Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4156950/posts
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 30, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
——> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
——> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
——> The True State of Russian Army, The 2nd Best Army in Ukraine <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
——> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
——> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
——> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
——> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
==
——> Rare Russian Variant Of BM-21 Grad Appears To Be Guarding Sevastopol Bay <——
The BM-21PD rocket launcher is specifically designed to help defend against combat divers and other close-in underwater threats.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/rare-russian-variant-of-bm-21-grad-appears-to-be-guarding-sevastopol-bay
==
——> Putin Admits Moscow’s Air Defenses “Need Work” After Multi-Drone Attack <——
Russian officials are describing the complex drone attack as the most serious assault on Moscow since World War II.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/putin-admits-moscows-air-defenses-need-work-after-multi-drone-attack
==
——> Chinese J-16 Seen ‘Head Butting’ U.S. RC-135 In Cockpit Video <——
The encounter between the Chinese J-16 Flanker and the U.S Air Force RC-135 Rivet Joint occurred over the South China Sea.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinese-j-16-seen-head-butting-u-s-rc-135-in-cockpit-video
[ Mission Retribution. No one Expected Such Results |Biggest Drone Strike | We’ve Had Enough ]
••Day 461: May 30
Today Ukrainians conducted a massive drone strike on Moscow.
The target of the strike became the military base of an engineer battalion that is located in the southwestern suburbs.
However, this particular military base was not chosen because it has a significant influence on the course of the war.
This base was rather chosen because of its proximity to Moscow.
This was a direct response to the recent massive drone strikes on Kyiv.
As you remember, over the last several days, Russians were attacking it with dozens of Shahed kamikaze drones.
Local residents released dozens of videos, and Russian military analysts quickly created a list of locations where the drones were spotted and reported that Ukrainians attacked Moscow with at least 32 drones, which is approximately the same number as Russians used yesterday.
Local residents also posted the result of air defense work.
Some of them received critique, but because the Russian Ministry of Defense placed air defense next to a highway, it was obvious that thousands of cars would film it with their cameras.
The Russian Ministry of Defense quickly released a report and claimed that there were only 8 drones and that all of them were destroyed.
This statement was not well-received because there were multiple videos showing that plenty of drones reached their destination.
The Russian defense minister said that 3 out of 8 drones were shot down with air defense systems, while 5 drones were neutralized by the Electronic Warfare Systems, which basically highjacks the GPS system of the drone and sends the drone in the opposite direction of the target.
For this reason, there are multiple videos that show how drones hit the residential areas around the military base.
The President of the Russian Federation made a statement and said that Ukrainians conducted a terrorist attack against civilians as retribution for the successful Russian strike on Kyiv, referring to the results published by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that yesterday they conducted a successful precision strike and eliminated one more Patriot system, and blew up the main center of Ukrainian Intelligence.
The Defense Minister, Shoigu, also claimed that over the last month, they have shot down almost 200 HIMARS rockets and 30 Storm Shadow missiles.
However, it turned out that the Russian public did not care about the strike too much anyways. Many of the civilians even cheered it.
The reason why they had such a contradictory reaction is that the military site that Ukrainians targeted was located around 1 km away from Rublyovka.
Rublyovka is the most prestigious area in entire Russia, where all the wealthiest people - the so-called Russian elite - live.
So, most of the houses that were damaged by the drones that the Russian Electronic Warfare Systems directed away from the base belong to the Russian elite.
A famous Russian dancer made a video complaining about the explosions in her region, which sparked this wave of positive reactions.
The positive reaction to the so-called bombing of Rubliovka became a serious issue that was even raised by the state media.
One of the most prominent Russian news hosts said that this reaction is unacceptable because people who live in Rublyovka are also Russians, and laughing at it should be considered treason.
When it comes to the results of the strike, so far, the explosions on the military base were recorded and reported only by the local residents, and there is no information on whether any objects on the base were damaged or destroyed.
From confirmed information, there was an explosion in an alcohol factory somewhere near the military base, which was highly likely caused by a drone strike.
Apart from military objectives, the strike also demonstrated that the general population does not associate itself with the elite that rules the country.
