Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4153133/posts
early in the war the russians targeted uke barracks and managed to take out 100’s of uke soldiers in one shot.
we stopped hearing about those kinds of strikes after the first couple of months. presumably the reason is that the ukes dispersed their men so one shot could not take out 100 men.
People hope that after the fireball at Khmelnytskyi the ukes in the future will not stack mountains of munitions and fuel in big warehouses visible from space.
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 14, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
Excerpt:
New satellite imagery of an ammunition and explosives storage site just to the west of the Ukrainian city of Khmelnitsky show that most of the installation has been wiped off the map.
It shows the storage area destroyed and deeply scarred and discolored from the huge explosion. The size of destruction is quite remarkable as the secure storage area is a half mile wide.
What exactly was stored at this site at the time of the blast also isn’t clear. It likely held old dilapidated ammo and explosive material that dated back deeply into the Cold War era, but some have posited that newer ammunition used to support the war effort may have also been stored there.
[ The longer one waits to do an offensive, the more equipment and ammo pile up; the more stuff pills up, the more likely it will be discovered and destroyed. Waiting still longer after a pile is destroyed invites other piles to follow in destruction, leaving any offensive short of vital equipment and ammo. ]
[ Brutal End | They Had No Escape | A Huge Group of Russians Get Taken Into a Pocket And Destroyed ]
••Day 445: May 14
Today there is a lot of good news from the Bakhmut direction.
Here, Ukrainians finally managed to starve out Russian troops in a salient on the southern flank and collapse Russian defense by multiple kilometers at one time.
Previously, I told you that after Ukrainians undercut Russians by moving along the canal and pushing Russians from their positions in front of Klischiivka, Russians in the forest were caught in the operational encirclement. Russian forces tried to resist for several days in anticipation that Wagner troops or Airborne units would conduct an unblocking operation.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the unblocking operation failed. Recently released footage shows that Russian forces tried to push Ukrainians from the tree lines in front of Ivanivske in order to secure control over the fields and allow for a safe retreat.
Russian forces even sent a tank to help establish control over the field and also provide cover for the retreating troops, but it was destroyed by Ukrainian artillery already on the approach.
In the meantime, the problems for Russians in the forest exacerbated by minute, as Ukrainian artillery also managed to destroy several shelters with ammunition.
It looks like Russians also lost connection and could not communicate with the mainland. As a result, when Ukrainians started their storming operation, Russians did not understand that they got completely surrounded and fought until they were eliminated.
Today a Ukrainian fighter reported that they completely cleared the forest. Later Russian sources confirmed this information and also reported that they lost 2 colonels.
One colonel was the commander of the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Another colonel was second-in-command. Both of them died from lethal wounds, so the whole brigade is now with no high command.
Interestingly, Ukrainian fighters from assault units reported that they starved out Russians in the forest so much that during the storming operation, Russian mortar crews could fire at them only a dozen mines.
A fighter from a different assault unit reported that they noticed a decrease in the Russian artillery fire on the flanks and speculated that the recent Ukrainian HIMARS strike demolished a lot of Russian artillery, so now they only have enough to maintain intense shelling of Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar.
Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense reported that today Ukrainians established control over 10 Russian positions around Bakhmut. The current setting indicates that Ukrainians are finally ready to start storming Klischiivka.
In fact, the artillery preparation has already started. Recently released footage shows how a Ukrainian drone operator noted how 3 trucks delivered reinforcements to Klischiivka, which were then destroyed by Ukrainian artillery together with a small ammunition depot.
Another footage shows how the drone operator spotted the second reinforcement at night, which Ukrainian artillery started shelling the moment the troops jumped from the trucks.
The Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, recently published a video where he explained why the Russian Ministry of Defense is lying about the stability of the situation.
He said that the Ministry of Defense is focusing on settlements instead of tactical positions, and in most cases in Ukraine, settlements are located in the lowlands and mean virtually nothing.
So, while the Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian failed to take Berkhivka, for example, Ukrainians are successfully moving along the tactical heights.
