No post tomorrow as I’m taking a day off.
Globalism / Great Reset -
Many are looking into the tea leaves trying to figure what will come out of Davos next week. Here’s my 2 cents –
I expect that a dramatic, almost tyrannical push to get the climate change ‘reset’ back on track. The Ukraine threw those efforts off, but as warmer months approach you can expect the party line will be brought back. With the “crisis” over, countries may even begin to implement the climate change “emergency” orders similar to those issued for wuhan.
Second, I think there will be maneuvering to bring on the global economic collapse. The bipolar nature of the expectations for a global recession will be on line in a few months. Combined with national debts the season will be ripe for their ‘solution’ to the problem they have created.
Finally, a more aggressive push for CBDC and digital IDs (with increasing push for the addition of ESG data).
RELATED - Kalifornia is acting as a beta test for digitial identification. The project is aimed at creating a single digital identifier that can be used to provide proof of identity and obtain access to state services.
The California Department of Motor Vehicles said the rollout to pilot a secure mobile driver’s license or mDL, could come as early as late spring for a limited number of participants. The DMV said it is working with popular mobile wallet providers, including Apple and Android, to place the mDLs into their devices.
The DMV is also developing an open-source app to test alongside the mDLs. All of these pilot products will utilize the security capabilities already built into smartphones, including biometric readings or a PIN code...
Just like the test run by many banks of the Fed inspired CBDC that was started late last year, these many smaller rollouts are designed to fly under the radar as much as possible while working out the bugs for usability and deployability.
The increasing control of peoples lives are highlighted in the recent push for the “15 Minute City” concept. Fifteen-minute cities are popping up everywhere, and the World Economic Forum is wildly enthusiastic about them. Last year it was announced that Paris, France, would become a 15-minute city, and now the British city of Oxford is next.
The “15-minute city” concept is crucial in the United Nations Agenda 2030 and their Net Zero green agenda. The World Economic Forum is also pushing this new concept. Oxford, which has declared a ‘climate emergency,’ is hoping their 15-minute cities will help achieve the Council’s ‘Net Zero carbon Oxford’ vision by 2040.”
As early as 2024, Oxford plans to impose “climate lockdowns” on residents to help achieve the Council’s ‘Net Zero carbon Oxford’ vision by 2040.” The “15-minute city” concept is also crucial for the United Nations Agenda 2030. And not surprisingly, the World Economic Forum is also pushing the idea.
Oxford will be divided into six zones ‘to save the planet’ from “global warming.” Electronic fences are placed on access roads to ensure residents remain within their own zone.
Residents are allowed to leave their 15-minute city a maximum of 100 times a year, but then they must first register their car, which is tracked throughout the city via smart cameras.
OBSERVATION – I’ve touched on this in earlier posts. This dystopic plan would in the Before Years be considered totally unreasonable and controlling. Today it is becoming a reality. The globalists believe that they can achieve this because of the overwhelming success they had with the wuhan ‘emergency’ and all the restrictive actions they got away with.
RELATED - In an article published in the Guardian, Rebecca Solnit wrote –
To change our relationship to the physical world – to end an era of profligate consumption by the few that has consequences for the many – means changing how we think about pretty much everyting: wealth, power, joy, time, space, nature, value, what constitutes a good life, what matters, how change itself happens. …”
OBSERVATION – Again, using climate change as a lever to force economic change.
Many are tracking the actions of the WHO as they draft changes to the global treaty that would empower them to dictate ‘health’ standard to all member nations, changes that would avoid the treaty having to come back to the US for Senater approval. These changes were slammed last year when they first came out and the WHO publicly walked them back, but apparently the work has continued behind closed doors.
Given the reported gelatinous nature of the amendments, they could declare just about anything as a public health threat – and use that to go after the 2d Amendment rights of Americans, trumping the constitution. These changes are reportedly set to be presented later this year at its meeting of member states.
Wuhan virus –
See China for their report of wuhan deaths below.
The CDC just put out a safety warning about the Pfizer COVID bivalent booster. It appears that it may be causing strokes.
