Globalism / Great Reset –
A counter-terrorism program in the United Kingdom that was originally designed to focus on stopping radical Muslim jihadists from terrorizing the country could soon be modified to also include the “unvaccinated” as targets.
British SNP politician Kirsten Oswald believes that the so-called “Prevent” program is perhaps a bit too “racist” in its current form because it risks marginalizing Great Britain’s ever-growing Muslim communities. To fix it, Oswald wants unvaccinated people to be added to the country’s terrorism watchlist.
Oswald made these remarks during a speech by Home Secretary Suella Braverman about plans for “major reform” to the Prevent program. Braverman told the room full of MPs (members of parliament) that the new-and-improved Prevent program must focus “on security, not political correctness.”
OBSERVATION – The unjabbed are apparently a threat to the WEF/GGR crowd and their minions on various govt levels are taking measures to identify, track and in this case, make plans to criminally target them. The past few months here in the US CDC has issued computer codes to identify those who’ve not been jabbed and transplant patients across the globe continue to have lifesaving operations done unless the patient gets the jab.
When this whole thing got started and the ‘conspiracy theory’ of the jab being a genocidal weapon sounded too far fetched. Today, with the evidence from the Twitter files, medical studies confirming early suspicions about extensive lethal adverse affects and the effort to continue to force a jab that has been demonstrated to be ineffective on all ages has changed my mind – big time. Joe and Jane Sheeple living under cover of normalcy bias and ignoring these facts are going to have a rude awakening.
**
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) on Monday announced a proposal to eliminate ESG banking and prohibit the financial sector from implementing social credit scores that would otherwise prevent Floridians from obtaining loans, lines of credit and opening bank accounts.
OBSERVATION – ESG scoring is a major component of the WEF/GGR efforts to restructure the way we live. Combined with a CBDC, the economic tyrants could withhold funds to pay for anti-ESG items such as ammo, guns, gasoline, etc. Fights are at a state level because the fed govt is in bed with the WEF and will institute its mandates – hiding behind govt/private partnerships to circumvent the congressional processes.
Big names are already pushing the ESG message – BlackRock and JP Morgan come to mind quickly.
Economy –
The Federal Reserve will need to continue to raise interest rates in order to get them to a level high enough to bring inflation back down to the central bank’s target rate, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said on Monday.
“I expect we’ll continue to increase the federal funds rate because we have to bring inflation back down to our 2 percent goal and in order to do that we need to bring demand and supply into better balance,” Bowman said during an American Bankers Association conference in Florida.
The Fed’s benchmark overnight lending rate is currently in the 4.50 percent–4.75 percent range. Once at a sufficiently restrictive level, interest rates will then need to be held for “some time” to restore price stability, Bowman said without offering specifics on the rate peak she would like to see.
OBSERVATION – “some time” requires significant damage to an already wuhan injured economy with massive global instabilities from the Ukraine war and questionable energy supplies. As many note – the housing market is usually one of the prime indicators that lead us into and out of recessions and the market is crashing. Extended “some time” will cut matters to the bone, making any recovery long and tedious IMHO and experience.
Invasion of Illegals –
Apparently even illegal friendly Canada has had enough of illegals coming into the country.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden in Poland on Feb 20th for a speech and to mark the 1 year anniversary of the Ukraine war.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The Biden administration and Democrats in New York, Connecticut and other states are fighting local zoning laws in order to build high-rise apartment buildings with “affordable” units in tree-lined, single-family neighborhoods. All in the name of equity, meaning everyone can live in a tranquil suburb, whether they’ve earned the money to pay for it or not.
The Biden administration announced Jan. 19 that it will require all towns across the U.S. to submit “Equity Plans” showing how they will make it possible for low-income people to live there by providing affordable housing, transportation and other resources. Towns that don’t meet the cookie-cutter requirement for economic diversity will lose federal funding.
OBSERVATION – See also how this fits into the “15 minute city” concept. Stuffing high density, apartment housing in single family neighborhoods is just looking to cause problems. Call me racist or bigoted, but most of these apartments will be designated for low income individuals via federal mandates. And with it all the associated crime – because the same lax criminal “justice” system will continue to dump criminals back onto the streets of these suburbs to commit more crime.
