https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1731680522928030117
Vodka?
Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4200929/posts
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA.
“Why Internet Trolls Do What They Do and How to Spot Russian Fakes”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLtBzvw0—0
“Here is the best-kept secret about U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Most of the money is being spent here in the United States. That’s right: Funds that lawmakers approve to arm Ukraine are not going directly to Ukraine but being used stateside to build new weapons or to replace weapons sent to replace weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stockpiles. Of the $68 billion in military and related assistance Congress has approved since Russia invaded Ukraine, almost 90 percent is going to Americans, one analysis found.”
https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1730119780873441750
https://twitter.com/Heroiam_Slava/status/1731680522928030117
Vodka?
https://twitter.com/raging545/status/1731354117765837294
ISW reports (3 Dec):
“Ukrainian air defense coverage along the front line is reportedly incentivizing Russian forces to rely more heavily on remote strikes with glide bombs.
Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated on December 3 that Ukrainian forces shoot down Russian attack helicopters, such as Ka-52 and Mi-24 helicopters, as soon as they enter the range of Ukrainian air defense systems. Shtupun stated that this Ukrainian air defense capability has prompted Russian forces to use Su-35 and Su-34 attack aircraft to launch remote strikes with glide bombs from 50 to 70 kilometers behind the line of combat engagement.
Russian forces effectively used helicopters to defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast in summer 2023 but decreased the use of rotary wing aircraft following the downing of Ka-52 helicopters in the area in mid-August 2023. Shtupun’s statements are consistent with these observations as well as with the increased Russian use of glide bombs throughout the frontline, particularly in southern Ukraine.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat stated on December 3 that Ukrainian air defenses are similarly prompting Russian forces to increase their use of KAB glide bombs because FAB glide bombs require Russian aircraft to fly within range of Ukrainian air defenses.
Ihnat added that KAB bombs are inaccurate and that Russian forces therefore launch a large number of the glide bombs to strike Ukrainian targets. Ihnat stated that Russian aviation launches about 100 glide bombs on average at Ukrainian targets along the front line each day and stated that Ukraine needs long-range air defense systems and F-16 fighter jets to counter the current Russian aviation threat.
The United Kingdom Ministry of Defense (UK MoD) reported that Russian air defense systems are also constraining Ukrainian operations along the front, specifically Russian SA-15 TOR short-range surface-to-air missile systems (SAMs). The UK MoD reported that Russian forces use the SA-15 SAMs to provide cover for Russian ground forces at the front line and have effectively employed them to counter Ukrainian drone operations.”
Why Russia now has to use its A-50U (AWACS equivalent) closer to the fight in Ukraine
https://breakingdefense.com/2023/12/why-russia-now-has-to-use-its-a-50u-closer-to-the-fight-in-ukraine/
“UK MoD Defence Intelligence reported Nov. 17 that Russia’s Aerospace Forces (VKS) are increasingly risking their most advanced Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft, the Beriev A-50U, to identify enemy airborne targets in Ukraine airspace...
...The heart of the A-50U upgrade replaces previous-generation analogue electronics with a modern, digital avionics suite that speeds data processing and enhances both signal tracking and target detection. Spokesmen for the RosElectronica consortium that produces the on-board hardware state the A-50U configuration can detect more types of aircraft and simultaneously track a larger number of targets and guided missiles than the previous-generation variant....
...While over 40 A-50s have been produced, there are only eight of this most advanced version of the aircraft, and any lost in action would be difficult if not impossible to replace....
...That Russia would be willing to move the planes forward is a tacit acknowledgement of the ongoing issues with the VKS (Russian Air Force), but there are three specific reasons for the move now: Russian air losses, the need to maximize the S-400 air defense system, and preparing for an influx of Western-made fighter jets in 2024...
...a detailed assessment from RAND expert Michael Bohnert calculates as few as 84 and up to as many as 130 fixed- and rotary-wing aircraft have been lost by Russia. That includes losses due to Ukrainian air-to-air kills, shoot downs by Ukraine’s air defense units and crashes due to training or other accidents.
Bohnert also calculates “imputed” losses of between 27 to 57 aircraft, due to the VKS flying aircraft for a far greater number of hours and at op-tempo far above the normal wear-and-tear that Russian platforms are designed to endure. (In his analysis, Bohnert also notes imputed losses are likely higher.)...
...“When it [the VKS] first started out, they were flying right into the surface-to-air missile engagement zones of the Ukrainians,” he (US Air Forces Europe/Africa head Gen. James B. Hecker) said in an interview with Air & Space Forces Magazine. “So, they now don’t fly in those rings, or if they do, it is for low altitude for very quick moments and then they go back out...