OBSERVATION – IDK if this is due to the incoming Republican investigations into the CDC and its response to the wuhan plandemic or not. But it seem warnings about the jabs are coming out more frequently – possibly in an effort to separate their collusion with Pfizer/Moderna.
Economy –
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told Congress Friday that the nation would reach the statutory debt limit in January 19th – requiring ‘extraordinary measures’ that can only last for a finite period with a political clash looming this summer.
‘Once the limit is reached, Treasury will need to start taking certain extraordinary measures to prevent the United States from defaulting on its obligations,’ Yellen said in a letter to congressional leaders.
‘While Treasury is not currently able to provide an estimate of how long extraordinary measures will enable us to continue to pay the government’s obligations, it is unlikely that cash and extraordinary measures will be exhausted before early June,’ she wrote.
Battlelines are being drawn up in Congress. Members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus have said that spending cuts should match the amount of any debt limit increase.
Democrats are advocating a clean debt limit increase before the deadline, setting up a showdown between the parties.
“Congress must act on legislation to prevent a disastrous default, meet our obligations and protect the full faith and credit of the United States,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said in a statement on Friday. “A default forced by extreme MAGA Republicans could plunge the country into a deep recession and lead to even higher costs for America’s working families on everything from mortgages and car loans to credit card interest rates.
The White House says that it will not participate in any negotiations, but back the ‘clean’ increase plan.
OBSERVATION – One elephant in the room that I haven’t addressed much is the incredibly massive amount of debt this country currently has. One day it will have to account for it. The debt limit was at one time the tool used to reign in spending, now it is all too easy just to raise the limit.
Enter stage right the WEF and the Global Reset – a nearly every other country in the world is facing similar, massive debt.
Invasion of Illegals –
Townhall reports - The Department of Homeland Security announced new measures that would help illegal migrants avoid deportation if they agree to report U.S. labor violations.
The DHS claimed that using deferred action, the notion of protecting noncitizens from the threat of being deported, will make it easier for the agency to investigate violations of labor laws put in place by “exploitive employers.”
“Unscrupulous employers who prey on the vulnerability of noncitizen workers harm all workers and disadvantage businesses who play by the rules,” DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said. “We will hold these predatory actors accountable by encouraging all workers to assert their rights, report violations they have suffered or observed, and cooperate in labor standards investigations.”
OBSERVATION – Use of illegals for labor is one of the sore spots in our economy, and one that attempts have been made to counter over the years. Now govt is rewarding illegals for ratting on employers. I wonder just how long these employers will continue to have illegals in their work pools and facing potential blackmail for their employment matters.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Victor Davis Hanson has a hands down excellent review of the current racial divides in the nation today. Rwanda example is being played out in our cities today.
https://amgreatness.com/2023/01/08/a-rendezvous-with-rwanda/
SEE WHO above under Globalism / Great Reset above. If the reported efforts to modify the WHO treaty, some are saying that there will be major resistance to any declaration to supersede constitutional rights starting on a state by state basis.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Nimitz Carrier Strike Group began operating in the South China Sea on Thursday, the Navy announced, amid heightened tensions with Beijing, which claims much of the body of water as its sovereign territory.
Two Chinese ships are already tailing the US group, a defense official told CNN, which consists of an aircraft carrier, a guided missile cruiser, and three guided missile destroyers.
The Nimitz CSG, entered the South China Sea for the first time as part of its current deployment.
OBSERVATION – China has been operating its carrier in ways that expose how it could threaten US/Japanese ability to counter strike in the event of a Taiwan invasion. This is just a reminder to the Chinese that we have a bigger club.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
China on Saturday reported nearly 60,000 deaths in people who had COVID-19 since early December following complaints the government was failing to release data about the status of the pandemic.
The death toll included 5,503 deaths due to respiratory failure caused by COVID-19 and 54,435 fatalities from other ailments combined with COVID-19. The National Health Commission said those deaths occurred in hospitals, which left open the possibility more people also might have died at home.
OBSERVATION – As always, one must hold China’s reported information at arms length. Interesting distinction made here between cause solely by wuhan and those with other ailments. Dispite the numbers, there seems to be little here to permit the branch covidians in the US to reinstitute their tyranny – though they’ve been trying. However the primary effect has been to further the industrial production chaos the previous lockdown and now apparently much wider spread infections have caused.
