Abbreviated post today. I get to handle both grandchildren by myself today and sitting at the computer just isn’t in the mix. I’ll double up tomorrow.
Democratic senators introduced the Digital Platform Commission Act, which would create a federal agency to develop and enforce rules for social media platforms.
OBSERVATION - A continuation of the GGR/WEF goal to censor and control free speech and free thought. 1984 on steroids.
Economy –
The North American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) said two-thirds of North America could face power shortages during periods of extreme electricity demand and high temperatures this summer.
OBSERVATION - Now add to this the EPA/WEF demand that will shut down 90% of the coal/gas power plants - with no viable replacement - and we could see portions of the country revert to the 1800’s .
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The increasingly shrill demand by some in the black community for reparations is triggering pushback from the rest of the nation. The growing demands that will likely be rejected, may trigger violent protests composed of looting and burning cities a la 2020 in the name of claiming reparations. Already, the massive shoplifting in Blue cities has the black community justifying it as collecting reparations.
Picture people trying to keep their jobs in a severe recession facing possible destruction of those jobs at the hands of mobs looking to destroy and burn those businesses to the ground.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The testimony of the FBI whistleblowers shines and ugly light on what Wray et al have turned that institution into - a filthy political hit machine - with no accountability.
China –
Chinese effort to involve the eastern nations of the former Soviet Union into an economic cooperation and infrastructure development. This, like other areas of the world, is a bait and switch as China will offer great incentives, but knowingly allow those countries to over borrow. And when they can’t make the payments, China takes physical control - be it mines and other resources, transportation assets, etc.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
Economic Impact –
G7 agrees new sanctions to ‘starve Russia’s war machine’
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
RUMINT –
There are some reports that the 2 (3?) helicopters and 2 Russian fighter jets shot down a few days ago was accomplished by missiles from a Patriot battery. This story has been floating around, unconfirmed, for a couple days now. Theoretically, the aircraft would be in range of missiles depending on location of the battery, however, it would require the battery to be dangerously close to the Ukraine border. It could be the reason Russia launched two missile strikes in an effort to take a battery out.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Situation at Bakhmut is still rather dynamic. Both sides claim gains in the city proper, while Ukraine continues to hammer the north and south flanks.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast —— A great deal of confusion concerning the status of the city. Russia claiming Bakhmut has fallen.
Ukrainian forces seized the tactical initiative & made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are part of localized UKR counter-attacks & do not reflect the start of a major new operation.
Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.
The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti (15km north of Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered the settlement.
The milbloggers comments echo those from Ukrainian forces sources.
Ukraine confirms a further 1.1 mile advance on the flanks of Bakhmut
The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade reported a breakthrough on the western outskirts of Bakhmut - Ukraine advanced 2000 meters in width and 700 meters in depth. Preliminary, the Russians have at least 50 KIA and up to a hundred WIA.
Minor Russian attacks in several locations west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK –
The great waiting game continues. Looks like Wagner will finally, after something like 10 months, gain control of the rubble that was Bakhmut. Meanwhile Ukraine is gaining momentum in seizing the surrounding territory away from Russia and may soon threaten to encircle the Wagner forces. All the while, forcing more Russian reserves to be thrown into the mix and away from an operational reserver force necessary to counter the real offensive. Though it hurt, Ukraine’s Bakhmut gambit appears to have paid off by thwarting the Russian winter offensive and allow Ukraine to attrit Russian forces in preparation for the spring offensive.
Central / South America General-
Argentine President Alberto Fernández said a 2018 $57 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy was “a crime” after a government audit found the deal did not pass through proper legislative channels.
OBSERVATION - First step in trying to declare that they don’t have today the money back.
Globalism / Great Reset –
World Economic Forum advisor Yuval Noah Harari arrived in Lisbon, Portugal, Friday, presumably to attend the 69th annual Bilderberg Group meeting, despite not formally being listed as an expected attendee.
Harari was photographed arriving at the Humberto Delgado Airport in Lisbon Thursday evening as the ultra-secretive globalist conference kicked off.
OBSERVATION - At one time laughed off as massive ‘conspiracy theory’, Bilderberg is now recognized as a cog in the greater WEF machinery doing its part in implementing Schwab’s global plans. Some observers note that significant actions have occurred after these meetings like the delay in the Iraq invasion, etc.