On a CW2 level, the current mix of urban and suburban living has a blue/red (respectively ) connotation. Under the current status quo, if/when things go sideways, chaos will hit the urban core first then work outward towards suburbs. We’ve seen similar in Kalifornia last summer with the mob raids on shopping centers, starting in those adjacent to the Urban centers, then moving quickly outward to the richer suburbs. Under this administrations push, criminal (and likely gang) activity will be present sooner and pose a greater CW2 threat.
Expect to see this push also head into rural areas as this will affect all communities.
**
Biden administration is planning to sell 26 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The Department of Energy asked Congress to block the sale so the department can begin refilling the SPR, which will drop to 345 million barrels with the latest drawdown. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Biden is deliberately moving us well within the danger zone and any significant oil supply crunch could cause irrevocable harm.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Direct TV/ATT receiving more flack from multiple groups over its removal of NewsMax.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Buttigieg did not make a single comment about the train crash in Ohio.
Instead, he complained about the whiteness of the construction industry.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
A U-Haul truck driver mowed down pedestrians in Brooklyn Monday morning, injuring people at multiple locations. Police said at least eight people were injured in the rampage, A man in his 30s was struck on Fourth Avenue and taken to an area hospital in critical condition, while three other men on mopeds suffered minor injuries after being hit.
A suspect taken into custody has been identified as Weng Sor, 62, two sources told CBS News senior investigative producer Pat Milton. The suspect, who has a Nevada driver’s license, rented the truck in Daytona Beach, Florida, in January, according to the sources. The suspect may have been living out of the truck, according to the sources.
OBSERVATION – No motive has been identified, but the driver has a criminal record from Nevada. This kind of action has been used by terrorists across the world.
**
Posting here because of questions this attack raises. At least three people have been killed after a gunman opened fire at Michigan State University (MSU), police say.
As well as the three victims, police said the suspect had died apparently from a “self-inflicted gunshot wound”. Another five people were injured in the attack at the main campus in the city of East Lansing late on Monday.
Police described the suspect as “a black male, shorter in stature”. They later said he was 43 years old with no known affiliation to the university. He has been found dead with self-inflicted gunshot wounds.
OBSERVATION – Black history month and a black goes on a shooting spree. This event will likely go back under the radar because it doesn’t fit the gun control narrative. Need to stay tuned to find out what the motive was.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Potentially large piece of the 2,000 lb Chinese spy craft fished off the bottom of the Atlantic after being shot down Feb. 4 This piece apparently contained critical electronics from the suspected Chinese spy balloon, including key sensors - Reuter
**
The U.S. Air Force F-16Cs which downed the “UFO” over Lake Huron yesterday reportedly missed their first AIM-9X Air-To-Air Missile and were forced to fire another which made Direct Contact. Missile hasn’t been found.
China –
A statement released Monday by the Philippine Coast Guard said the Chinese vessel “illuminated the green laser light twice” and “also made dangerous maneuvers” to block a Philippine fleet from delivering supplies to another ship grounded at Second Thomas Shoal, also known as Ayungin Shoal, a disputed atoll 120 miles off the west coast of the Philippine island of Palawan.
The Philippines has accused China of “a blatant disregard” and “clear violation” of sovereignty, alleging that a Chinese coast guard ship last week directed a “military-grade laser light” at a Philippine Coast Guard ship in the hotly contested South China Sea, temporarily blinding the Filipino crew onboard.
OBSERVATION – China continues to intimidate smaller countries like the Phillippines in waters they claim as theirs. See also Japan for new Japanese-Philippian agreements in progress.
Japan –
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said he has no issues if the country signs a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with Japan if it increases maritime security and greater protection of fishermen. Marcos visited Japan to increase security ties with the country, which culminated in signing a pact that allows their militaries to work together during disaster relief operations.
OBSERVATION – Japan and other nations like the Phillippines are working hard and fast to secure agreements for mutual levels of defense in the face of growing Chinese aggression.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Missed this yesterday. The United States has told its citizens to leave Russia immediately due to the war in Ukraine and the risk of arbitrary arrest or harassment by Russian law enforcement agencies. Other nations have also reiterated the warning to not only leave Russia but Belarus as well. Most of the warning was a continuation of the warning given a year ago just prior to the Russian invasion and restated after Griner was arrested. Key target groups are those holding dual citizenship and the risk of being forced into military service.
