Globalism / Great Reset –
French Energy Minister Agnes Pannier-Runacher said Saturday she was “stunned” after the oil cartel OPEC urged its members to thwart any deal targeting fossil fuels at the COP28 conference.
“I am stunned by these statements from OPEC+. And I am angry,” she said from the climate conference in Dubai, adding that “OPEC+’s position endangers the most vulnerable countries and the poorest populations who are the first victims of this situation”.
The minister said she was “counting on the presidency of the COP not to be influenced by these declarations, and to reach an agreement which affirms a clear objective of phasing out fossil fuels”.
OBSERVATION - All is not well for the end fossil fuel contingent at COP. France may want to freeze to death in the dark, but OPEC nations would rather keep warm.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Friday and Saturday were busy days for pro-hamas protestors. Pro-hamas protesters LA vandalized buildings near synagogues, as well as a nearby church, with anti-Israel graffiti on Friday night after demonstrating against President Joe Biden at a nearby fundraiser on Friday night.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to increased lone wolf threats.
Attacks continue on Jewish individuals and facilities, especially in NYC.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The veil of secrecy over the X-37B continues ahead of its launch Sunday at 8:14 p.m. Eastern on its seventh mission. But this time there are some clues that at least something is different.
(T)he drone, which flies without anyone on board, is to be launched for the first time on SpaceX’s powerful Falcon Heavy, which is more powerful than the rockets that have launched it in the past. That’s led to speculation that the mission will be in a much higher orbit, which appears to be the case according to recent documents. SpaceX won the $130 million contract for the launch in 2018.
Still, what it might do in that higher orbit remains unknown
POLITICAL FRONT –
A clip of an Oct. 28 address given at Oxford University in the UK has gone viral (oddly, or not, within a day of the former speaker’s endorsement of Donald Trump), in which the former speaker sings the praises of the Democratic party, while slamming Republicans just three weeks after his ouster as House Speaker.
“When you look at the Democrats, they actually look like America. When I look at my party, we look like the most restrictive country club in America,” McCarthy said to laughter and applause.
OBSERVATION - Yet this slime ball is pandering for a cabinet position with Trump WH.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Again - hold polls at this stage at arms length as they tend to be trying to shape perception and attitudes and not so much actual views.
With that said, another left leaning polling outfit is out with troublesome data for democrats. With Biden’s approval rating reaching a new low, former President Donald Trump has taken the lead over the incumbent in the hypothetical 2024 presidential race, according to the latest poll by The Wall Street Journal.
This is the first time Trump has led Biden in the poll as the incumbent’s approval rating has reached a new low in the poll at 37% (and a record-high 61% disapproval). Trump has a 4-point edge outside the margin of error (47%-43%) among registered voters in the head-to-head matchup.
The poll also debunks the narratives that third-party and independent candidates might help Biden against Trump. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points (37%-31%) when five other candidates are added to the poll.
OBSERVATION - Again, I don’t embrace polls unconditionally. However, a number of historically left leaning polling out fits are giving the same results - Trump is ahead. I think this reflects two things - Trump has the support and second, there is an effort to try to convince biden’s handlers to call it quits so the democrats can get someone more electable in place. If these polls hold out, the dems will be hard pressed to fabricate the numbers of fake votes to keep biden in office.
As substitutes , both Harris and Newscum are not that popular either.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
The United States, South Korea and Japan agreed new initiatives on Saturday to respond to North Korea’s threats in cyberspace, including cryptocurrency abuses and space launches, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said.
Illegal Immigration –
Border Patrol agents working the nine southwest border sectors apprehended more than 50,000 migrants during the first week of December, according to unofficial Border Patrol reports obtained by Breitbart Texas. The Del Rio and Tucson Sectors lead the list with the most apprehensions.
According to unofficial Border Patrol reports reviewed by Breitbart Texas, agents assigned to the southwest border apprehended just over 50,000 migrants during the first seven days of December. This follows a total of at least 379,000 apprehended in October and November. If the December average daily apprehension rate of more than 7,000 migrants continues, the agency could apprehend nearly 224,000 migrants by the end of the month.
OBSERVATION - These numbers are exploding. Short of massive sweeps of cities, the efforts to deport the numerous illegals that have poured into the country are reaching the impossible zone.
***
On Thursday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams went to Washington, DC, for the 10th time, to plead for help from Biden but admitted, “help is not on its way.”
“I did not leave with optimism,” Adams said to reporters on Friday.
OBSERVATION - Heads up Mayor Adams, the regime could care less about your problems. They are deliberately causing them.
China –
A Philippine boat and Chinese ship have collided near a contested reef, in the latest territorial dispute between the two countries in the South China Sea.
The Philippines said China had “harassed, blocked, and executed dangerous manoeuvres”.
