That's too funny!
But, who said he could count?
Posted on 05/17/2023 5:54:28 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 16, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
Excerpts:
First, as stated last evening, it’s entirely possible that one of the Patriot systems was damaged in the aerial onslaught due to an enemy weapon. It’s also worth remembering that just like any missile system, Patriot interceptors fail, and sometimes they do so right after launch in spectacular fashion.
These failures can even damage parts of the battery itself, although that is rare. And sometimes such a failure can look like the battery was hit by the enemy. So claims of a Patriot site being struck due to a flash seen in a video or some other single piece of vague evidence is not worth a hard conclusion.
Second, and far more importantly, is that the possibility of a Patriot system being damaged or destroyed by enemy fire should not come as a surprise at all. From the first time it was uttered that Patriot could be on the table for Ukraine, we made it clear that those systems would become Russia’s top target for which they would assign their most capable weapons.
Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missiles would be the top conventional weapon of choice to try to successfully attack those batteries. It was designed, in part, to evade higher-tier anti-ballistic missile defenses.
So Patriot was always going to be under direct attack just as soon as it arrived and its location was ascertained by Russia. Its radars put out a massive electromagnetic signature that is not hard to detect and geolocate.
Even the most nimble configuration of the Patriot system is also quite static and it takes time to move from one location to another. Multiple types of other intelligence, from satellite imagery to informants on the ground, can help geolocate such a large layout in near-real time.
Every weapon fired at the Patriot battery is one less weapon Russia can use to hit other targets. And while the Patriot batteries are of very high value, they are also the best-defended locations in the country, so Russia would be spending a lot of its best standoff weapons, an arsenal that dwindling in size and very hard to replace, just to get a shot at a hit.
While Patriot interceptors vary in capability, can be very expensive, and they can be depleted fairly quickly, there are thousands in NATO’s collective inventory.
As we have stated many times over the years, air defense, and especially missile defense, is not magic. Far from it. It is not an impenetrable shield. That is a fantasy that has emerged from Hollywood, elements of the mainstream media, outright propaganda, and defense marketing.
The Patriot is a very capable system, even in its most basic configuration, but especially so the more deeply it is woven into a larger integrated air defense network. That, however, does not make it a foolproof invisible wall. It can be attacked, overwhelmed, and it can malfunction.
Finally, we need to remember that destruction of enemy air defenses (DEAD), an activity that Ukraine and Russia are very active in performing, is a mission not a capability, weapon, or platform. SAM batteries can be destroyed by small special operations teams on the ground or by a slew of other means.
Anti-radiation missiles still remain a threat as well. The bottom line is that Russia is going to try to realize their DEAD objectives in relation to Patriot any way they can and that will likely go beyond lobbing Kinzhals and Shaheds at it as time goes on.
==
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: France Sending SCALP-EG Cruise Missiles <——
The French move to provide SCALP-EG air-launched cruise missiles comes after the U.K. delivered essentially identical missiles to Kyiv.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-france-sending-scalp-eg-cruise-missiles
Excerpts:
Following the United Kingdom’s announcement that it had sent Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron has said his country will provide Kyiv with virtually identical weapons called SCALP-EGs.
It remains unclear how the Ukrainians might be employing Storm Shadows. The Ukrainian Air Force is using “specially modernized” Su-24 Fencers “under the cover of MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters with [AGM-88 High-speed Anti-Radiation Missile] HARM” missiles to launch the Storm Shadows, the Russian Izvestia news agency reported Tuesday, citing anonymous sources.
The War Zone had previously noted that Ukraine’s Su-24s and Su-27s are the only aircraft it has that could realistically carry these missiles at all.
“To ensure the safety of their aviation, the Ukrainian command is actively using false targets in the form of UAVs,” according to Izvestia. The Russian outlet’s story did not specify what kinds of drones might be being used for this purpose, but there is evidence that Ukrainian forces have also been employing U.S.-made ADM-160 Miniature Air-Launched Decoys (MALD),
==
Oleksandr Syrskyi, the Commander of the Ground Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, visited the troops near Bakhmut and thanked them for their counteroffensive actions this week.
Referring to the Russian Wagner mercenary group, Syrskyi said that those troops “climbed into Bakhmut like rats into a mousetrap.”
“Using the principle of active defense, we resort to counteroffensive actions in some directions near Bakhmut,” he wrote. “The enemy has more resources, but we destroy his plans.”
==
Ukrainian forces look to be using Romanian 152mm M1981 howitzers, a derivative of the Soviet-era D-20, according to the Ukraine Weapons Tracker OSINT group. This follows the emergence of APR-40 122mm multiple rocket launchers apparently in Ukrainian service earlier this month.
