Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
There is a significant chance that the cartel will attempt to disrupt this summit and even attempt to assassinate participants.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Ceasar, do not go to Rome!(sarc.)
Life could be fun under President Cackles Knee Pads Harris.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Regulators advised banks and other financial institutions to avoid cryptocurrencies, a warning that comes after the implosion of digital asset company FTX and deliberations over a possible central bank digital currency in the United States.
A joint statement from the Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currencysaid that the nascent sector is characterized by “significant volatility” and possible fraud, warning executives of scams, legal uncertainties, and contagion between firms rocked by recent tumult in cryptocurrency markets.
OBSERVATION – Crypto has to be killed as an alternative currency so that the WEF approved digital currency and be introduced and take over. The turbulence over the past year and in specific, the FTX scandal most likely reflect WEF insider work to discredit and destabilize crypto in advance of CBDC.
Wuhan virus –
See China - wuhan breakout below.
People who suffered from myocarditis after receiving an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine were found to have persistently higher levels of circulating spike protein compared to those who also received an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine but did not develop myocarditis, according to findings from a new study.
The study, published Jan. 4 in the Journal of the American Heart Association, sought to understand better the immune profiles—also referred to as immunoprofiles—of people who suffered from myocarditis after receiving an mRNA-based vaccine.
The researchers flagged what they called a “notable finding,” which was that “markedly elevated levels of full-length spike protein (33.9±22.4 pg/mL), unbound by antibodies, were detected in the plasma of individuals with postvaccine myocarditis, whereas no free spike was detected in asymptomatic vaccinated control subjects (unpaired t test; P<0.0001).”
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.122.061025
OBSERVATION – More evidence that the jabs are dangerous and should have been vetted more thoroughly.
Economy –
The UN’S Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3 percent from 2021, and the highest since records started in 1990, the agency said on Friday.
The index had already gained 28 percent in 2021 from the previous year as the world economy recovered from the impact of the pandemic.
OBSERVATION – They expect prices to continue to remain high due to significant market disruptions, adverse weather, high fertilizer and fuel costs in addition to growing demand.
Southern California residents, get ready for a severe case of sticker shock as your natural gas bills across the region soar more than double this winter, according to the region’s two chief utility companies.
Southern California Gas Company — a subsidiary of Sempra Energy that serves more than 21.8 million customers in Central and Southern California — along with Long Beach Utilities, the city’s independent gas provider, recently warned customers to prepare for unavoidable increases in their gas bills this month.
“There’s no easy way to put this: January bills are likely to be shockingly high,” SoCalGas said in a Thursday, Dec. 29 announcement. “As a result, our customers can expect to see higher gas bills in the coming weeks.”
Long Beach Utilities put out a similar statement on Wednesday, Jan. 4.
SoCalGas rates are expected to more than double over the cost of last winter. If a customer’s natural gas bill totaled $130 last winter, for example, that household can expect a $315 bill this winter, according to the gas company. And the average Long Beach single-family residential customer should prepare for an increase of $200 or more on their bill, that city’s utility said.
OBSERVATION – Kalifornia has natural gas reserves but refuses to allow them to be developed. This is a scenario that is playing out all across the country. People will be screaming about how high their bills are and how evil the utilities are – but they are having to deal with economic realities while the customer is directing their anger towards the wrong entity.
One other note – the economic ignorance is not just limited to kalifornia. Last month here in my corner of the Redoubt people were crying over how much more their utility bills were. They didn’t have the common sense to read the bill, look at just how much energy (Kwh and therms) they used in comparison to the average temperature for the billing period. Use twice the amount – your bill will double.
Reversing recent declines, the percentage of the population that is either working or actively looking for work increased slightly to 62.3 percent in December, up one-tenth of a point from November, and four basis points higher than the 61.9 percent in December 2021.
In its final report for 2022, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics counted a record 159,244,000 employed Americans in December, an increase of 717,000 from last month’s 158,527,000 (revised number); and the number of Americans counted as not in the labor force dropped below the hundred million level to 99,879,000.
