And now we know.
“Well, there’s the final confirmation. Unless they had the guts to put a patriot radar close to the border (unlikely considering it would have popped up on Russian RWR’s), this pretty much confirms that Ukrainian PAC-2 is acquiring targets across link16 datalink. Exciting stuff.”
“Russian Air Force affiliated channel Fighterbomber reports that all helicopters and fighter jets downed on May 13 were shot down by a Ukrainian Patriot air defense system and 11 pilots died. That day Russia lost a Su-34, Su-35 & two Mi-8s in Russia’s Bryansk region.“
https://twitter.com/ArchieIrving2/status/1661348544337551360
“Haven’t seen much discussion about whether the Patriot system may have been responsible for the recent Russian aircraft losses, so here is my take. This looks to me like a possible use case for PAC-2 from well within Ukrainian territory using link16. ”
https://twitter.com/ArchieIrving2/status/1658116284444295170
Ummm... earth to Speedy:
It’s Over.
The only “attack on Europe” has been the Biden regime’s destruction of the Russian pipeline serving Germany — and our attempt to false-flag Russia for allegedly blowing up its own pipeline.
NATO ISR flights over the Black Sea and off Crimea are back in a big way today. Looks like Putin might have tried to shoot down Forte10 again. Fighter escorts for Rivet Joint.
Let me know when Russians are losing equipment in Maine. Maybe I’ll care then.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 23, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army, The 2nd Best Army in Ukraine <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
[Vehicles likely captured in battles for Soledar or Bakhmut. Vehicles repainted after fire with gray paint and white script, “for Bakhmut”.]
==
-—> Russian Border Incursion Fight Raged On Into Second Day <——
Moscow claims it stopped the cross-border incursion but there are indications the fight inside Russia isn’t over yet.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russian-border-incursion-fight-raged-on-into-second-day
[Both Russian groups claim no losses and the dead soldiers shown by Russia ware wearing the wrong uniforms.]
==
-—> Poland Will Train Ukrainian Pilots To Fly F-16s <——
The Polish defense minister says that future Ukrainian F-16 pilots will start training in Poland, as a multinational effort comes together.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/poland-will-train-ukrainian-pilots-to-fly-f-16s
[ Free Entry. Russians Have No Reserves to React | No Visa Required | They Are Losing Belgorod ]
Day 454: May 23
••Today the biggest news once again comes from the north.
Here, Russian forces failed to return full control over the Russian territories during the first day, and the fighting carried over into the next day.
By morning the situation did not change much.
After 12 hours of continuous fighting, Russian forces reportedly only managed to advance a little bit in the northern part of Gora-Podol, while the resisting forces assumed positions in the southern part of the settlement.
Local residents posted multiple videos of artillery strikes and the aftermath of shelling.
Time worked against Russians because the longer it took Russians to push the resisting forces back, the more they managed to build and equip defensive fortifications in the rear, as can be seen from the geolocated video of the Russian Control Point.
Other footage shows that they were using bags with sand from the Control Point to block the roads and create defense points.
After noon, the insurgent forces reportedly started retreating from Grayvoron, and the Russian Ministry of Defense soon declared that the counterterrorist operation was completed and all saboteurs were destroyed.
It turned out the head of the counterterrorist operation was the notorious General Lapin, who lost all territories under his responsibility in the aftermath of the second Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.
The videos showed how he marched on the main road, leading his forces into the battle.
This raised concerns in the Russian media space as Lapin is not perceived as a competent leader.
A few hours later, it became clear that the operation was not over.
Local residents continue publishing videos with audible gunfire and explosions. Later, a soldier from the Russian forces reported that Ukrainians were still controlling Kozinka, Glotovo, and the Control Point.
He said that the resistance was immense, and they lacked the forces and support to recapture the settlements.
He claimed that the insurgent forces were firing at Russian forces from tanks, mortars, and artillery.
Geolocated footage confirmed the claims of the Russian soldier, showing mortar positions in Kozinka. The insurgent forces reportedly had at least 5 times the amount of support as Russian forces and also were reinforced by around 500 more troops.
Simultaneously, local residents started reporting that the Freedom of Russia Legion entered the Belgorod region from the south as well.
It was reported that Ukrainians conducted an artillery preparation and struck objects in the vicinity of Bogun-Gorodok, Lozovaya Rudka, and Tsapovka.
Later sabotage groups reportedly entered Gorkovkii, Bogun-Gorodok, and Shchetinovka and started moving northwest, possibly to close the gap and effectively establish control over at least 300 square kilometers of the Belgorod region.
According to Russian sources, Russian rapid-deployment forces, frontier police, and regular forces were deployed to prevent any further expansion of the insurgent forces.