Storm Shadow may be getting the headlines at the moment, but the U.S.-donated Guided Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (GMLRS) rockets are still creating havoc on the battlefield for Russia.
The Ukraine Weapons Tracker OSINT group has highlighted a report that a GMLRS recently destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system in Donetsk Oblast.
GMLRS also reportedly destroyed a Russian 9A310M1 TELAR near Popasna in Luhansk Oblast. The 9A310M1 is used in both the Buk-M1 and M2 air defense systems and it’s unclear which one this particular example may have been.
==
-—> Dozens Of Interceptors Fired As Kyiv Faced Most Complex Barrage Yet <——
Russia is throwing everything it’s got at Kyiv and Ukraine’s new Patriot batteries, which are likely the top targets, are responding in kind.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/dozens-of-interceptors-fired-as-kyiv-faced-most-complex-barrage-yet
Excerpts:
It’s worth noting that Kinzhal is not a hypersonic glide vehicle at all, it’s an air-launched variant of the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile with hypersonic endgame performance. Hypersonic glide vehicles are an entirely different category of weapon.
==
-—> Russia To Get Yars-M Ballistic Missiles With Novel Warhead Delivery System: Reports <——
Reports suggest that Russia plans to start manufacturing a version of its Yars ICBM with a novel, harder-to-defeat warhead configuration.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-to-get-yars-m-ballistic-missiles-with-novel-warhead-delivery-system-reports
Excerpts:
Russia is about to start production of a new version of its RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, with a final stage that incorporates much more mobile independent warheads, according to reports.
The changes are expected to make the weapon far harder for an opponent to track and intercept, as well as improve its accuracy and overall capabilities.
While warheads of this kind have been tested by Russia in the past, the latest evidence suggests that the country is poised to begin the series manufacture of these missiles, which will initially be fielded on road-mobile launchers.
Specifically, MIT will produce the solid-fuel 15Zh80 missile, which differs from earlier Yars and other Russian ICBMs in its use of independent post-boost vehicles, or IPBVs, known in Russian as blok individualnogo razvedeniya (BIR).
... a missile with an IPBV configuration has multiple reentry vehicles each of which breaks off after launch and then hurtles toward its final destination, essentially behaving like smaller rockets that each host their own propulsion system and their own warhead. This means a single ICBM is better able to strike independent targets.
After all, using IPBVs, each warhead can follow a course that is much more independent of the main missile’s trajectory, allowing a single ICBM to rain down warheads across a far wider geographical area. This kind of targeting can also be more precise, with the vehicles not restricted by a single flight path.
IPBVs are better able to defeat missile defenses that might be in their way. In a typical MIRV arrangement, the warheads remain clustered together as a single object for a longer period of time and could potentially be destroyed as one.
With IPBVs, the warheads are moving independently of one another, likely on differing trajectories, complicating tracking them and intercepting them using ballistic missile defense systems
[ No Factor | Useless | It Was Their Best Weapon | Russia’s Most Potent Weapon Meets Ukrainian Iron Dome ]
••Day 447: May 16
Today Ukrainians got hit by an exceptionally dense missile barrage.
Usually, massive Russian missile strikes were spread out across the whole of Ukraine, which forced Ukrainians to spread out their air defense systems.
By rapidly changing their tactic and concentrating all of their rockets on Kyiv, Russians expected to take advantage of the fact that Ukrainians may not have enough air defense systems in one place.
Unfortunately for the Russians, Ukrainians decided to allocate plenty of Patriot systems exactly to the Kyiv region, and as a result, Russians had the most unsuccessful missile strike because, for the first time in this war, Ukrainians managed to shoot down all Russian rockets.
It was highly likely the merit of the Intelligence, which unveiled the Russian plans and ensured that Patriot systems showed up at the right place at the right time.
And such insight was indispensable for the 100% success rate because Russians used 6 hypersonic missiles, Kinzhal, and 3 yet unspecified ballistic missiles, which could only be intercepted with Patriot systems.
As the Spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force stated multiple times, regular Ukrainian air defense, such as Buk, is incapable of intercepting hypersonic objects.
Russian sources reported that they targeted areas of forces concentrations, ammunition depots, and warehouses with equipment and that they achieved all their goals and destroyed all predetermined objects.
Later local residents started publishing a lot of photos with different remnants of Russian rockets that they found on the streets of Kyiv, some of them even found whole missiles. Several hours later, a video was published with partially reassembled intercepted Russian rockets.
