*The Senate seat is very likely to go Republican.*
Dream on.
If your analysis were correct, JD Vance would not have won his senate seat.
On the whole, Ohio has for two decades drifted more and more out of the Democrat party orbit.
Abortion is a unique rallying cry for the Left. It is ominous but Republicans and Conservatives in Ohio should not give up.
They can win as the Vance victory showed along with 2016 and 2020 victories by Trump.