Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/4149544
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - April 30, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> Contrast & Compare: the T-14 Armada [The AliExpress Tank]: The Best Russian Tank Ever! [very funny] <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-opSlCGLGQ4
[ Fierce Tank Raid | Record Number of Trophies | Nice! Wagners Take Record Losses in 1 Day ]
••Day 431: April 30
Today there is a lot of news from the East.
Here, as the deadline for capturing Bakhmut is almost reached, Wagner forces started using much bigger assault units and captured several new positions by overwhelming Ukrainians with the sheer number of troops.
However, Ukrainians came back on tanks and, within minutes, obliterated more than 6 buildings that Wagners used as major fortifications. As a result, Russians had to create several teams of loaders to collect their dead after the fierce raid.
Last time I told you that Ukrainians started to demolish key Russian positions by conducting precision strikes. I also told you that such a use of air bombs and missiles already dealt a lot of damage to Russian logistics and forced them to take time to regroup.
The freshest reports indicate that this was just the beginning. Combat footage released by the Russian side showed that Russians are actively using tall buildings to target Ukrainian positions at a distance.
When it comes to 10-story buildings, Russians do not even need to get on the roof to get a clear view of the target.
That is why the primary target of Ukrainians became high-rise buildings along Levanevskogo Street, from where Russians have been targeting the whole western side of the city. Combat footage released by the Ukrainian side shows how Ukrainians conducted a powerful strike on one of the tall buildings.
Another video shows a controlled explosion of the second high-rise building just across the street. This particular building was causing a lot of trouble for Ukrainians because it was used by Russian snipers.
As seen previously, in intense urban fights, the front line can move back and forth quite substantially, even in 1 day, so it looks like Ukrainians conducted a counterattack in this region, temporarily recaptured the area, and set explosives.
The operation was conducted very timely as Russians in this region were regrouping, which made them more susceptible to front-line penetrations.
In the central part of the region, there are a lot of changes. Many reports suggest that Ukrainians left the Engineering Department and Medical College and assumed defense in the high-rise buildings behind them. Some analysts are saying that goal is to move closer to the main fortifications, while others are saying that the move was forced by the recent Russian advancement from the south.
It looks like the first explanation fits better because recent combat footage showed that Russians do not have tight control over the region.
The main goal of Russians was to split Ukrainian forces in Bakhmut into 2 groups, however, even after establishing control over the Industrial College, Ukrainians are freely moving between these two parts of the town due to the local geography.
The territory behind the houses is in the lowlands, making direct fire impossible. In turn, recent combat footage shows how Ukrainians conducted an unexpected raid on Russian positions and unleashed rapid and devastating fire from two tanks on two sides.
After the raid, the drone operators filmed how several Russian crews were moving through the area with huge wheelbarrows collecting corpses and parts of bodies. As the drone revealed a new movement in the region, Ukrainians doubled the damage by striking the areas of forces concentration right behind the Industrial college.
It is unclear whether Ukrainians conducted a counterattack yet, but one slightly older video showed that counterattacks after such raids allow Ukrainians to collect a lot of trophies from the dead.
The video shows how Ukrainians are disinfecting dozens of guns taken from the defeated Wagner troops. Ukrainian soldiers also published a video of another trophy, namely a thermobaric artillery system allegedly used in the Bakhmut direction.
Today the Head of the Wagner Group, Prigozhin, said that Wagner forces advanced in some places by up to 250 meters but added that it came at a huge cost.
He said that they lost 99 soldiers in one day of offensive actions, however, the figure is likely much higher, especially taking into account recent artillery strikes and tank raids on defensive Russian positions.
He once again underscored that they are taking more than 5 times as many losses as he expected. In a recent interview, he said that if the Russian Ministry of Defense continues to put spokes in his wheel, then the Wagner mercenaries will be faced with a decision to either stay and die or withdraw from Bakhmut.
Prigozhin also continued his efforts to convince the Kremlin to go over to the defensive in eastern Ukraine. He claimed that the Ukrainian counteroffensive could take place before 15 May and took an opportunity to criticize regular Russian forces for not rushing to prepare Wagner’s flanks to repel attacks.
It is unclear how much of it is true, but one thing is clear for sure: over the last 2 months, Prigozhin has gradually set perfect information conditions for an unpleasant surprise, so if something terrible happens on this side of the front, he can retain his reputation and deflect the blame.
In the meantime, Ukrainian commanders are setting information conditions for a surprise as well. Two days ago, the spokesman for the 10th Assault Brigade announced that Ukrainian forces are preparing for Wagners a huge surprise.
This was also repeated by the spokesman for the 93rd Mechanized Brigade and a fighter from the 3rd Assault Brigade, all of whom are fighting in and around Bakhmut.
