I’ll be headed out of town tomorrow, so it is unlikely I’ll be able to get a post out. Will try to get caught up on Sunday.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The CEO of one of the largest publicly traded hedge funds has warned that the turmoil sparked by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) is not over and a “significant number” of banks could fail in the next two years.
Man Group CEO Luke Ellis made the comments during a Bloomberg conference in London on March 22 when asked whether he believes the banking crisis is over.
“It depends on what you define as a crisis; I think that we will have a significant number of banks that will not exist 12, 24 months from now that exist today,” Ellis said.
OBSERVATION – This is likely one mechanism that the WEF will exploit to bring all into its global economic “reset” following the never leave a crisis template.
Wuhan virus –
President Joe Biden’s order that federal employees get vaccinated against COVID-19 was blocked Thursday by a federal appeals court.
The 5th US Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans rejected arguments that Biden, as the nation’s chief executive, has the same authority as the CEO of a private corporation to require that employees be vaccinated.
The ruling from the full appeals court, 16 full-time judges at the time the case was argued, reversed an earlier ruling by a three-judge 5th Circuit panel that had upheld the vaccination requirement. Judge Andrew Oldham, nominated to the court by then-President Donald Trump, wrote the opinion for a 10-member majority.
OBSERVATION – FWIW, I’m glad I retired in 2020 and not later.
Economy –
Banking aftershocks continue with Deutsche Bank’s U.S.-listed shares sliding 7.7% in the premarket after the German lender’s credit default swaps jumped. The move appeared to raise concerns once again over the health of the European banking industry.
The German lender’s shares retreated for a third consecutive day and have now lost more than a fifth of their value so far this month. Credit default swaps — a form of insurance for a company’s bondholders against its default — leapt to 173 basis points on Thursday night from 142 basis points the previous day.
OBSERVATION – I’ve been watching DB for some time now as it is one of the linchpin banks in Europe that has tons of near worthless derivatives and outstanding loans. Should DB buckle, it is unlikely that the European Central Bank or Germany has the assets available to prevent a banking melt down. That melt down would go global.
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(Bloomberg) — Banks reduced their borrowings only slightly from two Federal Reserve backstop facilities in the most recent week, a sign that institutions are taking advantage of the central bank’s liquidity in the wake of turmoil.
US institutions had a combined $163.9 billion in outstanding borrowings in the week through March 22, compared with $164.8 billion the previous week, according to Fed data Thursday.
OBSERVATION – US banking is still shaky and assets are continuing to be readjusted to try to avoid liquity issues.
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Gold has once again pushed above the $2000/oz level, first time since March 2022 and analysts suggest that the next stop will be $2100 / oz . Combination of factors include fears from the banking melt down, recession and weakened dollar.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa is reminding comrades to not livestream videos of their direct actions (because it could provide evidence of their crimes), and to attack video journalists who do record.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
America’s top Navy official declared that “fighting climate change” is a “top priority” for the U.S. Navy. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro announced this last week not at the Pentagon or the U.S. Naval Academy, but at a conference in the Bahamas.
OBSERVATION – Just another piece of evidence that this is part of a deliberate destruction of the miltary and not just incompetence.
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Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers on Thursday that it will be difficult to refill government oil reserves this year. Granholm explained that two Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) facilities are down for maintenance. Further complicating the refill is a congressionally mandated sale from the SPR.
OBSERVATION – Listed here rather than economy because levels in the SPR are at critically low levels and with the growing potential of a scrap with China and continued global instability this is clearly not good. Seems to me to be an excuse by the regime to keep our petroleum supply at a low point.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s attempt to charge Trump with a felony appears to be trailing smoke and going down. He is now back peddling and claims Trump created a ‘False Expectation’ about his alleged ‘Arrest’ – forgetting that the Manhattan court house has been surrounded by barriers for most of the week.
Rumors coming out of the jury proceedings are that the prosecutors have been unsuccessful in persuading the jury to accept that Trump is guilty of a crime.
The grand jury has been put on hold in the Trump case until next week and questions are arising that he may be trying to find a way out of his predicament. With the revelations of massive withholding of exculpatory evidence from the jury, Bragg faces the serious potential of facing disbarment proceedings. But he faces pressures from the powers that be to press forward for an indictment. Tune in next week to see what transpires.
China –
China continues to threaten US naval and aircraft that exercise open passage of the Taiwan Straits.