...A Nov. 28 Newsweek report cited a Ukrainian spokesperson saying that “after the [Russian] loss of eight Sukhoi Su-25 subsonic [close air support] attack aircraft near Avdiivka, the use of front-line aircraft and attack helicopters was significantly reduced.”...
...“The Russian Air Force tend to take a beating and then pull back well out of range. Then – one step at a time – they inch back towards the front lines, until they suffer another ‘bloody nose’ incident of some nature...
...it seems the A-50U is breaking the mold and actually creeping closer to the front lines...
...A second role the A-50U has been pressed into is sharing the air data picture data from its SATCOM radar via datalink to Moscow’s most modern air defense system, the Almaz-Antei S-400 (SA-21). This creates a more integrated air defense network effective at greater ranges...
...(the A-50U can provide mid-course corrections to S-400 missiles) Notably, the S-400 equipped with the kind of active-homing seeker needed for this pairing to work was only deployed to Ukraine in early November, which may be a signal of challenges in building up an active seeker arsenal...
...The third rationale for increased use of the A-50U, according to MoD Intelligence reports, are concerns about the pending introduction of western fighter aircraft into Ukrainian Air Force (PSU) service. Not only would Ukraine receiving the US F-16 and/or the Swedish Saab JAS-39 Gripen constitute the threat of more VKS aircraft losses, but any S-400s being deployed to neutralize those western aircraft would be increasingly vulnerable to attacks from the air.
The number of S-400s lost to air and missile attacks has, in some ways, become a more serious problem for the Russian military than the number of aircraft shot down...
...Units lost in combat to date cannot be replaced with new production anytime soon due to shortages of modern, electronic components, and Moscow now seemingly has fewer S-400s than it needs to protect its airbases, command centers and what is left of the Black Sea Fleet. The evidence? Russia’s forces have now resorted to re-deploying batteries that had been based in the western enclave of Kaliningrad.”
Prepping the infospace for Turkey to ratify Swedish accession into NATO this month:
‘Russian intelligence services planned a series of disruptive activities to try to prevent, or at least hinder, Sweden and Finland’s accession to NATO, the Finnish media outlet YLE reported on Dec. 4, citing leaked Russian intelligence documents.” https://news.yahoo.com/media-russia-planned-interference-campaigns-162429117.html
Look what Putin has wrought:
“The European Union needs to get its own nuclear arsenal to better deter Russia, a former Foreign Minister of Germany, Joschka Fischer (who played a key role in founding the German Green Party)... in an interview with Die Zeit, published on Sunday.”
That a Greenie talking.
Putin is a Master Strategist.
Poland to provide Ukraine with 54 more of their excellent Krab Self Propelled 155mm howitzers.
Looks like they are back on good terms.
Because Putin.
USAF Forte 11 Global Hawk spy plane taking a close look at Sochi right now, after earlier passes today near Crimea and Kerch.
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Homeless people began to disappear in Moscow. How does this relate to the war and Sobyanin’s plan?
The number of homeless people in Moscow has approximately halved over the past few months. This is evidenced by closed monitoring data from the capital’s mayor’s office. According to analysts, the primary reason is worsening weather conditions.
However, data from one of the analytical centers, the name of which we cannot disclose for obvious reasons, showed that Moscow has begun a serious process of clearing out “extra people.”
The first to come to hand were the so-called “guest workers” - immigrants mainly from Central Asian countries, who managed to acquire Russian passports, and who are now being actively recruited into the Northeast Military District zone. Including forcibly.
The implementation of such a scenario we announced immediately after Sobyanin’s victorious elections, but, alas, no one believed it.
Now homeless people have begun to be taken in for “resorting.” Those who are physically capable of performing at least some tasks are taken away for military purposes.
Moreover, they are often not processed at all due to lack of documents, but the homeless perform minimal tasks, receive a roof over their heads and food.
Naturally, there are no payments. There are rumors that people are still being processed, but the money goes into the pockets of Defense Ministry employees.
Thus, Sobyanin proposed a scheme according to which the authorities could mobilize the promised 50 thousand Muscovites, but would bypass the Muscovites themselves. At least the solvent public.
—
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Putin was offered to make a nice gesture for the New Year and demobilize the first batch of mobilized soldiers from the front
Vladimir Putin, in his New Year’s address, may announce the demobilization of the first batch of military personnel who were mobilized in the fall of 2022. A source in the Kremlin told us about this.