Kerch Bridge update –
Recent satellite photos show resurfacing of the roadway suggesting that it could soon be open. Work to repair the rail bridge continues, with a completion date still some time this summer.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Russian general Vladimir Makarov dies in apparent suicide weeks after being fired, TASS reports
- Rumors that putin is holding back the call up of another major mobilization because the previous/current one has been so screwed up and they are still unable to get the mobilies processed, trained adequately and to the front with the equipment they need.
- Many reports – possible Ukrainian based propaganda – have Russian territorial volunteers posting videos on social media complaining on how they are being treated.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy fighting continues to be centered around Bahkmut and Kreminna. Fighting along the Zaporizhizhia front has ground to a halt following last weeks essential annihilation of 4 Russian combat brigades. Russian artillery strikes were primarly centered along the Donetsk-Svatove front in the east, while being widely scattered across the rest of the LOC.
OUTLOOK –
NATO has officially stated that Russia has started its winter offensive to try to capture the Donbas. After a week of heavy attacks, Russia has made very, very little progress. It appears that maneuvers to encircle Bahkmut are sputtering out, with only minor gains on the northern flank. Intense counter attacks in the Kreminna region have made little progress as well and as noted before the offensive in the Zaporizhizhia region was an absolute disaster in the decimation of 4 Russian brigades.
Unless Russia pulls a rabbit out of their hat, this offensive is going to leave them in a worse position than what they started at – with a lot of losses in men and equipment. Ukraine meanwhile is in the process of fielding 4 new brigades with modern, western equipment. One could forget that Ukraine initiated a million man mobilization last February and a lot of them have been receiving modern combat training. The success of the Kharkiv and Kherson offensive actions last year are evidence of that.
Russian command seems to be mired in the same old rut, made deeper by the loss of may generals and other officers and continued poor logistical planning. Again, they may have something up their sleeves but time is running out for them.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova temporarily closed its airspace, until 16:00, according to local media and Air Moldova.
It is reported that the reason for this was a Russian reconnaissance drone that flew into the airspace of Moldova. There is no official confirmation of this yet.
OBSERVATION – Continuation of rising tensions with Russian occupied Transnistria.
Belarus -
Russian forces are again setting up large military camps in Voronezh and Kursk regions, this was also seen before the renewed invasion last year. One of the newly established camp in Postoyalye Dvory, is located east of Kursk.
Although there is large offensives taking place on the eastern frontline, It is also possible they open a new frontline in spring.
OBSERVATION – Current estimates of 9000 Russian soldiers currently in Belarus and most of those being newly mobilized and undergoing training. At this stage reestablishment of these military camps is important, but the massive influx of Russian soldiers and equipment that marked the buildup to the start of the current war is absent.
**
Russian President Putin is set to most likely meet Belarusian President Lukashenko on Friday in which they will reportedly discuss the possibility of steps to increase the “Security and Cooperation” between the Nations.
OBSERVATION – Putin probably trying to twist the arm of Lukashenko to get the more deeply involved in Ukraine war. Increased ‘cooperation’ may also mean Belarus supplying more war materials and perhaps even conscripting ‘volunteers’ to join Russian forces in Wagner like paramilitary groups.
Two Dutch F-35 jets have “remotely escorted” a Russian spy plane and two fighters which crossed into Polish airspace, Netherlands says. Royal Dutch Air Force is carrying out Nato’s air policing mission in Poland. First time such intervention made since Ukraine conflict began – BBC
OBSERVATION – Russia playing ‘chicken’ and applying pressure to NATO in a manner designed to encourage them to back down from supporting Ukraine.
Syria -
Pro-Assad forces and the Russian and Iranian militias are targeting the outskirts of the town of Maarat Al-Naasan, east of Idlib, with missiles.
OBSERVATION – Earthquake recovery is on going and Assad and his gang decide to start bombing what remains .
