The Chinese balloon controversy has continued to “balloon” with a lot of unanswered questions as to why the military/govt allowed it to continued over sensitive military sites in the US.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The United Nations just sounded alarm bells about the rise of hate speech. “The rise and impact of hate speech is being amplified at an unprecedented scale … threatening peace around the world,” the authors of a Jan. 30 report wrote .
The report joins a flurry of recent warnings — by members of the European Union, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres , and others — about the rise of hate speech, as well as calls for the U.S. government to crack down on the problem.
OBSERVATION – What is important here are the definitions of the terms used. “hate speech” according to the leftists and globalists is that which challenges the narrative. Their demands for the US govt to ‘crack down’ is nothing more than an effort to undermine and eliminate our constitution.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The House on Thursday approved a resolution denouncing socialism in a bipartisan vote that fractured the Democratic caucus. The resolution overwhelmingly cleared the chamber in a 328-86-14 vote. The majority of Democrats — 109 of them — voted with all Republicans for the resolution, while 86 voted against it and 14 voted “present.” “Congress denounces socialism in all its forms, and opposes the implementation of socialist policies in the United States of America,” the resolution reads.
OBSERVATION – Sad that this vote wasn’t unanimous. This goes to show the subversive element in the congress. Yet even those democrats that voted in support (and likely some republicans) will vote for socialistic laws in the future anyway.
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On Thursday, the Virginia Senate Education and Health Committee blocked Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s bill that would have required schools to notify students and their parents if they won national merit awards and recognition along with other college scholarship opportunities. 7News has been covering this as a part of our Crisis in the Classroom coverage. The bill was introduced after several Virginia schools didn’t notify students of their national merit recognition in time for important college and scholarship deadlines.
OBSERVATION – not all components of the developing CW2/Great Divorce are bullets and burning buildings. Much of today’s activity is directed at splitting up the social constructs and subordinating the tyrannical over the masses. The actions in Virginia are but one battle in what we used to call the culture war. Here if everyone doesn’t get a trophy, no one gets a trophy attitude is in effect. Our children are a critical battle ground for the left and we’re seeing this from scholastic achievement, LGBT/Trannie “grooming”, CRT indoctrination etc. It doesn’t surprise me that the leftists in the DoJ consider parents to be potential “domestic terrorists” when they confront leftifst school boards and officials.
RELATED - The House Judiciary Committee fired off its first subpoenas under the leadership of Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), targeting a trio of Biden administration officials including Attorney General Merrick Garland over a short-lived memo dealing with threats against school board members.
The subpoenas, sent also to FBI Director Christopher Wray and Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, follow a series of more than 100 letters on the 2021 memo from Judiciary Republicans.
Garland signed the memo in October of last year, noting a “disturbing spike in harassment, intimidation, and threats of violence against school administrators, board members, teachers, and staff” amid broader discussion over COVID-19 policies and how issues like race and gender are addressed at school.
OBSERVATION – Old action by the DoJ but not closed out or repudiated by Garland – his memo still stands.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
For the last 5 months, USS George H. W. Bush has remained in the Mediterranean Sea amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
China –
Following the bouncing balloon.
A second Chinese “surveillance balloon” was spotted flying over Latin America after another one traveling across the continental U.S. was detected earlier in the day, officials confirmed Friday evening.
Another was reported over Canada on Friday.
China’s foreign ministry has accused American officials of excessively “hyping” the balloon incident.
Top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi said: “China is a responsible country and has always strictly abided by international law. We do not accept any groundless speculation and hype.
Earlier a senior Pentagon official flatly rejected Beijing’s claims that a Chinese airship spotted flying over sensitive US military sites was a meteorological research balloon.
Defense officials have said the balloon’s flight path had taken it over “a number of sensitive” military sites, including the Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana, which houses 150 nuclear warheads.
On Friday, US secretary of state Antony Blinken postponed a planned trip to China after Beijing admitted ownership of the balloon.
Late yesterday (Friday), a video alleging that something was “shot down” went viral on the interwebs.
OBSERVATION – Classical “in your face” actions by China. Far cheaper than a spy satellite and yet capable of producing quality intelligence. We’ve probably all see the photos of the rig, the multi-solar panel cargo of the balloon that is about the size of three school busses (and the balloon much larger). Navigation as other balloons navigate, by adjusting altitude to the prevailing wind directions – just like human operated balloons do. There are adequate, open source data on current and projected wind speeds and directions that China (or anyone else could access) to do the initial planning for such a flight. NOTE this balloon drifted over the 150 Minuteman III missile silos before moving on to Missouri where our B2 bombers are stationed.