“The situation with demobilization is difficult, but smart people advised Vladimir Vladimirovich to make a nice gesture. This way, the military will see that there is nothing wrong with mobilization and in a year and a half you can safely go home as a hero.
“Well, this is an extra signal to the West - they say, they are ready for negotiations,” said our source.
However, according to our data, if Putin announces demobilization, it will be about a small number - about 10 thousand military personnel who will have health problems. That is, we are certainly not talking about mass dismissals from the army.
It is worth noting that we previously wrote about the president’s plans to make a statement on demobilization on a direct line, but now, as our sources say, there is no final decision.
Kremlin political strategists propose to put this good news under the Christmas tree. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense understands that real demobilization can only happen in the spring or at the end of February.
—
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Putin is dissatisfied with the number of volunteers and has set a new task for the regions
The President took part in the ceremony of presenting the International Prize “We Are Together”, but was dissatisfied with the number of volunteers in the country.
In his speech, he emphasized that 25% of Russians take part in volunteer initiatives, but behind the scenes he said that this was not enough.
The fact is that Vladimir Vladimirovich saw the text of the speech with the figure 25% on the way to the ceremony and was frankly surprised. He was sincerely confident that the figure was significantly higher.
Now, through Sergei Kiriyenko, a new task has been set in the regions - to increase the number of volunteers and volunteer events. It is noteworthy that this is not the first attempt by the authorities to force the country’s population into volunteering, but no significant increase was noticed.
Sources surrounded by a number of governors believe that Kiriyenko may use this pretext to remove a number of unwanted governors . At the same time, the President’s daughter Ekaterina Tikhonova is trying to strengthen her influence on the regions, as we wrote about earlier. In general, governors are not to be envied.
The extreme capital controls that Putin imposed in October (requiring exporters to deposit 80% of revenue in Russian banks, and convert 90% of it into rubles), were effective in strengthening the ruble against the dollar - for about 40 days.
But since cracking below 88 to the dollar on 22 November, the curve has inflected back up (now around 91).
The Russian Central Bank Chief had previously argued against such measures to shore up the currency, because she thought that those effects would be temporary (until businesses instituted workarounds with foreign partners and subsidiaries), but that they would impose real reductions in business efficiency, and even total activity.
If that drug has already worn off for manipulating the value of the ruble, and we are still far from the March “elections” in Russia, we might yet see some economic fireworks over the value of the ruble beforehand.
After the election, the Russian economy and Government finances will have Hell to pay, as their many “kick the can down the road” policy bills come due; but it sure would be fun if things are already burning and blowing up going into the elections.
(Ruble Deathwatch)
Sunday night, Israel announced that its Ground Operations had expanded to all of Gaza (South as well).
Khan Younis reportedly seeing a lot of strikes.
Forbes reports:
“The news broke on Monday in ArmyInform’s interview with Lt. Gen. Ivan Gavrylyuk, Ukraine’s deputy minister of defense. “Currently, work is underway to create the so-called ‘Long Neptune,’” Gavrylyuk said. “This is a new modification of the missile for the Neptune complex.”...
...other countries enhanced their cruise missiles by making them longer. In extending the 17-foot Neptune and filling the extra space with additional fuel for the missile’s turbofan engine, Ukraine could add a lot to its approximately 200-mile range...
...A Long Neptune that also has the improved seeker might be able to range more than 200 miles. Potentially a lot more. That could put all of occupied Crimea plus adjacent Russian territories within range of Ukrainian batteries firing missiles from well behind the front line.”
"Since the Black Sea humanitarian corridor opened in August, 200 ships have passed through it, carrying 7 million metric tons of cargo from Ukrainian ports, including almost 5 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products, Infrastructure Minister Oleksandr Kubrakov said on Dec. 4.
As of the time of his announcement, Kubrakov said that 31 ships are currently loading cargo at ports in Odesa Oblast, and another 30 are transiting through the corridor.
U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink said on Nov. 13 that the 100th ship had passed through the corridor... Kubrakov's figure represented a significant increase in the total less than one month later."
Essanews (Polish) reports:
“Russia experiences an intense frost; temperatures plunge to -58 degrees in Siberia
In recent years, Yakutsk — (considered the coldest city in the world) — has been experiencing temperatures of approximately 24-26 degrees F. (this time of year). However, the cold has arrived noticeably early this year compared to previous years.
Meanwhile, in Moscow, one of the heaviest snowfalls in recorded history delayed flights at several airports on Monday... Forecasts predict the Russian capital’s temperature will drop to roughly -0 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this week.”