Harari’s presence is a reminder to the attendees that Bilderberg is subordinate to the WEF as Harari is Schuab’s right hand man.
**
According to Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper, the Group of 7 (“G7”) – Britain, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States – is considering whether to issue a statement on a global pandemic response at the 19-21 May G7 summit in Japan’s city of Hiroshima.
OBSERVATION - The WHO is supposed to be meeting next week to agree to language to modify the ‘Pandemic Treaty’ and create a global, dictatorial health authority. This global authority has the approval of biden, though it will face constitutional challenges as this treaty - dressed up as an ‘agreement’ - seeks to bypass congressional approval.
NOTE - not only are diseases a focus, but released language indicates that any ‘health’ item is open for their dictates. THIS INCLUDES GUN CONTROL as these globalists see gun crime as a health issue. This aspect hasn’t been given much daylight as the stated purpose of the ‘agreement’ is diseases and no emphasizes on other health ‘issues’.
Economy –
Markets on edge over the progress (or lack thereof) over the debt ceiling talks. The impact from even a short term shutdown of the govt could send the economy into a tail spin.
Biden / Harris watch –
biden lost another round to the stairs.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
FBI says it won’t release Jan 6 surveillance video because it would show too many undercover government agents and informants.
OBSERVATION - The FBI reported had hundreds of agent provocateurs buried into the crowds on J6 and just like the so-called kidnapping plan of Michigan’s governor, there is considerable evidence that these agents encouraged the entrance to the capitol as well as violent acts. Unveiling these agents would also tip off patriot groups to infiltrator into their ranks. I’VE BEEN SAYING these groups have been deeply penetrated by feds, collaborators and provocateurs.
Should a hot CW2 scenario kick off, it is becoming very apparent that the feds will in the mix to neutralize patriot groups as soon as possible.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debt limit talks came to an abrupt standstill Friday after Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said it’s time to “pause” negotiations, and a White House official acknowledged there are “real differences” that are making talks difficult.
One of the toughest sticking points in the talks has been the question of spending caps, a key GOP demand but a red line for many Democrats.
Biden overseas at the G7 conference has already cut short the rest of his trip and he is expected to return to Washington later Sunday.
Talks resumed later Friday night.
OBSERVATION - I’m convinced that the WH and the dems are going to drag this out as long as possible - even to the point of forcing a govt shutdown/financial crisis. They have 0bama’s example from his administration that forced the republicans to buckle. Needless to say, but say it again I will - they will burn the nation to the ground as long as they can rule over the ashes.
Illegal Immigration –
One week after Title 42 ended, the Border Patrol is “encountering” roughly 4,000 illegal migrants crossing the Mexican border between the official ports of entry per day. That’s still far too many people, but it’s less than half of the number they were seeing in the previous weeks. One reason for this is that Mexico has been loading migrants up in buses and onto planes and sending them further south to shelters. Similarly, they have been rounding up migrants close to their southern border and shipping them to facilities further north near the center of the country.
OBSERVATION - I think this will be a more temporary situation. Spring is a major period of illegal immigration because the summer heat hasn’t set in yet - when there is resulting decrease in crossings. Once the current legal challenges and processing changes are ironed out, I expect the crush to resume - as do many other observers. The end of Title 42 didn’t solve the crisis and nothing being done in its aftermath will have any long term impacts either.
**
Nearly half of hotel rooms in New York City today are filled with newly arrived border crossers and illegal aliens, living rent-free at the expense of local taxpayers, Mayor Eric Adams (D) says.
OBSERVATION - Will really impact tourism in even a bigger way, though the hotels are receiving a windfall with higher room rates than they could get from tourists. That is until repairs have to be made once the illegals are out.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
RUMINT-
RUMINT. The Wagner mercenary group is reported to be pulling its most experienced members out of Ukraine and sending them to Sudan, with remaining “unnecessary fighters” being left to die in Bakhmut. Wagner to support RSF factions against govt forces.
Kerch Bridge update –
Russia is reluctant to let any cargo truck traffic - even empty trucks - cross the repaired vehicle side of the bridge, fearing another VED attack. This forces any truck traffic to Crimea to pass through the ‘land bridge’ through occupied southern Ukraine. Russia relies heavily on rail to support its war efforts and the rail side of the bridge is still under repair - with completion still expected to be some time this summer. The bridge has been under heavy use of late as Russians fearing the Ukrainian offensive have been fleeing to Russia from southern Ukraine and Crimea.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
See potential Wagner group pullout from Ukraine under RUMINT above.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
Zelensky held meetings with the heads of delegations of the United Arab Emirates, the Sultanate of Oman and the State of Kuwait. He has now arrived in Japan to meet with G7 leaders.