The unemployment rate has remained in the 3.5-3.7 percent range since March.
OBSERVATION – The labor market is one of the factors the Fed uses to see if their prime rate increases are working or not. This report seems to indicate that the rate increases are not working, given that the Fed is anticipating a move towards unemployment in the 5% range. This increases the likelihood of more rate increases in the coming months.
IMHO, the increase in the labor force may well reflect the impact of inflation, drawing many back into the job market by necessity.
Invasion of Illegals –
On Thursday, the president announced he was expanding a “legal immigration” plan including using an existing parole system to allow an additional 360,000 illegal foreign nationals to be released into the United States. Biden announced that part of his plan to expand “safe, orderly, and humane processing” for illegal foreign nationals included expanding a federal parole system to allow an additional 30,000 people a month to remain in the U.S. from Venezuela, Haiti, Cuba and Nicaragua – 360,000 in total for the year.
Biden made the announcement after a record 68,044 Cubans and Nicaraguans and 6,232 Venezuelans were apprehended in November illegally entering the U.S., according to CBP data; and after more than 600,000 foreign nationals from all over the world were apprehended or evaded capture in November and December 2022 combined, and a record 3.3 million were apprehended in fiscal 2022.
The change is already being challenged in court by a lawsuit brought by Florida, arguing the administration’s abuse of it is illegal. Moody argues the administration’s misuse of the parole system is unconstitutional and violates federal law established by Congress. The majority of people being released into the U.S. by the Biden administration don’t have a legal basis under current asylum law, the practice doesn’t comply with mandatory detention laws and is illegal, Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody maintains.
OBSERVATION – So typical of the democrat regime, seeking cracks and loopholes to continue to press their agenda. Biden et al knows this will be tied up in courts for years to come and even a restraining order(s) will be ignored by rephrasing some of the EOs.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A new California gun law allowing private citizens to sue manufacturers and retailers for selling banned firearms went into effect this year.
California’s new regulations give private citizens the ability to sue anyone who imports, distributes, manufactures, or sells assault firearms, homemade weapons, ghost guns, or .50 BMP rifles. The law, Senate Bill (SB) 1327, also restricts the sale of firearms to anyone under 21 years old.
These restrictions are already enforced by California; however, this new law allows citizens to sue violators for at least $10,000.
This is modeled after the Texas Heartbeat Act which allows private citizens to sue anyone involved in providing abortions after a doctor has detected a fetal heartbeat. In that law, citizens can file lawsuits against doctors, clinics, or anyone involved in the abortion.
OBSERVATION – Another angle of attack against Second Amendment rights. Tyrants cannot execute full control of their agenda as long as the citizenry is armed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The first season’s congressional soap opera saw McCarthy finally getting the votes necessary to be elected to the Speakership on the 15th attempt. McCarthy got 216 votes, a bare majority that was lower than the normal 218 votes needed because all six of his remaining GOP opponents relented and voted “present.”
OBSERVATION – This promises to be only the first battle between the conservative caucus and the more moderate (some say drifting left of center) eGOP. Some good concessions were forced out of McCarthy – and done in writing. If this standoff hadn’t been initiated, it would have been business as usual with little difference between the Marxist democrat control and the incoming eGOP.
Cyber Warfare –
Word is just coming out about a Russian hacker group called Cold River who targeted three different nuclear research labs in the United States between the months of August and September of 2022. During the months the attacks were carried out, Russian President Vladimir Putin had been voicing Russia’s willingness to use nuclear weapons in response to threats to its territory.
The three nuclear research labs that were targeted were: Argonne National Laboratory (ANL), Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories (LLNL) according to a Reuters Report citing internet records.
The internet records that Reuters cited showed login pages that had been faked for each laboratory, as well as emails from hackers sent to nuclear scientists at each location attempting to get them to disclose their login passwords.
