Ukraine: military situation update - June 27, 2023
Extras:
——> Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Replenishes Kyiv’s Bradley Fighting Vehicle Force <——
With Ukraine facing mounting losses the Pentagon announced Tuesday it is sending another 30 Bradleys and 25 Strykers.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-u-s-replenishes-kyivs-bradley-fighting-vehicle-force
Excerpts:
Another 30 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles and 25 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers will be headed to Ukraine as part of the Pentagon’s latest tranche of aid, valued at up to $500 million.
The package was not expedited as a result of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin’s aborted mutiny, said Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s top spokesman.
To date, Ukraine has seen 10 of 109 Bradley variants already delivered destroyed, two damaged, and another 12 damaged and abandoned, according to the latest figures from the Oryx open source intelligence tracking group. That figure could be higher, because Oryx only tabulates equipment it can visually verify.
Curiously, none of the 100 Strykers provided to Ukraine have been reported damaged, destroyed or abandoned, which could be an indication of just what Kyiv is holding back in its counteroffensive.
He later added that there was no timeline for the delivery of these vehicles.
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——> Belarus Wants Prigozhin’s ‘Wagnerites’ To Train Its Army <——
Lukashenko said battle hardened Wagner troops can train his forces but won’t have any role with Russian-provided nuclear weapons.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/belarus-wants-prigozhins-wagnerites-to-train-its-army
Excerpts:
Three days after ending his attempted mutiny against Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Private Military Corporation, landed in his new home of Belarus, according to the leader of that nation.
Though free from charges connected with the weekend’s aborted ‘march on Moscow,’ he is facing an uncertain future. The troops and equipment he amassed are being prepared for turnover to the Russian Defense Ministry and his role remains murky.
“Yes, indeed, he is in Belarus today,” Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday during a speech after a military promotion ceremony, according to the official Belarusian BelTa news service. However, no images have yet emerged of him there.
Allowing Prigozhin in Belarus raises questions about how he can be contained. What happens next with Wagner, meanwhile, particularly in Africa, is something the Pentagon said it is keeping an eye on.
Lukashenko said he talked Putin into accepting diplomacy instead of military action and negotiated with Prigozhin.
Lukashenko said his first round of discussions with Prigozhin “was spoken for 30 minutes in swear language.”
He added that he told Prigozhin, “you will be crushed halfway like a bug” by Russian forces in any attempt to reach Moscow.
Lukashenko said Prigozhin agreed to stand down in return for security guarantees. Those were offered, the Belarusian President said, after Prigozhin agreed not to harm civilians, stop his march and abandon his demand that Russian President Vladimir Putin get rid of his top two military leaders, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Army Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov.
While Prigozhin could have been killed, Lukashenko argued that would not prove a lasting solution to the question of what to do with his forces, according to BelTa.
“Who is Prigozhin?” Lukashenko asked rhetorically. “He is a very authoritative person today in the armed forces. No matter how much someone would like it. Therefore, I thought: ‘we can kill [him]. I said to Putin: ‘We can kill [Prigozhin].’”
But he opted not to, “because then there will be no negotiations. These guys who know how to stand up for each other, who fought there and in Africa, Asia, Latin America, they will do anything. We can also kill [him] but thousands, thousands of civilians and those who will resist the Wagnerists will die.”
“In no case to make a hero out of me, out of Putin and Prigozhin,” Lukashenko told reporters, saying he and Putin misread the situation and that it didn’t resolve itself until Prigozhin ultimately backed down.
==
——> A-10 Warthog’s Death Looms Larger With New Basing Changes <——
The Air Force is steadily moving ahead with its plans to retire the A-10 for good by 2030, if not before then.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-10-warthog-death-looms-larger-with-new-basing-changes
Excerpts:
The U.S. Air Force has announced formal plans to close out A-10 Warthog ground attack aircraft operations at two bases. F-35A Joint Strike Fighters will take the place of A-10s at one of those locations, while the other will see the arrival of F-16C/D Viper fighters.
This is all in line with the service’s goal of divesting the last A-10s before the end of the decade, if not sooner, something Congress now seems inclined to acquiesce to after decades of blocking such divestments.