The clown circus at the Pentagon and WH is only adding to China’s glee. It could have been shot down by a missile armed aircraft and very little potential collaterial damage on the ground (its central/eastern Montana for heavens sake with population density in the range of multiple square miles per person).
To address the viral video – it’s a nothing burger and may well be a hoax. Close viewing of the video shows the object moving very slowly with the contrail roughly parallel to the cloud deck. Seems the video shooter was the only one who heard an ‘explosion’. No Nat’l Guard deployments (as claimed) nor fighter jets were operating. The one thing I will note is that the contrail is different in some appearances to what one would consider a standard contrail, but the thick cirrostratus clouds would indicate the contrail would be substantial as cloud creation conditions were apparently good at that altitude.
See Miscellaneous below on my view of a future EMP threat from a balloon.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations has shifted from latter half of January more towards end of March at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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RUMINT-
Leaked emails reveal that a Kremlin-linked lobbying group offered payments to several European politicians to promote pro-Russia policies. Legitimizing the annexation of Crimea being chief among them
Kerch Bridge update –
Big fire at the bridge constructions plant in Belgorod region of Russia. It has been reported that this plant is constructing trusses for the Kerch Strait bridge.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- General staff of Armed forces of Ukraine estimates Russian losses at 130,590. IIRC other western intelligence reports I noted this week have the number around 200K.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Mostly Russian artillery strikes, with Russian ground attacks in the Bahkmut and Kreminna areas.
Very little Russian artillery activity opposite Zaporizhia Oblast LOC.
OUTLOOK ——
Activity continues to resemble an operational pause by both sides. Gerasimov appears to be getting his cats under control and not being wasted in brutal frontal attacks and he may be just launching spoiling attacks at this time just to keep Ukraine pinned down.
Region is now overdue for the missile / drone attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure that were so prevalent in Dec-Jan. Could be evidence that Russia is trying to build up a stockpile for use when they kick off their offensive.
Misc of Note –
HIGH ALTITUDE BALLOONS AND THE NUCLEAR/EMP THREAT.
BLUF - The magnitude of the effect of an EMP attack on the United States, or any similar advanced country, will remain unknown until one actually happens.
“It is important to emphasize that, although EMP attacks affecting all of the continental United States are possible, smaller regional EMP attacks, launched to lower altitudes with a smaller missile or with a high-altitude balloon are probably much more likely. These lower altitude attacks would affect a much smaller area, and would probably be of a much smaller intensity, but could still be very damaging to data centers and other facilities with a high reliance upon microelectronics.”
http://www.futurescience.com/emp.html
High-altitude balloons, such as the one China has floated over mountain state military bases this week, are considered a key “delivery platform” for secret nuclear strikes on America’s electric grid, according to intelligence officials.
Spy balloons, used by Japan to drop bombs during World War II, are now far more sophisticated, can fly at up to 200,000 feet, evade detection, and can carry a small nuclear bomb that, if exploded in the atmosphere, would shut down the grid and wipe out electronics in a many-state-wide area.
The threat of balloon-launched electromagnetic pulse attacks was warned about by a congressional EMP commission and inside the military several years ago.”
“In a 2015 report for the American Leadership & Policy Foundation, Air Force Maj. David Stuckenberg, one of the nation’s leading EMP experts, wrote extensively about the threat balloons carrying bombs pose to national security.
“Using a balloon as a WMD/WME platform could provide adversaries with a pallet of altitudes and payload options with which to maximize offensive effects against the U.S.,” he wrote in the report.”
To allow a balloon of this size and potential to float into our controlled airspace unchallenged is a disastrous policy and I do think that this would be a test of an asymmetrical attack vector that China could use. The construction of the balloon system is sophisticated enough to potentially carry a small nuclear device. As noted above, a regional EMP attack via high altitude balloon is a scenario that has been considered credible threat. But before all the uneducated bleating on Nuclear EMPs, please take the time to at least read through the Future Science article linked above.
In the future, such balloons should be shot down upon detection. But our current military leadership and WH are too stupid to come to that common sense conclusion. China will likely continue to use such balloons to perfect potential, unconventional delivery methods (as there are two others reportedly in the air).
http://www.futurescience.com/emp.html
High-altitude balloons, such as the one China has floated over mountain state military bases this week, are considered a key “delivery platform” for secret nuclear strikes on America’s electric grid, according to intelligence officials.