North/South Korea –
North Korea has tested an underwater nuclear attack ‘drone’. North Korea’s new weapon appears similar in some ways to Russia’s nuclear-capable Poseidon super torpedo, analysts note.
OBSERVATION – Kim is claiming that this is like the Russian ‘tsunami’ Poseidon device. How valid this ‘drone’ is has yet to be see, as well as does NK have a warhead that fits in it.
Some are looking at the whole of the launches since the first of the year and suggest that this is part of Kim’s testing are part of a long term operation plan for NK’s nuclear deterrent.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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NUCLEAR THREATS –
“Russia will be able to strike with nuclear weapons if Ukraine tries to retake Crimea” - Medvedev
RUMINT-
Prigozhin is preparing to “wind down” the activities of PMC “Wagner” in Ukraine and “reorient his attention to African countries” – Bloomberg
**
More rumors of putin’s poor health continue to fall out from videos of him in Crimea, with many noting a very visible limp and walking slowly.
Logistics –
The Indian Air Force has announced that Russia is unable to deliver vital defence supplies that India was supposed to receive this year.
Similar claims have been made regarding export versions of the T-72 series tanks which have shown up in Ukraine instead of the countries that bought them.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
RUMINT –
Ukraine’s top ground forces commander said his country is about to launch a counteroffensive.
“Very soon, we will take advantage of this opportunity, as we did in the past near Kyiv, Kharkiv, Balakliya and Kupiansk,” commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said Thursday on Telegram, naming locations where Ukraine reclaimed territory through counterattacks last year.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces. .
British military assessed that Russia was losing its limited momentum in Bakhmut partly because it had reallocated troops elsewhere. Current assessment is that Russia is shifting its emphasis to the battle at Avdiivka.
Slovakia delivered four MiG-29 fighter jets to the Ukrainian military Thursday, the first Western nation to provide warplanes that Zelenskyy says he desperately needs to drive Russian troops out of his war-battered country.
OUTLOOK –
No change from recent outlooks. Bahkmut and Avdiivka still appear to be the main effort now. Kreminna is a secondary threat, but Russian attacks there have not done much.
Russian attention appears to be increasingly focused on the coming Ukrainian offensive and where the hammer will fall. Even some Russian milbloggers are saying that Russia’s attacks in Bahkmut and now Avdiivka have left it vulnerable due to the losses of men and material.
As I’ve said several times before, Ukraine has the home field advantage, knowing the trerrain better and having internal lines of communication/supply that permits it to deploy forces rapidly to the point of the attack. This makes it hard for the more ponderous Russian war planners to ready any defense, and so far it seems they’ve spread themselves out a lot more than they would if they had a better feel for the Ukrainian plans.
According to reports, Ukrainian soldiers training on western weapons system are surprising their NATO instructors on how quickly and effectively they are gaining proficiency in those system, indicating that units equipped with those systems could be fielded far sooner than originally believed. Not good news for Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
The 4 largest Nordic countries - with about 250 modern combat aircraft - agreed on March 23d to operate their air forces “as one joint air force.” Sweden, Finland, Norway & Denmark already have a high degree of interoperability, so the combined operations could enhance their effectiveness even further.
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Haven’t made much to do about France’s problems, but things there are a mess. Over a million protesters call for “Macron the Dictator” to be removed. Protest started when Macron used an emergency law to impose reform without input from the Senate / Parliament. Macron used this tool 11 times in a year.
Over the course of the week, it seems French police are losing the struggle to contain many of the protests/riots. I think macron will survive and that more severe crackdowns on protestors are in the forecast.
Iran –
See US airstrike on Iranian forces in Syria below
Syria -
A U.S. contractor was killed and five U.S. service members and one U.S. contractor were wounded Thursday when a suicide drone hit a coalition base near Hasakah in northeast Syria just before 2 p.m. local time, the Defense Department said in a statement.
The US quickly responded by launching airstrikes against IRGC backed militias in the Harabesh part of Deir Ez Zor. Those strikes reportedly targeted an ammunition depot belonging to Iranian Revolutionary Guard militia near the former Nasr Center building, in addition to targeting another site in the vicinity of Port Said Street in Deir Ez Zor center.
A lot of activity continues in the area following the US air strike.
