Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4176636/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
“More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.”
Ukraine: military situation update - Aug 21, 2023
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Successful Ambush! Ukrainians Destroy Russian Strategic Bombers! | Russia’s Best Turned to Ash ]
••Day 544: Aug 21
Today there is a lot of good news.
First of all, today, Ukrainians hit another strategic airfield on the territory of the Russian Federation, this time in the Kaluga region, 200 km from the border.
Russian sources reported that the attack was conducted with drones, but interestingly, a lot of prominent Russian sources noted that the Ukrainians drones once again hit Russians from the back.
It was reported that just like in the case of an attack on the airfield in the Novgorod region, a Ukrainian sabotage group launched several quad-copters with explosives from the nearby settlements.
Russian media claimed that all drones were detected on time and shot down, apart from one drone that hit one aircraft. They claimed that this aircraft was not working anyways, which is why the Ukrainian attack was a failure.
The Spokesman for Ukrainian Intelligence commented on the recent attacks on the Russian airfields and officially stated that the attacks were planned and executed by Ukrainian Intelligence, which dispels all previous doubts and confirms that Ukrainians have an impressive network of spies and saboteurs deep inside Russia.
He also claimed that multiple Russian aircraft were successfully destroyed or at least severely damaged, and these aircraft are almost certainly Russian strategic bombers Tu-22M3 that Russians are constantly using for conducting missile strikes on Ukraine.
The morning also started out loud in Moscow, where Russians suffered another drone strike.
This one, however, was completely different, as Ukrainians used long-range unmanned aerial vehicles that were launched from the territory of Ukraine.
Russian sources published footage of the Russian air defense work and reported that all airports in the region were closed.
Later, the locals reported an explosion and fire somewhere near Moscow.
So far, the details are unclear, but it seems like the drone managed to pass air defense.
Another interesting strike happened in Crimea.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainians launched 2 drones.
This is very unusual because launching lonely drones on large distances is less effective than launching them in large numbers.
It is unlikely that Ukrainians ran out of drones, so the only reason for adopting such a tactic would be to test the Russian air defense in preparation for a new strike that focuses on completely different military objects.
And if you still remember, recently, Ukrainians also launched a lonely missile S-200, which further indicates that Ukrainians are preparing a big surprise.
In light of a recent loud series of failures, Russians launched a massive disinformation campaign in order to change the sentiment of the population in the Russian media space.
Today, Russian sources published a video of Russian forces moving through the village and claimed that the Ukrainian defense near Kupyansk collapsed and Russian forces entered the village of Synkivka.
Moreover, some less prominent sources started claiming without any corroborative evidence that Russians somehow penetrated the front line in at least two more places and took several villages very far from the front line.
Ukrainian fighters that are actually fighting in Synkivka reported that the front line around Kupyansk is virtually not moving.
Later, the videos were geolocated, and it turned out that they were filmed half a thousand kilometers away in Voronovo, which is near Luschansk.
Russian sources received a huge backlash for posting untrue information, which is why most of them followed up with clarifications, claiming that it was by mistake.
Recently, Russian military bloggers also widely circulated footage of a tank battle and claimed that Ukrainians gathered the last available forces for the counteroffensive, made the last decisive attempt to breach the Russian defense in the Zaporizhzhia region and were completely defeated.
Later, it turned out that this was a one-year-old footage from a completely different region.
In reality, in the aftermath of methodical offensive actions, Ukrainians got 7 km deep on a 16 km wide front line in the Orikhiv direction and 11 km deep on a 30 km wide front line in the Velyka Novosilka direction.
It is true that even such gains are not yet strategically significant.
However, the reason why Ukrainians are slowly but surely pushing precisely in these two directions is simple - this is where the Russian defense lines are the closest to each other, meaning once Ukrainians pass them, there will be virtually no fortifications in the way.
In all other regions, the Russian defense lines are really far from each other due to the local geography and other factors.