An EMP attack we have NOT planned for after all these years of 'knowing'? A bio-weapon drop? Not this time. That's for later.
So why float it now?
Aside from the multiple collections?
It's more than a cold shoulder to Wynken Blynken and nodding off... More than shaming us and testing the waters? To help Biden - "Look! Something shiny" ... Laptop. Chinese money Hunter and colleges. Think Tanks. "Look! Something shiny" . Ukraine? More files? Compromised FBI Internal spies. "Look! Something shiny"
It's a bird, it's a plane, it's a big yellow submarine... no, no it's a big yellow distraction!
Kinda a short post today. Interweb feed swamped with coverage of the Chinese balloon fiasco. More importantly is Russian force disposition is becoming more apparent and it seems they may be rushing matters to gain the initiative before new western weapons can be incorporated into the Ukrainian arsenal. I expect OSINT analysis of this to significantly increase as the month goes forward.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Food prices jumped 11.3% over the last 12 months, many families are struggling. The New Zealand government response is punitive climate taxes and regulations on food production. Cows are the new villain to globalists because of the methane that reportedly produce. NZ has issued draconian regulation to reduce the amount of methane produced. Some farmers will need to reduce their herds to meet those targets, which many worry could drive them out of business. Government modeling suggests that by 2030, sheep and beef revenue would drop by around 20 percent — making many farms nonviable.
Socialists always find a way to kill agricultural production. The US baby formula shortage was due to government meddling. In Netherlands, socialist politicians ordered police to shoot at farmers, to enforce draconian climate action inspired fertiliser rules. Sri Lankan socialists caused a food crisis and economic crash, by implementing country wide organic farming, banning imports of fertiliser and agricultural chemicals, a move which at the time was celebrated by Western greens.
Climate change is just the latest socialist excuse for meddling. Their endless interference, taxes and pointless regulations, the conceited bureaucratic conviction that they know better than people who work the land or manage the factories, always eventually breaks something important, like people’s ability to buy enough food to feed themselves.
OBSERVATION – NZ has a food price crisis and they only want to make things worse. The trend is already well established. First globalists want to drastically reduce the global population. This may well be seen by the medical tyranny forcing the jabs that in themselves (if the trends continue) could kill/cripple more than the wuhan virus ever did.
Second and the subject of his item, the attack on food production. As noted
above, removal of productive farm lands, culling of herds, lack of fertilizer, sky high fuel costs, etc will lead to long term food shortages and in the short term localized famines. This will push resource wars, killing even more.
Georgia Guidestones noted a 500 million population to be desired. WEF attendees noted wanting a 50% reduction in the global population by 2030.
Wuhan virus –
More and more evidence that the effects of the mRNA jabs are decimating human immunodefenses and now appear to be able to shed produced the virus spikes to unjabbed individuals. Many are already there, but I am drifting to the view that this is a bioweapon given the fierceness it has been defended and attempts to quash any revelations of its actual nature and activity in the human body.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden’s State of the Union address is scheduled for Tuesday. How low will the viewing go?
POLITICAL FRONT –
The Democratic National Committee has decided to make South Carolina the first voting state for their 2024 presidential primary, a decision it said was made in part to prioritize non-white voters.
OBSERVATION – Not sure how well this will fly, but for the democrat sheeple they may hardly notice.
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Department of Justice claims the classified documents Joe Biden illegally stored at his various homes and offices are too sensitive for members of the House intelligence committee to review.
OBSERVATION – That claim will not hold water – considering they raised no complaint over biden’s attorneys handling them. Just another delay tactic that has been perfected by the democrats over the years.
China –
Following the bouncing balloon.
Well, it was shot down in coastal waters off S Carolina yesterday, and a recovery effort is underway to retrieve the pieces.
China expressed its “strong dissatisfaction and protest” against the US shooting down of its spy balloon, saying the US was “overreacting” and it reserved the right to “take further actions” and criticized the U.S. for “an obvious overreaction and a serious violation of international practice.”
What is more disturbing is that the regime attempted to keep the overflight under wraps, until it was exposed by a photographer in Montana. Bloomberg reports the Biden admin was first aware the Chinese spy balloon entered U.S. airspace one week ago on Saturday, 28th, and had opted not to inform the American public about it until the Billings Gazette published a photo of the balloon on Thursday.