One thought – this has occurred following China’s relaxation of the zero-covid tyranny. One would think the Chinese hierarchy is allowing this to punish the population for its rejections of the policy and create a base for a resumption of the strict restrictions.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
Western intelligence indicates that Putin could announce a fresh mobilization soon. If a decision is taken within weeks, as many as 500,000 extra Russians could be trained and sent to the front by April
NOTE - These new mobilization plans have been bouncing around for many weeks now. Some of these conscripts could see the front within week of mobilization – as did many of the last mobilization. The question is – will Russia continue the human wave / cannon fodder attacks or actually provide more training that will be necessary for a successful offensive operation.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight Russia launched a very large, ballistic missile attacks Kyiv as well as other major cities. It appears that they are following this attack up with cruise missile barrage(s). This follows a pause of nearly two weeks since the last such attack and is the first using significant numbers of ballistic missiles in an even longer period. Ukraine air defense is being hampered by fog in many locations.
The extensive use of ballistic missiles – many thought to have been launched from Belarus - raises a couple questions.
1) Were these missiles recently produced (Iskanders) or
2) do they represent the first of ballistic missiles Russia has been working to procure from Iran.
Many of these missiles struck residential and other civilian areas.
Contrary to Russian announcements, Soledar is still not under Russian control and fighting continues to be fierce in the town. Russia has also increased operations south of Bakhmut to try to form a pincer in that direction.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have reached the edge of Kreminna and are pushing Russian forces back.
Russian artillery was active along the LOC from the border area north of Kharkiv southward towards Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
One outcome of the recent missile attacks on apartments and other civilian targets is growing pressure to supply longer range weapons systems. Ukraine’s drone attacks on Russian strategic bomber bases resulted in Russia pulling bombers further east out of range. Those redeployed bombers were involved in the overnight attacks – it just took them longer to reach their designated cruise missile launching areas.
It has become hard for Russia to hide the preparations for these attacks. As noted in a recent post, Russia deployed many missile capable subs and surface vessels in days prior and SIGNINT announced the bombers in route over established HF strategic comms networks. As long as Russia can strike Ukraine with these weapons, the balance of power will be on their side as they prepare for their ‘offensive’. Thus the pressure to arm Ukraine with ATACAMS and similar long range systems.
NEAR TERM assessment is that Russia will once again pause to assemble the missiles necessary for the next barrage – one to two weeks max. If Russia is able to get their hands on Iranian ballistic missiles things will get ugly as Russian has shown no restraint in targeting apartments, markets, power grid and other civilian areas with these weapons.
Belarus -
Observers in Belarus note that there has been decrease in the intensity of movements of the Russian Armed Forces by rail may potentially indicating the completion of rotation of part of the Russian contingent, which was trained at the training grounds of the Belarusian Armed Forces. The rotation of the Russian military indicates that in the near future we should not expect an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces from the territory of Belarus. The function of Belarus in this case is to serve as a training base for the mobilized Russians.
OBSERVATION – Though these are the reports from covert observers in Belarus and relaying in party by Ukrainian intelligence one must still be vigilant. Yet no solid indicators of an impending Russian or Russian/Belarus invasion are present.
Increased push to get modern, western tanks and APC/IFVs into Ukraine as soon as possible for both their offensive as well as countering the expected Russian offensive.
Iran –
UK imposes sanctions on Iran prosecutor general over the execution of former deputy Defense Minister Akbari. Akbari held dual British/Iranian citizenship.
Black Swans -
A severe weather outbreak in the Southeast United States on Thursday, January 12, 2023, has left at least seven people dead, several injured, and extensive damage in its wake. A series of tornadoes in central Alabama killed at least six people and in Georgia, a passenger in a vehicle was killed when a tree fell on the car during a severe storm.
OBSERVATION – The nation has been hit with almost generational level storms, starting with the Christmas time blast of arctic air and snow that hit the northern plains and buried Buffalo under record snow. Now the almost non-stop deluge of Kalifornia combined with the breakout of tornados as those storms progress to the east. Tornados in December/January time frame are rare because the combination of warm moist air colliding with cold air masses doesn’t usually exist in the winter.
