Onset of the Russian winter offensive is going to keep me busy. But we cannot lose sight of other issues on the radar either.
Wuhan virus –
We already knew this, but now it is crystal clear. Fauci knew all along that the COVID vaccine could not possibly prevent either infection with or transmission of COVID?
Economy –
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), net farm income will fall by 16% in 2023, and dairy and hog farmers will see the biggest declines in income. The USDA said this decline will be caused by a combination of increased operating costs and lower expected prices for farm products. (FO)
OBSERVATION – There are some claims that farms/ranches had record net incomes in 2022, but the reality is those numbers are likely cooked to a degree. Throughout the farm/ranch news notes I’ve been perusing, they have had to dig deep to get through drought, high fuel and fertilizer prices just to stay in business. Cattle ranches had to cull herds because of lack of feed. Poultry still getting hammered by bird flu.
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Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Friday that Russia would cut its oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, or about 5% of its total output. In response to the announcement, Brent crude rose 2.5% to $86.6 per barrel. This follows an OPEC decision nearly two weeks ago to reduce production.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-cut-oil-output-by-500000-bpd-march-2023-02-10/
OBSERVATION – Russia playing another oil card in an effort to combat oil price caps placed on it by EU and allied nations. The total Russian and OPEC production cut backs were in part responses to the decline in demand, lead by China’s economic woes resulting from the wuhan virus shutting down factories and other production centers. OPEC production will likely lag when/if China gets rolling again – driving prices even higher this summer.
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The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is expected to take several years to adjust to last year’s shake-up, and high prices will spur the hunt for long-term deals, industry executives said at the India Energy Week conference.
OBSERVATION – Though affecting Europe more than the US, the US is being looked at as the big supplier, which will strain the availability of US gas in the mix as well.
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Next week the Department of Labor will release its report on consumer prices in January. Analysts are expecting inflation to increase over December, due in part to the reversal in the declining gasoline prices. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that gas prices climbed from an average of $3.21 a gallon in December to $3.339, a four percent increase. The American Automobile Association’s gas price tracker shows an increase of 4.4 percent. The average price of Brent Crude climbed from $80.92 in December to $82.50 in January, around a two percent gain. So energy is likely to end up a positive contributor to headline inflation in January.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The FBI is retracting a leaked document that advised the Bureau to infiltrate groups of traditionalist Roman Catholics who the assessment claimed were at risk of committing acts of extremist violence, the Daily Caller has learned.
The FBI tells the Caller that the document, put forward by the Richmond field office, “does not meet the exacting standards of the FBI” and that the Bureau will be conducting an internal review.
“Upon learning of the document, FBI Headquarters quickly began taking action to remove the document from FBI systems and conduct a review of the basis for the document,” the agency told the Caller. “The FBI is committed to sound analytic tradecraft and to investigating and preventing acts of violence and other crimes while upholding the constitutional rights of all Americans and will never conduct investigative activities or open an investigation based solely on First Amendment protected activity.”
OBSERVATION – Our govt is at war against Americans that hold any kind of a contrary view towards the policies of the current regime.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Drama concerning James O’Keefe and the board of Project Veritas. Don’t have any real opinions yet, but there is a strong odor of coup and the coincidental recent release of the Pfizer wuhan sting videos. Does Pfizer have an inside track to the board?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have kicked off an offensive to capture the Donbas region. Russia has managed to scrape up enough soldiers and vehicles/equipment to support this action. This is offset by lack of training, leadership and Ukrainian preparations for such an offensive.
As of now, they have the capability to make territorial gains, but have insufficient forces to attain the capture of the Donbas region.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Putin will address Russia on February 21, three days before the second year of the war in Ukraine begins.
It appears that the winter offensive is on – see Ukraine below on details.
RUMINT-
Gerasimov appears to be winning the political cage match versus Wagner Group’s Prigozhin. Observers note that with Prigozhin’s announcement that “The recruitment of prisoners by the Wagner private military company has completely stopped,” it seems putin’s favor has tipped back to the MoD. It didn’t help that upwards of 80% of Wagners prisioner fighters came home dead or seriously wounded – and word got out to the prisions. This seems to be Gerasimov assertion his position on the war and reduce Prigozhin’s clout.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
RUMINT –
Claims that all HIMARS targets have to be cleared by the US for Ukraine to fire upon.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The doubts I had concerning the start of the Russian offensive were quickly answered overnight as Russia launched a massive missile/drone barrage against Ukraine in combination with throwing ground forces at Ukrainian defenses in the east. These missile attacks are showing signs of being designed to shape the battlefield environment. Many targeted Ukrainian power grid.