It comes a day after the Philippines accused China of using water cannons to obstruct three of its vessels.
The South China Sea is at the centre of a territorial dispute between China, the Philippines and other countries.
The Philippines said on Sunday that China had targeted Philippine civilian supply vessels in the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, a flashpoint between the two countries.
One of two boats carrying provisions was “rammed” by a Chinese coast guard ship, the National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea said in a statement.
It also accused China of causing “severe damage” to the engine of one boat after using water cannon.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67668930
OBSERVATION - China continues their aggressive blockade of the island. I wonder just how soon the Philippines will call on the US to honor its treaty and send a ship to defend Philippine vessels.
Phillipines –
See China above
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Nov 12, 2023
Russia is struggling to gain the initiative on several fronts in easter Ukraine. Attacks to take Adviivka, located near occupied Donetsk has been their priority as well as further north. However, it is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine.
The Russian army has lost a considerable amount of armor/tanks and personnel in the fight to take Adviivka, causing that offensive to stall considerably and resort to “meat” attacks.
With the arrival of the muddy season, significant offensive actions by Russia are unlikely.
Ukrainian action has forced Russia to move forces laterally to meet the Ukraine advance - thinning critical portions of the line and making them vulnerable to assault.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. With the onset of winter, it is believed that Russian is shepherding its stockpile of missiles/drones for an effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as it did last year. This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. Ukraine’s recent attacks on ships in Crimean harbors has forced the majority of the fleet to redeploying out of Crimea and to Russian bases, about 600 Km further away from the front lines.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace.
Economic Impact –
Russian Federal Antimonopoly Service plans to introduce a ban on increasing food prices in 2024 by more than 30% within 60 days. The corresponding bill, developed on behalf of Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov, has already been sent to the government.
NOTE - Economics was one of the major contributors to the fall of the Soviet Union. Economics is causing similar disruption today. Many of the areas hardest hit are outside the realm of Moscow, in rural areas in the eastern half of the nation.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 20-30 degree range with mostly cloudy conditions and more snow towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Weather continues to slow fighting. Russian forces continue to press the attacks at Bakhmut and Adviivka.
Outlook —-
Weather and mud conditions are dictating operations. Russia’s drive to continue the attacks combined with shortages of munitions for Ukrainian forces have caused Russia to regain the initiative in some portions of the front. Though those attacks come with a high loss, there has been some success in pushing Ukraine back. They seem to be back to the tactic that they will out bleed Ukraine.
Any related ‘break through’ of Ukranian lines is not expected because Ukraine has demonstrated the discipline to fall back to alternative positions and Russia just doesn’t have the mobile forces to exploit - especially during the mud season. Ukraine’s down tempo may also indicate rest, refit and rearm for winter offensive operations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel continues to systematically reduce Hamas resistance throughout Gaza.
- Mass surrender of Hamas forces appear to be on the increase.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Netanyahu speaking to government officials - International pressures to end the war are not compatible with supporting the elimination of Hamas
***
Abu Obaydah, Hamas’ spokesman, has been absent from Hamas video publications since the end of November. Since Friday, Palestinian Arab media has reported that he was either killed or seriously injured in an IDF attack last week.
***
More than twice as many Democrats (50%) as Republicans (21%) say that the Israeli government bears “a lot” of responsibility for the war against the Hamas terror organization in the Gaza Strip. That’s according to a new poll that the Pew Research Center conducted of 5,203 adults between Nov. 27 and Dec. 3.
***
Despite Egypt’s continuous and public opposition to Gazans entering its territory following Israel’s war against Hamas, Cairo is preparing for the possibility such a scenario would happen against its will.
***
Israeli hostage Sahar Baruch, 25, an engineering student who was abducted from Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7, has been killed in Gaza — and the Hamas terrorist group is blaming Israel, saying that he was killed during an attempted rescue earlier this week.
Hamas released a propaganda this week video showing a blood-soaked floor and staircase, suggesting a body having been dragged through a building, and then showing Baruch’s bloodied, battered body (which Breitbart News will not publish). Israeli sources confirmed his death, and the community of Kibbutz Be’eri said that Hamas itself had murdered Baruch in captivity.
The official number of hostages in Gaza is 138.
That said, the IDF has confirmed the deaths of 18 of the hostages following intelligence and findings obtained by troops inside Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Action in both N and S Gaza resulted in more mass surrenders of multiple dozens of Hamas and affiliated fighters, while in other sectors, fierce fighting has locally broken out.
In one instance, over 100 armed Hamas terrorists surrendered in Jabalia, N Gaza overnight. Even more now being reported in Khan Yunis.
Unconfirmed reports that many of those surrendering to the IDF report that they had lost all communications with higher headquarters and had no instructions on how to continue the fight.