Turkey -
As of yesterday, the official death toll figures from last week’s magnitude 7.8 earthquake in Turkey and Syria rose above 37,000.
Misc of Note –
East Palestine, Ohio, and surrounding region are facing a massive emergency following major release of toxins due to a train derailment. Vinyl Chloride, a deadly chemical has “contaminated the Ohio River due to train derailment. Documented animal and fish kills tens of miles away from the derailment site. 10% of the U.S. population, over 30 MILLION PEOPLE, live in the Ohio River Basin! The Ohio River itself provides drinking water to over 5 MILLION PEOPLE!
Now add to it, other train derailments in –
- Montgomery county, TX
- Spartanburg county, SC
OBSERVATION – The USEPA approved of the decision to burn the contaminants in Ohio; clearly another inept govt agency. This disaster was just made worse - it made it HUGE. Clean up the region may damage agriculture and other businesses for years, let along the deadly chemicals humans have been exposed to. If it can mass kill off birds and fish in very little time at all, human exposures likely to create serious health issues.
The other derailments causing concern are possibly just information bias, smaller derailments that are not beyond ‘background’ levels but inflated because of the Ohio disaster. Worth monitoring to see if a pattern of potential sabotage is identified.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Klaus Schwab: “Who masters those technologies (AI) - in some way - will be the master of the world.” speech at the “World Government Summit”
OBSERVATION – In this I think he is correct. No wonder such a push at the WEF level to have its players in control of it. The latest from the chat bot Ais show huge potential for evil.
**
Musk addressed the audience at the World Government Summit (WGS). The WGS is a high-profile event where leaders are expected to exchange ideas and visions about pressing issues that are prevalent today. The event features thousands of leaders, including 250 ministers and the heads of 80 international, regional, and governmental organizations.
“If you look at history at the rise and fall of civilizations, throughout history, civilizations have risen and fallen, but it hasn’t meant the doom of humanity as a whole because there have been all these separate civilizations that were separated by great distances,” Musk said. A warning that global govt could lead to civilizational collapse.
OBSERVATION – Completely counter to the standard mantra of the WEF/GGR crowd. Interesting, given Musk’s links to the WEF.
**
On Tuesday, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the federal government’s commitment to spend $196.1 billion on healthcare over the next ten years.
The package did not even come close to meeting the expectations of the various provincial and territorial leaders.
According to reports, the proposal comes with the condition for digital ID data collection. Trudeau is trying to blackmail to get Canadians to sign up for Digital ID.
“Yesterday, in Canada, Justin Trudeau met will all of our provincial premiers,” Tiktok user (@introverts008) said.
“And basically told them that we would not be able to get funding for our healthcare unless the premiers agree to the digital IDs…You will not be able to access any healthcare without these digital IDs. You will actually not be able to carry a bank account or do anything online regarding financial transactions…For farmers and consumers, you will not be able to get into stores. You will not be able to even sell anywhere. Once they have this system in place, this is where the digital currency will come in…You will not be able to shop online…You will literally need this ID in order to get TikTok, Twitter, or Facebook. No more fake accounts…If you want your taxes done or any sort of government benefits, you will need a digital ID…You will not be able to get an Internet provider without this digital ID, and they will be able to track you. This is basically a hostage situation of our tax money.”
OBSERVATION – I’ve noted time and again that Trudeau is establishing Canada as the test bed for WEF/GGR policies and practices. Here he threatens to weld the hammer of govt to force the digital ID policy on unwilling subjects – this is tyranny folks and you better realize that democrats have similar in their sights for here in America.
Economy –
Economists are expecting that CPI will show a 0.4% increase in January, which would translate into 6.2% annual growth, according to Dow Jones. Excluding food and energy, so-called core CPI is projected to rise 0.3% and 5.5%, respectively.
However, there’s some indication the number could be even higher.
The Cleveland Fed’s “Nowcast” tracker of CPI components is pointing toward inflation growth of 0.65% on a monthly basis and 6.5% year over year. On the core, the outlook is for 0.46% and 5.6%.
The initially reported 0.1% decline in the headline CPI for December has been revised up, and is now showing a gain of 0.1%, according to revisions released Friday.