The same thing is happening right now on the southern flank. Ukrainians are moving along the ridge that goes from Chasiv Yar to Kurdiumivka. They have already established control over the forest and hills around the forest and east of the canal and are ready to storm two fortifications that are protecting Klischiivka.
If this attack is successful, Ukrainians will control a huge platform that will allow them to attack downhill and cut Bakhmut from the south. They will likely open a supporting line of attack towards Kurdiumivka to fix Russian troops while moving towards Zaitseve and Vesele.
••Bakhmut:
UA begins counter attack inside the city. Wagners sent to reinforce both flanks, leaving weak points inside the city to be exploited. Wagners took control of a part of the residential district, and the UA may move out of the rest soon.
Bakhmut is the doorway to the offensive.
==
Counter attack delayed by weather.
==
UA airforce releases the ‘official’ version of the shoot down of the 4 Russian aircraft: they did it, not us. Prigozhin agrees. Prigozhin confirms that Russian fighters and helicopters in the Bryansk region were shot down by Russian air defense.
According to him, all four birds fell in a circle with a radius of about 20 kilometers and offered to think about what air defense system could be in the center of this circle.
[ Keep in mind that this could well be disinformation to conceal capabilities to be used in the counter offensive. ]
Denys said those planes have Soviet IFF transponders and would not be shot down by mistake.
==
UK Intel Update:
Russia has over 200,000 troops in Ukraine, organized into 70 combat Regiments and brigades divided into 5 Group of Forces, pretty much as it was in Feb 2022. But then they had professional troops and reasonably modern vehicles and had been regularly exercised and trained in joint and complex operations.
Now their forces consist mostly of poorly trained mobilized reservists, increasingly relying on antiquated equipment. Many units are severely understrength, conducting very simple infantry-led operations.
It is unlikely that force will be able to withstand stress along the 1200km front.
==
The only big achievement of Russian forces has been by the Wagner PMC. The regular Russian army - not so much.
==
Russia moved most of its airforce north, to Orlando Airfield near the Finnish & Norwegian borders, from where they will start their strikes on Ukraine.
==
“Predator” was wounded in the back by shrapnel during his epic single-handed fight against the Russian hoard. But he’ll be fine after a few month in the hospital.
==
The UA may have taken control of Kurdiumivka, south of Bakhmut, but is not confirmed.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine eliminated two Russian commanders at once. The information was confirmed by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation
So, it is reported that the deputy commander of the army corps, Colonel Brovko, and Commander Makarov who led the battles in the Ivanovsky area, died.
==
Ukraine took the initiative in Bakhmut. This is a prelude to a counter-offensive, - Podoliak in an interview with BILD.
It will be a hot spring-summer season. We will see catastrophic events that will befall the Russian army. They will be forced to leave the occupied territories very quickly.
==
The UK will begin mass training of Ukrainian pilots in the summer to fly Western aircraft. Britain is also discussing with partners the supply of F-16 aircraft to Ukraine.
==
UK to give Ukraine hundreds of new long-range attack drones (more than 200 km) and hundreds of missiles for air defense - Reuters. All this will be delivered in the coming months.
==
France will provide Ukraine with dozens of armored vehicles and light tanks, in particular the AMX-10RC, in the coming weeks.
The country is also focusing its efforts on supporting Ukrainian air defense. This is stated in the joint declaration of Ukraine and France following the meeting between Zelensky and Macron.
==
Turkey to hold second round of elections. Erdogan is gaining 49.35% of the vote after processing 100% of the ballots, Kılıçdaroğlu has 45%. The opposition candidate is now only a few percent behind the incumbent. The third candidate did not make it to the second round. He said he would support the opposition.
==
The work for one butcher continues. “The head of Wagner offered to transfer the locations of Russian troops to Ukraine, the leak says”
“Yevgeny Prigozhin said he would tell the Ukrainian military where to attack Russian troops if they withdraw their forces from the besieged city of Bakhmut, where Wagner’s mercenaries are suffering heavy losses.
==
Germany supported Ukraine’s entry into NATO: the countries signed a common declaration. “Germany remains steadfast in its commitment to the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
Germany highly appreciates the determination and courage of the Ukrainian people and its armed forces in defending against Russian aggression and ensuring a free democratic future for Ukraine.