Russian sources also claimed they almost didn’t use hypersonic missiles, and that they destroyed one Patriot system. Some sources circulated a video showing an explosion in the area where Patriot systems have been launching rockets.
The Ukrainian side responded that Patriot systems are intact and that the explosion was caused by an intercepted missile that fell in the Soloviansk region and caused a fire in a bus station.
Some Russian military analysts also discussed the photos of the remnants of Ukrainian rockets. The remnants were identified as PAC-3 CRI, which means that Ukrainians are indeed capable of intercepting ballistic missiles and confirms that Ukrainians received the newest model of the Patriot air defense system.
When it comes to the Bakhmut direction, Ukrainians seem to be opening another line of attack. If previously, Ukrainians were moving south from Ivanivske and northeast from Bohdanivka, then over the last several days, there was a visible activation of Ukrainian forces near Minkivka.
After Ukrainians successfully pushed Russians from the hill north of Bohdanivka, the Russian tactical position in the region started to deteriorate and made it much harder to protect the tree lines around Orikhovo-Vasylivka. In the aftermath of several assaults, Ukrainians managed to push Russian from one of the trench networks in a dense tree area.
The Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, recently predicted that this is going to be the next major Ukrainian line of attack because this way Ukrainians will also be moving along the tactical heights and pushing Russians back downhill.
The latest reports indicate that Ukrainians have already started intense artillery preparation. Recent footage shows how a Ukrainian drone operator unveiled a Russian artillery position together with an ammunition depot and, in coordination with an artillery crew, destroyed the enemy forces, equipment, and ammunition.
When it comes to the city itself, there are a few important updates in the citadel. After penetrating Ukrainian defense orders along Levanevskogo Street, Russian forces increased their pressure on the so-called Nest fortification from at least 3 sides. As a result, Ukrainian retreated towards the outer buildings.
The Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin claimed that by completely clearing the flanks, Ukrainians set perfect conditions for a controlled fighting withdrawal.
Some Russian sources report that almost all troops have already been evacuated from Bakhmut because as the territory was gradually shrinking, Ukrainians vehicles that were bringing in supplies would take excess forces back to Chasiv Yar.
The Ukrainian Head of the Eastern Group Forces that arrived in the Bakhmut direction reported that he gave all the necessary information to the commanders, walked through all possible scenarios, and said that Ukrainians are ready for the next move.
••Avdiivka:
Russian moved there troops out and have gone over to complete defense.
==
In the North, the Russians continue attacking toward Masyutivka which they apparently took. There seem to be few UA troops in the area with just parts of the 105th, 14th, and 27th. The Russian goal is Kupyansk.
==
The longer the UA waits for its center offensive, the more possible damage the Russians could inflict on the UA supply lines.
==
Great Britain and the Netherlands agreed to work on creating a coalition for the purchase of fighter jets for Ukraine. The prime ministers “will work to build an international coalition to provide Ukraine with combat air capability, providing support in everything from training [pilots] to purchasing F-16 fighter jets.” Sunak also added that Ukraine’s rightful place is in NATO.
==
Much hyped Kinzal missile is just the standard Iskander ballistic missile with a different motor. It cannot maneuver. Meanwhile US intel said China has better hypersonic missile prototype than it’s client state of Russia.
==
UA Minister of Intelligence, Budanov confirms that 80% of what Prigozhin says is actually true. The RGF is much weaker than expected, while the PMC is much stronger and better fighters than expected. Russian Command is very jealous that they cannot achieve their goals, but Wagners can. The conflict between the RGF and the PMC is very real and can continue fora very long time.
Budanov personally thinks Prigozhin will win, and Shoigu and Gerasimov will lose. Prigozhin may look like a clown, but behind him are huge resources, plus Sachim, the second richest man in Russia, while Putin is the richest. Meanwhile, Prigozhin is best served by staying close to the front and out of Russia.
Budanov said that Kadyrov is using drugs.
••UA posts Russian 200s at over 201,200.
==
Grain deal will be extended, Russia agreed to stay in the agreement - Bloomberg, citing Turkish officials.
==
Short video: A huge column of American armored vehicles Oshkosh M-ATV and tankers of the Ukrainian army on one of the roads on the way to the front line.
==
Belgium is ready to train Ukrainian fighter pilots to fly the F-16, reports DeMorgen, citing the Belgian Prime Minister.
==
According to The Telegraph, the drones promised yesterday by Britain with a range of more than 200km are kamikaze drones, the striking effect of which is comparable to an artillery shell. At the same time, they have a low cost, hundreds will be produced, and their delivery to Ukraine can be expected in the coming months.