Biden was reportedly briefed on the incursion on the Saturday, 28th of Jan when it first entered US airspace over Alaska. The balloon reentered US airspace over N Idaho on Tuesday. The ‘decision’ to shoot down was made on Wednesday but the pentagon got it delayed until yesterday (safety).
The US military claims it was gathering intelligence from the balloon and was blocking (suspect jamming) the sensor package’s data back to China. Military flight trackers noted a number of airborne intelligence collection (SIGINT) platforms circling the balloon after it was revealed. However, with the balloon operating a considerable height above these airborne assets, it is questionable just how effective any jamming may have been.
Now confirmed presence of another balloon passing over central/south America and rumored third off the Canadian coast in the Pacific has many wondering just what is up. Evidence is that China has been using balloons like this for some time now – particularly over Guam and other Pacific bases.
OBSERVATION – The biden regime and our pampered princes in the Pentagon managed to create a dumpster fire if epic proportions in how it handled this. This was not just a “balloon” but a deliberate intrusion into our sovereign airspace and the indifference they displayed in handling it made us the laughing stock of the world.
I seriously question their statement that they were able to jam comms from the balloon – The airborne assets noted flying around it are known to be collectors and note EW platforms. So most likely the balloon got its data passed back to China.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are likely setting conditions to reach the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) and relatively dryer conditions. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister stated that Russian forces have committed a substantial portion of their forces to offensive operations against Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses in the past week but that they have been unsuccessful. Fighting locally there has reportedly been fierce. In order to support the Bahkmut assault, Russian forces are reportedly neglecting frontlines around Donetsk City.
OSINT analysts are noting an increase in concentrating troops and military equipment by Russia in the Bakhmut region as well as in the Kreminna region.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia is added 30,000 troops in the greater Mariupol area in the south. They could be associated with a Russia attempted an offensive in the Vuhledar region, Zaporizhia Oblast over the course of last week and by unconfirmed reports by both Russian and Ukraine sources got hit pretty hard. One Russian unit, the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was decimated once again, same unit that lost 50% of its forces in another battle several months ago.
Russia over the past week has attempted some counter-offensive operations around Kreminna, possibly in a move to position forces in more favorable jumping off positions for the anticipated Russian offensive later this winter/early spring.
OUTLOOK ——
Russian forces have committed a substantial portion of their forces to offensive operations in the direction of Bakhmut intending to break through Ukrainian defenses. It appears that the Russian plans for their offensive may well be concentrated on the Bakhmut – Kreminna line as the most direct assault route to capture Donbas. Kreminna – Svatove line also is critical for Russia to supply materials to the northern flank of the assault – so they must secure that region as well.
Some analysts are suggesting that the Russian efforts in Bakhmut and Kreminna are designed to eventually encircle Siversk when their offensive kicks off. It is a key transportation hub that would facilitate Russian logistical needs in taking Donbas.
A Ukrainian military officer reported that Russian forces continue to bring in artillery and infantry personnel into the Vuhledar area and are likely preparing for the slow grinding assaults characteristic of Russian offensives in the rest of eastern Ukraine. This sector may provide a secondary assault or may be reflecting concerns over a Ukrainian offensive into Crimea.
Some are questioning Russia’s ability to launch a fully supported and coordinated effort on the scale necessary to capture Donbas. The attrition of trained forces since last February and the loss of a thousands of tanks and armored vehicles and artillery is a difficult hurdle to overcome. Futher, command and control issues haven’t been resolved, in fact have been made worse by the entry of HIMARS and rapid targeting into the equation. Losses of officers and NCOs only make matters worse.
Iran –
Iran’s supreme leader on Sunday reportedly ordered an amnesty or reduction in prison sentences for “tens of thousands” of people detained amid nationwide anti-government protests shaking the country, acknowledging for the first time the scale of the crackdown.
The decree by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, part of a yearly pardoning the supreme leader does before the anniversary of Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution, comes as authorities have yet to say how many people they detained in the demonstrations. State media offered a list of caveats over the order as well that means those with ties abroad or facing internationally criticized spying charges wouldn’t be eligible.
More than 19,600 people have been arrested during the protests, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that’s been tracking the crackdown. At least 527 people have been killed as authorities violently suppressed demonstrations, the group said. Iran hasn’t offered a death toll for months. It already has executed at least four people detained amid the protests after internationally criticized trials.
OBSERVATION - An indicator of the scale of the govt crackdown on the protests and likely an attempt to cool the opposition to the regime.