For being the third La Nina winter – things haven’t acted out as usual or as they have the previous two winters.
I’ve also followed extreme weather events hitting other parts of the planet. In many of those cases it is simply information bias that interjects. OTOH, rare rain/hail/snow events in parts of the world that haven’t seen these storms in over a generation do poke above the noise.
As I’ve noted in many previous posts, one cannot predict weather related disasters, but can estimate their effects on the current global economy/food chain. At this stage, my gut is that on a basis of weather, we will continue to see near biblical levels of major storms. How and where they will hit remains to be seen.
So, basically, an open-air prison.
Globalism / Great Reset -
The WEF Davos shin dig kicks off officially today - there will be a lot of stuff (mostly brown and stinky) flowing out as reports over this week.
United States Embassy in Switzerland released the list of the 2023 U.S. delegation attending the World Economic Forum (WEF), which includes 11 current members of Congress.
The 2023 delegation includes the following three senators:
– Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.);
– Senator Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.);
– Senator Joe Manchin (D-W. Va,).
Additionally, the following eight Members of the House of Representatives have been selected to be part of the U.S. delegation:
– Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Tex.);
– Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-Penn.);
– Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.);
– Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.);
– Rep. Seth Moutlon (D-Mass.);
– Rep. Maria Salazar (R-Fla.);
– Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-N.J.);
– Rep. Juan Vargas (D-Calif).
While she is not listed as part of the delegation, Senator Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) is slated to speak at an event entitled “America (Un)Bound” during the conference. Other speakers include members of Congress from the U.S. Delegation, as well as Governors Brian Kemp of Georgia and J.B. Pritzker of Illinois.
OBSERVATION - Participation noted.
Japan is building a futuristic 175-acre ‘smart city,’ much to the delight of the World Economic Forum, which recently made a video highlighting the Globalist creation. Artificial intelligence, self-driving cars, futuristic food, and robots will be found in the government-monitored “Woven City,” created by Toyota.
OBSERVATION - This is the Japanese version of the “15 minute” city. While it doesn’t appear to have the same draconian measures for leaving the city as the European versions do, it does advance a Chinese-styled social credit system.
With much of wuhan behind us, the WEF/GGR tyranny it created is still very present and virulent in places. Recently, German authorities want to put a celebrated Jewish composer and Holocaust survivor in a psychiatric institution and force her to take the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccine.
Inna Zhvanetskaya, 85, a Ukrainian-born Jew who survived the Holocaust and is a resident of Stuttgart in southern Germany, was charged by a German court with admission into a psychiatric institution where she will be forcefully injected with the COVID-19 vaccine twice.
The court order authorizing her forceful transfer to a psychiatric institution and her forced vaccination stated that this is “for her own good.” (Related: Holocaust survivor warns COVID-19 measures similar to Nazi Germany’s subjugation policies.)
Furthermore, the German court has officially appointed a professional guardian for Zhvanetskaya, despite her being of sound mind and this being against her wishes. The court order stated that Zhvanetskaya has been diagnosed with several mental illnesses, including dementia, delusional disorder, narcissistic “grandeur self-image” and egocentrism. The court also claimed that Zhvanetskaya suffers from heart disease and severe obesity.
OBSERVATION – Same calls rained out here in the US to force the jab. Germany is one of the more closely aligned test beds (as I call them) for the WEF model of global governance – everything from a (failed) green energy push, social credit and wuhan compliance. It will eventually come to America.
In a preview of the demands for more taxation being brought before the Davos conference, OXFAM is demanding that food companies should pay windfall taxes to help tackle global inequality.
The organization asserted that food companies — like energy companies — have used climate change, the surging cost of living, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic as an excuse to increase prices for consumers.
Oxfam said the world’s top 1% gained nearly twice as much wealth as the remaining 99% combined. Meanwhile, 1.7 billion workers live in countries where inflation is outpacing wage growth.
The organization also analyzed 95 companies that posted windfall profits and found that most pass on these profits to shareholders while charging consumers higher prices.
Oxfam executive director Gabriela Bucher told the AP, “The number of billionaires is growing, and they’re getting richer, and also very large food and energy companies are making excessive profits,”
“What we’re calling for is windfall taxes, not only on energy companies but also on food companies to end this crisis profiteering,” she added.
