Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4170183/posts
Calling someone a RuZZian on FR is considered an insult.
Calling someone a Comrade on FR is considered an insult.
Summarizing this war:
A tragedy for Ukraine.
A disaster for RuZZia.
A strategic win for the USA. The biggest winner of the war.
Ukraine: military situation update - July 24, 2023
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
Excerpts:
Even as it is making slow, incremental progress in its counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast and Donbas, Ukraine is finding that it now also has to defend territory it recaptured last Fall.
“The enemy continues to focus its main efforts on the Kupyansk, Lyman, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Mariansk directions, heavy battles continue,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar said Monday on her Telgram channel.
“In the Kupyansk direction, the enemy during the week actively conducted assaults with the aim of pushing our units beyond the barrier line of the Oskil River and searched for weak points in our defense. At the moment, the fighting continues, but our defenders are firmly holding their positions.”
The fighting near the Oskil comes a week after Ukrainian military officials claimed that Russia had amassed more than 100,000 troops and 900 tanks in that part of the battlefield.
“Russia’s Western Group of forces is likely trying to advance back to the Oskil River in order to create a buffer zone around Luhansk Oblast, the possession of which Russia almost certainly considers one of its most fundamental objectives of the war,” the U.K. MoD said in a Tweet on Sunday.
Elsewhere on that part of the front, Russian forces are continuing attacks to clear the Serebryansk Forest, said Maliar. In Bakhmut, she said Ukrainian forces “continue to advance there gradually but confidently. The most brutal battles continue in the area of Klishchiivka, Andriivka, Kurdyumivka.”
Meanwhile, as Ukrainian forces push south in Zaporizhzhia Oblast toward Berdyansk and Melitopol, they’ve liberated 12.7 square kilometers this week and nearly 200 square kilometers since the counteroffensive began early last month.
==
——> Ukraine Strikes Back With Drone Attacks On Moscow, Crimea <——
Russia claimed two drones were brought down over Moscow, while Ukraine also launched a barrage of drones against targets in Crimea.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-strikes-back-with-drone-attacks-on-moscow-crimea
Reporting from Ukraine:
Narrated by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.
Translated into 18+ languages.
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others. Note: 07/13/23, YT now requires sign in to view content of this site.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Huge Success | Critical Damage! Russian Military Crippled. Strike on Russian Ministry of Defense! ]
••Day 516: Jul 24
Today there is a lot of important news.
First of all, today, Russian strikes reached the border with Romania.
In an attempt to destroy the last operational Ukrainian harbors, Russian Air Force decided to risk it and target the infrastructure located just 200 meters from Romania.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that multiple critical objects of infrastructure were damaged, including multiple hangars with grain.
The attack prevented the ships from exporting this grain, and now the ships are just staying outside the harbor.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainians used this harbor for launching marine reconnaissance and kamikaze drones into the Black Sea to conduct terrorist attacks, from where these drones attacked the Russian fleet in Sevastopol and the Kerch Bridge.
Ukrainian Air Force finally made a direct response to the strikes on the Odessa region and conducted a drone strike on the building of the Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow.
At least one drone successfully hit the target. [ Sources report GRU servers hit and destroyed. ]
Interestingly, the air defense systems that they placed on the rooftops just 300 meters from the Defense Ministry did not manage to shoot down any drones.
Later, the Russian Defense Ministry made a statement claiming that they used electronic warfare systems instead of air defense and successfully neutralized the drones.
It is true that at least one Ukrainian drone was hijacked by the electronic warfare systems, however, it was redirected into the nearby skyscraper, not neutralized.
But the biggest strikes once again happened in Crimea. Today Ukrainian Air Force blew up already the third major ammunition depot.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that Ukrainians used 17 drones.
While the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that all drones were shot down, it turned out that Ukrainians destroyed 3 hangars with ammunition on the airfield near Vilne and also a maintenance depot in Novostepove.
All objects were conveniently located 2 km from the railway - one of the main Russian supply lines.
Russian analysts once again claimed that, in reality, Ukrainians used Storm Shadow missiles to destroy the targets, it’s just that the Russian Ministry of Defense doesn’t want to admit that Ukrainians ignored their threats of drastic measures if Western weapons are used on the peninsula.
The analysts claim that the drones were there just to distract air defense operators.
Ukrainians also conducted a series of strikes on the mainland.
The first target became Tokmak, the second target was Donetsk, and the third target was Makiivka.
Geolocated footage shows fire in Donetsk and Makiivka.
Judging by the footage, Ukrainians struck a warehouse with equipment or the area of personnel concentration.