Russian military analysts got worried about the escalation of the situation because Ukrainians reportedly have created at least 3 areas of visible forces concentrations around the Belgorod region: 500 troops near Velyka Pysarivka, 2000 troops near Udy, and 2000 troops near Lyptsi.
So, it looks like the insurgent forces initially retreated not because they were defeated.
They retreated for 3 reasons:
firstly, they were drawing Russian forces on themselves;
secondly, they finished preparing their defense in order to conduct this operation and lure Russian forces without damage to themselves;
and thirdly, they received a reinforcement to hold the line tightly.
The insurgent forces revealed the biggest current vulnerability of the Russian Army. Russians simply do not have any reserves left because all of them have already been deployed to the front.
That is why they were forced to use rapid-deployment forces from the Federal Security Service, which did not work very well because, firstly, they do not have heavy equipment such as artillery, and secondly, yesterday’s drone strike successfully hit the department of Federal Security Service in Belgorod, which likely caused disarray.
Today’s footage clearly shows that the drones hit the parking lot and also penetrated the building.
The head of the Freedom of Russian Legion reported that those reserves that Russians managed to scrabble, namely a Motorized Rifle Company, were destroyed and Russians started deploying new forces.
The latest Russian reports once again claim that the insurgent forces retreated and Russians returned control over the region, however, even if it is true, they seem to have accomplished their mission because Russian started relocating their forces from the front.
Ukrainian Intelligence reported that Russians started redeploying their forces from Ukraine to the Belgorod region.
Russian military analysts confirmed this information and specified that the Russian military leadership decided to deploy the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade to the Belgorod region border area in order to counter the current attacks and prevent future ones.
And this is a very favorable development for Ukrainians because it relieves the fronts and also diminishes the number of available Russian reserves.
Reserves is the decisive factor in a successful defensive operation because they are used to prevent a total collapse after the first line of defense is breached.
The decreasing number of enemy reserves significantly increases the chances of a successful counteroffensive operation.
••Images of Humvees Russia claimed they captured in the Belgorod raid ,likely were captured in Soledar or Bakhmut. Vehicles shown are not possible geolocate; they were shot up and abandoned. Some of the vehicles have “Za Bakhmut” painted on them in white after they were on fire against the same gray background primer.
They may have captured a Max Pro vehicle. It is pictured with Russian General Lapin. All of this is one big Russian PR propaganda campaign to show they have the situation under control.
Early morning video shows Lupin moving his forces ahead, directing traffic, leading the way with his armor vehicles following behind him as he walks down a paved road.
But in full daylight he goes into a berserk mode. He yells at an armored vehicle to go forward because the enemy is nothing, and I don’t even need a gun, he said walking down a paved road. He is wearing a Soviet flag patch on his shoulder.
Hurry up, hurry up, he yells with waving arms, forward! Forward! Denys cracks up with laughter.
Russians claim all the enemy forces are driven back over the border, and they destroyed the fleeing forces with artillery. But citizens are not allowed to return home just yet, even though everything is fine. Which raises questions.
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
==
Meanwhile, the Legion said they have no losses and move freely in the captured areas.
==
Budanov said Ukraine has the minimum equipment to start the offensive which will be very soon.
==
The Speaker of the Kremlin, Peskov said about Belgorod, “The Kremlin is deeply concerned.” Nothing more.
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
••In the morning, the Russian reconnaissance ship “Ivan Khurs” was attacked in the Black Sea , - Russian media. According to propagandists, three naval drones took part in the attack. There is no information about damage yet.
By the way, Rusnya closed the Crimean bridge for several hours, allegedly because of the exercises being held in the area.
==
“Let’s prepare for an uprising in Belarus, because it will happen,” - Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak. According to him, the Poles should be ready to support those units that will conduct an operation against Lukashenka. He no longer has the military ability to prevent such an uprising. Russia won’t help him much.
==
Russian officials said everything is going according to the Plan.
Valeurs Actuelles: the number of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is Zelensky's worst secretThe number of dead soldiers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is Zelensky's most terrible secret in this conflict, writes Valeurs Actuelles.
At the same time, since the end of the summer, the number of killed and wounded has increased sharply, and the number of conscripts has recently decreased significantly.
"From 40 to 60 percent of the first Ukrainian servicemen, whom we trained on French soil in 2022, no longer get in touch," one reliable source told our publication. "We think that most of them are silent because they have already died in battle." French instructors who have established contact with their Ukrainian students are limited only to assumptions about their fates. According to those who nevertheless decided to address this issue to the military authorities in Kiev, the topic causes only discontent among representatives of Ukraine. The death toll remains the most terrible secret of President Vladimir Zelensky, although, judging by all available external data, there is no doubt that since the end of summer, the number of dead and injured has increased dramatically. For example, we have just learned that the number of students has increased by 82% in a few months, as this status allows young people to avoid the ongoing mobilization in the country.