Ukraine says that it shot down 61 out of 71 missiles. According to the general staff, there were about 40 Kalibr/Kh-101 missiles in the first wave, the second wave still being dealt with. The second wave of missile were launched by strategic aviation from the Volgodonsk region. Operational Command South of Ukraine’s forces reported that the Russian used three cruisers/frigates in the Black Sea capable of carrying up to 20 Kalibr missiles as well. Russia also reportedly launched at least 7 Shahed drones from Azov Sea coast. These numbers don’t include the about ten S300 missiles that hit Kharkiv.
At least 17 missiles hit the southeastern city of Zaporizhzhia.
Ukrainian Air Defenses in some cities in the east of the country were reportedly being overwhelmed by the large number of missiles that have been directed towards them. This has been the tactic used so far by Russia as Ukranian ADA has improved.
According Ukrainian military sources, Russia fired Kalibr missiles from the Black Sea which crossed Moldovan and Romanian airspace. This would be a serious violation of NATO member airspace. Romania currently denies the claim. The projected flight paths go over both countries towards areas in southwest Ukraine that were struck in the attack.
On the ground the main attack appears on several axis –
One is the Svatove – Kreminna line in the north, centering around Kreminna with the intermediate goal of retaking Lyman and pushing westward to regain ground lost last fall. OSINT analysts and others indicate that Russia has committed 2 motor rifle and 1 tank divisions along with 1 airborne division to this front.
The second is the Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts centering on Bahkmut and west of Donetsk city.
The third is the Zaporizhzhia Oblast region with assaults on Orkhiv and Vuhledar. Estimates that Russia has committed at least 4 brigade sized elements against Vuhledar alone over the past week – and were chewed up. Purpose of this front’s offensive is to push Ukraine away from the logistical routes along the Azov Sea coming from Crimea (parts of the land bridge Russia tried to establish to Russian occupied Transnistria).
Ukrainian sources are claiming that Russia has massed 300,000-500,000 soldiers and around 1800 tanks for this offensive. Others view these numbers as too high – over twice the size of the original invasion force. OSINT and other intelligence agencies would have seen the movement of such numbers into the region as they did the buildup to the initial invasion. Massive amounts of other equipment would have been tracked as well.
Even with the remaining conscripts from the recent ‘mobilization’ most still place the combat effectiveness of the Russian units involved at understrength. In the worst case these units are just the name. Case in point, the 155th Naval Infantry Bde that got demolished earlier this week in Vuhledar. It has been rebuilt three times. First after it was mauled in the attempt to capture Kyiv, the second after being mauled trying to capture Adivkia (sp) and latest destruction in Vuhledar.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia has concentrated military district-level asset such as the TOS-1 to the Kreminna area suggests that the Russian MoD is prioritizing this axis. Russia has apparently launch along the whole front from Svatove to Kreminna.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia is shifting its focus from frontal assaults on Bahkmut to the north and south flanks in an effort to cut off key resupply route that would also serve a lines of withdrawal for Ukrainian forces in the city. On these flanks, outnumbered Ukrainian forces are executing a mobile defense that appears to be slowing the assaults while inflicting high Russian losses.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Vuhledar AO. Since January 24th the Russians have committed no less than 4x maneuver brigades supported by attack aviation and massed artillery in an attempt to seize Vuhledar. These assaults have been defeated, causing substantial losses in Russian personnel & equipment.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Hits from the overnight missile / drone attacks.
OUTLOOK –
As noted above, look for continued heavy attacks around Bahkmut and the Kreminna area. Weather is iffy and may favor Ukraine slightly more than Russia as Russia is pressing into more unknown terrain and Ukraine is fighting on its home field.
Ukraine has had a lot of time to prepare for this. As the Russian disaster in Vuhledar come out, Russian armor/tanks will face being channeled into prepared kill zones. They just don’t have skilled armor leadership or drivers to react and will end up in a turkey shoot.
Russia missile/drone attacks will likely decrease, as it seems to take now about two weeks to build up a stock pile for major attacks. Remember from the start of the war there was heavy activity nearly every day for the first month or so. Russia cannot count on the same this time around.
Russia still hasn’t established air superiority over Ukraine, greatly limiting its ability to affect the ground war in any manner. Russian strategic bombers launch their missiles well within Russia airspace to avoid Ukranian ADA.
Belarus continues to be a non-player in this offensive. Eyes to the north, within Belarus, do not note any activity that would indicate pre-offensive preparations.
