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Ukraine: military situation update with maps, Dec 31, 2022
(’Orc’ is associated with the various hoards of 13th century Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)

War in Ukraine Explained/Reporting from Ukraine:
https://www.youtube.com/@RFU

Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).

(Numbered printed material below - Some of the items below may be out of date, and not updated yet)

••Denotes Transcribed Dialogue. The entirety of the analysis is from a Ukrainian guy named Reporting from Ukraine’s daily video - I only transcribe it. Extras are just that - from other sites, or my comments marked (Edit: .... ) or { } or [ ].

-—> Current to date and past MAPS: <——
https://militaryland.net/
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Extra:
-—> Ukraine Situation Report: Missiles Descend On Kyiv In New Years Eve Barrage (Updated): <——
Sirens sounded for a second consecutive day as Russia tries to break Ukraine’s holiday spirit with long-range missile attacks.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-missiles-descend-on-kyiv-in-new-years-eve-barrage

Excerpts:
A large number of Ukrainian prisoners of war returned home on New Year’s Eve as part of the latest prisoner exchange with Russian forces. Among the 140 POWs were wounded, those who fought in Mariupol, on Snake Island, and other locales.

We have new imagery of two Western-supplied weapon systems not previously seen in Ukrainian service, the Canadian Armored Combat Support Vehicle (ACSV).
Canada pledged 39 ACSVs for Ukraine in June, the wheeled armored personnel carriers the fourth generation of General Dynamics’ venerable Light Armored Vehicle family.

On the far end of the technology spectrum, Czech fundraisers have reportedly met their goal to supply Ukraine with 15 Viktor anti-aircraft guns. These modernized ZPU-2 14.5mm dual heavy machine guns are mounted on Toyota Land Cruiser 79 chassis.

Used as either direct fire to support infantry or as SHORAD against Russian drones, the Viktor can put a lot of rounds toward the target in not a lot of time.
Wagner Group reported to be using T-72B3M and T-90M tanks in Bakhmut region.

UA’s T-64BM tanks appear to be able to survive top-down attacks wit their new ‘Nizh’ explosive reactive armor.

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••Day 311.

Today in the morning, British Intelligence issued a warning that the Russians will likely break their usual pattern of strikes in an effort to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian population over the new year holiday period, and as it turned out, they were totally right. Around 3 hours later, the sirens went off across the whole of Ukraine because the Russians, indeed, had launched their missiles.

This time the Russians primarily launched Caliber rockets from the warships in the Black Sea, and they also tapped into their stock in Astrakhan, near the Caspian Sea. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Russians carried out a total of about 20 rocket launches. However, looking at the videos of launches and traces, one can count more than 20 rockets, and this is where it gets interesting once again.

The reason why only 20 rockets entered the territory of Ukraine is simple - Russian air defense seems to have shot down several rockets once again. Today, shortly after the rockets were launched from Astrakhan, the footage was released of how one rocket fell in the Volgograd region. The footage captured only burning grey fragments of the rockets.

Given that no explosions were reported and that there is no shall crater on the ground, it means that the rocket was intercepted by Russian air defense and its remnants just fell on the ground without explosion.

A similar situation seems to have happened in Crimea. Here, the footage also captures how Russian air defense starts intercepting some objects. Some sources claim that Russian air defense is actually intercepting Ukrainian drones.

There is a theory that the Ukrainians are launching their massive drone attacks simultaneously with Russian strikes in order to confuse the air defense system. However, even though at first glance it seems like a smart move, there are a lot of problems associated with the implementation of this plan.

Firstly, the Ukrainians need to know exactly from which base the Russians decided to launch their rockets this time. As you might have noticed, there is some sort of rotation process between the launch places, and they use a different combination of places each time.

Secondly, the drones are much slower, so in order to the time it perfectly, the Ukrainian would need to know not only the exact place but also the exact time for which the launch has been planned.

Thirdly, the operational altitude and speed differences are still large enough to tell the difference between the missiles and drones.

Lastly, when the Ukrainians hit Crimea with drones, there was usually footage featuring them, which is quite easy to tell because they are loud.

So, for these reasons, I am inclined to think that there was no simultaneous massive Ukrainian drone attack, and the Russians just have some internal problems with their air defense system. In the meantime, some Ukrainian officials are also teasing the Russians with predictions that Moscow will spend the New Year in the dark.

After the Ukrainians struck the Russian strategic airfield in the deep Russian rear two times, the Kremlin decided to take no chances. The Russians are reportedly boosting their air defense around Moscow and have already deployed around 2 thousand people just to monitor the sky during the New Year. The Russians have several circles of air defense around Moscow, which they recently reinforced even more.

First of all, such a high level of alertness might partially explain why the Russians are shooting down everything moving in the sky, including their own rockets.

But apart from that, such a high concentration of air defense around Moscow inevitably means that Russian air defense has been compromised somewhere else. The paranoia over the security of Moscow may open the door for a lot of other opportunities for the Ukrainians, so we will see whether these opportunities will be identified and exploited.