Some analysts drew an analogy to the Jenga game - Ukrainians are gradually undermining the Russian defense in its weakest spots, and the Russian defense seems relatively stable until it crumbles.
The key is to preserve resources while constantly creating conditions that force Russians to burn their reserves in the same way as we have seen them do it Urozhaine, Staromaiorske, Mararivka, Storozheve, and Neskuzhne.
Badische Neueste Nachrichten (BNN): The Luna-25 fiasco shows that an autocratically ruled state, in the face of severe economic sanctions, is not yet able to replace the Western technologies it has lost in space exploration.
——> Russia’s own high-tech today is not good enough to cope with such extremely complex projects as landing on the moon. <——
From the fiasco of Russia on the moon, indirect conclusions can be drawn about the military capabilities of a nuclear power.
One of the reasons why Vladimir Putin’s SVO did not achieve its goal was that some types of Russian weapons lacked Western electronic components, the export of which was prohibited.
The fact that the aggressor apparently has not overcome this addiction is good news for Ukraine
==
Politico: New Delhi has a huge opportunity to consolidate its space dominance after the failure of Russia’s Luna 25 mission.
“India has always been regarded in the world as a junior space power. If India can succeed where Russia has failed, it will mean a new balance of power in space,” said Peter Garretson, Senior Fellow in the Division of Defense Studies at the American Council on Foreign Policy.
For Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India’s successful moon mission “will write a new history of planetary exploration,” said Indian politician Jitendra Singh.
••Robotnye:
UA controls the central part, but Russian troops have fled without any vehicles. [ UA likely de-mining the rest of the city before entering ].
The Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced to the center of the settlement. Robotnye, Zaporozhye region, - ISW.
Ukraine launched an offensive 3 km east of the settlement.
Progress there likely means that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have overcome Russian fortifications in the area.
Heavy fighting is going on in the village, and the Russia writes that Ukraine controls part of the front lines of Russia.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6159
==
Meanwhile, as the RGF sends still more troops to the area, Russian mil-bloggers are saying the Russian defense is starting to collapse. Orc problems include Logistics and Incompetent Command which is unaware of the actual state of their army in this area.
==
Oryx, August 17-20, 2023.
Russia - 80, Ukraine - 52.
Ukraine destroyed twice as many tanks, and, as usual, twice as much artillery.
The difference between heavy and light armored vehicles is striking. Ukraine destroyed 5 times more heavy ones, Russia destroyed 5 times more light ones.
This is due to the difference in tactics - Ukraine is advancing with light infantry groups.
And also with what I have talked about many times - Russia has very few light armored vehicles like “Tiger” and “Typhoon”, instead of them you have to use ordinary “KamAZ”, “URAL” and “UAZ”, therefore, in the category “trucks” Russia also always has more losses.
Tanks:
Russia - 18
Ukraine - 9
BMP, BMD and other armored fighting vehicles (tracked, heavy armor):
Russia 24
Ukraine - 5
Armored personnel carrier, MT-LB and other armored vehicles (wheeled or light armor):
Russia - 4
Ukraine - 21
Artillery:
Russia - 13
Ukraine - 7
SAM:
Russia - 2 (9K33 Osa, 9K35 Strela-10)
Ukraine - 2 (two 9K35 “Strela-10”)
Radars, radars and communication systems:
Russia - 1 (antenna module R-431AM for the complex “Redut-2US”)
Ukraine - 1 (radar AN / TPQ-36)
Aviation:
Russia - (2 Ka-52 Alligator helicopter, <1 Tu-22M3 strategic bomber)
Engineering technique:
Russia 2
UAVs (reconnaissance):
Russia - 5
Ukraine - 2
Trucks:
Russia - 9
Ukraine - 5
https://t.me/pilotblog/6153
==
All Russian bombers and many fighter types cannot be built again, as they no longer have the manufacturing capability they had during Soviet times.
==
Video of Prigozhin in Africa. “Africa will be liberated” ... or something. Much activity on military airfields in West African countries. Shaping up to be Wagners agains the West African Coalition.