Intensive flight of helicopters and warplanes of the International Coalition forces over the Al-Omar oil field and the SDF-controlled areas in the eastern countryside of Deir Ezzor “Dhiban-Al-Basira-Al-Shuhail” opposite the areas controlled by Assad’s forces and Iranian militias in Al-Mayadin and its countryside east of Deir Ezzor (Al-Shamiya region).
OBSERVATION – Well, at least someone in the chain of command recognizes that the only way to deal with Iran in a situation like this is to hit them really hard back.
Central / South America General-
Bolivian President Luis Arce delivered statements Thursday encouraging the cooperation of Latin American nations on the extraction and sale of lithium. President Arce seemed particularly concerned about the U.S. and said, “We don’t want our lithium to be in the Southern Command’s crosshairs, nor do we want it to be a reason for destabilizing democratically elected governments or foreign harassment.” Bolivia has the world’s largest known lithium deposits. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Latin American countries have been shifting to the hard left over the past few years. With the growing demand for rare earth minerals this concept of a type of OPEC for these minerals is not surprising.. China has been wooing these countries as well and has gained the upper hand over the US in that arena.
Potential for wintery driving conditions today caused me to hurry up and get my out of town travel accomplished yesterday.
Globalism / Great Reset –
EPA Administrator Michael Regan told the Senate Committee on Environmental and Public Works that the EPA needed a $375-million budget increase and 265 new full-time employees for his agency’s “environmental justice program.”
“The funding will help to expand support for community based organizations, indigenous organizations, tribes, states, local government and other territorial governments so that they can identify and develop solutions to their environmental justice concerns through multi-partner collaborations”
The EPA’s Office of Environmental Justice and External Civil Rights was spawned in September, when it landed $3 billion in so-called environmental justice grants as part of the Democrats’ $370-billion climate alarmist bill. The expansion was part and parcel of the Biden regime’s “aggressive approach to embed environmental justice, civil rights, and equity across the government,” according to the EPA.
OBSERVATION – SMH, this telegraphs an effort to further redistribute wealth towards the woke side of the equation by likely litigating mythical environmental conspiracy talk of the left against the right. Just another mechanism for environmental tyranny to further the cause of the WEF.
BTW – don’t expect EPA ‘environmental justice’ teams to be showing up in East Palestine OH anytime soon.
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The EU sees no reason to allow the Netherlands to change course, despite a resounding rejection of EU agriculture policies during recent elections.
The Netherlands has been advised by Diederik Samsom, who works for the European Commission, to oblige some of the farmers to be bought out because of the nitrogen crisis.
The NOS and research platform Follow the Money revealed Samsom’s role after viewing documents. Caroline van der Plas (BBB), together with her colleagues from VVD and JA21, asks the minister for a response to this ‘strange interference’ by Diederik Samsom. “He’s not even an elected representative of the people,” she tweeted. PVV leader Geert Wilders is even more outspoken: ‘Unelected PvdA mastodon Diederik Samsom wants to tear the Netherlands down completely from the Brussels backrooms. How I long for a #nexit.’
The European Commission is not concerned with how a country achieves its nitrogen targets, but it can advise on this. Samsom seems to have done the same in that conversation. He pointed out, among other things, that the European Commission is ‘quite strict’ when assessing whether voluntary buyout schemes are not prohibited state aid. One is now awaiting approval in Brussels. But with a mandatory buyout, the Commission is less strict, said Samsom. As a result, the Netherlands can offer higher amounts in a mandatory scheme or more favorable conditions for farmers to stop. According to Samsom, there is little room for delay or flexibility at the European Commission.
OBSERVATION – As reported earlier, the farmers won a massive victory in parliamentary elections – effectively thwarting the govt’s desire to seize the vast majority of the nations farms. However, they are shackled by membership in the EU which claims superior authority for national policy and is demanding Dutch compliance with its edicts anyway. This is setting up a power struggle between the newly aware Dutch govt and the EU over control of internal policies – and eventually if the WEF goals are to be enforced.
Economy –
Bloomberg reported that Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will convene the heads of top US financial regulators Friday morning for a previously unscheduled meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council.
The meeting will be closed to the public, the Treasury Department said in a statement. The Treasury didn’t say what time the meeting would begin, and it wasn’t immediately clear whether the council would issue a statement following the meeting.
OBSERVATION – I have not heard/seen any statements regarding this meeting. There are many possibilities for topics. One I’m most concerned currently is the instability of Deutches Bank, currently struggling with realigning its debt and liquidity issues. Other issues could be the ongoing drain by banks pulling emergency funds from the fed and Treasury dept. This trend threatens the continued semi-stability on the short term of the banking system. Would appreciate any tips to the outcome of the meetings.