It should be noted that these plans may still be subject to change in various ways, especially as move through the environmental impact analysis process. Environmental impact here includes a wide variety of things, including any possible increases in noise pollution.
The F-35 and F-16 are both louder than the A-10 in many contexts. Gowen Field, in particular, is in an urban area, co-located with Boise Airport in Idaho’s capital of the same name. In 2019, Idahoans notably sued the Air Force over its use of urban areas in the southwestern end of the state for training exercises that included aircraft flying overhead.
The Air Force’s press release about the changes coming to Moody says that the service has currently laid out plans to divest a total of 54 A-10s in the next few years. This includes the expected retirement of 42 Warthogs just in Fiscal Year 2024. The service will, of course, need Congress to sign off on this before it can proceed.
The Air Force already has approval to cut 21 A-10s in Fiscal Year 2023, which began on October 1, 2022, and ends on September 30 of this year. As of June 15, the Air Force had already sent eight A-10s to the boneyard at Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Arizona as part of those divestments, according to data from the 309th Aerospace Maintenance and Regeneration Group, which manages that facility.
At the time of writing, the Air Force has around 273 A-10s still in service, spread across active-duty, Air Force Reserve, and Air National Guard squadrons. With the exception of the 25th Fighter Squadron assigned to the 51st Fighter Wing at Osan Air Base in South Korea, all of the remaining Warthog units are in the United States.
Reporting from Ukraine:
Narrated by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny.
Translated into 18+ languages.
Note: other versions of this report are found elsewhere on FR, but this is guaranteed to be the complete transcript - unlike the others.
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
[ Russias Kill Each Other | Footage: Confused Russian Assault Units Kill Each Other ]
••Day 489: Jun 27
Today the biggest news comes from the Kherson region.
Here, Ukrainians continue conducting amphibious operations on the Dnipro River with the goal of developing a bridgehead on the other side of the river, while Russian defense is still weak in the aftermath of the destruction of many Russian fortifications due to flooding.
Geolocated footage shows that day after day, Ukrainians are successfully reinforcing the assault group, and if yesterday Russian sources reported that there were up to 50 Ukrainian soldiers in the region, then today this number increased to 100.
At first, Russians tried to use their aviation to bomb the residential area, and especially the bridge, which Ukrainians are using as their main fortification and shelter. However, the usage of aviation proved to be extremely problematic.
First of all, the munitions are not very precise, which requires more airstrikes or getting closer to the contact line.
And this is impossible because, secondly, Russian sources reported that Ukrainians had redeployed multiple S-300 air defense systems to the towns and villages in the vicinity of this bridgehead.
Some Russian fighters also complained that they could not even use drones, due to the fact that they lost connection half the way towards to bridge because Ukrainians put somewhere electronic warfare systems.
That is why, if Russians wanted to eliminate the enemy bridgehead, they needed to conduct direct ground assaults.
The first Russians assault group tried to use armored fighting vehicles to deliver the assault units directly to the Ukrainian positions.
This did not work very well because Ukrainians had mined the approached to the bridge, so the vehicle got immobilized by the mine, and Russians immediately ran away in all possible directions.
Next, Russians decided to take it into account and drive not all the way to the bridge but just to the first houses. Russian forces used 3 armored personnel carriers to deliver 3 assault squads, 30 troops in total.
Ukrainian reconnaissance drone operators spotted the movement of Russian troops and immediately communicated their coordinates to the Ukrainian artillery crews.
Shortly, the artillery hit the area of the deployment of the Russian troops, inflicting significant losses and putting an end to the planed assault.
The remaining Russian troops dissipated throughout the region and requested support and evacuation.
Unfortunately for Russians, the coordination and communication between the assault units were nonexistent in the aftermath of the artillery strike.
So, when the first Russian group that assumed positions in the forest noticed movement in the residential area, they assumed that this was a Ukrainian counterattack and opened fire at the second group of Russians in the houses.
When the support arrived, the Russian armored fighting vehicle advanced while simultaneously firing precisely at the houses with the Russian airborne unit.
The armored fighting vehicle picked up several wounded soldiers from the other group and drove away.