If we add to the map previous strikes on the Chonhar and Kerch bridges, and other 2 ammunition depots in Crimea, and continuous strikes on Mariupol, Berdyansk, Melitopol, Tokmak, and nearby towns, we can see that just like during the lengthy Kherson counteroffensive last year, Ukrainians are crippling the Russian logistics, and therefore, gradually undermining the Russian defense.
Russian soldiers report that the level of artillery fire on the zero line is also increasing, especially since Ukrainians started using cluster munitions.
In order to ruin Ukrainian plans, Russian forces tried to launch several offensive operations in the Luhansk region.
By pushing from the opposite end, Russian forces are trying to force Ukrainians to relocate their artillery systems away from Zaporizhzhia and also redeploy their infantry, decreasing Ukrainian offensive capabilities.
So far, Russians made 4 such attempts.
The first attempt happened near Kupiansk.
Here, Russian forces made a big push with the goal of completely clearing the forest and establishing a bridgehead on the other side of the river.
They managed to advance through the forest and even cross the river, however, those Russians that tried to hold the bridgehead were eventually eliminated with artillery fire, and the breakthrough was localized and stifled.
The second attempt happened near Kreminna.
Russian forces launched an attack through the fields towards Torske and even managed to get to the outskirts of the town, however, just like 6 exactly the same attacks that they conducted since winter, Russian forces were undercut from the south because Ukrainians control most of the forest.
The third attempt happened near Novoselivske.
Here, their main goal was to take this settlement because it is located on the hill and pave the way for further advances.
After sustaining high losses, Russians decided to change their tactic and engulf the settlement by advancing through the fields, but it was a bad idea, and the breakthrough was once again localized.
The last attempt happened near Karmazynivka, and so far, it is the most successful one. Russians gradually established control over the forests and penetrated the defense line by around 4 km.
Yesterday, Russian forces reportedly opened another axis of advance from Raihorodka, however, today, it was reported that Russian did not gain any ground, and the situation started to stabilize here as well.
The Spokesman for the Eastern Group of Forces reported that despite the fact that Russians have concentrated up to 100,000 troops in the Luhansk region, so far, the fighters here managed to localize all attempts to collapse the front line and force Ukrainians to distract themselves from the counteroffensive operation in the south.
And the Russian defense there is gradually giving in - over the last several days, Ukrainians advanced by several km in the Orikhiv, Velyka Novosilka, and Bakhmut directions.
But more on that in the next video.
••South of Bakhmut:
UA gained a lot of ground and is almost in Andriivka, Klishchiivka nearly encircled. The village is now almost empty of Orcs. Taking these villages and the high ground, the UA opens the way to Opytne and Odradivka, cutting the supply line to Bakhmut city.
==
China Secretly Sends Enough Gear to Equip an Army
Russia imported 30 times more drones from China than Ukraine - Politico. The amount of deliveries exceeded $100 million.
Also, according to the publication, exports of Kevlar for body armor increased by 69% to more than $225 million, while to Ukraine it decreased by 61% to just $5 million.
During the 17 months of the war, China sold to Russia, in particular, body armor, optical sights for thermal imagers, and drones. All this is used in the war against Ukraine.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5548
==
In Ukraine, the Russian commander of the “Leningrad Regiment”, formed mainly from the mobilized, Colonel Yevgeny Vashunin, died
This was announced by the speaker of the Legislative Assembly of St. Petersburg Alexander Belsky.
https://t.me/pilotblog/5549
==
Finally! The IAEA teams confirm that the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant is mined. Russians turned Reactor #4 to Hot.
How many days in a row have you posted the site Speedy, 200?
Kremlin snuffbox
Where is Vladimir Putin leading Russia, and is there a replacement for him?
In our channel, we rarely talk about those who are usually called the opposition. This post explains the reason in detail.
But something has happened in recent months that deserves to be told. Firstly , it is confirmed that some high-ranking people from the FSB contacted prominent representatives of the Russian opposition.
This coincided with the activation of Chubais, who left Russia, and rumors about his return began to be actively exaggerated in the spring. Chubais, although not a classical opposition, was contacted not only with him. In the list of contacts, for example, Khodorkovsky.
Secondly , Prigozhin’s rebellion showed the real weakness of the current government, and among the so-called liberals there were those who supported the attempt by the owner of PMC Wagner to show his teeth to Vladimir Putin.
“A tectonic change took place in the minds of representatives of that very opposition party. They suddenly realized that it would be possible to change the regime only by force. And when this force appeared, they decided to support it,” one of Khodorkovsky’s associates told us.
According to people close to the liberal party, the first encroachments towards the use of force to change power occurred at a time when very small units of “Russian volunteers” (as the Ukrainian side claims) made a lot of noise in the Belgorod region.
