Slow getting the motivator going, up much later than usual last night with the grandkids.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Education Minister Chris Hipkins is set to become New Zealand’s next prime minister after emerging as the only candidate Saturday to replace Jacinda Ardern. Hipkins became well-known during the COVID pandemic when he emerged as an authoritarian crisis manager for New Zealand’s government.
In July 2021 he warned that the government will start tracking down individuals who haven’t “come forward” to take the COVID jab.
“I think early next year we’ll be in the phase of chasing out people who haven’t come forward to get their vaccination, or missed their bookings and so on,” Hipkins told reporters.
“So everyone will be able to get a vaccine between now and the end of the year. Of course, I want every New Zealander to come forward, but human behavior suggests that there will be some people that we actually have to really go out and look for, and some of that may spill into next year,” Hipkins said.
“But, our commitment is everyone will have the opportunity to get the vaccine by the end of the year,” Hipkins continued, adding that, in fact, “everyone WILL” get the vaccine.
OBSERVATION – Its all about power. With elections coming and his party underwater with the electorate, he may or may not have time to continue with his threats.
Biden / Harris watch –
When she visited Highland Park, Illinois, after a heinous mass shooting last Fourth of July, she had another ‘Veep’ moment. When addressing the press, she said,
“We gotta take this stuff seriously, as seriously as you are, because you have been forced to have take it seriously.”
OBSERVATION – What?
**
The Department of Justice just announced they searched Joe Biden’s home on Friday and found SIX MORE classified documents. This comes after Biden said there were no more classified documents. Found were document including some from Biden’s years in the SENATE
OBSERVATION – Apparently biden’s lawyers didn’t sanitize the house adequately since now the DoJ was the one that found these. This as well as other discoveries regarding who handled the documents and how they got to there various discovery sites is gaining traction even in some corners of the MSM and liberal mouthpieces.
POTENTIALLY RELATED - White House is chief of staff Ron Klain has resigned. WH observers note he was the real power of the Biden administration. Is his departure some how related to the ongoing classified document scandal?
CW2/Domestic violence –
Down town Atlanta is in cleanup mode following Antifa’s temper tantrum overnight. Because serious violence failed to materialize on the original planned date of Jan. 20, the militants escalated their tactics for Saturday. They were hoping to burn down the Atlanta Police Foundation. They managed to set a police vehicle on fire and damage a number of businesses. Atlanta Police have arrested 6 people so far, some of whom were carrying explosives.
Far-left extremists & Antifa also gathered in Minneapolis to vandalize businesses, pass out propaganda & radicalization texts, in addition to raising more money for the domestic terrorist suspects arrested in Atlanta.
OBSERVATION – These Atlanta protests (called peaceful by CNN and other brain dead MSM outlets) have questionable traction in starting stuff on a national level. In 2020 Antifa piggybacked on BLM and the presidential election campaign protests/riots. This doesn’t seem to have the same inertia. It is notable that this was one of the most aggressive ANTIFA riots in some time.
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The Connecticut cell of terrorist-linked John Brown Gun Club, a violent extremist far-left militia, is urging its members to begin preparing NOW for violence this summer.
OBSERVATION – Affiliated with Antifa JBGC was one of the first to develop a gun-culture related training and support for Antifa’s overall operations. At one time also associated with ‘Redneck Rebellion”, an Antifa affiliated splinter group seeking to infiltrate and develop a presence in the predominantly Red rural area – but RR and JBGC has a parting of ways.
The catalyst for ‘violence’ is not readily apparent, but may have to do with classified document issues surrounding biden and hunter and any political transition.
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An Antifa cell in Salem, Ore. has used the mass shooting in Monterey P ark, Calif. as a call for comrades to join cells & get trained to use weapons. The group says it was a “presumably racist attack” despite police announcement stating that the wanted gunman is Asian.
OBSERVATION - As noted above, Antifa syngerized with BLM riots and are seeking another ‘racist” incident to spring board off of. This doesn’t appear to be the one for them though....
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
We are now at the front end of that window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Russian Air Force strategic bomber voice net was active on 8131 Kilohertz USB, 1644 UTC. Aircraft calling ground station and passing radiogram. Frequency was reportedly being jammed.
OBSERVATION – When these nets become active, there is have been Russian missile/cruise missile/drone barrages coming soon thereafter, Its been a good week and a half or so making another barrage highly likely.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian efforts to encircle Bakhmut from the north and south made grudging slow progress and updated mapping of forces show an increased encirclement in progress. Pretty much the same elsewhere along the eastern LOC with Ukrainian forces making headway into Kreminna.
Continued reports of Russian buildup in Zaporizhzhia Oblast with some Russian recon in force attacks northward.
OUTLOOK ——
Most likely Ukraine will be hit with another missile barrage before my next post tomorrow.
More brutal, bloody fighting around Bahkmut in particular as well as along the whole eastern front. Weather still dictating the curtailing of major offensives as the ground is just starting to freeze.
