The house has the Semate and Pres over a barrel. This is a must pass bill or the debt ceiling is not raised. If the house holds firm the rest have to cave or the debt ceiling does not get raised and the US defaults on its obligations.
If the House holds firm... key point in your reply. They won’t, they’ll cave to something and the debt ceiling will be raised.
the US defaulting on it’s debts is a long shot at best. Even if the ceiling isn’t raised it’ll get paid through cuts that will never happen so someone will cave.