The latest numbers of conscription for the blue-yellow flag have significantly decreased compared to the beginning of hostilities. Despite the reinforcements, the ranks of the units are thinning. In nine brigades formed with the help of NATO for the future spring offensive, there are from 2.5 to three thousand people, whereas by the standards of the North Atlantic Alliance their number should be from five to eight thousand. Away from the eyes of journalists and media workers, the Ukrainian military are painting a "war picture" for their foreign partners, which looks more like raw information from the front than what Western news channels report without unnecessary details. In the Donbass throughout the winter, they confirm, their people were under constant onslaught of Russian troops. And the units located on the contact line were always in a state of readiness for battle against superior enemy forces because of "their absolute superiority."
Russian artillery is three times more
These testimonies correspond to the calculations of the balance of power made by the French military. According to them, Russians have about three times more artillery pieces in the Donbass than Ukrainians. Kiev is also suffering from another well-known problem: the arsenals of its allies have been depleted, and industrial capacities in the West are recovering too slowly. Today, Russian troops produce an average of 15 thousand shots a day, and Ukrainians respond with five thousand shots. Since most of the dead and wounded in this conflict are accounted for by artillery, some experts do not agree that the losses of the parties are equal. This point of view was previously held by American official sources, but they have already revised their forecasts. In January, they reported 100,000 dead and wounded on both sides. At the beginning of May, they were already talking about "at least 200,000 and possibly 250,000 killed and wounded." This is a confirmation that the "trench war" is especially bloody. News about constant losses also comes from Artemovsk.
"Yes, Ukrainians have fewer weapons, but they are much more effective and their servicemen use them more correctly," the supporters of the theory of "equal" forces object. They argue their claims with the presence in Kiev of French Caesar artillery installations and American HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. Those who downplay the effect of these weapons ("there are too few of them") claim that over the past eight months Ukrainians have lost at least twice as many people as Russians. Thus, in any case, the balance of power has changed compared to the beginning of the conflict.
<…>
Strategic depth…
In the "battle of attrition" (the depletion of the enemy's human and material potential, in military terms), Russia has a serious advantage over Ukraine. Its population is three and a half times larger (143 million versus 41 million). However, the question of the "permissibility" of deaths is probably more sensitive for Russians. As long as there are enough volunteers called up on very attractive financial terms to replenish the ranks, Vladimir Putin will undoubtedly be satisfied, and the generals will have to adjust their strategy accordingly. In early May, during a speech to Congress, General Christopher Cavoli, the commander of American troops in Europe and the military head of NATO, tempered the ardor of an official who spoke approvingly about the latest assessment of Russian losses made by the Pentagon. "Most of the Russian army has not suffered in this conflict," Cavoli said.
@visegrad24 2h
Picture of the 196 Dutch citizens being returned to the Netherlands from Russia after Russia shot down Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over Eastern Ukraine on July 17th, 2014.
298 people were killed.
Netherlands will now send F-16s to Ukraine to protect Ukrainian air space.
@visegrad24 1h
BREAKING: Later this year, Poland will start the process of buying submarines. Defense Minister @mblaszczak revealed the news today.
Norway announces it will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s
The only peaceful resolution in the Russo-Ukrainian war, and now the 2023 Bilhorod war of Independence, should demand immediate ceasefire in the Bilhorod Peoples Republic (BPR) and withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine and the Bilhorod Peoples Republic (BPR), and immediate negotiations for this neutral country to divide Ukraine and Russia in perpetuity (or until annexed by Ukraine). Any peaceful resolution must also entail the creation of 6 more neutral buffer States, the:
A. Rostov People's Republic (RPR)
B. Voronezh People's Republic(VPR)
C. Kursk People's Republic (KPR)
D. Republic of Krasnodar Krai (ROKK)
E. Circassia People's Republic (CPR)
F. Democratic Republic of Bryansk (DPB)
Anything Russian now stinks like dead fish to Ukrainians.
Putin did that.
@KyivIndependent 9h
Orthodox Church of Ukraine to switch to Revised Julian calendar, celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25.
The Synod of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine has approved switching to the new Julian calendar from Sept. 1. It means the Church will celebrate Christmas on Dec. 25 instead of Jan. 7.
Other holidays with a fixed date will also be moved while the change will not apply to Easter as its date fluctuates.