A lot of what Russia will do next depends on how quickly its generals can reorganize and gain control following recent shuffling in the high command. Also in the mix is Wagner and just how much ‘support’ they will be getting in the future from the MoD.
Protests in Stockholm on Saturday against Turkey and Sweden’s bid to join NATO, including the burning of a copy of the Koran, sharply heightened tensions with Turkey at a time when the Nordic country needs Ankara’s backing to gain entry to the military alliance. In Turkey, individuals burned a Swedish flag in front of the embassy in Ankara. Turkey has demanded Sweden to hand over Kurdish activists and prevent rallies attacking its leadership.
OBSERVATION – Protestors in Stockholm were supporters of Kurdish elements Turkey has declared to be terrorists and part of Turkey’s refusal to accept admittance of Sweden to NATO is Swedish allowing Kurd supporters to have such an open voice in the country.
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Poland’s PM Mateusz Morawiecki - ‘if Germany does not consent to the transfer of Leopard 2 tanks then we will build a “smaller coalition” of countries ready to send tanks. Poland will not look on while Ukraine bleed. Ukraine & Europe will win the war with or without Germany.” He further added “that Poland would not look on passively while Ukraine bleeds.”
OBSERVATION – Germany has really been hit with a lot of pressure over what some European nations consider as their reluctance to support Ukraine.
Iran –
Iran’s troubled currency fell to a record low against the US dollar on Saturday amid the country’s increasing isolation and possible Europe Union sanctions against Tehran’s Revolutionary Guards or some of its members. The rial has lost 29% of its value since nationwide protests following the death in police custody of a 22-year-old Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, on Sept. 16.
OBSERVATION – While protests have died (almost literally) down, pressure continues as the protest movement has moved underground. Currency devaluation is going to continue Iran’s economic woes.
Syria -
Assad Regime artillery strike has targeted a Turkish base near Afes, leading to the death and injury of more than dozen Turkish Troops, this is on the same par as the Baylun Airstrike, where Russian airstrikes killed 40 Turkish Troops
OBSERVATION – Turkey, Syria (Assad) and Russia continue to do the dance in N Syria.
Turkey -
Erdogan says he will call for elections on March 10, so the elections will be held on May 14 after 60 days preparations.
OBSERVATION – This should prove very interesting. Turkey is experiencing inflation in the hundreds of a percent and the citizenry are not thrilled at that. Turkey also has its fingers in a number of hotspots across Europe, N Africa and the middle east.
My guess? Biden's got hundreds of classified documents out - if the FBI gave a damn they would raid Biden's brother's home, sister's home and Hunter's whore's homes and the FBI would dust for Chinese commie's fingerprints.
Did the Archivist, DOJ and FBI conspired together to keep this out of the news, and to allow Biden plenty of time to 'make it right'. The problem was Biden taking the classified material wasn't a mistake. It was intentional and keeping them was intentional. And Hunter used them. And there's a hell of a lot 'there there'...
If Biden and Hunter were innocent the FBI would have been called in and dusted the files for finger prints.
IMHO
And the excuse the documents were accidentally placed in a burn bag while leaving the White House won't work now... same with blaming this on low level flunkies (Hunter's laptop has pictures of classified documents on a table at a Birthday Party...)
Their newest 'excuse' that 'everyone' in power has classified documents at home is a lie - and undermines their endless hate attack against President Trump. Also whipping around the press bimbos in this short a time is backfiring. Even NBC bimbos need more time than two months to go from 'this is the world thing in the world and Trump needs to go to prison' to 'this is nothing since it's Biden'.
A little late this morning – been chasing the granddaughter around the house as she’s just learning to crawl (and so it begins)
Seem things have calmed some more - as the storm builds.
Biden / Harris watch –
Are they getting ready to toss biden under the bus? Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) are raising questions regarding national security amid the Biden document debacle.
“The reports about President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents are extremely irresponsible and disturbing,” Manchin said while speaking on Fox News. “These allegations should be investigated fully.”
Kaine reiterated the need for Biden to be probed, while also praising the DOJ’s decision to allow a special counsel to investigate.
OBSERVATION – Not the hard core leftists, but a crack in the dam.
**
Jeff Zients, the former White House coronavirus response coordinator, is expected to replace Ron Klain as White House chief of staff, two sources familiar with the plans told The Hill. Zients left his role as Biden’s first COVID-19 czar in April 2022 after advising the pandemic response effort and was replaced by Ashish Jha. He returned this fall ahead of the midterm elections to assist Klain with preparations for staff turnover as well as other projects.
The White House declined to comment.
Zients was director of the National Economic Council under former President Obama and before that was acting director of the Office of Management and Budget. Between the Obama and Biden administrations, he was chief executive officer of an investment firm, Cranemere, and was on the board of directors of Facebook.
OBSERVATION – Ok, let the games begin
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Kamala quotes the Declaration of Independence at a Florida pro-abortion rally: “We are each endowed with the right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness.”
