Ukraine: military situation update - July 30, 2023
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Operation Armageddon | Ukrainians Destroy Russian Bridges & Raze Their Bases to The Ground ]
••Day 522: Jul 30
Today there is a lot of news from the south.
First of all, Ukrainian forces continued demolishing Russian military logistics and conducted a missile strike on the Crimean bridges.
This time the target of the strike became the bridges in the northern part of Crimea.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Chonhar bridge.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukrainians launched 12 Storm Shadow missiles and that Russians managed to intercept every single one of them.
Russian analysts expressed extreme skepticism about such claims, and asked how the Russian air defense was unable to shoot down just a couple of missiles when Ukrainians were blowing up one ammunition depot after another over the last 2 weeks.
Interestingly, Russian sources still have not published any footage confirming that the bridge is intact.
In turn, Russian sources reported that the traffic was stopped, and the Russian military restricted access to the Chonhar bridge.
It seems like after the previous strike on the Chonhar Bridge when the locals and journalists immediately flooded the area and filmed everything from all possible angles, the Russian military took measures to react to such developments faster.
Judging by the lack of footage, they implemented these measures successfully, which allowed the Defense Ministry to claim that all rockets were shot down and the bridge remained intact, despite the mysterious traffic jams.
By the way, the timing of the missile strike is not accidental.
If you still remember, after the strike on the road bridge in Kerch, all traffic went through the Zaporizhzhia region, creating traffic jams and sending a shock through the Russian logistics.
Russian forces on the zero line very soon felt this shock in the form of shortages of ammunition, especially artillery shells, which to a great extent, facilitated the Ukrainian breakthroughs that we discussed over the last week.
As the traffic normalized and Russians restored partial movement on the Kerch bridge, Ukrainians struck the Crimean logistics from the other side.
Such developments once again caused massive disruptions of the supply lines, as many cars and trucks now have to take a detour and hamper the movement of military supplies to the front.
On top of that, a day prior, Ukrainians conducted another Short Shadow missile strike on the 5th Russian base in Crimea.
This time the target became Kremniivka, where Russians have the facilities for repairing damaged equipment.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainians used at least 3 cruise missiles, all of which reached their destination.
This is already the second destroyed reparation base in Crimea, which means that the ability of Russians to substitute damaged tanks and armored fighting vehicles on the front will suffer a lot.
Moreover, two days ago, explosions were reported in Sevastopol.
Some sources speculated that this was yet another attempt to destroy the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
Later, the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate reported that saboteurs set explosives against a Russian ammunition depot in Kozacha Bay near Sevastopol.
And it looks like it’s true because locals reported primary and secondary detonations.
Today Ukrainians also conducted a drone strike.
Russian sources reported that the scale of the strike was quite small because Ukrainians launched just 3 drones.
Russian analysts warned that this marks the beginning of the preparation for the next large-scale drone strike.
The analysts pointed out that Ukrainians launched these 3 drones from different airfields, even though all of them targeted the same area, which is quite strange and can only mean that Ukrainians are testing Russian air defense to identify the weak spots.
In the meantime, the Russian Fleet is trying to assert its presence in the Black Sea to prevent commercial ships from entering Ukrainian harbors and effectively block the export of whatever grain was left after the Russian strikes.
Interestingly, the Russian ships immediately started suffering from the attacks of marine kamikaze drones.
Russian sources reported that one of their warships was attacked by 2 drones.
Even though the ship reportedly remained intact, such strikes increase the risk of losing more ships, actively discouraging Russians from more aggressive movement and confirm that Ukrainian forces are still exerting some control over the Black Sea and limiting Russian mobility.
••In the East, all lost territory was regained, as the Russians were pushed all the way back.
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Denys hints that the shut down of Starlink systems by Russia using special tech, using information that could only have come from the US and that Russia must have allies in the Starlink program.
However, the Pentagon ordered special antennas that can’t be operated or restricted by Musk. These antennas have been in the field for quite awhile.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5636
==
According to British media and others, UA Special Forces are in the UK training to enter & de-occupy Crimea.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5639
But other things will have to happen before that can be done, like the UA penetrating Russian defenses and going to the border of Crimea.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5643
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Germany may be getting ready to approve the transfer of Taurus LR cruise missiles to Ukraine. [ They are bridge busters. ] They may have to wait until the US approves ATACMS for transfer.
==
Wagners:
The Suwaki region of Poland is heavily forested with soft ground. From the Belarusian border to Kaliningrad is 68km across rugged ground with no direct roads. Poland and Lithuania are aware of the possibility of Wagners attempting to penetrate the border and have reinforced the troops in the area.
The Wagners’ mission is to destabilize NATO in Poland with small sabotage acts. But, Poland has rapidly militarized since the invasion began and expanded their armed forces, with a further 100% expansion planned.
Moscow will seriously strengthen the air defense system: how many enemy drones will be shot down
One of the deputies of Sergei Sobyanin told us about the strengthening with reference to the military.
“The latest attacks on Moscow were too serious. New air defense systems are being brought to the capital and the Moscow region.