This also explains why Russia is struggling to implement drastic measures to ramp up its offensive effort - the social discontent is extremely high, and compelling the population to radically change their lives through general mobilization or wide industrial mobilization threatens the stability of the regime that the population barely tolerates.
[Summary: What happened was there was a military engineering target near Moscow toward which the drones were flying. But Russian electronic counter measures forced some to go off course and collided with residential buildings without causing any real damage in the richest and most exclusive town in Russia. Western media just plays to the Russian line that civilians were targeted and does not tell the rest of the story, leaving false impressions. ]
••Denys said the drones were Russian.
Putin’s Secretary, Peskov when asked what citizens should do in a drone attack had no answers and no comments. Prior to the arrival of the drones there were no alerts, no warnings. This shows how little the Russian rulers care for their citizens, and the only real air defense Russia has, is based in Moscow.
==
UK Minister of Foreign Affairs said Ukraine may legally use force on legitimate military targets outside its borders.
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
•• This night in the Krasnodar (Ruzzia), drones attacked the Afipsky oil refinery. One of the fuel oil distillation units caught fire. The preliminary reason is the arrival of the UAV. The fire occurred on an area of 100 square meters, the fire was eliminated.
==
The main weakness of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is the lack of fighters - Welt [ Germany ].
Currently, the Russian Federation surpasses Ukraine in the number of aircraft by 5-6 times, they are also superior in technology - their radar sees further, their missiles have a much longer range.
The fighters were late for the summer offensive, so the battle in the sky is a weak point. The publication writes that because of this, Ukraine will have to de-occupy the territories with the help of artillery and heavy weapons.
Earlier Zelensky said that the lack of modern fighters would not affect the start of the counteroffensive.
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
Wonder how long it will take for the Chinese to start collecting all that high quality steel that is littering the Ukraine.
Ukraine losing 10,000 drones per month to Russian electronic warfare: report
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4155106/posts
I believe it is worthwhile to keep an accurate record of all the drones being destroyed by ruzzia.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1663806360780255232
In the video linked above, ruzzia uses a Bukhanka van to destroy the drone.
This morning, she reported on social networks that during the UAV attack she heard explosions and that there was a Russian military unit near her apartment. Analysts have established her address and the address of the military unit
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1663646336833536001
Street fighting at close range. Maryinka, Donetsk region.
https://twitter.com/antiputler_news/status/1663619296214302721
“Hey Blinken, Biden, your plan is not working. Russia has done you. They have changed the economy so that they no longer need the West. No one here wants to deal with America or Europe now!”
“Russia is building new economic centers through research, the introduction of new technologies and ideas, and foreign investment. Take Novosibirsk as an example, the third largest city in Russia. It is a business development center with the fastest growing economy in the country! They have fully recovered from the impact of the sanctions. The Russians got back on their feet, dusted themselves off and went on with their work! Nothing the West does can change that!”
Lack of uniformity also is a problem because of the variety of weapons issued to Ukrainian troops. Anti-tank weapons illustrates the dilemma. The photos below show a British NLAW and a U.S. Javelin missile. Both are designed to kill a tank, but the procedures a soldier must follow to fire a NLAW differs from a Javelin. The Javelin, for example, is equipped with an optic, the NLAW is not. I am not saying that a soldier cannot be trained to use both. Of course they can. But the reality is that these anti-tank weapons are being delivered to Ukrainian troops who have not had the opportunity to go through a training regimen to make them proficient in either or both.
###
It does not matter how brave or committed the Ukrainian troops are who will carry out the attack on Russian positions if the offensive is launched. If it comes, they will start with a deficit because they have been trained in different ways. More troubling is that the 12 brigades have not conducted a joint exercise where they have learned to carry out coordinated operations with the other units. Their task is made even more difficult because the attacking force will not have the close air support from combat jet and rotary wing aircraft. The Ukrainian units also are unlikely to have mobile air defense systems to fend off Russian aerial counter attacks. Ditto for mobile artillery.
