Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4172291/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
“More than three decades after Reagan left office, most Republicans still believe that America is a force for good.”
Ukraine: military situation update - Aug 2, 2023
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
==
——> Russia Hammers Key Ukrainian Inland Port Of Izmail <——
The port of Izmail, on the Danube River right across from Romania, is the latest grain infrastructure to be attacked by Russian drones.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-hammers-key-ukrainian-inland-port-of-izmail
==
——> ATACMS Ballistic Missile Fired In Australia For The First Time <——
The ATACMS launch down under comes as Australia is set to buy the missiles and as the U.S. builds up Pacific-facing strike capabilities.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/atacms-ballistic-missile-fired-in-australia-for-the-first-time
Excerpts:
The ATACMS missile is currently the longest-range surface-to-surface weapon in full operation service in either the Army or the Marine Corps.
However, the Army is moving to replace it with a newer and much longer range design known as the Precision Strike Missile (PrSM), the initial variants of which are expected to be able to hit targets at least around 500 kilometers (403 miles) away, if not further.
The Army is planning to acquire additional PrSM variants or derivatives with the ability to hit targets out to ranges of 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) or more, as well as ones with additional seekers allowing them to engage moving threats like large ships.
The PrSM is designed to be fired from the same launchers as ATACMS. This, in turn, would make it relatively easy for the Marines, and other existing and future MLRS/HIMARS and ATACMS operators like Australia, to field these weapons, as well.
The Army’s Pacific-facing 17th Field Artillery Brigade is a centerpiece in these efforts and already includes the first unit the service expects to arm with its Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles.
[ With only 4,000 made, some fired in combat and some in training, the US has only around 3,000 remaining ATACMS. Giving some to Ukraine would severely limit efforts in any Pacific war. ]
Lockheed Martin is still making ATACMS missiles, but for export customers like Australia. What capacity the company might have right now to fulfill significant rush orders for Ukraine is unknown.
==
——> Pilots Are Seeing Some Very Strange Things In Arizona’s Military Training Ranges <——
U.S. fighter jets are having worrisome aerial encounters in Arizona’s restricted air combat training areas, which fits with a broader trend.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/pilots-are-seeing-some-very-strange-things-in-arizonas-military-training-ranges
Excerpts:
Encounters with small unidentified “objects,” sometimes in swarm-like groups of as many as eight. Sightings of other objects, including some characterized as drones, flying at altitudes up to 36,000 feet and as fast as Mach 0.75.
Another apparent small drone actually hitting the canopy of an F-16 Viper causing damage. These incidents and many more, all occurred in or around various military air combat training ranges in Arizona since January 2020.
Radars and other sensors may be part of another possible emerging trend based on what we’re seeing from the FAA logs and newly released HATR reports. This has to do with the sensitivity of the F-35’s sensor suite coupled with its immense data fusion capabilities.
The War Zone has previously pointed out that a growing number of UAP reports from Navy pilots in the past two decades may well be tied, at least in part, to the introduction of newer, more sensitive active electronically scanned array (AESA) radars to the mix through the fielding of later block F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter jets and the new E-2D Hawkeye airborne early warning and control aircraft.
Especially without having more details about the final investigations into these incidents, this also raises questions about whether advanced sensors suites on the F-35 and other U.S. military aircraft may also be picking up things and not necessarily categorizing them correctly, in at least some instances.
If nothing else, the publicly available FAA logs together with the newly released Air Force data point to an increasing number of worrisome and potentially dangerous encounters with drones and other unidentified aerial objects.
This includes ones that are clearly a very real hazard, as proven by the mid-air collision between the F-16 and the drone, in heavily trafficked military airspace in Arizona.
There is evidence that facilities outside of the continental United States and overseas are noticing this general trend, as well.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ New Ukrainian Drones Catch Russians Completely Off Guard | Russian Air Defense Helpless ]
••Day 525: Aug 02
Today there are a lot of updates.
First of all, today, multiple sources confirmed that Ukrainians advanced in the Luhansk region.
If previously, Ukrainians just localized the Russian breakthrough and pushed them from the most recently taken positions, then right now, Ukrainians cut the Russian bridgehead into 2 halves and are predominantly focused on eliminating the norther group.
Ukrainian fighters that operate in the vicinity of Tverdokhlibove released a video showing one of the storming operations.
The fighters reported that they were conducting reconnaissance in the region when they spotted a well-fortified Russian position.
The commander of the unit evaluated the situation and decided to engage.
The element of surprise played a major role, as Russians failed to organize a coherent response.
As a result, Russians lost 10 soldiers killed in action and had dozens wounded.
The Ukrainian reconnaissance unit, in turn, had no losses.
It seems like Ukrainians successfully capitalized on the Russian problems with logistics and almost completely eliminated the Russian bridgehead in front of Karmazynivka.
Judging by the reported intensity of Ukrainian artillery strikes on the Russian bridgehead in front of Raihorodka, Ukrainians are aiming to reduce this salient next.
