“Beyond Ukraine’s Offensive”
“The West Needs to Prepare the Country’s Military for a Long War”
“As the Russian winter offensive reaches its culmination, Ukraine is poised to seize the initiative. In the coming weeks, it plans to conduct an offensive operation, or series of offensives, that may prove decisive in this phase of the conflict. This is not Ukraine’s only remaining opportunity to liberate a substantial amount of territory and inflict a major defeat on Russian forces, but the upcoming offensive may be the moment when available Western military equipment, training, and ammunition best intersect with the forces set aside by Ukraine for this operation. Ukraine is also eager to demonstrate that, despite months of brutal fighting, its military is not exhausted and remains able to break through Russian lines.
Policymakers, however, have placed undue emphasis on the upcoming offensive without providing sufficient consideration of what will come afterward and whether Ukraine is well positioned for the next phase. It is critical that Ukraine’s Western partners develop a long-term theory of victory for Ukraine, since even in the best-case scenario, this upcoming offensive is unlikely to end the conflict. Indeed, what follows this operation could be another period of indeterminate fighting and attrition, but with reduced ammunition deliveries to Ukraine. This is already a long war, and it is likely to become protracted. History is an imperfect guide, but it suggests wars that endure for more than a year are likely to go on for at least several more and are exceedingly difficult to end. A Western theory of success must therefore prevent a situation in which the war drags on, but where Western countries are unable to provide Ukraine with a decisive advantage.
Ukraine may well achieve battlefield success, but it will take time to translate military victories into political outcomes. The West must also prepare for the prospect that this offensive may not achieve the kinds of gains seen during Ukraine’s successful operations in Kharkiv and Kherson. By placing too many bets on the outcome of this offensive, Western countries have not effectively signaled their commitment to a prolonged effort. If this operation proves to be the high point of Western assistance to Kyiv, then Moscow could assume that time is still on its side and that bedraggled Russian forces can eventually wear down the Ukrainian military. Whether Ukraine’s next operation is successful or not, Russia’s leader may have few incentives to negotiate. For Ukraine to sustain momentum—and pressure—Western states must make a set of commitments and plans for what follows this operation, rather than maintain a wait-and-see approach. Otherwise, the West risks creating a situation whereby Russian forces are able to recover, stabilize their lines, and try to retake the initiative.”
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia-war-beyond-ukraines-offensive
“Today, I want to discuss and share interesting details about the inadequate training of russian troops. This insight is based on my conversations with multiple officers across the frontlines in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts who shared with me details regarding prisoners of war.
2/ While russian training was subpar in comparison with NATO armies even before the invasion, the quality of their readiness is much lower even if we compare it with February 2022. Several anecdotes indicate that some soldiers haven’t even fired a single shot prior to deployment
3/ The tactic remains unchanged - hours, or even days, of artillery barrages, occasional airstrikes, and mortar fires followed by what can be called “meat waves” - assault groups comprised of soldiers who lack training beyond basic, if any at all.
4/ The process of deterioration of the russian army is accelerated by appearance of dozens of so-called “PMC”, which are not really PMC but more of a privately-sponsored units by various businessmen, politicians and corporations.
5/ Based on confessions, it is evident that some units receive much better training than the rest of the russian army. Some Wagner units (not convict units) look down on mobilized units and do not trust them, creating animosity between the units.
6/ However, despite these issues, the russian army is still capable of advancing. So, the question is, how? The answer is quite simple - russia still maintains a significant advantage in artillery means and ammunition.
7/ Despite russia’s ammo shortages, their artillery remains the main threat, as it allows even the lowest graded soldiers to take over positions that were turned into rubble by intense artillery fire
8/ It is crystal clear that Ukraine can defeat such an army if we have enough means. While some people continue to claim that Ukraine has everything it needs, this is far from the truth.
9/ The reluctance of some countries to provide aid is staggering as this is the only thing that prolongs this war - the insufficient number of resources that hinders our ability to liberate our territories.”
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1656338769602019341
This war has been catastrophic for Russia and extremely debilitating to Ukraine. There have been important geo political realities that have been made apparent.
1) Russia has shown that despite its huge expenditures made on the military, it is a second rate, almost obsolete conventional power. It clearly cannot defend with conventional forces its rich underpopulated Pacific Asian territories or Siberia. This will have a huge effect on China and its relations with China. Ironically Japan and the US may one day ally with Russia to prevent Chinese hegemony.
2) This war has shown that the new and ever changing technologies and AI have made naval surface combatants and armored land vehicles obsolete. War itself will always be part of the human experience but its nature has radically changed.
3) Russia and Ukraine are being transformed by this war. Its peoples will come to distrust nationalism given the suffering and devastation that they have experienced in its name. International borders, religion, cultural pride and patriotism will all seem much less important or valuable when this carnage eventually ceases. The people will be disheartened and disillusioned. This of course delights the globalists. It is also why there have been no serious efforts to stop this meat grinder. “Let it burn, be swept away and then we will take possession and rebuild to our liking”.