At least one country has already implemented a windfall tax similar to what Oxfam has proposed.
For the whole of 2023, Portugal has introduced a 33% tax on food and energy companies that record profits 20% higher than the average of the last four years.
Revenue raised from this windfall tax will go towards welfare programs and to help smaller food retailers.
OBSERVATION – First the Oxfam claim “Oxfam said the world’s top 1% gained nearly twice as much wealth as the remaining 99% combined.” Well, I guess they are in the right place where these 1%rs are meeting to plan their Orwellian take over of the world eh?
This is but an outgrowth of the whole GGR/WEF redistribution of wealth play and displays a total ignorance of the whole of the economics necessary to get food on the table.
Invasion of Illegals –
The mayor of New York traveled to the Mexican border city of El Paso on Sunday and declared that “there is no room in New York” for busloads of migrants being sent to America’s most populous city.
OBSERVATION – The hypocrisy is over whelming here. El Paso is a fraction of the size of NYC, yet is having to deal with orders of magnitude more illegals that ‘sanctuary city’ NYC.
Biden / Harris watch –
On Sunday, Joe Biden gave a speech at the Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta in honor of Dr. Martin Luther King Jr where he repeated false claims about his supposed involvement in the civil rights movement and protesting apartheid in South Africa.
“I’ve two political heroes. My entire life. When I started off as a 22-year-old on the east side of the civil rights movement,” Biden said. “I got elected to the United States Senate when I was 29 and wasn’t old enough to take office.”
In 2020, Biden repeated a story for weeks that he was arrested in South Africa while trying to meet with Nelson Mandela. He later admitted the story was not true.
This all on top of more and more classified documents being found lying around Biden offices and residences.
CW2/Domestic violence –
As our Marxist swamp govt continues to try to disarm the country in advance of attempting to complete the subjugation of the nation – the Second Amendment has become a major front. A federal appeals court on Friday struck down a ban on bump stocks, while the ATF just published its new rules that outlaws arm supports for AR base pistols. Due to be hit in court soon as it is fraught with illegalities.
IN RELATED - At least 80 county sheriffs and prosecutors have vowed not to enforce the new Illinois gun control law that bans 170 kinds of semi-automatic rifles and places limits on ammunition magazines.
OBSERVATION – Sheriffs are understood to be the highest duly elected law authority and their stance against Pritzker is going to get hot. Pritzker threatened them with removal and told them to ‘uphold the law’ whereas he forgot their oath was to uphold the constitution first. The Illinois gun ban will be facing a hard time given recent USSC decisions and expect the lawsuits to follow as well. This could be the first hard case of sheriffs vs swamp we’ve seen yet.
Antifa has stepped up its support of the radical Trans movement and so called ‘family friendly’ drag shows. Most recently Antifa showed up in bloc and bearing AR-15s to protect one such ‘show’ in Texas.
OBSERVATION - We on the right must take these hard core elements of Antifa very seriously if things go sideways. They’ve invested a lot of selective recruitment, training and equipping for these components and I have no doubt that they have the potential to be extremely dangerous tactically - not like the dumb **** who’ve showed up at times in the past.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Despite the Department of Defense rescinding the COVID-19 vaccine mandate, unvaccinated military members are still facing repercussions, including denied benefits, ineligibility for promotion, being non-deployable, and potentially diminished employment prospects for those already discharged.
Service members won’t “be separated solely on the basis of their refusal to receive the COVID-19 vaccination if they sought an accommodation on religious, administrative, or medical grounds,” according to the memo. Additionally, records of military members will be updated with the removal of “any adverse actions solely associated with denials of” COVID vaccine exemptions, “including letters of reprimand,” and reviews of members seeking exemptions will end.
Military branch commanders may, however, consider a service member’s vaccination status “in making deployment, assignment, and other operational decisions, including when vaccination is required for travel to, or entry into, a foreign nation.”
Air Force Second Lt. Addie Hulet and 10 other officers who refused to get the vaccine have been in an ongoing legal and financial battle with the government. The NDAA “does not prevent the Department of Defense or anyone else from putting on mandates on service members, once again,” she told the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show on Monday.