When it comes to the southern front, there are a lot of interesting developments.
2 days ago, the Israeli ship Ams1 successfully broke through the Russian blockade of the Black Sea and entered the Ukrainian branch of the Danube River, despite threats from Russia.
Later, 2 more ships with Greek and Turkish-Georgian registrations ran the Russian blockade.
It was reported that the safe passage of these vessels is being ensured by the American anti-ship patrol aircraft.
Russian forces decided not to risk a direct confrontation and sent 2 warships to prevent other ships from following suit.
Ukrainians responded yesterday by conducting a strike with marine kamikaze drones.
The situation became tricky for the Russians, and they decided to conduct a last-minute strike on the Ukrainian harbor in Izmail.
As a result, Russians destroyed an absolutely enormous amount of grain that was prepared for export.
It was reported that Russians destroyed 40,000 tons of grain and a refueling station.
The latest reports suggest that the ships turned around as there was no cargo anymore, so, unfortunately, the Russian strike on civilian infrastructure was successful.
In the meantime, Ukrainians continue destroying Russian military bases and logistics.
First of all, more information became available about yesterday’s drone strike on Sevastopol.
The footage of the explosion was quickly geolocated, and the analysts concluded that the explosion happened on the Russian rocket base number 3413.
Some sources released satellite footage of the base made prior to the strike.
Based on the available imagery, Russians had a lot of rockets for air defense systems S-300, Strila, and Buk.
That is why the explosion was quite powerful and not characteristic of a mere drone crush, and the smoke on the site, of course, was not from the burning grass.
Today, Ukrainians conducted another successful strike on Crimea.
The target became a huge Russian military base near Hvardiiske.
What is interesting is that Ukrainians tried to break through the Russian air defense in this region for a long time and may as well have more than a dozen attempts.
It seems like, after the recent broad drone strike on the peninsula, Ukrainians finally developed the best possible trajectory and passed through the Russian air defense.
Russian analysts claimed that Ukrainians used a completely new type of drone that they still haven’t identified.
Ukrainians reportedly already used these drones in a previous successful strike on Rozdolne.
However, some sources speculated that the strike was conducted by the ballistic missile S-200 or Hrim-2, and the drones were just a decoy.
In any case, judging by the explosion, Ukrainians blew up another ammunition depot.
This is already 7th Russian military base in Crimea that Ukrainians destroyed just over the last month.
The success of the campaign, to a large extent, depended on the seemingly unsuccessful broad drone strikes.
As it turned out, Ukrainians were achieving 2 objectives at the same time: creating a map of Russian air defense systems and forcing Russians to relocate their air defense away from certain bases in response to these decoy attacks.
Once Ukrainians saw that Russians accommodated to the broad strikes, they unexpectedly changed their tactic, used a smaller number of drones, different models of drones, and modified trajectories, allowing them to break through the air defense and destroy Russian ammunition depots.
••Vuhledar:
UA took 3+ linear km.
==
Germany’s Bilt:
They expect the war to continue for 2-3 years. Russia may mobilize 2 million troops.
This new mobilization will be electronic, with more severe penalties for dodging, and so will be more effective than the previous one.
The Russian elite still think these mobilizations will break the war in their favor and take Kiev, for example.
However, lacking training these new troops will not fight well.
But that is the tradition, going back to the Russian Empire, to waste as many lives as possible to achieve some goal.
The trouble of all the Western ‘peace plans’ is that no matter what is agreed to, Putin can just cancel it and continue the war. Further, any such plan now would only lead to greater war and even with NATO.
Russia would use any pause to make more weapons, train more soldiers, make more effective training and plans before resuming the war.
Putin will continue the war as long as he is alive.
NATO has two options: To see Putin as the new Tyrant who need to be quash and do all in, or to negotiate some sort of peace, which will eventually be voided by Putin, and the war resumed on one pretext or another.
Ukraine cannot go into Russia according to their West, making this a very strange war.
Given how easily Prigozhin got to Moscow with only a handful of troops, 5% of Ukrainians troops could have got to and taken Moscow in less time than Prigozhin’s march.
This would have saved a lot of lives.
Wars historically end on the territory of the enemy/invader.
So Ukraine should take Western Russia to win.
==
WSJ: Ukraine may prepare future big drone strike on the Russian Federation, using Ukrainian made drones and weapons.
==
Ukraine 3-D prints some parts of drone-dropped bombs.
==
Russian Lancelot drones use Czech-made motors.
==
F-16 training for Ukrainian pilots was due to start in August, but US has yet to approve final plan - CNN
The US cannot authorize a training schedule, approve the transfer of equipment and materials for the F-16, since the Biden administration has not yet received final proposals from European partners. Bureaucracy kills
https://t.me/pilotblog/5696
Since European countries have not received training materials, they have not made any proposals, but the US has not received any proposals, so the US has not sent any materials. Round and round they go, while people die needlessly.
==
Wagner forces photoshopped a guy appearing to be on the Polish border, hinting they were already in Poland, but on reversing the image, the guy turns out to be a Polish soldier on the border. The shoulder flag and the patch were both photoshopped onto the real image.