Russia naval activity in the Black Sea is severely limited to being launch platforms for cruise missile attacks. There is no threat from any kind of amphibious assault that there was at the start of the war.
The sustainability of the Russian offensive is questionable, the army is in a far worse state than it was at the start of the war, and if Vuhledar is any example, they haven’t learned critical lessons necessary to win.
Forecast heavy fighting with Ukraine being forced back onto deeper defensive positions. Russia may get some breakouts, but lack the tactical knowledge on the ground to exploit them in a timely manner. Russia may have a few more missiles/drones to toss into the mix over the next few days, but it is questionable just how many they have and may need to hold fire to restock to a meaningful level necessary to overwhelm Ukranian ADA.
Moldova/Transnistria -
No commentary concerning probable overflight of Russian cruise missiles overnight.
Belarus -
No indicators of any pending attacks into Ukraine other than the continued hosting of Russian missile and air forces that do shoot into Ukraine from Belarus territory.
Syria -
Quake recovery is taking priority over conflict.
Israel warns Iran not to try to disguise arms shipments to Hezbollah as quake relief supplies.
Turkey -
The confirmed death toll reached nearly 21,000 Thursday, surpassing the total from Japan’s Fukushima disaster in March 2011. That magnitude 9.0 earthquake triggered a tsunami, killing more than 18,400 people.
OBSERVATION – the number is for both Turkey and Syria. We are now well past the 72 hour window, and the chance of recovering any other survivors will be extremely rare and decreasing. It will cease being a search and rescue operation and changing to a recovery operation.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Though nothing specific in this topic, one can see the fingers of the WEF /GGR crowd intertwined with many of the actions noted below.
Wuhan virus –
The number of medical events that triggered official reporting requirements among U.S. military pilots rose more than 1,700% from 2019 to 2022, an increase the Pentagon says was the result of COVID-19.
Last month, an Army flight surgeon and prominent opponent of the U.S. military’s now-defunct COVID-19 vaccine mandate posted data on Twitter showing that the number of reportable medical events among military aviators rose from an average 226 a year between 2016 and 2019 to 4,059 in 2022, according to the Defense Medical Epidemiology Database.
OBSERVATION – DOD trying to spin this increase as driven by non-jab related incidents. The counter argument is that the rise coincides with the jab mandate and follows a parallel study in commercial airline pilots reflected in the reduction of FAA mandated EKGs that have detected increases heart issues from the jabs.
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On February 8, 2023, while arguing on behalf of fired NYC workers who declined covid vaccination, attorney John Bursch stated in open court that unvaccinated teachers in New York City were flagged with problem codes in their personnel files, and when that occurred “their fingerprints are sent with that flag to the FBI and the New York Criminal Justice Services.”
https://dailyclout.io/fingerprints-of-unvaccinated-nyc-teachers-flagged-to-fbi/
OBSERVATION – Again, the govt is waging war against its citizens. There is absolutely no reason to ship off fingerprints to the FBI unless there was an anticipation that it would be used against them.
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A study discovered that young people were affected the most by heart attacks during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Cedars Sinai hospital in Los Angeles published a study in September 2022 on the matter.
Researchers discovered that while acute myocardial infarction deaths throughout the pandemic spiked across all ages, the most notable increase was for the youngest group of individuals between the ages of 25 to 44.
The press release on the study explains, “By the second year of the pandemic, the ‘observed’ compared to ‘predicted’ rates of heart attack death had increased by 29.9% for adults ages 25-44, by 19.6% for adults ages 45-64, and by 13.7% for adults age 65 and older.”
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jmv.28187
OBSERVATION – The hits continue, linking the jab to heart and other problems. I think it is safe to say that this was well known early on, but the censors shut down study and discussion in order to maintain the narrative. This is nothing less than a deliberate infliction of health damage to a key demographic of the country, the 25-44 year olds.
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Dr Terry Adirim, the government bureaucrat behind the infamous and unlawful Pentagon vaccine mandate, will “leave her post in the coming days,” reports FedScoop. While she was in the Pentagon as the acting assistant secretary of defense for health affairs (serving as a Biden Admin political appointee), Dr Adirim, signed her name to an order forcing service members to take the emergency use authorization (EUA) vaccine. Adirim’s memo attempted to justify mandating EUA shots as if they were FDA approved, which was not the case at the time, and remains the same today.
She has yet to fully explain why she signed off on the Pentagon mandate, while displaying her medical credentials, without having the authority to sanction the mandate.