Germany will continue to provide political and financial support as needed - individually and through international cooperation within the European Union, the G7, NATO, the UN and other formats.
Is oryx not updating, according to Ukraine MOD they have destroyed dozens of artillery last few days alone
ISW, 14 May 2023:
“Key Takeaways
Russian forces conducted another series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of May 13 to 14.
Increasingly regular series of Russian drone and missile strikes (more Shaheeds, fewer cruise missiles) are likely a part of a new Russian air campaign in Ukraine aimed at degrading Ukrainian abilities to conduct counteroffensive offensive operations in the near term.
Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking around Bakhmut on May 14.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is attempting to distract from recent Ukrainian successes near Bakhmut by praising Russian defensive efforts against the Ukrainian counterattacks.
Former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin’s newly formed “Club of Angry Patriots” is continuing efforts to expand its presence and influence public discourse.
Russian forces conducted ground attacks northeast of Kupyansk and along the Kupyansk-Svatove line.
Russian forces have not made additional confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut and continued limited offensive operations on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces continued to fire on areas west of Hulyaipole in southern Ukraine.
Russian forces continue efforts to replenish manpower losses using prisoners.
Russian officials and occupation authorities continue to prepare for the September 2023 elections in occupied territories.”
@visegrad24 10h
The UK announces it will send Ukraine:
- “hundreds of air defence missiles”
- “hundreds of new long-range attack drones with a range of over 200km.”
DECOYED: Ukraine has employed US-made ADM-160 Miniature Air Launched Decoys in the Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses. ADM-160s may have been used in the recent UKR ‘ambush’ of a pair of Russian Su-35 and Su-34 strike aircraft as well as downing 2 Mi-8 Electronic Warfare helos.
$500 Million Worth Ammo Blown Up!
Like Rst ✊☠
@rst_like
The value of the ammunition stored and destroyed yesterday by the #RussianArmy in the city of #Khmelnitsky could reach 500$ million. Any idea of who paid for that ammunition? Wouldn't it be better invested in hospitals and schools in #Europe and the #USA or elsewhere?!
DETAILS EMERGE about UKR’s 13 MAY “SAM Ambush” of 4 RU aircraft. Of those shot down, 2 were modern Su-34 and Su-35 strike aircraft. Of the helos downed, one was an advanced Mi-8M TPR electronic warfare variant; the other an Mi-8 combat rescue platform. https://kyivpost.com/post/17094
From Kyiv Post: "In the hours following the crashes, Russian civilian social media – despite strict government rules supposedly banning the placement of most military-related content on the internet by private citizens – was swamped with video, photographs and from-the-ground accounts of a missile smacking and setting ablaze a helicopter above a village named Klintsy, another helicopter downed in a rural region in the nearby Unecha district, Su-34 debris burning fiercely on the ground on the edge of a forest in the Starodub region, and the Su-35 pouring smoke and falling out of control above the village Suretsky Muravei."
..."International air war analysts generally confirmed (AFU Colonel Yuriy) Ihnat’s account that probably a Russian strike element en route to Ukraine had been intercepted, pointing to confirmed Russian reports that one of the helicopters shot down was an Mi-8MTPR, an aircraft loaded with electronics specifically designed to jam and spoof air defense radars, including homing radars carried by anti-aircraft missiles aimed at Russian jets or helicopters."
..."Most reports said the protection Mi-8MTPR helicopter was shot down first as it – unsuccessfully – led the two jets and attempted to jam missiles aimed their way. Reportedly, after a Ukrainian missile or missiles took out the helicopter, Ukrainian gunners turned their radars onto the Su-34 and Su-35 to shoot them down next. When the Russians sent an Mi-8 search and rescue helicopter sent to search for the lost air crew, according to most accounts, the AFU destroyed it as well. "
..."All four shoot-down locations are upwards of 40 kilometers inside Russia from Ukraine’s northern border – a difficult but not impossible shot for Ukrainian crews deployed to the far north of the Chernihiv region and operating Norwegian-US NASAMS anti-aircraft missiles, the Russia-associated Donbass Today (DT) information platform reported. The maximum range of NASAMS according to open sources is 50 kilometers, making the four shoot-down sites theoretically within reach of the missile, were AFU operators to have set it up very near the Russian border.
