Posted on 10/02/2023 9:21:25 PM PDT by FarCenter
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Then what happens? Gaetz can get speedy consideration of his resolution by attaching a procedural “privilege” to it. That means McCarthy can take it up immediately or delay consideration for up to two legislative days. Once McCarthy takes it up, the House could travel one of three paths:
- A vote to table Gaetz’s push, effectively killing it. (This is the most likely option.)
- A vote to postpone consideration of it.
- A vote to refer it to a committee.
If Gaetz’s resolution survives an attempt to table it, which is expected to come from McCarthy allies, history would be made. That outcome would require Democrats joining a handful of anti-McCarthy conservatives to support the ouster effort. OK, THEN what happens? The House would move towards a vote on the Gaetz resolution itself, literally prying the gavel from McCarthy’s hands.
McCarthy’s math: Here’s where it gets extra tricky, with scratch paper needed. More than 200 Republicans will likely support McCarthy continuing as speaker.
The group of Republicans open to removing McCarthy, then, is a tiny fraction of the GOP Conference. With robust arm-twisting, Gaetz can expect a maximum of two dozen allies (and that’s ambitious).
But McCarthy doesn’t need 218 votes to survive. He only needs to get a simple majority of the members voting. That’s where Democrats get their major leverage here, with his fate essentially in their hands.
If Democrats vote present, they can take themselves out of the “members voting” count and allow McCarthy to hang on with less than a full majority of the current House, and with potentially much less support than he got in January’s grueling speaker election.
Minority Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) hasn’t yet indicated how Democrats will vote, promising a “caucus-wide discussion” if Gaetz makes his move. But Gaetz has been talking with Democrats about how many of them would vote to bail out the speaker that most of them abhor.
The DiFi factor: Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s (D-Calif.) funeral is Thursday, which could scramble the House’s schedule (more on that below the jump). A bevy of House Democratic absences could upend the math we outlined above, making it easier for McCarthy to hang on.
If this scenario happens, Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) might call it history repeating. As Massie recalled on Monday, the conservatives whipping against former Rep. John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) speakership bid in 2015 saw their efforts start to fail after some Democrats skipped the vote – to attend the late Gov. Mario Cuomo’s (D-N.Y.) funeral.
If McCarthy is booted, what next? His immediate replacement won’t be chosen by Gaetz – it will be handpicked by McCarthy himself. Here’s why.
Under a system created after Sept. 11, 2001, to ensure continuity of government, the House clerk would bring out a thus-far-secret list of McCarthy’s preferred successors. The first name on that list would immediately become an acting speaker, with all the authority of a regular speaker, and thus empowered to oversee the election of a new speaker.
Showdown? Goetz ran his mouth off, and strengthened McCarthy position. McCarthy should buy him a new car.
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If you’ve figured out Mitch McConnell is playing for the other team, you’ve figured out McCarthy is working for the other side.
It’s no surprise the Fatcats don’t see a problem.
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All of the maneuvering only matters until Atlas shrugs. Atlas will shrug based upon the success of POTUS Trump’s reelection. If The Donald survives the onslaught of the DS then America is at the crossroads of the Constitution and MAGA or spiraling down the drain to serfdom.
American Freedom has ever been only one generation away from being lost, this generation seems to be hell bent on destruction and the Boomer generation is starting to follow the WWII Generation into the long sleep.
Those remaining often do not see America’s and American greatness as true and worthy of celebration and honor as the greatest nation ever founded among men. Freedom isn’t Free and is lost without constant vigilance on the part of the citizenry. Are we still that people? That Nation? The next election will tell us so!
WWG1WGA!
Goetz is a damfool. Have you seen the laundry-list the Dems are holding out as conditions to save McCarthy? Including shutting down the impeachment inquiry?
It looks like Goetz has let a personal beef with McCarthy endanger everything.
Chad C. Mulligan, you are supporting the swamp. Gaetz should just go along??
McCarthy’s going nowhere, this much we know. Gaetz might as well start running for Gov. of Florida, his credibility is shot and to be honest, he’s turning into Hannity of the House. Before long he’ll be saying tick-tock.
As antiwar icon Abbie Hoffman once said “You have to get a program to understand the pogrom.”
Accountability is a female dog Kevin you lying sack.
So, if McCarthy gets the boot, unlikely, the new boss will be like the old boss. Picked by McCarthy. Not encouraging.
Yeah I’d take advice from politico like I’d take advice from a bitter exgirlfriend on my marriage.
“McCarthy’s going nowhere,”
Thanks to Trump big endorsement. Unless Trump retracts that, you’re right. The House will not cross Trump’s guy.
I think their analysis is wrong.
There is no avalanche of Republicans in the House who are going to line up to support a Speaker who deceived them.
This article writer thinks the motion to vacate will get only 20 votes or so. That’s absurd. 95 just voted no on the CR.
Why would McCarthy want to be Speaker if he is opposed by the majority of his conference? This is what drove Boehner out of office. Worshipping at the altar of governance rather than representing the majority of his caucus.
It’s a symptom of Swamp filth.
Maybe he thinks he's Samson pulling down the temple of Dagon, but I beg to remind him that Samson died in that action, too. Nobody will ever work with him again, ever.
“ Have you seen the laundry-list the Dems are holding out as conditions to save McCarthy? Including shutting down the impeachment inquiry?”
You’re saying McCarthy would sell out the country to save his position.
Pretty negative opinion of Kevmo.
Nicks a moderate GOPe sort
A decent fellow otherwise
I’m with u
Like Trump at least Matt fights
His eulogy was best
Comfort the afflicted
Afflict the comfortable
Hoffman loved the celebrity and the tang
Seems quaint by todays Maoist woke cultural Marxism bitter zealots
We need a good opus.... somebody needs to give up and bail out....
I feel like I’m watching days of our lives here on FR. Love to all Freepers though. :)
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