CW2/Domestic violence –
On Friday, DeKalb County, Ga., CEO Michael Thurmond issued an executive order closing the popular 140-acre Intrenchment Creek Park after someone discovered booby traps hidden in various places in the park. The traps, which included boards with spikes sticking out of them hidden in the grass and along the trails in the park, appear to have been designed to hurt families who enjoy the park throughout the week.
Intrenchment Creek Park is near the construction site of a public training safety complex that the City of Atlanta is building. Domestic terrorists aligned with Antifa and Stacey Abrams’ New Georgia Project have disrupted activity, harassed contractors, and committed acts of violence at the site for over a year, including a shootout with police that left an Antifa thug dead and a Georgia State Trooper injured in January.
“We know that there are dangers that have been discovered in this area and we are afraid that there might be other hidden traps that will not only injure and maim, but can literally become deadly for small children and pets and others,” Thurmond said at a press conference on Friday.
OBSERVATION – Most likely Antifa et al view use of the park as a ‘white privilege’ kind of thing and sabotaging it a means of striking back against the system that is oppressing them – or some similar crap. This is an escalation of the protest of the Police academy training facility and like all Antifa related actions show little to no concern for any collateral damage or injury their protests cause.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Ramadan continues to keep the potential for terror attacks higher than usual.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Fortieth Anniversary of President Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative Speech, No. 550, March 23, 2023 was remembered in virtual silence yet no other initiative post Kennedy’s push to the moon has had such significance IMHO. Scoffed as wild and unobtainable then, today the concept of missile interception is integrated into our advanced air defense and strategic missile defense systems. Patriot missiles did a fair job against Iraqi Scuds in Desert Shield/Storm, but now with upgrades are a more potent anti missile system. Seeing much the same in Ukraine today.
For those of us who have lived through this era, it is more apparent on how Reagan was a visionary in this regard.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Waiting to see if movement towards a Trump indictment next week will happen or if the Manhattan DA is going to get cold feet and back down.
China –
China threatened “serious consequences” Friday after the United States Navy sailed a destroyer around the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea for the second day in a row, in a move Beijing claimed was a violation of its sovereignty and security.
On Thursday, after the U.S. sailed the USS Milius guided-missile destroyer near the Paracel Islands, China said its navy and air force had forced the American vessel away, a claim the U.S. military denied.
The U.S. on Friday sailed the ship again in the vicinity of the islands, which are occupied by China but also claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam, as part of what it called a “freedom of navigation operation” challenging requirements from all three nations requiring either advance notification or permission before a military vessel sails by.
“Unlawful and sweeping maritime claims in the South China Sea pose a serious threat to the freedom of the seas, including the freedoms of navigation and overflight, free trade and unimpeded commerce, and freedom of economic opportunity for South China Sea littoral nations,” U.S. 7th Fleet spokesperson Lt. j.g. Luka Bakic said in an emailed statement.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/china-threatens-consequences-us-warships-actions-98093850
OBSERVATION – China is pretty much limited to threats at this stage. Any military action against US vessels would open a pandora’s box that China isn’t ready for. Unlike the Philippine navy, the US navy is not intimidated by Chinese threats and naval aggressiveness. In the past China has chased Philippino naval vessels away from waters it claims, like those around the Paracel Islands. Also note that the Philippines and the US are approaching an agreement for joint patrols of disputed waters.
At this stage, China is limited to threats.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts –
1) the Svatove-Kreminna front,
2) Bahkmut region,
3) Donetsk region and
4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is rapidly losing its capability to sustain offensive operations in these fronts due to the huge resource drain Bahkmut has created. Some offensive operation will continue to be attempted, however, a lot of assessment indicates they’ve lost the capability to sustain a credible offensive to try to capture the Donbas region having frittered away resources against Bahkmut.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs now reaching the 60’s with rain/snow over most of the forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Fighting continues around Bakhmut and Avdiivka with minor gains by Russian forces. Both Russian and Ukranian sources are stating that the Russian push in Bakhmut is slowing significantly. Western analysts have been saying for a week now that the Russian push has crested and that little further gains are expected .
With the slow down at Bakhmut, it appears some resources are being switched over to the Avdiivka region to support Russian successes there.
The Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes.
