Previous day’s thread: https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4148528/posts
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - April 26, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> Daily Battle Maps by Date and Region, Showing Troop Dispositions and Movements: <——
https://deepstatemap.live/
==
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
The Russian military, the second largest military in the world, may not be what it looks like. Lies and systematic corruptions may in fact have dragged Russia into this war with Ukraine, which has been heavily backed up by the US and NATO. We will present the evidence, you make your own decision, because the Russian Army, is not what you think.
==
-—> Understanding Combined Arms Warfare <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ZOGdKANL5s
Designed to support the U.S. Army Captains Career Course, “Understanding Combined Arms Warfare” defines and outlines the important aspects of modern combined arms operations. This is not a complete history of combined arms warfare. It is intended to highlight the most important aspects of the subject.
The beginning of the documentary establishes a common understanding of combined arms warfare by discussing doctrinal and equipment developments in World War I. The second part compares the development of French and German Army mechanization during the interwar period and describes how each country fared during the Battle of France in 1940. The film concludes by showing how the United States applied combined arms operations in the European Theater in World War II.
==
-—> Combined Arms Breach, 1990 <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
What UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines. This visualization was developed for the Maneuver Center of Excellence and is closely based upon the National Training Center Breach and Assault exercise executed circa 1990. This visualization demonstrates viable Techniques, and Procedures as discussed in Army Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures March 3, 1990 for the conduct of the combined arms breach against a hypothetical enemy.
==
-—> How Many of Each Type of Tank Does Russia Have In Storage? <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PHUK6zkbpc
Type Good 2023
T-54/55 270
T-62 560
T-64 248
T-72 1841
T-80 942
T-90 50
~3,911 operational tanks in storage as of ~04/07/2023 | Ball park tank number.
==
-—> MiG-31 Foxhound Bursts Into Flames Before Crashing In Russia <-—
Footage taken by onlookers shows the MiG-31 Foxhound hurtling towards the ground while streaming flames near Murmansk.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/mig-31-foxbat-bursts-into-flames-before-crashing-in-russia
[ Advanced Aerial Warfare | We Must Come Out own Top | Last Chapter: Decisive Battle For The Sky Over Bakhmut ]
••Day 427: April 26
Today there are a lot of updates from the East.
Here, Russian forces realized that the use of regular artillery simply could not sustain the same rate of advancement in the dense residential areas and switched to aviation.
Ukrainian forces responded reciprocally and immediately conducted 5 airstrikes, reinforced air defense, and created mobile units that are hunting on Russian aviation from balconies.
Last time I told you that Russian forces increased the scale of the operations north of the Khromove road, which forced the Ukrainian Command to blow up the pontoon bridge for security reasons.
I also told you that PMC Wagner have a huge conflict with PMC Redut because the latter refused to follow Wagner’s orders, abandoned unspecified positions on the flanks, and allowed Ukrainians to recapture them.
The freshest reports indicate that these position were likely in the northern part of the village of Khromove.
Today a Ukrainian fighter reported that Russians are trying to take Khromove by any means, storming the northern part of the village at least 8 times per day.
According to the unconfirmed reports, Russian forces established control over one out of two trench networks on the first line of defense. One of the reasons why Russians managed to advance in the forest is that Ukrainians stepped back from Rose Alley.
Previously, Ukrainian snipers in the numerous 4-story buildings did not give Russians any chance to cross the filed. However, the buildings got gradually destroyed and became untenable, especially as Russians started utilizing 500-kilogram air-dropped bombs.
In order to get approval to use heavy air bombs in the city, Russian forces reportedly made an analysis and concluded that there are no civilians left inside the city. In reality, many civilians still remain because they refused to evacuate.
This is understandable to a degree, as for many of those who remained, their home is the only thing of sentimental, if not economic, value. The reason why Russians formally concluded that there are no civilians, despite clear evidence and continuous release of videos with evacuation by volunteers, is simple.
Russians saw at what cost it took them to establish control over garages, small houses, and 4-story buildings, so the storming of the last huge block consisting of 10-story buildings may simply break Russian forces.
In order to avoid absolutely devastating losses, Russians decided to just wipe out the residential area, and in order to avoid societal backlash for killing hundreds of civilians, they publicly declared that there are no civilians left.
By destroying the key Ukrainian defense positions, in particular in the high-rise buildings west of the military base, and east of the military base, Russians managed to enter the territory of the barracks.
Based on the current setting, we can see that the clashes for the residential area are going to start very soon, marking the beginning of the last chapter of the Battle for Bakhmut. However, the fact that Russian forces received a green light to use air bombs in the residential area significantly undermines Ukrainian plans.
Based on the interview with the Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Commander, it is clear that Ukrainians planned to hold Bakhmut at least through the first half of May.
But if Russians start leveling the city with the ground, then there is not much sense in staying there, and as the president of Ukraine previously said, in such cases, Ukrainians will immediately withdraw.
The most important and urgent task of the Ukrainian command right now is to solve the problem with air bombs. The first thing that Ukrainians can do is reinforce the region with air defense.
There is a lot of footage showing how Ukrainian air defense is shooting down aerial objects above Bakhmut, and it is highly likely that now the main focus of air defense operators will be jets and air bombs.
In the meantime, Ukrainians inside Bakhmut created multiple units, the purpose of which is to hunt down Russian planes. Today’s footage showed that they assumed positions along the perimeter of the high-rise buildings and monitor the sky.
It is true that air bombs can be dropped at high altitudes and distance from the target, however, it also allows air defense to detect a plane tens of kilometers away.
In order to minimize the risk of being shot down, Russians are flying at low altitudes. This is true for the whole front line, as Russian planes are frequently spotted in the sky right above Donetsk and also right above Bakhmut. For this reason, the creation of mobile air defense units is a very good idea.