OBSERVATION – She is another reason why those who pushed the jab deserve no amnesty for their actions. Courts have ruled her ‘order’ to be illegal because the EUA shots were not authorized for use – PERIOD and yet they destroyed the lives of thousands of service men and women; some by dishonorable discharges (blanket rejections of exemptions) and others by the numerous adverse reactions and affects from the mRNA jab.
Economy –
SUMMARY – Economic analysts continue to try to guess what direction the economy is headed this year. Waiting for the January inflation numbers which some indicators suggest will not be pretty.
Invasion of Illegals –
The Florida State Legislature passed a law Friday expanding Gov. Ron DeSantis’ practice of flying illegal immigrants to cities and states primarily controlled by Democrats.
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More than 1.7 million economic migrants have been allowed to sneak across Biden’s border, amid the millions of migrants who surrender to border guards, according to government data shared by the Federation of American Immigration Reform.
OBSERVATION – I’ve noted previously that the magnitude of the numbers of illegals that have entered this country under biden will for all practical purposes be nearly impossible to seek out and remove. And that is under ideal conditions, not those that exist today with aggressive leftist ‘lawyers’ and illegal immigrant ‘support’ groups to complicate matters.
Biden / Harris watch –
White House: President Biden to visit Poland on February 20-22
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
The US Department of State has been funding a “disinformation” tracking group through its Global Engagement Center (GEC), which reportedly works at demonetizing sites it accuses of disseminating “disinformation,” - which are overwhelmingly conservative news outlets, the Washington Examiner reports.
The Global Disinformation Index, a British organization with two affiliated U.S. nonprofit groups, is feeding blacklists to ad companies with the intent of defunding and shutting down websites peddling alleged “disinformation,” the Washington Examiner reported. This same “disinformation” group has received $330,000 from two State Department-backed entities.
OBSERVATION – The globalist seek to silence opposition. This tactic has been used by totalitarian govts for centuries and the end result is always the same – deadly.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A U.S. military fighter jet shot down an unknown object flying off the northern coast of Alaska on Friday on orders from President Joe Biden, White House officials said.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the object was downed because it was flying at about 40,000 feet (13,000 meters) and posed a “reasonable threat” to the safety of civilian flights, not because of any knowledge that it was engaged in surveillance.
OBSERVATION – interesting, the effort to avoid calling it a ‘balloon’.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ground fighting appears to have slowed down a bit. Still heavy fighting though around Bahkmut.
Russia managed to scrape up some Iranian drones and a few other missiles overnight.
A couple of Russian Su-24 bombers hit Snake island with 4 bombs.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Vuhledar disaster fall out continues. In addition to the 155th Marine Infantry Bde being annihilated by Ukraine, the 40th Naval Infantry Brigade and the 14th Separate Spetsnaz Brigade were also heavily decimated. Russian milbloggers are reportedly in panic mode over the total screw up. Unconfirmed reports that Russia is now planning the long slog/meatgrinder campaign like the one conducted at Bahkumt.
OUTLOOK –
A slight slowdown in action – may perhaps represent a combination of poor weather combined with a sluggish (and skittish) Russian logistics tail. The fact that Russia has been unable to sustain their missile/cruise missile/drone campaign to support the offensive is telling as well.
So far it appears that Ukraine has been able to largely absorb the initial attacks with the only sector in serious trouble is Bahkmut. For Russia to succeed in accomplishing its objectives before new western weapon systems become fully operative for Ukraine they have to make more substantial gains at a quicker rate. High personnel losses from the largely untrained ‘cannon fodder’ conscripts/mobilies will further degrade their operations.
Although Russia appears to be exhibiting the tactical momentum, Ukraine can attenuate the assault and be in a better position for a counter offensive after the Russian wave has crashed against its defenses.
Syria -
Toll of victims in opposition-held Syrian areas due to the earthquake that hit Syria and Turkey on Feb. 6 reaches 5,116.
Turkey -
Quake death toll passes 24,000. This is being reported as in Turkey alone and doesn’t include Syria.
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For President Erdogan, the earthquakes could not have come at a worse time. Rampant inflation and a cost-of-living crisis has already hit his poll ratings and, as May elections approach, an emboldened opposition has accused him of failing to prepare for Monday’s disaster in a country prone to powerful earthquakes.
The disaster has also brought out accusations of mis-management of taxes to specifically take steps to ensure construction standards can withstand the level of quakes the region regularly experiences.
More and more evidence of building codes not being enforced by govt officials, corruption and graft by builders cutting corners etc are hammering the Turkish govt.