==
The US will consolidate arms packages to Ukraine with those for Taiwan to get around the small group of isolationist GOP Congressmen.
==
Third World countries that have relied on Ukrainian grain to feed their people, are growing more and more unhappy with Russia. Now, with there loss of 40,000 tons and the damaged port infrastructures, there will be little grain exported by ship, driving prices way up.
Grain prices in the world rose by 6.5% overnight, after the Russian attack on the port of Izmail in Odesa region - Reuters.
Analysts report that as of August 1, due to the disruption of the grain agreement, grain exports from Ukraine decreased by 40% for the month compared to June.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5695
==
Overall effectiveness of Ukrainian air defense is 70.6%. Good, but not good enough. UA calculates they need 12 Patriot systems deployed in Ukraine to be more effective against Oniks and Kinzal missiles.
The number of cases of domestic violence in Russia increased by 10%. And these are just the reported cases.
Since the beginning of this year, domestic violence in the territory of the Russian Federation began to be recorded much more often than a year earlier.
This information from the reports of the Ministry of Internal Affairs is at the disposal of “Snuffbox”.
These include domestic violence, grievous bodily harm and murder.
At the same time, the Ministry of Internal Affairs notes that the data show growth, even despite the departure of more than two million people over the past year.
In simple words, the density of cases of domestic violence has increased by much more than 10%.
The reason in the ministry is unofficially called the return of the wounded military and fighters of PMC Wagner from the NVO zone, who were poisoned to the war from prison bunks.
Also, off the record, we were told that the police have an unspoken attitude not to pay attention to veterans and their misdeeds.
Conditionally: domestic brawl is the business of the family, not the police.
Therefore, wives, mothers and children, by and large, can only rely on themselves.
Separately, we are promised to provide statistics on the deaths of men from low-quality alcohol. It is hinted that the figures are also very unpleasant in terms of dynamics for the year.
t.me/kremlin_secrets /2032
Bloomberg: The European Union has agreed to impose additional sanctions against Belarus. The EU supported plans to expand the ban on the export of highly sensitive goods and technologies that contribute to the military-technical development of Belarus. The export of firearms, ammunition, and goods and technologies used in the aviation and space industries is also prohibited.
==
Reuters: According to one Ukrainian sapper, the Russians mine everything: doors, boxes, crates and even toys.
“They know that our medical evacuation teams raise the wounded and the dead, under which they then find explosives,” says Vladimir.
Anesthesiologist Alexander from the 128th brigade says that five or six wounded were brought in, and most of them turned out to be sappers.
The territory is mined so heavily that even one step to the side can already end fatally.
To protect the sappers, Ukraine launched the production of special boots.
This is an analogue of the Canadian prototype. Shoes raise the foot of a soldier above the ground with the help of four legs
Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin had a difficult telephone conversation with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
All the rumors that preceded this conversation, they say, Putin is avoiding negotiations, does not want to answer Erdogan’s requests for an urgent telephone conversation, are not true.
The parties negotiate most of the issues without the presidents meeting in person, and Putin is simply not in a position to ignore Erdogan’s proposals for a telephone conversation.
Yesterday, during a conversation with the Russian President, Erdogan raised several pressing issues.
The Turkish President was interested in the possibility of Russia’s return to the grain deal, the prospects for gray imports, and energy infrastructure projects.
Putin tried to start bargaining from a position of offended grandeur, but very quickly found himself in the role of a petitioner.
The negotiations themselves can be characterized as a reconciliation of the positions of the parties on the eve of personal negotiations.
It was in the agreements on personal negotiations that the parties did not reach a consensus.
Erdogan proposes to quickly, literally in the coming days, meet in Turkey, discuss everything and, if possible, agree.
Putin, for health reasons, cannot now make international visits and personally take part in long and exhausting negotiations, and he does not dare to send his double to be “torn apart” by such an experienced politician as Erdogan.
Therefore he delays the decision by offering later dates for face-to-face negotiations at the end of September - the beginning of October, when it will be possible to sufficiently prepare an understudy or, if there is an improvement in well-being, take part in the negotiations yourself.
In general, we agreed to agree on dates in the near future, but the main trump cards at this stage are in the hands of Erdogan and his position and demands for personal negotiations in the shortest possible time look more convincing.
Putin will very likely have to somehow get out by sending an insufficiently prepared double or go against Erdogan, and this is already fraught with consequences.
The double of the President of Russia continues to improve, taking part in various events on behalf of Putin. Yesterday, the understudy took part in the ceremony of presenting state awards.
After listening to numerous praises and compliments during the ceremony, the doppelganger frankly blossomed.
He perceives flattery towards the president in his address and even boasts of it.
The meeting with members of the Government, which the understudy held yesterday via videoconference, in general, is already a passing event for him, where he stopped being shy and hushed up.
True, the members of the government, this is not Erdogan, if he feels a catch, he can make a big scandal.