OBSERVATION – This may drive the fed to make its next rate hike higher than has currently been forecast (+25 points). Energy will become a greater driver as gasoline prices are still forecast to go above $4/gal this summer – a factor that will trickle down across the whole economy.
**
U.S. companies’ earnings woes are likely to extend beyond the weak fourth quarter, as a booming labor market weighing on margins looks set to hurt results in the first half of this year.
Expectations for U.S. earnings to decline in the first and second quarter come amid weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter results for 2022, which Credit Suisse estimates will be the worst earnings season outside of a recession in 24 years.
OBSERVATION – Not good considering that the fed is looking to continue raising the prime rate and are peddling the idea of a ‘soft’ landing for the economy.
**
Bureau of Labor Statistics changed how the Consumer Price Index is calculated. CPI is now calculated based on the trailing 12 months of data instead of the preceding two years. By revising the data pool, BLS will phase out the worst of 2022’s inflation a year early. Using this new formula, the CPI’s inflation reading should decline substantially heading into next year. (FO)
OBSERVATION – Just like with the employment numbers – inflation numbers are being cooked to make them look better for democrats (biden in particular). It is doubtful that the change in coming up with the CPI is going to win that many given the widespread skepticism of the past CPI’s and what consumers are actually paying.
Invasion of Illegals –
Canadian officials have asked New York City Mayor Eric Adams to “immediately” stop sending illegal aliens across the northern US border into Canada, just one week after reports that the National Guard has been helping distribute taxpayer-funded one-way tickets from Manhattan.
“Any form of assistance to migrants crossing the border where it is strictly forbidden to do so should stop immediately,” reads a statement from the office of Quebec Premier Francois Legault. “We understand that the situation of migrants in New York poses major challenges, but the situation in Quebec and particularly in Montreal is even worse and constitutes an important humanitarian issue.”
**
Border Patrol agents assigned to the five Texas-based border sectors apprehended nearly 485,000 migrants who crossed the border from Mexico into this border region since October 1, 2022. This represents nearly 64 percent of all migrant crossings along the southwest border with Mexico.
Agents assigned to the El Paso, Big Bend, Del Rio, Laredo, and Rio Grande Valley sectors apprehended 484,527 migrants who crossed from Mexico during the first four months of Fiscal Year 23. This is up from the same period in FY22 when agents encountered 400,219 migrants — an increase of 21 percent.
OBSERVATION – Things continue to get worse at the border.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Tuesday that Biden “is the best communicator that we have in the White House.”
OBSERVATION – How can she say this with a straight face?
POLITICAL FRONT –
Congress (both sides of the aisle) demanding more information on the “unidentified aerial objects” being shot down recently. Complaining of a lack of transparency by the biden regime.
**
Silence from the biden regime regarding the growing disaster in Ohio. Soil and water samples across the region are coming in and the results are not good at all.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Facepalm time - -CBS News has learned that U.S. intelligence watched the Chinese spy balloon as it lifted off near China’s south coast, meaning the U.S. military had been tracking it for nearly a week before it entered U.S. airspace.
**
2 NORAD F-16s supported by F-35s, an E-3B Sentry, and KC-135s reportedly intercepted 4 Russian Military Aircraft consisting of 2 Tu-95 “Bear” Strategic Bombers and 2 Su-35 “Flanker-E” Multi-Role Fighters over the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone yesterday; the Russian Aircraft were intercepted and escorted until it was determined that they were planning to stay in International Airspace. This intercept is seen by NORAD as relatively routine with Russian Military Aircraft probing the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone at least 6-7 times a year.
OBSERVATION – Nothing outside of the norm, but if intrusions increase then the concern level rises.
**
The Philippines and the United States will this year carry out their biggest joint military drills since 2015, Manila’s army chief said on Wednesday, against a backdrop of growing tensions with China in the South China Sea.
The annual ‘Balikatan’ exercises will be conducted in the second quarter and involve more than the previous year’s 8,900 troops, army chief Romeo Brawner told reporters.