Notice how she didn’t say “right to life”
OBSERVATION – A not so subtle snub towards life. Democrats believe in death.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The son of Democrat House Minority Whip Katherine M. Clark was reportedly arrested during an Antifa riot in Boston, Massachusetts after allegedly vandalizing personal property and charged with assaulting an officer while resisting arrest Saturday night.
OBSERVATION – In a smaller protest associated with the call out by Altlanta antifa. NOTE, this is not the first instance that a rich or politically connected ‘kid’ has been arrested for Antifa acts of violence. In this same series an individual from Maine was arrested – with multimillionaire parents.
**
A group of pro-choice protesters gathered outside the home of Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh on the 50th anniversary of Roe v. Wade, the landmark abortion case.
The protesters converged on the sidewalk outside Kavanaugh’s Chevy Chase, Maryland, home. The march appeared to be organized by the far-left group known as Our Rights DC. The group tweeted a poster inviting members to participate in the march within the neighborhoods of Justice Kavanaugh and Chief Justice John Roberts.
The group chanted as they marched in the rain, saying things like “cut his time short, a rapist should not rule the court,” and “no privacy for us, no peace for you.”
Several members of law enforcement could be seen standing nearby on Kavanaugh’s property.
OBSERVATION – The left’s continued threats of violence against conservative members of the USSC continues – and the DoJ is completely absent.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Republican National Committee is set to resolve a bitter leadership feud that has exposed perilous divisions within the institution charged with electing the next GOP president.
Those inside the fight believe the days ahead of Friday’s secret ballot at a luxury seaside resort could get even uglier as rebel forces within former President Donald Trump’s Make America Great Again movement threaten to upend RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel’s reelection bid. The attacks have been led by McDaniel’s chief rival, Harmeet Dhillon, a Trump attorney.
OBSERVATION – If the republican party is to start getting credibility with the base again, McDaniel has to go. With the disastrous 2022 mid term results and the exposed flamboyant expenses that only served to boost the party elite and lack of fight for close election results – McDaniel is on thin ice. Her only chance are the deep pockets of the RINO donors and power brokers in the RNC to sway the vote.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
We are now at the front end of that window. Indicators have weakened over the period since I placed China on war watch.
Indicators –
In his new year message to China, President Xi Jinping issued a veiled warning to the United States not to interfere in China’s relations with Taiwan. China’s state-backed media CCTV and Xinhua news agency reported Xi said China will be engaged in “serious struggles” against separatism and interference in its reunification plans for Taiwan. Xi, who is also the chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission, told the military in charge of border defense to raise their vigilance during the Lunar New Year and be ready for combat.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia expels Estonian ambassador. “Downgrading Diplomatic Relations”
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Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov says that war between Russian and the West is not hybrid anymore, but “almost” real
OBSERVATION – Part of the ongoing narrative that tries to deflect Russian military failures by saying the war is against NATO and not Ukraine.
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Russia announced its Baltic Sea Fleet is conducting combat readiness exercises.
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The Admiral Gorshkov, a Russian frigate carrying hypersonic Zircon missiles, will join Chinese and South African navies for exercises starting 17 February. According to a statement from the South African National Defense Forces, the exercise is intended to strengthen the already flourishing relations between South Africa, China, and Russia.
**
As mentioned in previous, the tide is shifting for Wagner Group boss Yevgeny Prigozhin as he appears to be on the outs with the Kremlin after failing to capture Bakhmut with his troops.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Well, no Russian missile barrage as warned about yesterday but still in the mix in the coming days. Battles as Bahkmut, Soldar,Kreminna and Donetsk continue with little territorial changes.
The dust-up with Wagner and the MoD may be shifting to the MoD’s favor.
President Zelensky ordered General Staff to prepare additional military reserves. Looks like a long, hot summer.
OUTLOOK ——
Still looking at the increased probability of a Russian missile barrage attack in the next few days.
Bloody battles continue with Russian gains around Bahkmut and Ukrainian gains around Kreminna. All in all, the fight for Kreminna is the most significant of the two as it directly threatens supply lines to the northern Donbas campaign region.
It also looks like unseasonably warm winter weather is going to delay offensive actions by both sides. It also appears to be a scramble for each side to reman, rearm and reequip its forces for the offensives and counter offensives. At this stage the advantage is still Ukraine. Russia has wasted lot of men and material in its attacks in the east, with very little to show for it. Personnel readiness is even further behind, while Ukraine began a million man call-up at the start of the war. They have been getting training from the west and that advantage has borne fruit so far.
Belarus -
Observers and analysts monitoring Belarus still see no evidence of a buildup that could lead to an invasion to the south. It appears Russian units are rotating out of training with no abnormal equipment buildup.
Germany will not stand in the way if Poland sends leopard tanks to Ukraine, Germany’s foreign minister Baerbock says- Reuters
We will apply to Germany for permission to send Leopards to Ukraine, but even if there is no such consent, we will hand over the tanks as part of the “small coalition” - said Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki
OBSERVATION – Germany realizing that Poland will get the leopards there one way or another and caving to the pressure.
**
Meanwhile the spat between Turkey and Sweden continues with Turkey threatening to block NATO membership application of Sweden.