Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4153327/posts
“Ukraine Thwarts Intense Attack on Capital”
“The attack was one of the largest since March and appeared to demonstrate Ukraine’s growing capability to defend against Russia’s arsenal of aerial weapons.”
“Ukraine says it shot down Kinzhal missiles, one of Russia’s most advanced weapons.”
“Ukraine’s air defense intercepted six hypersonic Kinzhal missiles fired by Russia early Tuesday, Ukrainian officials said. If confirmed, the strikes would be further evidence of Ukraine’s ability to shoot down one of the most sophisticated conventional weapons in Moscow’s arsenal.
In one of the largest aerial assaults since early March, Russia also launched nine Kalibr cruise missiles from ships in the Black Sea, three short-range ballistic missiles from land and a number of drones, according to the commander in chief of Ukraine’s Armed Forces. All of the drones and missiles were shot down, the military said. “
“Ukraine intercepts missiles as Russia steps up strikes on Kyiv”
“Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 18 attempted Russian strikes on Kyiv early Tuesday including six hypersonic missiles, military and city authorities said, largely foiling one of Moscow’s fiercest attacks so far.”
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 15, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
Excerpts:
“I can confirm that the 31 M1 Abrams training tanks have arrived at Grafenwoehr, Germany in preparation for subsequent training of Ukrainian tank crews,” Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, the Pentagon’s top spokesman, said during a press briefing Monday afternoon.
“Those crews are expected to arrive and begin training within the next couple of weeks. As we’ve discussed previously, this extensive training program for Ukrainian crews and maintainers is intended to prepare them for their critical roles ahead in effectively operating the M1 tank and defending Ukrainian people.”
When asked why the U.S. doesn’t just leave the tanks there for Ukraine to use in combat instead of refurbishing an additional 31, Ryder said that “these tanks are intended specifically for training and don’t necessarily have the capabilities that they would need to go into combat.”
The tanks that will provide to Ukraine “are going through the refurbishment process right now,” Ryder said. “They will be updated, upgraded and prepared for exportability to Ukraine. Because we’re doing this concurrently, we will be able to provide those tanks to them in the fall timeframe to get them into Ukraine before the end of the year.”
The Pentagon declined to provide us with more detail when we asked for specifics about the difference between the training tanks and the ones that will be given to Ukraine for combat.
==
Aside from pilot training, the U.K. government today also confirmed it was going to provide Ukraine with “hundreds of air defense missiles” (of an undisclosed type, but possibly AIM-120 AMRAAMs from its own stocks, for use in the NASAMS). Also being provided are “hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200km [124 miles].” This might refer to new types of drones being developed in the United Kingdom specifically for Ukraine, as we have discussed before.
But it does not appear that the U.K. is also providing Ukraine with hundreds of long-range missiles as the BBC initially reported today in a story since updated.
==
The U.K.’s provision of long-range strike drones, Storm Shadow cruise missiles and potentially pilot training won’t change U.S. thinking on longer-range fires and F-16s, Ryder told reporters Monday.
“No, it doesn’t,” Ryder said when asked if London’s recent moves change Washington’s calculus on providing Ukraine with weapons like the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missile. “You know, as we’ve said all along, we’re going to continue to stay in active discussions with Ukraine, with our allies and our partners on what their most urgent security assistance needs are.”
On fighter jets, Ryder said, “again, I don’t have anything to announce today in regards to any type of fighter aircraft.
==
Putin sped up the process by which foreign nationals can become Russian citizens by fighting for the military. Instead of three years of service, Putin signed a bill into law that reduces that to just one year of service.
==
-—> F-16s Will Be Focus Of Ukrainian Pilot Training In U.K. <——
This summer, the United Kingdom will start training Ukrainian pilots to get them ready for future F-16 fighter jet deliveries.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/f-16s-will-be-focus-of-ukrainian-pilot-training-in-u-k
==
-—> Ukrainian Arms Dealer’s Experience Shopping At A U.S. Special Ops Trade Show <——
A Ukrainian arms dealer told us what it’s like trying to procure weapons from U.S. companies for his country’s fight against Russia.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukrainian-arms-dealers-experience-shopping-at-a-u-s-special-ops-trade-show
Excerpts:
Q: So you’re basically serving as a front person to bring Ukraine weapons and other systems that you need?
A: Yes. You’re right. So I’m trying to find something which is quite interesting. Then we help U.S. companies to organize some demo because if you bring something new, the first question from our military guy is like ‘okay, I like it.
But bring it here in Ukraine and I will test it.’ Why is this necessary? Because you know, in Ukraine now it’s a very hard electronic warfare situation. Russians are great at jamming GPS, radio signal, everything.
So sometimes you have no LTE [long-term evolution or broadband communications network], no GPS, no radio communication systems, or nothing.
