Baklhmut still Holds.
“Russia is sustaining “1200, 1300 even 1500” casualties a day in its current offensive, mostly in Bakhmut. Killed to wounded ratio is one to three - senior Nato official, speaking on condition of anonymity.”
https://twitter.com/dansabbagh/status/1636757384843370500
God bless you and keep you for all you do!
Ukraine: military situation update with maps - Mar 17, 2023
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)
••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].
-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
-—> The True State of Russian Army <——
posted 2 months ago, 21.13 min
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KiII_2qabk
-—> Combined Arms Breach, what UA will have to master to smash Orc Lines <——
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZ-sCT_maAQ
———————————————————————————————————————
Extra:
-—> Slovakia’s MiG-29s Are Officially Heading To Ukraine’s Air Force <——
Slovakia has joined Poland in committing to send Soviet-made MiG-29 Fulcrum fighter jets to bolster the Ukrainian Air Force.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/slovakias-mig-29s-are-officially-heading-to-ukraines-air-force
Excerpts:
Heger confirmed that the Slovakian government has approved the transfer of 13 MiG-29s to Ukraine. When the last Slovakian Fulcrums were retired, it was widely reported that the final fleet comprised around 11 operational jets - a mix of moderately upgraded MiG-29AS single-seaters and MiG-29UBS two-seaters.
Currently, there is no delivery timeframe for the Slovakian jets, although unconfirmed reports suggest they could begin to arrive in the next few weeks.
Slovakia will ultimately replace its MiG-29s with 14 new F-16 Block 70 fighter jets ordered from the United States in 2018. The first of these advanced jets - which will feature the APG-83 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, a modernized cockpit, and conformal fuel tanks - are now expected to arrive in 2024.
Slovakia opted for a unique modernization program for its Fulcrums, resulting in the ‘NATO-compatible’ MiG-29AS and MiG-29UBS, with the upgrade being integrated by Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG with participation from Rockwell Collins and BAE Systems, between 2005 and 2008.
The aircraft received AN/APX-113 identification friend or foe (IFF), AN/ARC-210 radio, AN/ARN-147 VHF omnidirectional range/instrument landing system (VOR/ILS) as well as the AN/ARN-153 tactical air navigation (TACAN) system.
A Russian MFI-54 display and PUS-29 data input panel were provided in the cockpit. The upgraded aircraft, 12 in all, also feature a ‘digital’ camouflage scheme.
The team of researchers at the influential Oryx blog state that the Slovakian deliveries will comprise 10 upgraded MiG-29AS and UBS jets that will enter operational service, plus three non-upgraded examples that will be used as a source of spare parts.
==
Slovakia’s Prime Minister Heger also confirmed that the country would supply Ukraine with a part of its 2K12M2 Kub-M2 air defense system. Known to NATO as the SA-6 Guideline, the Kub has not previously been supplied to Ukraine as part of the post-invasion arms transfers.
Slovakia will receive financial compensation from the European Union. While the value of this has not been announced, Heger did say that another agreement with the United States on deliveries of military material is worth around $700 million.
———————————————————————————————————————
Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU
••Day 387.
Today there are a lot of updates from the Zaporizhia region. Here, Ukrainians broke the long period of low activity by launching extensive artillery preparation on the closest Russian positions to the main Ukrainian strongholds.
The artillery and airstrikes were immediately followed by a series of mechanized assaults, with the main goal of reducing the grey zone areas between Ukrainian and Russian forces and getting as close to Russian positions as possible.
Two days ago, Ukrainians started preparing for a number of assaults. They launched artillery preparation and shelled Russian positions in front of Robotyne and Novokarlivka.
Russian sources also reported about the Ukrainian use of aviation to complement their artillery efforts.
After that, Ukrainians conducted two localized assaults. The first assault was launched in the direction of Polohy.
Ukrainians reportedly passed Bilohiria and Novopokrovka and attempted to storm Russian fortifications near Luhivske and Novokarlivka.
Russian sources reported that Ukrainians used at least one platoon supported by armor.
The attack was unsuccessful and Russian forces pushed Ukrainians back by using anti-tank systems and artillery support.
The second attack was launched in the direction of Robotyne.
The available geolocated footage shows that Ukrainians assaulted an extensive trench network near the highway, around 3 km south of Novodanylove.
