Ukraine: military situation update with maps - May 9, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
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-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
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-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
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-—> Chinese Spaceplane Docked With Another Object Multiple Times Data Indicates <——
A Chinese reusable spacecraft may have demonstrated capabilities that could be used to attack other satellites on a recent months-long flight.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/chinese-spaceplane-docked-with-another-object-multiple-times-data-indicates
==
-—> One Of Rome’s Most Devastating Military Defeats Was Masterminded From Within <——
Having served in the Roman army under a risky conscription scheme, Arminius’s ambush in Teutoburg Forest inflicted massive damage to the Empire.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/romes-most-devastating-military-defeat-was-masterminded-from-within
Excerpt:
During the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest, more than 10,000 Roman soldiers were killed or captured, and within a few years, the Romans would abandon their ambitions to add German territories east of the Rhine to the Empire.
[ Massive Flank Attack | They Ran Away When They Saw Our Tanks | Ukrainians Make a Successful Assault | Russian Defense Penetrated ]
••Day 440: May 09
Today the biggest news once again comes from the Bakhmut direction. If yesterday Ukrainians cleared up to 1 km of trenches on the northern Bakhmut’s flank, then today Ukrainians liberated 3 square kilometers on the southern Bakhmut’s flank.
The day started with Prigozhin’s announcement that Ukrainians launched a powerful counterattack south of the Ivanivske highway and breached Russian defense and penetrated it by half a kilometer already by 10 am. He said that he received numerous messages from his soldiers saying that the Russian 72nd Brigade abandoned their positions and ran away the moment they saw Ukrainians tanks and armored fighting vehicles.
He also said that the Russian Ministry of defense deceived him and, after the first day cut off supplies once again. Prigozhin raised the alarm and said that now the Wagner Group is not only with no ammunition but also with bare flanks, which Ukrainians will definitely try to capitalize on to launch the counteroffensive.
Closer to the evening, the Ukrainian side confirmed that almost everything Prigozhin said is true and showed combat footage, where Russian soldiers are indeed abandoning their positions and running before Ukrainian assault units even reached their positions.
It looks like the emotional buildup of anxious anticipation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive broke the Russian spirit, and they thought that staying on the zero line is sure death. Nonetheless, Ukrainian fighters also reported that at least 20% of troops belong not regular army but to the Wagner Group and that they abandoned their positions and ran together.
[ Shows several videos of Russian Troops fleeing across fields and through wood lines. ]
The assault was conducted by the fighters from the 3rd Assault Brigade. As you might still remember, these were the fighters that broke the momentum of the Russian advancement in the Khromove region and cleared a lot of trenches.
Soon they were relocated to an unspecified area, which turned out to be the southern flank. Ukrainians assaulted Russian trenches with tanks and armored vehicles and eliminated those who did not flee, which amounted to 64 troops when the report came out and is likely higher now as the operation continues.
As a result, Ukrainians completely eliminated the second Russian bridgehead on the western side of the canal. Previously, Russian also had another bridgehead near the forest, which Ukrainians eliminated around a month ago.
Prigozhin was furious at the 72nd Brigade. He said that his army lost 500 men to establish a powerful bridgehead - the positions were ready, and all the 72nd Brigade needed to do was to use the trenches and hold the defense, but in one day, they lost half of it.
Because of the collapsing front line, Gazprom’s Private Military Company refused to go to these positions as they did not want to deal with the falling apart front.
The problems on the flanks exacerbated the difficulties that Wagner forces are facing in the city itself. Today at night, Ukrainians soldiers reported that they noticed that Russians started moving into the grey zone, which made Ukrainians expect a huge storming operation during the night.
However, it did not happen because of the extensive HIMARS raid across the whole Bakhmut direction. It was reported that Ukrainians destroyed multiple ammunition depots, forces, and equipment concentrations, rapidly creating shortages.
These shortages likely forced the Wagner Group to reconsider its plans and go on the defensive, especially given the high level of uncertainty and the necessity to face the imminent large-scale mechanized assault or the counteroffensive operation.
••Shows video or 9 Russian running across a field and away from a charging UA tank in the wood line. Offensive was conducted by Commander Biletsky, a founder of the Azov Regiment, who now commands the 3rd UA Assault Brigade. He confirms that the 72nd Russian Brigade fled and was completely demolished in that area.