OUTLOOK –
No change from recent outlooks. Bahkmut and Avdiivka still appear to be the main effort now. Kreminna is a secondary threat, but Russian attacks there have not done much.
Internet rumors / propaganda continue from both sides regarding Ukraine’s impending offensive are increasing. Some Russian commentators say Russia needs to reinforce the region with 400,000 new forces to address the Ukrainian threat. Given the likelihood that the window for Ukrainian action is about a month away (end of April), raising, training and equipping that size of a force in that amount of time is highly unlikely.
Just like the impotence of Russia’s air campaign on the ‘special operation’ has been shockingly poor, Russia’s missile/drone component has been nearly equally poor IMHO. Russian targets have strayed away from those that would influence the battle on the ground and stayed within a ‘total war’ style doctrine where civilian targets are primary. Ukraine has set the bar high in striking Russian CPs, logistic and troop concentrations. Russia has done very poorly in that measure. As a result, Ukraine is still able to move, shoot and communicate effectively, while Russia suffers impared command, control and logistics.
The nature of this war shows the next generation of innovation. With Ukraine’s effective utilization of the Bayktar TB-2 drones to harass and interdict Russian logistical convoys at the start of the war, to the proliferation of modified commercial helicopter styled drones dropping grenades all the way up to mortar rounds on enemy positions. Add to it the modification of ‘racing’ drones to direct attack armor/positions; military loitering munitions and the multiple combination of drones used in operations (observation, targeting and attacking) has made life for the Russians in particular very deadly. With it comes a rapidly evolving counter drone effort - from jamming ‘guns’ to chain link fences to ward off Russian lancet attack drones and dropped grenades, to drone v drone dog fights. Now with Ukraine fielding sea drones, the whole spectrum shifts again. Drone wars are the future and if AI gets involved along with swarm technology things will get even more intense in the next war.
Iran –
See US airstrike on Iranian forces in Syria below
RUMINT- Missiles Units of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Aerospace Force in the Western Regions of Iran are claimed to have been placed on High Alert overnight.
As Ramadan moves into its 4th day, Iran is finding itself intwined in several regional, developing hot spots, from Syria to Azerbaijan.
Iraq -
Unconfirmed reports of some sort of security operation underway in the northern Green Zone, Baghdad. Security Forces high alert for rocket attacks, but nothing reported.
Syria -
Militant groups believed to be affiliated with Iran launched another round of rockets targeting US forces near oil and gas fields known as Conoco near Deir ez-Zor, eastern Syria. Sources in the countryside of Deir ez-Zor, told RT at dawn on Saturday that shelling originating from the west of the Euphrates River targeted Koniko field, in which the largest US base in Syria is located, with 15 missiles.
This resulted in more US airstrikes and helicopter gunships targeting Iranian militia targets.
Iranian militias on alert in the towns of Al-Mayadeen and Al-Bukamal, east of Deir ez-Zor, with the evacuation of the headquarters amid intense flights of the international coalition aircraft over the region.
So far this morning activity has calmed down but more can be expected.
OBSERVATION – If US military intelligence has been doing its work (and I have no reason not to believe so), every facility, Hq and missile site for these Iranian militia groups and IRGC have been identified with 10-foot accuracy. It appears that the US has so far been able to react rapidly to these attacks and probably used its intel preparation to hit these forces hard. The next few days will show if the Iranians want to up the ante further.
Some are believing that the initial rocket attacks were in revenge for an Israeli strike earlier in the week that took out some key IRGC commanders. This is also Ramadan, and as I noted a few days ago under domestic and international terror, Iran may choose to increase terror attacks. These attacks may well fall under that category as well.
Misc of Note –
At least 23 people have died after tornadoes tore through the US state of Mississippi on Friday night. One tornado was a particularly long-track variety which at times was as much as one mile wide.
OBSERVATION – Many would conclude that the US is in the throes of wild climatic changes never before seen. From droughts to floods, tornados, frigid temperatures, etc. the US has been seeing a lot of extreme weather the past couple of years. However, I don’t think it has reached the level that done could call biblical. For example, the Sierra Nevada snowpack – though massive – at Donner Pass is only the 8th deepest since 1957. We must not confuse the overload of information today as being historically constant. We are coming out of a La Nina cycle and the weather patterns are trying to re-adjust to a neutral influence. This doesn’t take away from the human devastation that is on-going, but puts things into context.