The only hope for the Ukrainian troops tasked with this mission is that NATO intelligence has identified a weak point in the Russian defenses that can be exploited by the attacking force. If such a location exists, it is probably in an area with no significant population or urban centers. That means Ukraine will be capturing fields and forests and that will accomplish nothing that changes the tactical or strategic face of the war.
The German Wehrmacht, a much more powerful and well trained force than anything Ukraine can put on the battlefield, learned to their chagrin that lack of logistics and combat air support during the last days of Operation Barbarossa (which was launched in the summer of 1941) deprived them of victory. While the Nazis succeeded in driving to the suburbs of Moscow, they literally ran out of the fuel, supplies and reinforcements needed to maintain the momentum of their offensive.
Instead of executing a viable military strategy, Ukraine’s military is being asked to perform a political charade to satisfy Western expectations. Whatever success Ukraine achieves in the initial phase of its counter offensive, it lacks the depth in terms of reserves and materiel to sustain an attack. This is not a desperate gamble. This is forced suicide.
@visegrad24 3h
“BREAKING: The Taliban are pulling serious forces toward Islam-Qala (the main border crossing into Iran, from Herat in Afghanistan).
Meanwhile, Iran is pulling out some of its border guards from there, fearing a Taliban attack.
This comes after the recent deadly border clashes between Iran & Afghanistan” (much further South - Zaranj).
(The Taliban’s leader had his first visit from a foreign head of State (Qatar’s PM) a couple of weeks earlier. This may be more than just some trigger happy, dope smoking local guys kicking up dust.)
"BAKHMUT AXIS/ 1535 UTC 31 MAY/ RU sources indicate that units of the Wagner Group are conducting a phased withdrawal from positions in the northern portions of the Bakhmut Area of Operations (AO). Their stations are being turned over to Russian MoD forces."
The German government told Russia to close four out of its five consulates in Germany in retaliation for Moscow’s expulsion of German staff in Russia, the Associated Press reported on May 31.
Also: https://kyivindependent.com/germany-says-ukrainian-strikes-on-russian-territory-are-self-defense/
“Ukraine is within its right to launch strikes on Russian territory when it qualifies as self-defense, German government spokesperson Steffen Hebestreit told Deutsche Welle on May 31.
The statement comes a day after a drone attack on Moscow damaged several high-rise buildings...
During a press conference on May 30, U.K. Foreign Secretary James Cleverly acknowledged that Ukraine had “the legitimate right to (defend itself) within its own borders, but it does also have the right to project force beyond its borders to undermine Russia’s ability to project force into Ukraine.”
@EuromaidanPR 6h
“Shelling with a small arms were audible at 11:40 a.m. today in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea.”
@Maks_NAFO_FELLA 2h
""At the time of the drone attack on the Moscow region, Putin was in the Novo-Ogaryovo residence and almost got hit", — The Moscow Times...
Putin's security service reportedly woke him up early due to the air raid alert. Drones almost hit the second capital residence of the Russian president, and at the moment when he was in it. The drones were shot down when they were about 6-10 km from Putin's residence."
@AlexKokcharov 7h
This map shows locations of intercepted UAVs in locations west of #Moscow - and the houses of #Russia's government officials and oligarchs.
@Maks_NAFO_FELLA 6h
“US imposes sanctions on technology suppliers for Iranian UAVs” - Blinken”
The Hague has renamed a bike lane adjacent to the Russian embassy.
@NOELreports 5m
"The White House confirmed the allocation of a new package of support for Ukraine, worth $300 million, which will include (among others) missiles for the Patriot AD system, HIMARS ammunition, Avenger mobile surface-to-air systems and Stinger MANPADS."
@NOELreports 1h
“Bavovna o clock. Mariupol, smoke rises.”
As I come across this thread, 59 replies have been placed, with many multiples by SpeedyInTexas, PIF, FtrPilot, UMCRevMom@aol.com, dominusobiscum, and BeauBo, with a few other names. Six "regulars" encouraging each the other, out of "over one hundred thousand" daily reads.
Interesting to observe.
PTSD problems will be worse in Russia than it was after the Afghan or Chechen Wars, because of the huge numbers and harsh conditions. But one point not raised below, is that such an unprecedented number of the returning vets will have been among the worst of their prison population before the conflict - they are already being loosed back on the streets, with their new military training and PTSD.