But on top of that, Ukrainians also decided to retaliate in the same way. Yesterday, Ukrainian aviation conduced 5 airstrikes, destroying concentrations of forces and equipment and also one air defense system.
Many sources reported that in response to Russian FAB-500 air bombs, Ukrainians utilized American JDAM air bombs. By destroying the main Russian positions in front of the residential area, Russians will have fewer checkpoints to rely on.
The weakening of their logistics inside the city may allow Ukrainians to keep the front line away from the residential area, forcing Russians to focus on the street fighting first.
••Gazprom, one of the largest Russian corporations, created its own PMC, Potok (The Flow) with its security guard employees, sending them to the Bakhmut front as ‘volunteers’. Now there is a resource conflict with Wagner. They have more funds and can potentially displace Wagner from leadership of PMCs in this war.
Potok in Bakhmut, in a video, said they wanted to fall back due to heavy fire, but were blocked by Wagners who threatened to shoot them if they fell back.
==
Prigozhin says his PMC still lacks artillery shells and other ammo. Bakhmut flanks are still weak - held by RGF troops. UA is planing an offensive after May 2 and they could encircle his PMC.
He also complains about Potok, and about his losses which are 5:1 ratio. Prigozhin says with this ratio there will be less PMC soldiers, and they are unable to take Khromove under control.
==
St Petersburg military airport a single explosion was heard.
==
Andrei Kartapolov says its time to let Russian defend the borders because the RGF in unable to do the job.
==
Russian Mil-blogger, Strelkov, the war criminal, says Avdiivka is a disaster and cannot be encircled.
==
Russians started to bomb near the demolished Antonivsky Bridge, killing a local and wounding an Italian journalist from LA Republican Media Service. Saved by armor plate vest.
==
Russia has around 370,000 troops in Ukraine according to one source.
==
Zelinsky told the Chinese that he will only sign a peace agreement with Russia, if they give back the occupied Ukraine.
==
MiG-31 was the only Russian plane that can launch hypersonic missile - so the loss of one yesterday hurts.
==
More talk of taking a Russian city as hostage by one commander. Not official and very doubtful.
==
UA military Intelligence officially warned Russians not to attend the May 9th military parade in Moscow.
@visegrad24 2h
The Ukrainian counteroffensive is still weeks away.
There is just too much mud right now
@Osinttechnical 2h
"Kherson Oblast, Ukrainian forces from the 37th Marine Brigade conduct attacks across the Dnipro River with newly US-supplied APKWS missiles. Note the launch platform, a HMMWV-mounted MRL, effectively a miniature precision laser-guided MLRS."
Wikipedia: "The AGR-20 Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) is a design conversion of Hydra 70 (70mm, 2.75 inch) unguided rockets with a laser guidance kit to turn them into precision-guided munitions (PGMs). APKWS is approximately one-third the cost ($22K) and one-third the weight (32 lb) of the current inventory of laser-guided weapons, has a lower yield more suitable for avoiding collateral damage, and takes one quarter of the time for ordnance personnel to load and unload."
Effective Range (Air launched version) 1,100–5,000 m (0.68–3.11 mi) (launched from rotary wing aircraft); 2–11 km (1.2–6.8 mi) (launched from fixed wing aircraft)
@NOELreports 9h
“NATO countries completed training and armed more than 9 new brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Jens Stoltenberg said.”
This says “completed training”, not just equipment delivered. The assault force seems to be ready - trained and equipped.
“Russia has emptied out a Crimea base of weaponry, with officials worried Ukraine could target the region in a possible counteroffensive”
https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-empties-weapons-from-crimea-base-fearful-ukraine-counteroffensive-2023-4
Politico: Biden Preparing for Ukraine’s Defeat
https://thenewamerican.com/politico-biden-preparing-for-ukraines-defeat/
ISW, 27 April 2023
“Key Takeaways
The Russian military command appears to be reshuffling the leadership of command organs associated with force generation, sustainment, and logistics.
The three command organs that are reportedly receiving new leadership as part of this reshuffle are noteworthy because they are associated with managing aspects of Russian force generation, troop sustainment, and logistical oversight.
Western officials expressed confidence in Ukraine’s ability to conduct a successful counteroffensive.
Russian forces are reportedly using new tactics to complicate Ukrainian air defenses’ ability to detect Russian missiles. (Russian forces directed the missiles using different terrain features, different heights of launches, and multiple trajectory changes to complicate their detection by Ukrainian air defenses... ISW previously assessed that Russia’s missile campaign to degrade Ukraine‘s unified energy infrastructure definitively failed and that Russian forces appear to have abandoned the effort. Russian forces maintain the capability to renew their missile campaign if they desire)
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov appears to have launched a renewed campaign for national attention.
Belarusian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin met with Chinese Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Iranian Defense Minister Mohammad Reza Ashtiani in New Delhi, India on April 27.
Russian forces conducted defensive operations in the Kupyansk direction and limited ground attacks near Kreminna.
Russian forces did not make any confirmed gains in or around Bakhmut but may be transferring additional reserves to the Bakhmut area.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
Russian forces are further militarizing the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) to defend against possible Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
The Washington Post reported that leaked US intelligence documents state that Russian military leaders aim to enlist 815,000 soldiers while balancing concerns about critical labor shortages.
Ukrainian partisans conducted three separate attacks in occupied territories on April 26-27.
Watch out for the Anthrax.
Russian troops digging trenches in Ukraine reportedly infected with anthrax
Melitopol mayor says two soldiers were admitted to hospital and the unit quarantined, following the diagnosis
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/26/anthrax-reportedly-infects-russian-troops-in-ukraine/