OBSERVATION - These Russian groups operated with the tacit approval of the Russian govt, much like Wagner Group does.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Contraindicator –
Continues to be the wuhan infection situation. Impact to the civilian population has to be hitting the military equally hard. However, this doesn’t necessarly stop the initiation of a ‘soft blockaide’, but does challenge a stronger action as the national leadership is having to address the wuhan problem – read more below.
Chinese government claims fewer than two dozen people have died nationwide during the massive coronavirus outbreak sweeping the country, but the true number is believed to be in the thousands and could be heading into the millions. Increasing numbers of countries around the world are instituting travel restrictions on individuals from China.
Going along with this are other reports that with crematoriums overwhelmed with the dead, ome families are resorting to amateur cremations in the streets.
OBSERVATION – China holds close its actual numbers, but the death toll is most likely much larger than a couple dozen.
Now, does this pose a threat to the US as the initial breakout of wuhan from China did? Too early to tell. Given a 1 billion population and an estimated 50-70% currently infected, even a small percentage of mortalities adds up to a lot of people. Not enough information at this time to tell if this is the start of a new plandemic that the medical community and govt tyrannists have been clamoring for.
Afghanistan’s ruling Taliban signed their first international agreement with a Chinese petroleum company Thursday to extract and develop oil reserves in the country’s north
OBSERVATION – China is aggressively working to secure oil, gas and coal supplies that can bypass any potential sanctions at a bargan basement price. This is part of their long term, strategic plan to ensure energy supply.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
A temporary unilateral Russian ceasefire ordered by Putin during Orthodox Christmas has not even remotely been held by Russia, as fighting has continued in eastern Ukraine.
Economic Impact – Putin’s recently released plan to update the Russian army in the face of its awful debut in Ukraine is expected to far exceed the nation’s economic capability to accomplish it in the time frame laid out by putin.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No sign of a ‘cease fire’ as scattered artillery and Russian ground attacks continued along the Donbas front. Many didn’t expect Russia to execute the ceasefire anyway, given its track record of saying one thing and doing another.
Only other thing of note was increased Russian shelling along the border north - northeast of Khariv. Activity here has been sporadic over the past couple months.
Fighting around Kreminna has reportedly intensified in forested areas surrounding the city. Both sides working hard to call in and adjust artillery fire, having to rely heavily on drones to adjust fire.
OUTLOOK ——
Need I say it ? No significant changes on the ground are expected in the near future. Incoming packages of modern western armor and tanks are anticipated to have some impacts for Ukraine, but there is a time delay due to training necessary. It is uncertain if the equipment and associated troops will be tactically ready in time for the anticipated start of the potential winter offensive in the next few weeks. It is unlikely that Ukraine will hold off that offensive based on waiting for this equipment to be available, they have done quite well with the Soviet style systems and modern artillery they’ve been provided so far.
Belarus-watch continues, and so far the concensus is that the current rounds of training between Belarus and Russian forces have helped Belarus’ defensive capabilities. However, being able to operate offensively in the medium to high intensity environment that is Ukraine is still far from being obtained.
Russian / Belarus troop movements still seem to be more focused on the southwestern corner of the nation versus the assembly areas necessary for a second push towards Kyiv. Trainloads of equipment continue to be primarily support type vehicles, and limited armor/tanks. Nothing close to what was observed in the build up to the start of war last February.
Belarus -
See Ukraine Outlook above for assessment.
Iran –
Iran executed two more people for participating in protests. In doing so, they are creating more martyrs and refueling the protests.
Iraq -
The Iraqi supreme court has issued an arrest warrant for former U.S. President Donald Trump for the assassination on Iraqi soil of Iran’s Quds Force commander, Qasem Soleimani, Iraqi News reports, citing a Baghdad news agency.