“They promise that they will shoot down at least 80% of drones and missiles, if, God forbid, missiles fly at us. And this is if the attack is large-scale, and the enemy launches a dozen or more drones.
“If there are several of them, then, hopefully, they will all be shot down,” he said.
Despite this increase, the official urged Muscovites to be careful. “The enemy is preparing very dangerous attacks. Our requests to find a bomb shelter closest to the house are still relevant,” he stressed.
The military confirmed to us that additional air defense systems were being brought to Moscow. They refused to give details.
==
Kremlin snuffbox
What to do now and when will it be really dangerous? Three things to know about the Moscow City strike
About another drone attack on Moscow, as a result of which drones flew to Moscow City and damaged buildings there, we must say the following:
First, we warned about such attacks the day before.
The enemy is “shooting” around the capital, identifying promising targets for himself, checking our air defense.
“They are still trying to mock us. They arrange symbolic attacks, try to hit some iconic objects. So that everyone discusses that there are no protected places in Moscow, and the enemy can get anywhere.
“The city, therefore, can “fly” anywhere,” our source in the General Staff said about this.
This time, he said, there were no casualties.
The scale of the destruction is being established, the explosions reached several ministries and damaged “important property and documents,” the source said.
Secondly, we need to thank our air defense. The drones that flew to Moscow are quite difficult to shoot down, but the air defense dealt with them this time.
“In the case of a larger attack, of course, it will not be possible to shoot down and land everything with electronic warfare, but all the same, if five drones and 25 drones hit the target, there is a difference.
“Both in terms of casualties and destruction,” he told us about this one of the deputies of Sergei Sobyanin.
With reference to the military, he claims that additional air defense systems will soon be transferred to the capital from other regions of the country, and the transfer process is actively underway.
Thirdly, everyone who reads us already knows this information , but we will repeat it.
The most dangerous period for Moscow now is August and early September. Attacks will definitely be more massive.
The only way to protect yourself is to be careful and find the nearest shelter to your house.
And, if not, demand that the authorities open a bomb shelter.
The mayor’s office is waiting for signals from citizens and is ready to open new bomb shelters throughout Moscow, the main thing is to contact the authorities.
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/2576
==
Kremlin snuffbox
In Sevastopol, in one of the barracks, nine sailors of the Black Sea Fleet were mysteriously killed
Their bodies were found on Friday 28 July. They decided to hide the fact of the mass death of sailors so as not to interfere with the celebration of the Day of the Russian Navy. This decision was made jointly by the command of the Black Sea Fleet and the Sevastopol Governor Mikhail Razvozhaev.
According to our sources in the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet and in the government of Sevastopol, the tragedy occurred on Friday night. Unknown people entered one of the barracks and killed nine sailors who were in one of the rooms. All the dead were slaughtered in their sleep.
The main version of the crime is the actions of saboteurs, who not for the first time vilely kill our military in the Crimea. There is a search for the culprits.
According to another version, the dead sailors were avenged for some kind of insult or conflict on a domestic basis. But this is unlikely, since the criminals acted too professionally and in cold blood.
All the victims were from different regions of Russia. Their bodies were secretly sent home from Sevastopol - to the regions from St. Petersburg to the Krasnodar Territory.
==
Kremlin snuffbox
Putin has decided to ban the dollar and the euro in Russia. What will happen now?
We wrote that in early July the President took the initiative to completely ban dollars and euros in Russia due to the depreciation of the ruble. Two sources in the Central Bank told us how the situation with this requirement and things in the foreign exchange market as a whole.
Putin has changed his mind about introducing a ban on dollars and euros and criminal liability for possession and operations with currency. Specialists persuaded him, plus, because of the possibility of introducing such a ban, three deputies of Elvira Nabiullina were going to quit at once. Therefore, the president decided to abandon such a drastic step.
At the same time, the situation in the foreign exchange market, sources say, remains unstable. The exchange rate of the ruble, among other things, is under pressure from sanctions, Russia’s international isolation, and the unpredictable situation at the front.
Economists also call too high budget expenditures a big problem - by the way, spending to help our African partners will be added to them in the near future. If the situation does not change, until the end of autumn, the dollar may cost about 120 rubles, the euro - more than 130 rubles. Following this, unfortunately, prices will rise seriously.
To prevent such a fall in the ruble exchange rate and price increases, experts advise saving. In particular, cut funding for the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.
Recall that the president is ready to limit funding for new territories and was going to do this in the fall. But economists warn that it may be too late, and suggest that a decision be made as early as August. At the same time, they propose to reduce funding for these regions by at least 50-60%.
The President took time to think about this issue. A decision is expected in about two weeks.
And there it is, your regular-as-a-clock contribution to Speedy’s daily vomit of rage. I am still trying to figure out if you are his girlfriend or just his other handle. Will you enlighten me?
“According to our sources in the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet and in the government of Sevastopol, the tragedy occurred on Friday night. Unknown people entered one of the barracks and killed nine sailors who were in one of the rooms. All the dead were slaughtered in their sleep.”
Nine good Ruzzians.
“Economists also call too high budget expenditures a big problem”
Running out of money to spend.
Sounds like harsh cutbacks are fixing to start, which will start breaking things.