First delivered to Ukraine in November 2022, the Norway- and US-developed NASAMS (Norwegian Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System) is an anti-aircraft system that fires a modified version of America’s best air-to-air missile, called an AMRAAM, from a ground launcher. Ukraine’s military has praised the semi-mobile launch system and tracking radars (all carried on flatbed trucks and taking several hours to set up or rig for transport) as highly effective, with a 100 percent kill rate."
Russia’s MFA in Crimea🇷🇺 @PMSimferopol 7h
“Today the #CrimeanBridge celebrates its 5th Anniversary. The strategic facility symbolizes the unbreakable link of the crimean peninsula🇷🇺 with mainland #Russia forever and ever!”
@DarthPutinKGB 9m
The people who bought you “Kherson is Russian forever” now present “Crimea bridge is unbreakable”.
So. The kiss of death basically.
@GeoConfirmed 11h
GeoConfirmed UKR.
“Claimed to be Storm Shadow strike in Luhansk.”
@DefMon3 11h
It’s pretty clear by now Ukraine is targeting the command of the Russian armed forces with these long range strikes. This is why we are not seeing huge explosions. I bet names of dead generals and colonels will be circulating soon.
#Russia is now visually confirmed to have lost 400 aircraft, helicopters and military grade U(C)AVs since it began its invasion of #Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
Full list: https://oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
Anecdotally, I seem to have heard more than 11 reports of Su-24 losses, but that is just a guess.
@DionisCenusa 9h
“#Moldova: The ruling party announced that it will initiate a withdrawal from the CIS because it did not help resolve the Transnistrian conflict or guard against energy pressure from Russia.
This contradicts previous statements by the ruling party on the gradual exit from certain CIS agreements that may conflict with the future process of accession to the EU.
From an economic point of view, trade with Russia has been falling in the last decade. In energy terms, Moldova now has alternative routes.”
(Apparently it is a hot button issue for upcoming elections in Moldova - alignment with EU or Russia. The ruling pro-EU PAS Party of President Maia Sandu needs to boost its lagging poll numbers)
Sounds like the decision has been made in private, to provide F-16s.
@bayraktar_1love 10h
The British government announces the forthcoming training of Ukrainian pilots in the skills of flying the F16 jets.
P.S: This is the first official statement about the training of Ukrainian pilots on Western models of modern military aviation:
Russia’s Crude Oil Exports By Sea Continue To Climb
By Charles Kennedy - May 15, 2023, https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Russias-Crude-Oil-Exports-By-Sea-Continue-To-Climb.html
Russia’s seaborne crude oil exports rose to a new high in the four weeks to May 12th, hitting 3.6 million bpd.
Nearly all of Russia’s oil shipments are going to China and India, with the rest going to ‘unknown’ destinations in Asia.
Russia has claimed it is reducing its oil production by 500,000 bpd, but as exports continue to climb analysts find that hard to believe.
(European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has confirmed that the next sanctions package over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine would include measures against third countries helping Moscow to evade existing restrictions, Euronews reported on May 15.)
@NOELreports 3h
“Italy, Germany, France, Great Britain. Returning home with new defense packages. More new and powerful weapons for the front, more protection for our people, more political support”, said a tired looking Zelenskyi.
@Gerashchenko_en 3 hours ago
The mobilized Russian man who surrendered into Ukrainian captivity via drone communication (see my previous tweet), gave an interview to Gulagu net.
The untrained mobilized were led by a Wagner guide, who brought them to the trenches near Bakhmut without food, threatening to kill them should they flee or get wounded. The trench where he served was covered in bodies.
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1658141654832893954?cxt=HHwWhMC-uZjD84IuAAAA
@vorobyov 1h
NATO SecGen Stoltenberg expects the Vilnius Summit to approve a multi-year program “to help Ukraine transition from Soviet-era standards, doctrines and equipment to NATO standards and doctrines and equipment, and become fully interoperable with NATO”