Ukrainians used at least two platoons, also supported by several tanks, and tried to open several lines of attack, namely from the highway and also directly through the field.
The video shows that Ukrainians managed to push Russians from the trenches in the middle of the field, but because their second group did not manage to get close from the side of the highway, the attack failed, and Ukrainians retreated.
Russian sources were unanimously saying that if Ukrainians started launching similar assaults in other parts of this front line, then these two attacks, near Robotyne and Polohy, marked the beginning of the preparation for the Ukrainian counteroffensive operation.
And seems like it is true because the next day, Ukrainians launched two more assaults.
The first assault happened near Novozlatopil, while the second one happened near Vasylivka.
Russian sources reported that these attacks were much lighter and that Ukrainians used several squads for conducting these reconnaissance-in-force operations with artillery support.
Russians also anticipated the resumption of attacks near Polohy and Robotyne because Russian trenches here were heavily shelled.
Ukrainians also shelled Russian positions in completely different regions, such as near Myrne and Dorozhnianka.
They also used several assault helicopters to conduct airstrikes.
Ukrainian officials, such as the Head of the Security and Defense Council, stated many times that the next Ukrainian counteroffensive would likely be in the south.
The increased activity along the whole Zaporizhzhia front line and voluntary imposition of positional fights by Ukrainians is a strong signal that Ukrainians are preparing for the promised big move in late spring or summer.
Some Russian sources are cautiously warning that Ukrainians may just want Russians to think that this is what they intend to do, but so far, the actions make sense.
At the moment, Ukrainians are attacking the most ambiguous areas, where a lot of territories have been considered as grey zones, especially Bilohiria and Novopokrovka, but also the southern part of Kamianske and the whole Huliapole line.
Reduction of the grey zones and formulation of a clear picture of the enemy positions is a necessity, otherwise, launching a counteroffensive out of the blue will come at a high price.
The element of surprise is useful, but when it comes to large-scale operations, a complete understanding of the situation on the ground and the development of a high level of coordination between the troops as a result of combat shakedown play significantly more important roles, especially when it is known that Russian forces have been building fortification to complicate rapid Ukrainian advances.
As seen from the map of fortifications, it is clear that Russians are anticipating the main attack to come near the Dnipro River.
So, the further it gets from the river, the fewer Russians have their fortification.
That is why Ukrainians are launching attacks everywhere and trying to reduce the grey zones along the entire southern front.
This means that in several months’ time, Ukrainians will be able to evaluate their chances for each possible course of action and pick the most promising direction to deliver their main blow.
Now the Russian elite have to decide if they want to continue to support him and face the same music or act, especially since the Russian Commissioner of Children’s rights has also ben indicted, Maria Alekseevna Lvova-Belova for removing 17,000 children. This sort of ‘deportation’ is considered part of genocide, legally.
Denys was surprised that it took less than 1 year, knowing how bureaucratic the Europeans are.
This could also be potential embarrassing for Xi Jinping meeting with and seen shaking hands with an indicted war criminal. Other countries will take note and could be less inclined to deal with China. And that is just the start of the story; it will get worse for Russia and Putin from this point on, despite cries that it is only “a piece of paper’.
With this indictment, Ukraine will never speak or sign anything with Putin. All current “peace” negotiations are dead. Denys says, “this war will, with 100% certainty, continue until Putin loses his power”.
And so it is a big warning for the Oligarchs that support him - they too could face ICC proceedings when all they want is to get ‘things’ back to normal.
They can share in his destiny, or get rid of him and not be prosecuted. Their situations will deteriorate and escalate. The pressure increases significantly; as long as Putin is in power, ‘things’ will not return to normal without sanctions.
If the Oligarchs understand their situation, they would act and the war would immediately end. If not, then they have elected their own suicide mission and the war will continue.
[FR Russian trolls, Putin supporters, GOP isolationists take note: you are now directly or indirectly supporting an indicted war criminal with your anti-Ukraine & not-our-war propaganda.]
==
The oil storage facility the Russians claim their Shahid drone struck, is actually a grain storage facility. This attack destroyed food supplies for the Ukrainian people.
==
Bakhmut Holds!
Wow!