Previously, the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and Ukrainian Greek Catholics used only the old Julian calendar, also used by the Russian Orthodox Church.
AVDIIVKA AXIS/1445 UTC 24 MAY/ Twenty-eight Russian troops of the 110th Brigade of the RU Army are reported to have surrendered to the UKR 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade near Avdiivka. A Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter was reported downed by UKR air defense.
Novo North Korea - Putin’s legacy to Russia:
“Prigozhin says war in Ukraine has backfired, warns of Russian revolution”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/24/yevgeniy-prigozhin-war-backfired-revolution/
“In a lengthy interview with Konstantin Dolgov, a political operative and pro-war blogger, Prigozhin, the founder and leader of the Wagner mercenary group, also asserted that the war had backfired spectacularly by failing to “demilitarize” Ukraine, one of President Vladimir Putin’s stated aims of the invasion. He also called for totalitarian policies.
“We are in a situation where we can simply lose Russia,” Prigozhin said, using an expletive to hammer his point. “We must introduce martial law. We unfortunately … must announce new waves of mobilization; we must put everyone who is capable to work on increasing the production of ammunition,” he said. “Russia needs to live like North Korea for a few years, so to say, close the borders … and work hard.””
...”Instead of demilitarization, he said, the invasion turned “Ukraine’s army into one of the most powerful in the world” and Ukrainians into “a nation known to the entire world.”
“If they, figuratively speaking, had 500 tanks at the beginning of the special operation, now they have 5,000,” he said. “If they had 20,000 fighters who knew how to fight, now they have 400,000. How did we ‘demilitarize’ it? Now it turns out that we militarized it.”
...”In his interview, Prigozhin said there was an “optimistic scenario” for Russia’s war: Western support for Ukraine wears out, and China brokers a peace deal, allowing Russia to keep occupied Ukrainian lands.
“I don’t have much faith in the optimistic scenario,” he said, adding that instead Ukraine could partially succeed in a highly anticipated counteroffensive, pushing Russian troops closer to the borders that existed before hostilities began in 2014. They could also attack Crimea and continue pressing on in the east, armed with more Western weapons, he said.
“Most likely this scenario will not be good for us,” Prigozhin said. “So we need to prepare for a difficult war.””
Moscow tonight. Major fire tonight in Odintsovo, a suburb of Moscow.
"From: Ukrainian Ministry of Accidental Russian Fires"
As well as the confirmation that Kyiv is using swing-wing Su-24 Fencer combat jets to launch U.K.-supplied Storm Shadow conventionally armed cruise missiles, and that France will donate SCALP-EG cruise missiles, there is now possibility that another similar long-range weapon could reach the Ukrainian Air Force in the future. It emerged today that Germany could follow the United Kingdom’s lead and provide Ukraine with conventionally armed cruise missiles, in the form of the air-launched Taurus KEPD 350, according to at least one member of Berlin’s federal parliament.
The Taurus missile, which offers broadly similar capabilities to the Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG, is being pitched as another weapon to strike deep behind Russian lines, and, with large stocks in German storage, it could be potentially available to Ukraine in significant numbers...
...According to reports, the German military acquired around 600 Taurus missiles of which only around 150 are kept at operational readiness at any given time...
...there has so far been no real progress in adapting Germany’s Eurofighter EF2000 fighter jets to carry the missile. Instead, it’s exclusively carried by Germany’s fleet of Tornado IDS strike aircraft, which are headed for retirement around 2030...
...The missile reportedly has a range of more than 300 miles...
...Designed to penetrate air defenses via a very low-level terrain following flight, the turbojet-powered Taurus missile carries a 1,060-pound dual-stage warhead, known as MEPHISTO. This is similar in concept to the BROACH warhead in Storm Shadow, which uses a precursor charge to punch through hardened structures followed by the main change that can be fuzed for penetration mode when required, meaning it detonates after breaching the target. The MEPHISTO warhead can even be programmed to detonate on a specific pre-selected floor of a given building...
...The missile guidance system is based on an inertial navigation system (INS) that is continuously provided with GPS updates. There is also an image-based terrain reference sensor, which provides the capability to attack what the manufacturer describes as “semi-stationary targets.”...
...Should Germany approve the transfer of Taurus, it’s possible that more examples of the missile could be supplied by Spain...
...MBDA (the German manufacturer, in partnership with Sweden's Saab) also says the Taurus missile can also be easily integrated on the F-16.
@KyivIndependent 9m
Ukraine reportedly shoots down all Russian aerial targets during May 25 Kyiv attack.
Ukraine shot down all the Russian aerial targets in a morning Russian strike on Kyiv, according to preliminary information reported by Kyiv City Military Administration head Serhii Popko.