OBSERVATION – As the failed and deadly history of the jab has demonstrated, there is no readiness argument for the DoD to rely upon as even the Sec Def has gotten it after four jabs. This is nothing more than the continued effort to purge the services of otherwise very well motivated military and damage the morale and readiness of the services. Woke syncopaths in the General officer corps and defense bureaucracy have totally lost all credibility in my eyes and it is reflected in the significant missing of recruitment goals. Those remaining in the service who will benefit from this reversal of DoD policy will still face the historical record of adverse performance reports that cannot be reversed like the discharges.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Quickly approaching the Chinese New Year and nothing significant to note either way on the potential for China to attempt an initial move on Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
A former ally of the Russian President talked about the possibility that Putin might retire soon, rather then potentially getting killed in a coup.
A source who was close to Putin once claimed that “the president will nominate his chosen heir already this year, instead of risking his downfall,” the British Daily Mail reported on Friday. This comes after the Russian president’s popularity is reportedly in a freefall because of repeated military failures in the war in Ukraine.
According to his former ally, Putin will want to transfer the power to his chosen successor and retire to his palace near the black sea, rather than risk a coup against him, similar to what happened to Qaddafi and other dictators.
Furthermore, he claimed Putin will seek to give up power, negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and also not be part of the elections which are planned for 2024.
Putin got flustered by the rise of Yevgeny Prigozhin, one of the owners of the Wagner mercenary group. Since the start of the war, Prigozhin has been fighting for more power and resources, which shows his desire to push Putin to the side.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
RUMINT –
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the ground. The death count from the Russian missile strike that hit Dnipro city increased to 40, 3 children among them. The missile was reportedly an cold war vintage anti-ship cruise missile carrying 950Kg of explosives.
Some minor advances by Russian forces in Soledar while Ukrainian troops are reportedly in the outskirts of Kreminna
Pretty much the standard Russian artillery strikes along the LOC with additional ground attacks from Donetsk.
OUTLOOK ——
There is a lot of discussion in the various OSINT communities as well as other analysts of just what form or goals the Russian offensive will take. The most likely assumptions are an increased effort to secure the Donbas (and with it Kherson and Donetsk oblasts still under Ukraine control) - that was the war’s stated goals from the start. Other objectives, include Russian just trying to brace for the Ukrainian offensive to the most dangerous course of action – a second attempt to seize Kyiv. These are pretty general at the moment as the Russian tactical situation on the ground is evaluated. None of them look particularly good for Russia and will require a substantially larger and equipped military to accomplish. Much of the recent mobilization’s forces have been squandered in the meat grinder attacks in the east and Russian failed to supply them with even the most basic of equipment. Now if the rumored much larger mobilization occurs, there is very little evidence that the Russian logistics machine will be able to do it any better. Even Wagner Group is reluctantly reporting that many of the recent prisoner conscripts have been killed or wounded in their attacks around Bahkmut.
Logistics has put Russia into a further bind. Even the most recent missile/cruise missile attack on Ukraine last week featured obsolete KH-22 anti-ship cruise missiles and not its more modern Kaliber.
Last couple of months, the talk was Russia kicking off its offensive by the end of January 2023. We have now pushed past the half way mark and there is no evidence of a build up necessary to execute such an attack. In part due to the wasting of forces as noted above as well as the continued relatively warm weather that has not permitted the ground to freeze up sufficiently to permit greater maneuvers. Talk is now focusing on a Spring offensive and given what I’ve seen that is a better bet. However, Russia will lose a window of opportunity with frozen ground and will face the mud once again like their initial attacks in 2022.
Ukraine OTOH is calling for more armor from the west. The earliest these new western tanks would be available in any tactically significant numbers will be in the spring. Ukraine does have the capability to execute offensive operations once the ground freezes as it is better equipped and trained. Most likely the main attack will hit in the northern Luhansk Oblast region (Svatove - Kreminna line) as this would cripple logistical resupply to Russia’s Donbas efforts and permit Ukraine to swing southward behind current Russian defenses.