Israeli tanks have reportedly battled their way to the center of Khan Younis on Sunday in a major new push into the heart of the main city in the southern Gaza Strip.
After a lull of 20 hours, rocket sirens sound in the Gaza border communities of Yad Mordechai and Netiv Ha’assara. This is the largest gap between rocket attacks from Gaza, aside from the week-long truce.
IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said in his daily statement, regarding the report stating that Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and the head of the military wing, Mohammed Deif, fled to Khan Yunis, that IDF is hunting them around the clock. “Military Intelligence, the Air Force, Southern Command - around the clock, we are searching for them,” he said. “And we are also reaching them, wherever they are.” He emphasized, ‘Anywhere in the Gaza Strip, we will target anyone involved in attacks, and certainly the leaders of Hamas.”
NOTE - This is not a surprise, the ‘pause’ was designed to allow Hamas leadership to exfiltrate into the south. However, the quick strike into Khan Younis may have pinned him and his henchmen down and unable to make it out of Gaza.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli warplanes flew over Dahiye and Beirut International Airport. Al-Arabiya security sources also report that Israeli warplanes flew over Mount Lebanon, the North, and the Bekaa Valley.
IDF launched some of the largest strikes into S Lebanon in recent days while Hezbollah/Hamas continued harassment attacks.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continued operations in the area, preemptively hitting hamas affiliated terror cells and leaders.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for yesterday’s 11 attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria. Islamic Resistance in Iraq is the umbrella group for Kataib Hezbollah, Al-nujabaa and Kataib Sayyed Al-Shuhadaa.
The talks over a military response to Houthi attacks on shipping are at a preliminary stage and both the US and partners still favor diplomacy over direct confrontation, said the people, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter. That said, the fact the discussions are taking place at all underscores how seriously the US takes the threat, the people added. This follows several Pentagon officials complaining to US media outlets over the lack of response from President Biden over the increased attacks from the Houthis.
Houthi rebels in Yemen yesterday announced that they will start attacking all ships which are on their way to, or departing, Israeli ports. They are trying to use the narrow Bab Al-Mandab Strait to impose a maritime blockade of Israel.
A French Navy FREMM class frigate just shot down 2 drones over the Red Sea launched by the Houthi rebels in Yemen
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Pressure continues for Israel to unilaterally cease fire for ‘humanitarian’ purposes. Movement hasn’t gained much traction since the revelations from the last ‘pause’ of hostage abuse (and Hamas currently refuses to bring the remaining hostages to the negotiation table), and cooperation between UN / NGOs assisting in the fight and knowingly holding some hostages.
——— FORECAST ————————-
While Israel continues to mop up Hamas and affiliated forces, the calls for a unilateral ceasefire continue but are failing to gain traction. Israel has no motivation to do so as Hamas refuses to release hostages and Israel is eliminating large portions of jihadi fighters.
Some big ticket items watching out for is the surrender or death of Yahya Sinwar and the head of the military wing, Mohammed Deif. Along with this is the continued mass surrender of Hamas and affiliated forces.
Houthi’s will continue to attack shipping and it will take a serious counter strike by US/allied forces to convince them to discontinue them. I don’t anticipate any shock and awe attacks, on symbolic ones. As with the other islamic groups, they only respect power and will see such weak strikes as evidence of weakness.
Black Swans
A powerful storm system brought snow, wind and heavy rainfall across the eastern U.S. this weekend also brought with it deadly tornadoes that tore across parts of the South on Saturday.
Officials in Montgomery County said they have confirmed at least three deaths and nearly two dozen injuries as a result of a tornado that tore through the Clarksville area, one of the largest cities in Tennessee. Officials in Nashville confirmed there have been at least three deaths there after a tornado ripped across the northern side of the metro area.
OBSERVATION - The immediate view is the growing chaos from the multiple wars and political strife in the world today. However, in my threat matrix I keep an eye on Mother Nature. Unpredictable for the most part, natural disasters can heap troubles on humanity above and beyond that of war and political protests.
Be alert to your home area. Seasonal changes bring floods, fires, tornados, hurricanes etc. Active fault zones and tsunami prone regions too. Your preparations should be broad enough to cover these as well as political / societal storms.
.... but fabricate, they will. They don't care how obviously they cheat. It was glaringly obvious in 2020, yet any attempt to challenge the cheat was framed as insurrection and prosecuted vigorously.
I expect the Democraps to double down, and start summarily executing anyone who spreads 'misinformation'.
We don't have to use massive sweeps. The Cartels have the names and addresses of all the folks who still owe them and are making payments. Also when we go to war with the cartels, they'll hand over the info on most of the rest of 'em.
Thank You for each informative post. I applaud your efforts.