US has cleared away objections to supplying F-16 fighters to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 Shahed drones and 1 reconnaissance Merlin-VR drone overnight.
Situation at Bakhmut is still rather dynamic. Reports that Ukrainian forces are defending the last portions of the town, while continuing to gain back terrain on the northern and southern flanks. RUMINT that Wagner is pulling out its main force.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has picked up overnight, with attacks from all three sides.
More attacks west of Donetsk, as Russians attempt to force their way along the H-15 highway.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast —— A great deal of confusion concerning the status of Bakhmut. It does look like the city will soon be coming under Russian control, but the question is for how long. Rumors that Russia has had to commit 4 infantry battalions to try to stabilize the situation on the flanks.
Massive explosions near an airfield in Russian held Mariupol.
Minor Russian attacks in several locations west of Donetsk, concentrating along the H-15 Highway.
OUTLOOK –
A great deal of fog of war concerning current status of operations in and around Bakhmut. I think that with Ukraine gaining increasing control of the flanks, it is staging a controlled withdrawal from the city. Further reports of Russia deploying 4 battalions of its scarce reserves -and in some reports VDV forces - to shore up the flanks show a switch in Ukrainian tactics. Russia totally doesn’t have the forces left to exploit any capture of Bakhmut. This exploitation would need armored forces to sprint across the open ground to the next significant town - Chasiv Yar. Those armor and artillery assets, let alone the soldiers, necessary for such an exploitation have been chewed up over the past 10 months of fighting.
The new willingness by the US to grant access to F-16 fighters will be a future changer, but not one for the immediate Ukrainian offensive. Short the use of some volunteer pilots, full Ukranian use will be no sooner than 4-6 months. Ukrainian pilots have shown great skill in learning the advanced avionics of the F-16 and they could be in place to shore up the sky post Ukrainian offensive.
On a more strategic level, Zelensky’s meetings with the Arab League is a slap to the Russian face who for decades held the league in its pockets. Like many other loose ‘allies’ of Russia, these countries are recalibrating their support of putin, and in many instances shifting to China who is making better financial offers. More rumors that Zelensky will visit China following his meetings with G7 leaders - another deep dig at Russia as China has been very wishy washy in its support of putin.
The status of Wagner forces in Ukraine and in particular around Bakhmut is still up in the air. Numerous claims that Wagner was pulling out of Bakhmut have been trotted out, only to be shown to be false. In this case, Wagner moving its best personnel out to support the Sudanese RSF faction has the potential to be true. Since the civil war started there a couple months ago, Wagner was already deep in the side of the RSF providing support. In the Ukraine theater, Wagner’s leader has hung his forces out in a precarious position via his very vocal attacks against the MoD and likely sees the writing on the wall over the catastrophic losses Russia could expect from the Ukraine offensive - and is the rat jumping ship. Wagner has also shown distain for its force - sending the essentially untrained recruited prisoners as cannon fodder against Ukraine positions in Bakhmut, saving its better trained forces as follow on to secure any gains. This redeployment speaks to similar tactics - pull out his best, and leave the trash to defend the ruins of the city. This will only work to Ukraine’s advantage as those remnants likely will not have much sticking power should Ukraine continue to encircle the city and the Wagner elements there find that their support from Russian forces is reduced as it responds to preparation for or counter actions against a Ukraine offensive.
IMHO the Bakhmut Tar Baby was a strategic success for Ukraine and has set them up for their counter strike.
Syria -
Jordan launched airstrikes over night targeting leaders of drug smuggling staging out of southern Syria. Is is being reported that several key leaders were killed. Jordan warned Syria of more actions if they continue to allow these drug smugglers to continue to operate unopposed.
Misc of Note –
Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday recommended, by a vote of 10 to 4, that the agency approve Pfizer’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine for pregnant women, despite questions about the vaccine’s safety.
OBSERVATION - Follow the money. Wuhan demonstrated that big pharm and in particular Phizer could care less about safety as it will be swept under the rug for the big $$$.