Jon Boy!
Its everyone’s fault except RUZZIA!
Cheer up Comrade!
“Scalp” is French for Storm Shadow.
OH. OK.
Didn’t realize that. Silly me.
Also, the UKR jets that are upgraded to launch Storm Shadow will not require any additional modification to launch Scalp.
“Following the United Kingdom’s announcement that it had sent Storm Shadow cruise missiles to Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron has said his country will provide Kyiv with virtually identical weapons called SCALP-EGs.”
New favorite slogans:
Time to Scalp those RuZZian Boys.
Storm is casting a Shadow...
In other words...the Storm before the Storm.
It is my understanding that Storm Shadows and Scalps can be software modified to limit their range.
I have also read that some of the high-tech systems being supplied will only work within Ukraine.
That's too funny!
But, who said he could count?
Better new is there are thousands of those missiles - Storm Shadow and Scalp EGs ( Scalp-EM was rejected as being too over-the-top. )
Actual range is around 590km, but in-use range is modified by a software setting.
As an observer of patterns as one of my "OCD" behaviors, I look at some posts for the behavioral view to things. This morning I doubled checked, just to be sure and reply to you.
It seems that "SpeedyInTexas" has at least two devoted fans, "PIF" and "FtrPilot." In the same "rocket-launching" posts, "MCRevMom@aol.com" has two devoted fans, "Sunsong" and "Widget Jr." These casts of characters are seemingly separate and distinct.
Most interestingly, "Speedy" does not comment on "MCRevMom@aol.com" even if only to encourage, and "MCRevMom@aol.com" does not comment on "Speedy" posts. Moreover their most oft appearing fans seem distinct, one from the other, What might be the pattern here?
Disclaimer: of the three stances, 1) pro-Z, 2) pro-P, and 3) "not my circus", I am of the third stance, and find the Obama-Biden flood of money to this "event" much like the massive sums spent on another "event."
Speedy and Other seem to have precious little other interest than pro-Z, as they "OCD" on Ukraine, but not the border with Mexico, the massive drug crisis ongoing in our nation, election manipulation and illegalities, nor the Biden corruption being uncovered. So many critical issues for out nation, ignored in favor of one, a war between two non-NATO nations. And the Obama-Biden allegiance to beggaring this nation. Patterns....
Thank you for those spot-on observations.
FR does seem to have agenda-driven poster teams.
Wow that is some deep rooted analysis.
Your therapist must be proud of you.
My Gosh! Did you learn that amazing analysis at troll school? Or are you just panicking as your genocidal Regulars and Wagners boyz get encircled at Bakhmut, while other troop concentrations get hammered by Storm Shadows and Glide Bombs? All of that before the actual offensive begins? Oh my, I see why you are in such a panic!
Here's the score card:
The three missiles in the lower right were supposedly Iskanders. So, there were 9 hypersonic missiles shot down.
The damage was most likely debris falling on one of the launchers.
I would expect extra launchers would be included in the "spares" package.
@Speedy You attacked the messenger to deflect from his messenge obviously because you couldn’t refute it.
Wow, all those who use logical fallacies, diversionary tactics, etc, must be proud of you.
Prove me wrong and refute what he said if you can.
Get to it...
You also attacked the messenger to deflect from his messenge obviously because you couldn’t refute it.
Wow, all those who use logical fallacies, diversionary tactics, etc, must also be proud of you.
Prove me wrong and refute what he said if you can.
Get to it...
No more diversionary tactics from you or Speedy either.
Update on the conflict in Ukraine for May 17, 2023:
- Russia’s Ministry of Defense and US officials confirm Russian hypersonic Kinzhal missiles successfully targeted US-made Patriot air defense systems;
- Patriot systems launched approximately 30 missiles over 2 minutes, representing tens of millions of dollars of missiles that were already in short supply;
- Despite this, the Western media continues repeating obvious fabrications about Ukraine intercepting “all” incoming missiles and drones. The Patriot system falling victim to a Kinzhal missile despite firing upward to 30 missiles calls into question Ukraine’s previous claims of intercepting a Kinzhal days earlier;
- As Ukraine burns through Western weapons and ammunition, the West continues preparing to transfer other weapon systems including warplanes;
- European nations are preparing a “coalition” to purchase and provide F-16 fighters to Ukraine;
- F-16 warplanes have no specific capability beyond the aircraft that made up Ukraine’s original air force which is now mostly destroyed;
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