Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4198861/posts
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA.
“Why Internet Trolls Do What They Do and How to Spot Russian Fakes”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLtBzvw0—0
And another... no wait... this is obviously a Religion Forum Caucus thread... sorry!
https://news.yahoo.com/us-germany-plan-force-zelenskyy-170600495.html
Winner's don't negotiate.....
Post Peak China:
China’s Global Economic Dominance Begins to Wane
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Chinas-Global-Economic-Dominance-Begins-to-Wane.html
“China’s share of the global economy dropped from 18.4% in 2021 to 17% in 2023, a 1.4% decrease in just two years.
This decline is attributed to a combination of fewer workers entering the labor force, high government debts, and slowing productivity growth.
Despite efforts by President Xi Jinping, China’s economic dominance is expected to continue declining due to various internal and external factors, including a shrinking workforce and a shift in foreign investments.”...
...”China’s decline could reorder the world. Since the 1990s, the country’s share of global GDP grew mainly at the expense of Europe and Japan, which have seen their shares hold more or less steady over the past two years. The gap left by China has been filled mainly by the US and by other emerging nations.
To put this in perspective, the world economy is expected to grow by $8tn in 2022 and 2023 to $105tn. China will account for none of that gain, the US will account for 45 per cent, and other emerging nations for 50 per cent. Half the gain for emerging nations will come from just five of these countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland. That is a striking sign of possible power shifts to come.”...
...”The ongoing baby bust in China has already lowered its share of the world working age population from a peak of 24 per cent to 19 per cent, and it is expected to fall to 10 per cent over the next 35 years. With a shrinking share of the world’s workers, a smaller share of growth is almost certain.”...
...”In nominal dollar terms, China’s GDP is on track to decline in 2023, for the first time since a large devaluation of the renminbi in 1994.”...
...”Investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the renminbi. Foreigners cut investment in Chinese factories and other projects by $12bn in the third quarter — the first such drop since records began.”...
...”It’s a post-China world now.”
Urals oil price (Russia’s main grade of oil) is back down near the price cap (around $62.50 on Friday, and diving for the last couple of weeks).
Costs remain elevated, and sanctions are being enforced on third parties more strongly the last couple of weeks as well (likely no coincidence - they seem to ease up when we want more Russian oil to lower prices, and tighten the noose on them when we don’t need it)
With many Russian refineries shuttered (about half) parts of their infrastructure may be vulnerable to damage from freezing.
When the real hard freezes are underway, there have been reports that a sabotage campaign is planned against Russian oil infrastructure, while freezing temperatures will magnify the damage.
Kyiv Post reports:
“Speaking at the Grain from Ukraine conference in Kyiv on Saturday, Nov. 25, President Volodymyr Zelensky revealed that partner countries have committed to transferring warships to Ukraine to enhance the safety of vessels navigating the critical “grain corridor” in the Black Sea...
...He emphasized that specific agreements for receiving the warships have already been made, making it a near-future reality.”
The Drone Wars have begun.
Kyiv Independent reports:
“The Domodedovo and Vnukovo international airports in Moscow oblast suspended operations after drones approached the Russian capital early on Nov. 26.
Flightradar data suggests departure flights are grounded.
Russian media claims 11 Ukrainian drones were shot down by air defense while one building in the city of Tula was hit.
Injuries were reported by local Russian media.”
Drone war intensifies.
ISW reports (25 Nov):
“Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat reported that Russian forces attacked Kyiv with a new modification of Shahed drones and noted that these drones were black in color and contained a material that absorbs radar signals, making them more difficult to detect.
Russian milbloggers similarly claimed that Russian forces used “black Geran” or “Feran” (the Russian name for Shaheds) drones for the first time and claimed that these drones are more challenging to detect in the night sky.
Iranian media published footage on November 19 showing the Iranian Ashura Aerospace University of Science and Technology presenting the new Shahed-238 jet-powered modification of the Shahed-136 drone. The presented Shahed-238 appeared to be black in color, but it is unknown if Russian forces used the Shahed-238 modification during the November 25 strike.”
UKRAINE'S FAILED SUMMER OFFENSIVE:
Recently there have been many Keyboard Kommanders that have stated that Ukraine's summer offensive (06/14 - 11/25) was a failure. I decided to summarize this "failure" for them.
PS - Keep "failing" Ukraine! @StarskyUA @RealJakeBroe @ArturRehi pic.twitter.com/tQM5rOHSlX— Spartan News (@Spartan_News1) November 25, 2023
“There’s no f------ ‘dying the death of the brave’ here,” one soldier told his brother from the front in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. “You just die like a f------ earthworm.”
All too often, one hears claims that, in the long run, Russia will win over Ukraine because it has a much larger economy and population. Historically, that is a flawed conclusion. Historical precedence suggests that Ukraine is more likely to win, so let’s take a look at the reasons why.