The warrant was issued on Thursday in connection both with the killing of Soleimani and of another Iraqi militia leader, chief of staff of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq–both of whom were killed in a drone strike in January 2020 near the Baghdad airport. That assassination operation led to Iranian strikes on the Aia Al-Assad U.S. base in Iraq.
The arrest warrant charges Trump with premeditated murder. While the warrant is clearly symbolic, a conviction of this nature carries the death penalty.
OBSERVATION – These courts are slanted strongly in favor of Iran, which recently held ceremonies of remembrance for Soleimani.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
See oil deal with China above
Mexico -
The situation is still tense in Culiacan following the capture/arrest of the infamous gang kingpin El Chapo‘s son Ovidio. El Chapo is currently serving life in prison in the US for trafficking hundreds of tons of drugs into the United States over a 25-year period.
Mexican courts have put a temporary halt to his extradition to the US pending his appeal. Violence continues in other cities in the region. Overall, however, it appears that govt forces have the upper hand.
OBSERVATION – I would avoid Mexico at all costs.
Economy –
Former Federal Reserve Chair Alan Greenspan warned Americans that an economic recession is the “most likely outcome,” as the central bank continues to tighten monetary policy to fight inflation. Former New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley reinforced Greenspan’s claims, saying that a U.S. recession is “likely” forthcoming because the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are inducing one.
According to Chief Investment Officer for Wealth and Investment Management Darrell Cronk “And keep in mind, it’s not just interest rate hikes or cuts for that matter. It’s the combination of the money, supply is tightening, the stronger U.S. dollar has put pressure on financial conditions. Bank reserves are running off. So there’s a whole myriad of other elements that are also conspiring to tighten financial conditions simultaneously,”
OBSERVATION - More and more it is coming to when – not if – the recession hits. The Fed has only one tool – a hammer – and as stated by Cronk - there is a “whole myriad of other elements” coming into play.
Invasion of Illegals –
President Joe Biden satisfied long-standing calls from conservatives by deciding to visit the U.S.-Mexico border in El Paso, Texas, over the weekend.
The visit comes alongside a host of new immigration measures designed to stem the record flow of illegal crossings. While border hawks remain skeptical, the move also comes with the risk of alienating Biden’s more progressive supporters.
OBSERVATION – The democrat mayor of El Paso has been working hard to get the thousands of illegals camping out on the city streets removed so as to present a very sanitized picture to biden. Biden’s recent announcements on border control are sounding very similar to Trump’s. problem is it is too little, too late. And ANY kind of border control will throw the progressive Marxists in congress into a tizzy.
Biden announced Wednesday that his administration is expanding a program requiring Venezuelans to apply for asylum through a cell phone app without crossing the border to migrants from Cuba, Nicaragua, and Haiti.
Biden said that there are a number of legal pathways for migrants to come to the United States “under our existing laws.”
Biden said that despite these new requirements, Congress still needs to pass a comprehensive immigration law.
OBSERVATION – it has been far easier for biden to just let them pour across the border than follow the ‘existing law’. Fact is the existing law is a bane to the progressives who want no law at all. The only comprehensive immigration law they will accept is complete and full, open ended amnesty.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is readying the launch of his 2024 reelection campaign, according to The Hill website. The Hill reported that “multiple sources” have told their reporters that “the president is planning to make his intentions to run for a second White House term public in the coming weeks, likely in February, around the State of the Union.”
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
The White House pressed Facebook to censor Fox News host Tucker Carlson for saying “vaccines” “don’t work,” according to a document released by Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry of Louisiana.
Landry along with Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt sued the Biden administration in federal court on May 5, claiming that members of the administration colluded with social media companies to suppress debate on the 2020 presidential election, the COVID-19 pandemic and other issues. The court ordered the Biden administration to turn over communications between officials and the tech companies in July.
OBSERVATION – No way around this – this act is grossly unconstitutional.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Russia’s bombing of regions in eastern Ukraine killed at least two people overnight, local officials said on Sunday, after Moscow ended a self-declared Christmas ceasefire and vowed to push on with combat until it reaches a victory over its neighbor.