Dara Massicot @MassDara 2h
The Russian military’s problems go beyond casualties and equipment losses. It faces two looming crises in retention and veteran PTSD and other disorders, when its soldiers are allowed to leave Ukraine. I explore this topic in my piece for @TheEconomist, linked in tweet below. /1
Russia’s wartime personnel policies mask the war’s impact on retention. Since September, *all* Russian forces (except PMCs, perhaps Rosgvardia) in Ukraine are serving in a compulsory status once mobilization began, according to decree. /3
..Officers, professional enlisted, and mobilized have had their contracts extended indefinitely until presidential decree ends mobilization. /4
Currently, the only ways out of military service (apart from being killed in combat) are reaching mandatory retirement age, receiving a medical discharge, or imprisonment. Or refusals and desertions, which are also on the rise. /5
When soldiers say no. Hundreds of Russian servicemen face trial in defiance of Ukraine deployment, Mediazona study reveals Soldiers are not rotated out regularly and do not always receive proper rest. They face prolonged exposure to combat stress and intensifying feelings of helplessness and anger at their situation. Anecdotes from the front suggest some want to resign when restrictions are lifted./6
Not all soldiers will want to leave the military when they are able, of course. Some may want to remain in service. Some may need to stay due to the money or housing benefits for themselves and their dependents. /7
Then there is the matter of PTSD. Just as there was “Afghan syndrome” and “Chechen Syndrome” to describe veterans with severe PTSD who struggled to adapt to civilian life, it is a matter of time before “Ukraine syndrome” emerges in Russia. Most soldiers are not home yet. /8
Even now, Russia’s medical system is straining to care for those with physical and mental wounds. Russia doesn’t have enough veteran psychiatric care facilities. Some are discharged without care for severe PTSD or sent to other facilities with inadequate staffing or care. /9
Like this facility, not designed to receive combat trauma, with little ability to care for physical or mental combat wounds. Some mothers come to care for their sons. Other soldiers buy alcohol off site and drink alone to sleep or numb themselves. /10
The 2020s are different from the 1990s, so veteran care may not be as shabby as before. The Russian government can spend more on veterans, Russian society is more stable than in the 1990s, and there is institutional knowledge about PTSD (a term they now use in Russia). /11
Some Russian medical professionals estimate 20-25% of returning veterans will have PTSD, and 100,000 will need professional help. While soldiers are deployed the Kremlin set up a “Defenders of the Fatherland Fund” to create regional centers for veteran care. It’s very new /12
But there are problems: the scale of the problem is different (97% of Ground Forces/Airborne units) are in Ukraine which makes it different from Afghanistan and Chechnya. Secondly, the environment in Russia criminalizes anything seen as “discrediting” the military. /13
When veterans of Afghanistan and Chechnya returned home, those with severe and untreated PTSD struggled with employment, family life, were more prone to criminal activity, and had health issues. The Russian population avoided them, making their isolation worse. /13
I lived in Russia during the second campaign in Chechnya. I saw a soldier of that war standing on the street once. He was a few years older than me, but I’ll never forgot how old his eyes looked. No Russians looked at him.... /14
... yet, not long before that, I had seen an entire bus leap up at one time to help a WWII veteran stand. What I understood was that pride was only for some wars and some veterans, and shame was for others. /15
Currently, Russia is grafting the iconography of WWII onto soldiers of this war, calling them ‘liberators’ , curating an image of these personnel as defenders. In some ways, this might differentiate veterans experiences when they return home from ‘Afghantsy’ or Chechnya vets/16
I want to note that, Ukraine is also facing severe challenges with PTSD, not only in its armed forces but their civilian population too. They were invaded, and they urgently need support. /17
Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the way they mistreat their own personnel, will likely cause lasting problems with military retention and a ticking time bomb of veteran mental health disorders. For now these issues loom on the horizon (no one can resign), but the fuse is lit. /end
@visegrad24 27m
Russia just launched another wave of missile attacks against Kyiv.