And this is why the equipment - if you’re talking for example, about drones - needs to be tested in the real battlefield where it goes to the bottom line and we have some place where we could switch off, switch on some Russian electronic warfare equipment which we have in our hands and test it but we could not make it outside of Ukraine.
So that’s why we asked all producers to bring such equipment to Ukraine make some tests and then we could send this equipment back. It’s up to the producer.
==
-—> AC-130J Ghostrider Could Get Huge Upgrade From AESA Radar <——
An active electronically scanned array radar would allow AC-130Js to independently engage targets in any weather and at greater distances.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ac-130j-ghostrider-could-get-huge-capability-leap-from-aesa-radar
Excerpts:
The U.S. Air Force plans to test an AC-130J Ghostrider gunship equipped with an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar. Adding an AESA would give these aircraft a valuable tool for spotting, tracking, and engaging targets, especially in bad weather and at extended ranges.
The radar could perform more general intelligence-gathering and provide improved situational awareness, along with other functions, as well.
In 2015, SOCOM revealed that it had been testing the AN/ASQ-236 Dragon’s Eye radar pod on its gunships as part of an earlier CRADA. The pod was flight tested on at least one AC-130 mounted on a pylon under the right wing.
The AN/ASQ-236 features an AESA radar that is capable of rotating left and right along the pod’s center axis. It has a synthetic aperture functionality that is said to be sensitive enough to generate near photo-quality radar maps and to spot shallow-buried objects, such as improvised explosive devices and individuals in dugouts.
It also has a GMTI capability that is reportedly able to track moving vehicles and ships. The complete pod has the ability to geo-locate targets that the radar spots and systems required to keep everything cool.
Dragon’s Eye is currently primarily carried by Air Force F-15E Strike Eagles and F-16C/D Viper combat jets
AESAs have the additional benefit of being immune to optical dazzlers and infrared interference, which are an increasing issue on the battlefield
The Ghostrider is already in line to receive the much-improved GBU-53/B StormBreaker, which has a new multi-mode seeker system that gives it the ability to engage moving targets over its entire range without laser designation occurring.
A true self-contained ability to engage moving targets at stand-off ranges in any weather, which the AC-130J does not have now, would be a major capability boost by itself. An AESA would make this possible by providing the initial targeting and datalink updates for StormBreaker.
SOCOM is already exploring the possibility of adding artificial intelligence-driven targeting and other capabilities onto the AC-130J, as well as other aircraft, in the future.
[ New Russian Nightmare | They Weren’t Ready For It | No Antidote. Storm Shadow Missile Destroys Another Russian Base ]
••Day 446: May 15
The day started with yet another Storm Shadow precision strike on the Russian military objects in Luhansk.
The target of today’s precision strike became a dormitory on the territory of the former aviation academy, meaning Ukrainians targeted the areas of Russian forces concentrations. Local residents reported hearing 2 strikes and that the first one was without an explosion.
This indicates that Ukrainians continue using ADM-160 decoy missiles to trick the Russian air defense, which proves to work.
Russian officials reported that the building was empty, however, even the most prominent Russian sources doubt that Ukrainians are using their most advanced and scarce weapon to hit empty buildings six times in a row.
There is also a huge discussion as to why Ukrainians started from Luhansk, as everyone expected Ukrainians to unleash this new weapon on Crimea.
The biggest reason is that Russians in Donbas can adapt to the strikes the fastest - all they need to do is to pull back by 20 km into the Russian territory, and Ukrainians will not be able to reach them because, for political reasons, it was agreed not to use long-range missiles to hit Russian territories.
On the other hand, Russians in Zaporizhia and Crimea cannot just move 20 km back to hide from the missiles.
The supply shoulder is already extremely long, so Russians must keep their command centers, barracks, and ammunition depots where they are, in spite of the imminent strikes. So, starting from Luhansk ensures that Ukrainians can inflict more damage to Russian forces in the long run.
Today Russian officials also confirmed that Ukrainians conducted a successful drone attack on the Russian military objects in the Bryansk region. As a result, Ukrainians destroyed or damaged at least 5 pieces of equipment.
A lot of news is also coming from the Bakhmut direction.
After clearing the forest, Ukrainians started to ramp up their artillery preparation. A lot of Ukrainian fighters from multiple assault detachments reported about preparation for storming operation of the next positions on the line. South of Ivanivske, there are a lot of small roads along the tree lines, where Russians have prepared a lot of trenches.
Recently released footage shows how Ukrainians are using UR-77 to shoot a 70-meter-wide explosive charge to clear the whole trench network in one big explosion.
But Ukrainians are shelling not only the first but also the second and third lines. The goal of these deeper strikes is to destroy the enemy reserves and create disarray in their supplies.
Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance has already started clearing Kodema. A recent video shows how Ukrainians found and destroyed the Russian air defense system.
When it comes to the city itself, there have been a lot of changes over the last 7 days. Last time I told you that Russian forces managed to penetrate Ukrainian defense from the northeast and establish control over the outer building, which Ukrainians then blew up from a distance.
After several days of shelling Ukrainian positions with incendiary munitions and setting the whole western residential area on fire, Russian forces managed to undermine Ukrainian defense.
Their new target became buildings located along Levanevskogo Street. Ukrainians tried to use their tanks to chase Wagner troops from the high-rise buildings, but with such big fortifications, this tactic did not work as well and only slowed down the Russian advance by inflicting a lot of losses.
Over the last two days, Wagner forces managed to develop their bridgehead even more and reportedly established control over the local supermarket. A fighter from the 24th Assault Brigade reported that Russians also established positions around school #12.
In the southern part of the region, the situation is more stable. Ukrainians continue controlling Chaikovsogo Street and firing at Russian positions in the Industrial College.
The main goal of the Russians here was to penetrate Ukrainian positions past the college and hit the citadel from the back, however, they got stuck and continued to lose men in an attempt to cross the street.
Overall, while Ukrainians on the flanks are slowly engulfing Bakhmut from two sides, Ukrainians inside the city continue drawing Russian forces on themselves.
The main goal here is to push Russians to the point of no return, where even if they establish full control over the city, it would be a very sour victory as they would find themselves in a pocket.
The operation is quite risky, and there are several formidable fortifications on the way, namely in Klischiivka. The good news is that Ukrainians will be storming them from the highlands, which simplifies the task significantly.
The Head of the Eastern Group of Forces once again arrived in the Bakhmut direction, and it’s been speculated that he arrived with instructions for the second phase of the Bakhmut counter-encirclement operation.
••Bakhmut:
While the Russians focus on taking towns and villages on low ground, the UA focuses on the railroads and roads on high ground.
==
The Kremlin is preparing to declare Prigozhin a traitor - ISW. “The administration of the President of Russia is preparing an information operation to publicly discredit Prigozhin.
But while Prigozhin is in command of Wagner’s forces in the Donbas, his removal would violate the position of the Russians in Bakhmut, and Putin is unlikely to take such a risk,” the ISW believes. Therefore, the Kremlin will probably try to get Wagner under its control.
The reasons why they want to “remove” Prigozhin: his public attacks on the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, blackmail to leave Bakhmut, the recent Washington Post leak about Prigozhin’s alleged contacts with the Ukrainian military intelligence.
==
Russia 2-star announces that any Russian troop who joins the Wagners will get 15 years in prison. Prigozhin replied that he is a guy without the brains and a tongue without the bone.
==
Storm Shadow missile range is determined by a software setting - potentially they can reach 560km.
==
Even though Lukashenko, looking like a wax dummy, confirmed the shoot down of the 4 Russian air assets over Russia, Russian media is silent about this event. Local search for the pilots’ bodies has ended because there isn’t enough people to cover the area which is covered with swamps
==
President Zelensky said that Ukraine needs more time to prepare for counteroffensive. “We really need time, not very much. We will be ready in a while. I cannot share the details with you ... We must prepare,” Zelensky said during a visit to Britain.
Earlier, he said that Kyiv “needs more time” to launch a counteroffensive, explaining that Ukraine could go on the offensive now, but “lose a lot of people.”
==
Chinese envoy due to arrive in Ukraine to promote their peace plan because it is crucial that their puppet, Putin remain in power to supply them with cheap resources and thereby keep their Chinese aristocracy happy.
==
France, following Britain, will give Ukraine long-range missiles as part of a new aid package - Macron. France also has Storm Shadow missiles in service, but uses the name SCALP-EG for them.
==
Shows video of Russian testing a remote land drone, weighing around 2000 lbs, on some sandy embankment - as the thing tries to go over a sand ledge, one of the Russian handlers gets in front of it to ease in over, but the thing topples over on him. He manages to move out of the way just in time, unfortunately.
==
Head judge of the high court of Ukraine was arrested by the independent National Anti-Corruption Bureau for taking a huge bribe of US$2.7 million. Image of his couch with 45 stacks of US$100 bills. Searches are underway of all the judges apartments.
••Video of Kadyrov behind machinegun riding on a T-90M tank with right arm raised in a loose Nazi salute
==
Russians may have taken out a Patriot battery with Kinzal strike. As officials say the target was a Patriot system/systems.
I think we will not get the reliable information if everything is Ok with Patriots since it is a classified information. Hopefully Kinzhals were intercepted as before.
Is oryx site down?