==
New mobilization:
Will be happening during Putin’s reelection.
==
UK Intelligence said Russia creating a new army in the Kherson Region - the 18th Combined Arms Army (18 CAA). This will include other groups in the area including the 22nd Army Corps.
It will consist mostly of Mobniks, focused on Defense in the south. Experienced troops will go to key sectors.
==
Clashes between FSB and RGF. FSB wants to get rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov, along with a massive mobilization to escalate Russian power at the front.
The new generation of the FSB is not even close or comparable to the old KGB.
==
Surprisingly, Peskov the Kremlin spokesclown, after saying that Russian elections are not really democratic, has disappeared.
==
Ukrainian GUR confirms it has eliminated 5 Russian planes on Russian military airfields.
==
Ukraine Independence Day Parade of Russian destroyed vehicles will happen soon.
Video of the destruction of a Russian convoy near Klishchiivka yesterday, but from a different angle.
At 01:12, you can see an interesting moment when a Russian tank opens fire on its own armoured vehicles in the chaos.
https://t.me/pilotblog/6154
FSB officers were told that Russia could lose a city in the Zaporizhzhia region
We are talking about Tokmak, the FSB officer, who is now there, told us. According to him, in the coming days, all his colleagues will be evacuated from the city.
“At first they said that they would be sent to Melitopol, now they said that we were going to the Crimea. We are leaving in three days, ”said our interlocutor.
He also confirmed our insider that the Ukrainian army broke through towards Tokmok and got a chance to take the city under its control.
According to the FSB officer, the authorities told him and his colleagues that our troops could lose Rabotino at any moment, and in this case, “Tokmok would be difficult to save.”
At the same time, the military refuse to talk about the possible loss of Rabotino.
One of our interlocutors at the General Staff admitted that the situation is difficult, and part of the settlement is occupied by enemy troops.
At the same time, he refused to give forecasts about what would happen to Rabotino, and he also did not want to talk about the possible loss of the village.
==
After the loss of Luna-25, Rogozin fled to the front and does not answer calls
After the loss of communication with the Luna-25 space station, the former head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, disappeared from the radar.
We wrote that he could be detained as part of the investigation of this disaster.
Moreover, the current head of Roskosmos, Yuri Borisov, does not shine as much as possible, although in closed conversations he hints that the reason for the loss of Luna is large-scale theft.
The cost of the project has increased by 8 times in 10 years.
On the day of the official confirmation of the loss of the Luna-25 station, Rogozin published a video from the front [ see below ], where he, as part of a group, inflicts fire damage on the enemy from a makeshift installation.
According to our information, Rogozin was indeed at the front, but 2 weeks ago. Then no one saw him - neither in Moscow, nor in Rostov, nor in the Donbass. It was not possible to reach him. Telegram posts are published by his assistant.
Sources hint that the former head of Roskosmos decided to wait out the storm and try to exonerate himself of the cosmic shame that took place.
Probably, he will try to make the current leadership of Roskosmos guilty. Like, they launched the station. Here is the demand from them.
Would the President accept such an explanation? There are doubts. Although Rogozin is much closer to Vladimir Vladimirovich than Borisov. In any case, it was.
Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the military-technical center “Tsar’s Wolves”
Comrade soldiers of the Russian Army! Especially for you, we are publishing a video instruction for loading the 25-mm cannon M242 Bushmaster BMP “Bradley”. In Russian.
The instructors of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were sent by us to Bandera , but we are sure that the trophy record will come in handy after you capture another infantry fighting vehicle of the specified type. (Video)
==
Vasylivka, Zaporozhye region. Early morning.
Fire on the Armed Forces of Ukraine from a self-made rocket launcher “Grad-Partizan”.
We arrived, unloaded, loaded, fired and changed position. Five minutes later they collected again, charged, fire ...
“Wandering fire” from a pack of “Royal Wolves”.
Or, as they say, “need for inventions is cunning.”