@visegrad24 20h
Poland’s Defense Minister @mblaszczak announced today that Poland will receive its first HIMARS systems this year and that they will stationed along the border with Kaliningrad.
“A curious situation is developing in the balneological resort town of Goryachy Klyuch in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, between the town’s administration and PMC Wagner.
The town’s administration denied the previously approved request for the group to bury mercenaries killed in Ukraine, claiming that the journalists who come to report on the burial are ruining the image of the resort and its direct leadership.
Earlier, Prigozhin published several audio messaging condemning the town administration.
And today, GREY ZONE, Prigozhin’s mouthpiece Telegram channel posted this video with alleged Wagner mercenaries addressing the town administration. As you can see, they use rather intimidating language.”
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1637130834133020677
@visegrad24 5h
9 years ago today, Russia officially annexed Crimea.
The West didn’t impose sanctions that were strong enough.
A year later, Germany decided to start construction on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
Being a wanted war criminal complicates Putin’s relationships with all world leaders - even Xi, who is supposed to visit next week.
@geoffreyyork Mar 17
Putin is scheduled to attend the BRICS summit in South Africa in August. South Africa, as a member of ICC and a signatory of the Treaty of Rome, will have a legal obligation to enforce the ICC arrest warrant against him.
We get up and go to work, they get up and go to work:
@WarMonitor3 5h
Ukrainian special forces are reported to have destroyed 10 Russian tanks on the Donetsk frontline in one night using a variety of drone dropped munitions.
@NOELreports 9h
Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Kubrakov said that the “grain deal” was continued for 120 days (it was to expire 18 March). Earlier, the Russian leadership threatened not to continue it, or to extend it only for 60 days.
EU countries to sign agreement to buy shells for Ukraine
“Several European Union countries will sign an agreement on Monday (20 March) to team up to buy artillery rounds for Ukraine as part of an effort to speed up and increase the supply of shells that Kyiv says it urgently needs to fight Russia’s invasion...
The pact to jointly procure 155 mm artillery shells will be signed on the sidelines of a meeting of EU foreign and defence ministers in Brussels on Monday, officials said. First orders under the plan could be placed by the end of May...
The initiative is part of a plan presented by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell to earmark 1 billion euros ($1.07 billion) to reimburse EU countries for sending shells from their own stocks to Ukraine and a further 1 billion euros for joint procurement...
...knowing a major joint procurement effort is under way should encourage member countries to send more of their current stockpiles to Ukraine.
The money would come from the European Peace Facility, an EU-run fund that has financed 3.6 billion euros of military aid to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in February 2022.”
@visegrad24 1h
Canada delivers its next batch of Leopard 2 tanks to Europe.
After arriving in Poland, they will be sent straight to Ukraine.
Bakhmut Holds!
@visegrad24 34m
Ukrainian reinforcements have arrived in Bakhmut in recent days and are now counterattacking the Russians, successfully pushing them away from the crucial T0504 road (vic. Ivanske) leading into Bakhmut.
Heavy fighting ongoing with a lot of heavy equipment involved on both sides.
@visegrad24 3h
The internationally wanted criminal Vladimir Putin arrived to Mariupol, Ukraine under the cover of darkness last night.
He recorded a few propaganda videos with some paid actors pretending to be locals and then quickly escaped back to Rostov, Russia.
The Balkan War is over, Kosovo is independent, and Serbia does not need Russian Military support any more.
@JosepBorrellF (EU official) 16h
We have a deal
Kosovo and Serbia have agreed on the Implementation Annex of the Agreement on the path to normalisation of relations
The parties have fully committed to honour all articles of the agreement and implement their respective obligations expediently and in good faith.
The Telegraph: Siberia is up for grabs as Putin becomes China’s vassal
“Ultimately, Xi Jinping needs only energy from Putin. Even though Beijing can bargain the price down, they will be buying such vast quantities that Russian dependency on their market is assured, and the asymmetric relationship maintained. Beijing is also seeking to sanction-proof its own economy.”...
“Beijing can leverage its de facto underpinning of Russia’s resource-cursed economy to its own ends. Russia needs China more than vice versa, and Beijing will turn this to the best advantage it can.
The most likely outcome is that by degrees a war-drained Russia will fall prey to overwhelming PRC influence – a strategic transformation for which the free world would be wise to prepare.”
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