This was the first time that Bradleys were in action. Russians sent 4 BTRs with infantry, but were wiped out, 1 totally destroyed, 3 fled. These were Wagner forces sent to plug the hole left by the 72nd.
Assault was toward Klishchiivlka, south of Bakhmut and took 3 X 2.5 km.
==
Victory Parade:
As Putin and allied leaders enter in a group, the parade music begins. The opening music bass drum sounds like a gun shot; they all react; Putting turns and starts walking back; other allies mill around in confusion.
While the Moscow 14 minute parade warranted only a single tank, a T-34 from WWII, other towns and cities used T-90s and T-72s, with rockets, Tiger vehicles, but no T-14s
==
Zelensky, while talking about the newest military aid package, said there is something the package he cannot speak about.
==
Someone, far from the border sabotaged a SU-24 which burned up.
Applying the Three Part War Crime Test to this Trench Attack
No, it’s not a war crime. It’s war and it’s ugly.
Ryan McBeth, May 8, 2023
https://ryanmcbeth.substack.com/p/applying-the-three-part-war-crime-d70?utm_source=twitter&sd=pf
==
Pretty much good weather forecast on the south. Even though it is hard to predict the weather for more than 3 days. We all expect the counterattack to start soon, and the next few days will fit for the weather. Anyways it is up to the Ukrainian command to make a final decision.
But today General Zaluzhnyi did not attend the meeting with NATO representatives even via Zoom. He reported that he is very busy with military situation. It means that there could be the final preparations ongoing.
Anyways we will see everything in the near future …
Officially, General Zaluzhny refused to participate in the meeting of the NATO Military Committee at the level of Chiefs of General Staff due to the tense operational situation, - the head of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Rob Bauer
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine refused to take part even in the format of a video conference, Bauer said. Therefore, the military representative of Ukraine in Brussels will inform representatives of the NATO countries about the preparation of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
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US still isn’t going to supply Ukraine with long-range missiles - Politico
After reports that the UK is going to send missiles with a range of 300 km to Ukraine, the US position on sending ATACMS missiles, also with a range of 300 km, has not changed.
And even some White House officials “sighed”, thinking that the British decision would calm critics who demanded long-range missiles for Ukraine. Instead, Washington will continue to supply Ukraine with air defense systems, other ammunition and equipment.
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Japan wants to open the first NATO office in Asia
The country has rethought the situation in the region after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is already negotiating the opening of the first NATO liaison office in Asia.
According to the head of the Japanese Foreign Ministry, Yoshimasa Hayashi, cooperation with NATO “is becoming more and more important” because the events in Eastern Europe go beyond its borders and directly affect the situation in the Pacific region.
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The activity of NATO reconnaissance aircraft in the Black Sea region.
At the moment, reconnaissance aircraft Gulfstream G550 AEW of the Italian Air Force, Beechcraft King Air 350ER of the French Air Force are in the sky over Romania. The RC-135W Rivet Joint of the Royal Air Force of Great Britain also arrived third.
The activity means the increased surveillance missions by our allies. Probably before the counterattack… but not sure.
==
Ukraine plans to buy 450 medical armored vehicles VBTP-MR Guarani from Brazil.
It is important for Brazil to remain neutral, which is why it wants assurances that armored vehicles will be used exclusively for humanitarian purposes and will not participate in hostilities. And let the guns remain to protect the wounded during the evacuation
“the Russian 72nd Brigade abandoned their positions and ran away the moment they saw Ukrainians tanks and armored fighting vehicles”
The draftees don’t really want to fight? They’d rather drink vodka and play video games in Mother RuZZia?
Shocked.
That Japan news is huge.
Exclusive: Japan is in talks to open a NATO office as Ukraine war makes world less stable, foreign minister says
“Tokyo
CNN
—
Japan is in talks to open a NATO liaison office, the first of its kind in Asia, the country’s foreign minister told CNN in an exclusive interview on Wednesday, saying Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made the world less stable.
“We are already in discussions, but no details (have been) finalized yet,” Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Wednesday, speaking a week ahead of the Group of Seven summit, hosted this year by Japan in Hiroshima.
Hayashi specifically cited Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year as an event with repercussions far beyond Europe’s borders that forced Japan to rethink regional security.
“The reason why we are discussing about this is that since the aggression by Russia to Ukraine, the world (has) become more unstable,” he said.”
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/10/asia/japan-foreign-minister-hayashi-nato-intl-hnk/index.html