeli unilateral measures and ongoing violations of the historical and legal status quo in Jerusalem and its holy sites require a clear and firm international stance.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Iranian President Pezeshkian had thirty minute long phone conversation this evening as part of global de-escalation efforts. UK asks Iran to stand down on its threat about a military attack against Israel

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told his Iranian counterpart Ali Bagheri Kani on Sunday that the Chinese Communist Party supports Iran “defending its sovereignty, security and national dignity” prior to an expected Iranian attack on Israel.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Another window of warning ongoing. Indicators being reported by Israeli and Western intelligence sources continue to track more and more indicators of an impending Iranian attack. We are now essentially past the Tisha B’Av window, so the only other delay may be an Aug 15 attempt to get a cease fire / hostage exchange put together. Most are less than optimistic on such an agreement following Hamas rejection of many of the terms.s

Israel for its part seems to be increasing its targeting of Hezbollah rocket and missile launching locations in S Lebanon. Hezbollah leadership have apparently gone into deep bunkers - indicators of imminent action.

Western leaders apparently have been trying to get Iran to stand down. Such an action without legitimate reasons will cause Iran to lose face and appear weak.

Continue to be alert as things can change in a minute.

Iran –

Iranian President: War is not in the interest of any country, and punitive response to the aggressor is a legitimate right of countries to stop crime and aggression.

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: Those who call on Tehran to refrain from responding to Israel lack political logic

Saudi Arabia –

The Biden administration will lift its ban on the sales of offensive weaponry to Saudi Arabia, Reuters reported on Friday, a move that reverses the three-year US ban amidst ongoing attempts by the administration to broker a Saudi-Israel normalisation deal.

OBSERVATION - The resumption of offensive weaponry to SA creates a greater threat to Iran and the Houthi’s in Yemen. biden’s blocking these sales was one of many massive, strategic regional foreign policy blunders of his regime.

Syria -

8 pro-Assad fighters were killed in a drone strike against their bus 2 days ago in the S. Deir ez-Zur countryside. Some were tribal fighters and area targeted suggest a US airstrike

Misc of Note –

The current data indicates that the Second ENSO Neutral thresh hold has been established at the end of July 2024, thereby Enso Neutral conditions continues. The ONI has dropped to +0.2°C for MJJ2024 season. Nino3.4 SST for June 2024 is 0.18°C and for July 2024 is 0.10°C and so for ONI of JJA2024, the combined total of three months Nino3.4 SST for June, July & August 2024 should at least go down to -1.36°C, so as to get ONI for JJA2024 as -0.5°C by rounding to one decimal.

Concluding from the above analysis, Enso Neutral conditions will prevail for JJA2024 and at the end of August, since only four months will be left in the current year 2024 full-fledged La Nina cannot be established, even if La Nina thresh hold is achieved in any of the four months remaining.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/08/12/noaa-criteria-suggest-full-fledged-la-nina-unlikely-in-2024-even-a-single-la-nina-threshold-unlikely-during-the-indian-southwest-monsoon/

Neither El Niño nor La Niña is expected through winter. The so-called neutral conditions still offer clues on what winter could bring.

This neutral phase means there is no push in the atmosphere in either direction from the equatorial Pacific water. This lack of forcing can make it more difficult to predict the weather pattern in the months ahead, and there are many other elements to consider.

NOAA indicates that the polar jet stream may be shifted farther south and have more of a tendency to allow colder-than-average air into portions of the Midwest and Northeast during a neutral winter.

Meanwhile, much of the southern tier of the U.S. may end up with a warmer-than-average winter overall.

In addition, the subtropical jet stream may shift the track of storms to bring an overall wet winter to much of the South. The Pacific storm track may also result in low-pressure systems moving more into the Northwest versus California compared to a typical El Niño winter.

Neutral conditions have been factored into this fall’s temperature forecast, with most of the contiguous U.S. likely to see near-to-above-average temperatures. The exception is the Pacific Northwest where near-to-slightly-below-average conditions are currently anticipated through fall.

https://weather.com/science/weather-explainers/news/enso-neutral-lack-el-nino-la-nina-impact-weather-winter

OBSERVATION - All the above gobbledygook suggests an unsettled winter. Final winter trends are still developing.

Remember - the ambiguity of a 4-6 month forecast with a lot of data only goes to show that global warming ‘forecasts’ are worthless on the scale of years.

Black Swans -