The Ukrainian threat towards Crimea will continue to freeze Russian forces there, making them unavailable for any defensive actions further east. This threat is more viable than Russia’s threat of a second attack southward towards Kyiv or western Ukraine.
Still a lot of speculation with a lot of wild cards
1) Russia getting their hands on more Iranian drones and ballistic missiles
2) The political infighting and threats to both putin’s health and position.
Indicators for both sides are pretty cloudy and poorly defined at the moment. This always leaves room for sudden developments.
Belarus -
The Belarusian MoD announced the beginning of the joint tactical exercises of aviation units of the Belarusian and Russian Armed Forces included in the aviation component of the regional group of troops. The exercises are expected to be held from January 16 to February 1.
Also, observers have noted many loaded Russian troop trains departing as other arrive. This lends credibility to the observation that the Belarus military is training many of the new conscripts and not building up forces for an attack into Ukraine.
What is concerning are the number of training exercises taking place in the southwestern corner of Belarus – a potential alternative invasion route that could target the western Ukrainian city of Kviv and logistical routes in from Poland. This would also be a very dangerous assault as it could bring Poland and a large chunk of the Baltic countries into the fight.
Great deal of discussion of supplying Ukraine with more modern western weapon systems such as tanks, attack helicopters, and infantry fighting vehicles.
Israel –
The Biden administration condemned Israel for giving $39 million in Palestinian Authority tax revenues to the victims of terrorism instead of the terrorists.
“It is morally just and important for the war against terror. There is no greater justice than using the funds for the victims of terror,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said of the move.
U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned Israel’s actions as a “unilateral response” that will “exacerbate tensions,” and warned that the administration will raise the issue with Israel.
Price did not address whether the P.A. spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year to finance terrorist attacks against Israelis through its “Pay-to-Slay” program raises any tensions. The ruling PLO body spending millions to kill Jews is not unilateral, but Israel refusing to finance the murder of its own citizens is a dangerous move that will make peace difficult.
Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh claims that if Israel doesn’t give it $39 million, that “will promptly lead to its collapse.”
OBSERVATION – Billions have gone to the ‘Palestinians’ with most of it syphoned off by terror groups and corrupt officials. The biden emphasis of keeping the money flow to terrorists works towards its goal of trying to leverage Israel into a two state solution – as THE solution for ending the ongoing strife. US (and other anti-Israel govts) create the problem and then try to impose the ‘solution’.
Meanwhile, ousted former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak has called for Israelis to become involved in street battles to oust Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In an article published by Yedioth Ahronoth on Wednesday, Barak asserted: “This is an elected government. It is legitimate, but its actions and plans revolve around a coup. This makes it illegitimate.”
He added: “Therefore, it is the duty of every citizen to join the fight for the sake of the country, its security and its safety, as well as for the sake of the values of the Declaration of Independence, for the sake of equality, for the sake of human fraternity, dignity, rights and freedom.”
The article, published only in Hebrew, also stated that the: “Struggle will be resolved through demonstrations in the streets, squares, workplaces and the spaces of high education as millions are slated to take to the streets. This wicked government will collapse.”
OBSERVATION – While recent elections show the nation is split politically, it is questionable if Israeli’s want a civil war to break out.
Central / South America General-
Peru - Peru’s capital Lima was under a state of emergency Sunday, along with three other regions, as the government responded to weeks-long protests against President Dina Boluarte that have seen at least 42 people killed.
The state of emergency, in force for 30 days, authorizes the army to intervene to maintain order and suspends several constitutional rights such as freedom of movement and assembly, according to a decree published in the official gazette.
It covers Lima and the regions of Cusco and Puno, as well as the port of Callao adjacent to the capital.
Supporters of ousted president Pedro Castillo have taken to the streets and blocked roads across the South American country since December, demanding fresh elections and the removal of Boluarte, who has refused to step down.
The mass anti-government demonstrations first broke out in early December, after Castillo was ousted from office for attempting to dissolve Congress and rule by decree, seeking to prevent an impeachment vote against him.
OBSERVATION – Leftist violence in S. America. Peru is a critical copper supplier (about 10% of global production) and any disruptions would cause serious ripples across the globe.
Increasing instability in S America in general as there is more tension in Brazil as well.