That is, several tens of hundreds capture the regional center, and several thousand armed Wagnerites take Rostov under control in a matter of hours without resistance. The authorities in both cases turned out to be weak and not ready to fight back.
And now the main thing: what is Vladimir Putin doing now?
In recent days, a lot of laws have been adopted that make it clear that Putin has understood that it will not be possible to complete the SVO now - moving on to Plan B.
We ‘re The Kremlin is betting on Trump’s victory in the United States and the weakening of support for Ukraine from the West.
At the same time, external propaganda turned on to the maximum. We wrote about the change in approach to this a few months earlier.
At the same time, Putin personally felt the weakness of the power vertical and will strengthen Zolotov, who is loyal to him, and his National Guard.
Scandals in the army have shown that Shoigu cannot restore order, but Putin cannot yet remove him. But the interlocutors do not rule out that this can happen suddenly.
Can another Prigozhin appear against this background, but who is not afraid to see things through to the end?
Unfortunately, there is no such candidate yet. But there are significant changes in the mood of that same liberal opposition.
Will she unite with the Russians who are fighting on the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
So far, unlikely. But a month and a half ago, this was out of the question.
We are very dynamically approaching the denouement. Now many in power are trying to find a place for themselves “after Putin.” And, preferably, not in the dock.
@kremlin_secrets
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Kremlin snuffbox
Our foreign readers ask - is there an opposition in Russia and why do we write so little about it?
There is opposition in Russia. Weak, exhausted, but there. Yes, most of them left, some went to bunk beds, but in principle, there are about two dozen of its prominent representatives.
Russian oil shipments down significantly since the end of April. Oil prices rose about $5/bbl over the last month or so, after having been stable for several months:
Russian Crude Oil Exports Continue To Plunge
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Russian-Crude-Oil-Exports-Continue-To-Plunge.html
“Russia’s crude oil exports by sea continued to slump last week and are now well below the February levels and nearly 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) lower than the recent peak at the end of April, tanker-tracking data monitored by Bloomberg showed on Tuesday.
Russia’s crude shipments plunged by 311,000 bpd to 2.73 million bpd in the week to July 23, as exports out of the Western ports on the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea crashed to 1.17 million bpd, down by 625,000 bpd from the previous week, according to the data reported by Bloomberg’s Julian Lee.
Crude shipments from the Kozmino port in Russia’s Far East, from where the voyage to top customers China and India is much shorter, rose in the week to July 23, but couldn’t offset the plummeting crude export volumes from Novorossiysk on the Black Sea and Primorsk and Ust-Luga on the Baltic Sea.
So in the week to July 23, nationwide Russian crude exports by sea, at 2.73 million bpd, were 1.48 million bpd lower than the peak seen in the final week of April, according to Bloomberg’s data.
Tanker-tracking data have already started to show in recent weeks that Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports were declining from the highs seen in April and May.”...
...”In early July, Russia said that it would cut its crude oil exports by 500,000 bpd in August in a bid to ensure a balanced market, and the reduction in exports would come from a further 500,000-bpd cut in oil production.
Vessel-monitoring data suggest that Russia has started to reduce supply to the market, which, combined with the Saudi production cut of 1 million bpd in July and August, would tighten market balances.”
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for July 26, 2023:
-Ukraine’s offensive nears the 2 month mark, having failed to breakthrough the security zone along the line of contact and reach the first of several layers of Russian defenses;
-Ukrainian losses are significant, Russia’s Ministry of Defense estimated up to 26,000 casualties as of July 12, 2023, many more have died since;
-Comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicate significant losses throughout the conflict and an inability to properly prepare for the current offensive;
-Ukraine has begun using bombings, drone strikes, and other forms of terrorism deep within Russian territory to compensate for a lack of progress along the line of contact;
-US security assistance packages for Ukraine reflect dwindling capacity to sustain combat in a high-intensity war of attrition;
-Allegations of Chinese support for Russian combat operations by supplying Russian troops with equipment and drones deliberately ignore the fact that Chinese products are making it into the hands of both Russian and Ukrainian soldiers on the free market;
-The Western media framing China as incapable of brokering peace because non-lethal products it makes are on the battlefield in Ukraine ignores Western nations positioning themselves to likewise broker peace (such as France) despite transferring weapons and ammunition to Ukrainian forces;
-With Ukraine’s offensive stalled, it is likely Ukraine’s Western sponsors will be preparing for their next move, be it an intervention of one kind or another, or shifting from Ukraine to the war it is attempting to provoke with China in the Pacific;
Russian forces breaking through in the North.