Judging by the footage, the machine gun fire fired though all the houses along the road.
Given the caliber of the gun, the brick walls of the houses provided as much protection as paper, so Russian forces who successfully got a toehold in the residential area likely suffered heavy losses due to the friendly fire.
Overall, Russian forces proved to be incapable of controlling the islands.
Even though they had a paved road leading right to the residential area, Ukrainians took it under total fire control, not allowing Russians to deliver supplies or rotate troops.
Russian sources reported that using small high-speed boats proved to be extremely effective for the purpose of controlling the river because they were extremely mobile and an impossible target for the Russian artillery.
The only real danger for the Ukrainian boat crews is Russian troops near the river.
With that in mind, we can see that by pushing Russians from these small islands and residential areas, Ukrainians are gradually gaining complete freedom of movement on the river, even without controlling the other bank.
Russians analysts are warning that once Ukrainians push Russians to the mainland, Ukrainians will start looking for a weak spot, and given the length of the front line, the probability that Ukrainians will find one is extremely high.
https://www.youtube.com/@DenysDavydov
Denys says:
[ Big Win | Z-Army runs again and opened the friendly fire ]
••In the east, Russia artillery shelled its own positions near Pisky allowing the UA to advance. Russia’s army gets weaker by the day.
==
Prigozhin went to Mindy to meet Lukashenko for 5 hours. See linked story above.
Many National Guard pilots refused to fire on Prigozhin’s forces and now risk prosecution.
==
Putin in his great wisdom and genius has managed eliminate Russia’s most capable army. Slava Ukraina!!
Putin spouts war statistics from Shoigu who is a creative writer of fiction.
[ Various Pro-Russian sources ran with these number to make many videos, proving the might and superiority of the RGF. Some of which are posted on FR. ]
==
Poznan, Poland will be the supply and repair hub for Abrams tanks.
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Hungry’s Orban says Putin is not a war criminal [ eventhough he is wanted by the international court ], and Ukraine is no longer an independent country because peace depends on the US [ supplying weapons to expel the Russians ].
With those leaders, Hungry has no future in the EU and should be expelled, as well as cut off from all financial aide.
==
A WAPO article on the war says that at the current pace, it will take Ukraine 16 years to liberate all of its territory. And if there is no significant progress, the US will push for peace talks.
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Chia said it has no objection to Ukraine getting all of its territory back including Crimea. [ Same as China getting back its claim on the Russian Far East. ]
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Kirby claims there is no treat to the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant , in contradiction of Zelenski, locals, UA MI, sherifs etc.
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Sergey Lavrov is assuring everyone that Russia is not mining the Plant and has no plans to blow it up, just like he assured everyone that Russia was not going to invade, 3 days before Russia invaded. [ Does this mean that Russia will blow the Plant in 3 days? ]
Zelensky:
He reiterated today the warning below:
He addressed world leaders [ yesterday ] with a warning that Russia is preparing to undermine [ destroy ] the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant.
“Our intelligence received information that Russia is considering a scenario of a terrorist attack at the ZNPP with a release of radiation.
They have prepared everything for this.
Unfortunately, I have repeatedly had occasion to remind that radiation does not know state borders, and who it hits, is determined only by the direction of the wind.
We pass on all available information to our partners, all evidence - Europe, America, China, Brazil, India, Africa, the Arab world - all countries and international organizations should know this.
This time it should not be like with Kakhovskaya [ Nova Kakhovka ]. The world has been warned.”
==
[ Think of this disaster as Chernobyl times 6, only worse as the reactor explosions will be deliberate. This is not hyperbole, over reaction or anything of the sort. Why mine something like this if one does not, at some point, plan to detonate the mines?
Maps of the Chernobyl effected Zones:
http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/commonwealth/chornobyl_radiation96.jpg
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/e0/7d/73/e07d7397c6d629c6f1c6a8e294c31085.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster
##•• It bears repeating: if the Russians and Putin go through with this plan, the release will render Ukraine and several surrounding countries uninhabitable, and if the cloud moves over Europe, it too will become uninhabitable. This will be the worst crisis in all of human history, bar the Mt. Toba eruption 74,000 years ago. ••## ]
