Great analysis as always, Mr. Schweikart. I would add that the Democrats, because they occupy the White House, also hold the "chaos card" and could disrupt the election cycle as they wish. Another pandemic, a currency crisis, a sustained recession (depression), global conflict, or an assassination of the leading Republican candidate could override all of the fundamentals.
Also, what are you thoughts about a left-leaning populist candidate like Robert Kennedy, Jr. taking the Democrat nomination?