By the way, I’ll tell the skeptics separately how, with such a homemade product, the fighters manage to provide an accurate shot at a distance of up to 20 km.
https://t.me/rogozin_do/4648
...
Yesterday Putin held meetings with representatives of the leadership of the power and military blocs. During the conversation with the military, the president was briefed on the situation at the front, presenting everything in an optimistic light.
Allegedly, the offensive of the Russian troops in the Kupyansk direction is going according to plan and there will be results soon, while the offensive of the Ukrainian troops is effectively restrained in other sectors of the front.
The military leadership acknowledged the attacks on military airfields in Russia and even announced the damage to four aircraft, but at the same time they reported that more than 97% of the attacks by unmanned aerial vehicles were repulsed, and this, in their opinion, is an excellent result.
Putin listened to the reports, asked a few questions and closed the meeting. During the meeting with representatives of the leadership of the power bloc, a wide range of problems was discussed, but the president did not give clear recommendations, orders on any of the issues, and even practically did not express his own opinion.
As a result, the president closed the meeting, leaving all participants deeply disappointed.
Putin managed to disappoint not only the security forces, but also Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
We have already reported that Erdogan refuses to accept the double of the Russian president in Turkey and offers to meet on Russian territory, but only personally with Putin.
Putin is so bad that there is no confidence in the possibility of holding any lengthy negotiations, and he naturally does not want to show weakness in front of Erdogan.
Therefore, the topic of the announced but suspended personal negotiations between the presidents of Russia and Turkey greatly disappointed Erdogan, who was the main initiator of these negotiations.
🔥 Russia: Giant fire at a chemicals warehouse in Noginsk, Moscow region. On fire is an area of 4,300㎡ - 1.06 acres. Helicopters already dumped over 345 tons of water in 69 runs as of 4 hours ago.
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1693703547832107176
https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1694058085503959542
Slight damage?
What does BRICS de-dollarization mean in practice?
Simply that Russia has to take Rupees and Yuan for their oil, instead of getting dollars.
Ukrainian Beaver drone just struck a high rise building. Regardless of damage, pretty spectacular video. Putin will be furious, as this is happening pretty much every night now.
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1694159495008542808
ISW, 22 Aug 2023:
“Russian forces appear to be concentrating their limited available reinforcements from elsewhere in the theater in the Orikhiv direction in western Zaporizhia Oblast...
…ISW previously assessed that the lateral redeployment of elements of the 7th VDV Division to the Robotyne area suggested that Ukrainian forces had severely degraded Russian forces in the area, and the possible commitment of elements of all three of its air assault regiments may suggest the further deterioration of the Russian situation in the area.
…Ukrainian offensive operations in other sectors of the front remain important because they can fix Russian units in place and prevent further lateral reinforcements.. Sound campaign design requires balancing between weighting a decisive main effort and avoiding allowing the enemy to concentrate all reserves on stopping a single obvious thrust…
…The Ukrainian advance in the Robotyne area brings Ukrainian forces closer to launching operations against second lines of defense that may be relatively weaker than the first Russian defensive line in the area. ISW has not observed any new Russian formations or units arrive in western Zaporizhia Oblast beyond the lateral transfer of the elements of (units already committed along other sectors of the front)…
…Russian forces deployed to the wider western Zaporizhia Oblast operational direction have been defending against Ukrainian counteroffensives since the start of the counteroffensive without rotation. Russian forces do not appear to have uncommitted regular units in Zaporizhia Oblast…. it remains possible that some yet unobserved and uncommitted elements may occupy positions at secondary lines of defense (but what they have seen at the secondary lines, have been elements of the units on the primary lines, indicating that remnants of those units would just fall back to the secondary lines, if needed).
…The likely lack of Russian operational reserves, together with the limited lateral transfers to western Zaporizhia Oblast and (the lack of) observed separate uncommitted units at second lines of defense, suggests that second lines of Russian defense may be significantly less heavily defended. The Russian formations and units currently occupying secondary lines of defense are largely unknown at this time, however, and ISW offers this assessment with low confidence.”