OBSERVATION – The China threat is driving the Philippines back towards the US after a number of years of strained relations.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces have initiated an offensive who’s declared goals are to reach and secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Troop and equipment build up is being noted
This offensive action is focused on several fronts – 1) the Svatove-Kreminna front, 2) Bahkmut region, 3) Donetsk region and 4) Zaporizhizhia Oblast around the town of Vuhledar.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Putin to address Federal Assembly at noon on 21th of February. The Federation Council re-scheduled their extraordinary meeting from 1st March to 22nd February.
OBSERVATION – A lot of speculation on why the changes - everything ranging from a full declaration of war to another massive mobilization. At this stage it is a wait and see. Remember, the first year anniversary of the war is Feb 24th.
One year ago today, thousands of Russian troops, tanks, and trucks departed an assortment of FOB facilities across Belarus and Russia for combat positions along the border with Ukraine.
I found the linked graph indicative of the ebb and flow of the war. Note that under the current Russian push very little actual terrain has been recouped. It shows the initial successes of Russia, the bog down and withdrawal from the north and the Ukrainian offenses. Created by ISW.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Fo8pANNXEBovSzz?format=jpg&name=large
It is apparent that even with some gains around Bahkmut, Russia has done very little of late.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Norwegian intelligence reports that ships of Russia’s North Sea Fleet are deploying with nuclear weapons for the first time in 30 years.
RUMINT-
In fear for his life, putin has taken to riding in heavily armored and protected trains to get to different locations.
**
Western intelligence shows that Russians is amassing aircraft and helicopters on the Ukrainian border, officials say - FT
U.S. Defense Secretary Austin: We don’t currently see Russia massing aircraft for a potential larger air attack
OBSERVATION - I suspect that some of this is propaganda designed to increase the urgency to provide support to Ukraine. Russia has failed to establish air superiority in the nearly year of combat. See Ukraine – Outlook for more thoughts on this ‘build up’
More like the above, continued warnings that Russia is massing 300-500K troops to prosecute their offensive.
Kerch Bridge update –
Full traffic clearance on the left lane of the Crimean bridge will take place at the end of February, says The Federal Road Transport Agency Rosavtodor
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures will remain around freezing (upper 20s to low 30s) increasing snow. Overnight lows in the mid to upper teens.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces are being given orders to advance in most sectors but they have not massed sufficient offensive combat power on any one axis to achieve a decisive effect - UK Ministry of Defense
Heavy fighting continues to be centered around Bahkmut and Donetsk this morning. Ukrainian counter attacks have reportedly succeeded on driving Russian forces on the southern flank of Bahkmut back by as much as a kilometer – a distance it took Russia weeks to capture.
Russian attacks along the Svatove – Kreminna line are reportedly by company and smaller sized units -suspect these are to try to fix Ukranian forces in place.
Minor action along the Zaporizhizhia front. Nothing really significant at this time.
OUTLOOK –
The Russian offensive continues to sputter IMHO and unless they have something else planned, it isn’t going to get much further.
The whole discussion on the reported build-up of aircraft, helicopters and hundreds of thousands of troops just doesn’t match what was observed in the days leading up to the start of the war.
Now to play devil’s advocate – what if it is true, what might we see if they engage. The start of the war had a dramatic airmobile assault to capture an airfield close to Kyiv. It partially succeeded but failed as the ground forces couldn’t link up and these VDV forces were taken apart in piecemeal fashion by a partially ready Ukrainian defense. Russian troops at the time were adequately trained and relatively well equipped. Such an operation requires a well trained force and excellent coordination. But is failed.
Today, the Russian military is even more poorly trained, poorly equipped than a year ago and is missing a lot of generals and other senior officers. The remaining VDV forces have been ground down in the fighting for places like Bahkmut. One the Ukraine side - they are armed to the teeth with air defense capabilities. Russia has been unable to obtain air superiority except locally and at this stage there suppression efforts have not been very successful.
The lack of training has shown up in the Russian forces over the past couple weeks particularly. Human wave attacks and armored brigades being torn up – huge losses.
Bottom line IMHO, is that this is propaganda designed to hasten western arms and munitions to Ukraine. Results on the battlefield are so far not going well for Russia.
Turkey -
Turkey-Syria earthquake - death toll passes 41,000