••UA Assault pushed Russians back behind a series of lakes and the road near Kamianka. The contested area also shrunk by 2X, meaning the Russians are not advancing. They do not advance because all their reserves were moved to Bakhmut.
==
Bakhmut:
RFG, Shoigu, FSB, and military bureaucracy do not want Prigozhin to move up in Putin’s eyes by taking the small unimportant city, so they have not only cut him off from supplies, but RGF hospitals no longer treat wounded Wagners. Prigozhin’s only ways out are to take the city or leave the front.
==
Vuhledar:
The left flank where the Russian lost some ground is supposed to be very weak according to the map makers of Deep State. However, there’s a lake and a river that is hard to cross with armor.
==
The FSB wants to reform the RGF and get rid of MoD Shoigu and Prigozhin. The FSB runs their PR through the Angry Patriotic Russian Club itself run by ex-agent & war criminal, Streelkov.
==
The RFG, Shoigu, FSB, & Prigozhin wants the UA to begin an offensive, but Prigozhin openly wants the RGF to be defeated by the UA. This is one of Prigozhin’s way out, as then he will be Putin’s favorite and get more resources. Shoigu and the RGF want the UA to begin their offensive only in Bakhmut and defeat the PMC.
Meanwhile, the FSB wants both Prigozhin and the RGF defeated. That way, leaders in the FSB will take over managing the war. However, Putin is angry with the FSB because they misled him about the state of Ukrainian people, politically and socially, toward the Russian Federation before the war began. The FSB leader has said “many bad words toward” Putin.
==
Denys is afraid that the UA Pavlohrad ammo dump strike destroyed the ammo needed for the offensive. [Stupid to put so much in one place - but that’s likely the fault of the UA military bureaucracy which still runs logistics as the Soviets did.] This could severely cripple the putative UA offensive, even make it impossible.
==
There is word that the Russians will launch a 100 rocket attack soon.
==
Volunteers & engineers have launched a new project, Trembita - a cruise missile that is reminiscent of the German V-1 buzz bomb in appearance and uses a pulse engine also. Tube launched from a truck like an MLRS. But it only carries a 20kg warhead because they lack resources to make it bigger and better.
==
The video of the “innocent fisherman” floating between UA and RGF lines who got blown up yesterday, was actually packing 2 RPGs, but called by Russians “special boxes” for stowing fishing equipment. According to the UA Command in that area, he hit a mine in the channel, and was not struck by artillery.
==
Russian plastic bag manufacturers support the war by putting “ZOV” prominently on their labels.
@visegrad24 2h
A vote has been held in the UN General Assembly on a resolution calling Russia an “aggressor” after its invasions of Ukraine and Georgia.
122 states voted in favour, including China & Armenia (and Brazil and India).
18 abstained, including Iran & South Africa.
5 voted against.
How’s BRICS doing?
South Africa abstained from the UN vote designating Russia as an aggressor (against the Ukraine and Georgia), but:
@visegrad24 9h
“The Sunday Times writes that the South African government has asked Putin to stay away from the upcoming BRICS summit in South Africa.
The country will otherwise have to arrest him in accordance with the arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in The Hague.”
How BRICS doing?
@KlausRmer5 Apr 28
Germany to deliver eight more PzH2000 to Ukraine.
These are taken from Bundeswehr stocks and are urgently needed in Ukraine due to the heavy use of the PzH2000 in Ukrainian service.
(Posted to yesterday’s thread by mistake)
@NOELreports 4h
An explosion was reported in occupied Sevastopol bay again. Reportedly naval drones...
It is reported that Russian government planes are now actively flying between occupied Crimea and Russia, on which they take out valuables as well as their families.
Oryx now showing 1925 tanks
“Around 02:30 p.m., May 1, 2023, an explosion occurred at a Russian headquarters in the Zaporizhzhia region’s temporarily occupied village of Mykhailivka.”
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3703351-explosion-occurs-at-russian-headquarters-in-zaporizhzhia-regions-mykhailivka.html
“Inside the Race to Arm Ukraine Before Its Counteroffensive”
https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:eF01VOMHJ60J:https://time.com/6274688/arming-ukraine-counteroffensive/&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
Russian reporter: "We know that you don't support the current unlimited and uncontrolled supplies of weaponry and aid to Ukraine. Is it possible in the near future that the US policy regarding weaponry sent to Ukraine will change?"McCarthy: "Did he say I don't support aid to Ukraine? No, I vote for aid for Ukraine. I support aid for Ukraine. I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine."
"I do not support your killing of the children, either. And I think ... you should pull out. And I don't think it's right. And we will continue to support, because the rest of the world sees it just as it is."
The reporter has been watching too much Tucker Carlson, and didn't understand McCarthy's actual position. Now he does.