NOTE – no one expected Russia to keep its word on this cease fire. It was only for public consumption in Russia.
RUMINT-
Unconfirmed reports that Moscow is preparing to call up an additional 500,000 conscripts in January, following the ‘partial mobilization’ which included 300,000 extra troops in October,
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
It appears a smaller Russian missile attack focusing on the Donbas region occurred overnight. Ukraine also struck targets deep into Russian occupied territories as well.
Solda has been the recent forcus on Russia’s effort to encircle Bakhmut from the north. Russia claims capture but Ukraine continues to hold most of the town. It has taken Russia five months to get this far in offensive, and the hardest fighting is yet before them.
OUTLOOK ——
With the potential for frozen soils coming, I expect to see some increase in fighting as both sides try to gain better positions for defense and offense.
Russia has reportedly been shipping a significant portion of the new conscripts to the Savatoe-Kreminna line. Will have to see if OSINT sources can clarify build up areas better – that will give a better view of potential Russian offensive areas and potential objectives.
Belarus -
Thus, at least 1400-1600 soldiers of the Russian Armed Forces could have been transferred to Vitsebsk, Belarus in the past two days.
OBSERVATION – Continuing to monitor the Russian build-up. Even if Belarus joins in an attack, the numbers just aren’t there for anything. The Russian movement into the country at this time seems to be primarily for training and not meeting the levels observed before the start of hostilities in Feb of last year.
Associated training has been in areas in the center of Belarus as well as the southwestern corner. This southwestern corner has a higher probability of being the invasion source as it could threaten western supplies coming in from Poland and the approaches to Kyiv are heavily defended.
German police detained an Iranian suspected of planning an ‘Islamist-motivated’ attack. No further details available.
Pakistan –
Strong rumors about reports that Pakistan is essentially heading towards an imminent economic disaster unless some help comes from friendly as reportedly, the dollar reserves with the State Bank are now below USD $ 5Bn.
OBSERVATION – Borderline RUMINT except that Pakistan is in serous economic chaos. This is where Saudi Arabia could leverage the situation to purchase some nuke warheads as a counter to Iran.
Very destabilizing when a nuclear armed country enters this realm. A disaster will also generate considerably more social chaos and openings for radical Islamic sects to start controlling areas of the country.
Mexico -
The Sinaloa drug cartel has issued the Mexican government a terrifying ultimatum to release the son of El Chapo within 72 hours - or else suffer utter chaos.
OBSERVATION – Mexico is in the midst of a war against the cartels that heated up last year. Cartel vs cartel violence has also ratcheted up starting last year. In general, it is in a near state of narco-terrorist civil war.
Misc of Note –
Weather watch continues for kalifornia as another storm hits the state. San Fran recorded its largest 10 day rain amounts since 1881 (iirc) Disaster would be if an air mass warm enough to throw substantial rain on top of the 175% of average snow in the sierras.
At least three more atmospheric river storms are set to hit California from this weekend through next week. The FOX Forecast Center warned that it’s becoming increasingly likely that the flooding from the strongest storm will be far more serious than anything experienced so far.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Hype grows for the the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023 taking place January 16-20, 2023 in Davos, Switzerland. I’ve posted their announced agenda in previous posts.
A harbinger of things to come in the new global order, increasing numbers of criminal prosecutions in various countries in Europe for anyone being vocal and opposing the Trans – tyranny. Norway for instance added “gender identity and gender expression” as protected categories under hate speech laws. Recently Christina Ellingsen was accused under these laws and, if found guilty of “transphobia,” could face three years in prison.
OBSERVATION – Europe is in general a lot longer distance down the socialist trail than the US, but we are working hard to catch up. The academic world is totally within the vice grip of the Tranny terrorists and any contrary views grounds for losing their job. Many other fields facing the same. It is only a matter of a short time that opposing LGBT and tranny tyranny will yield criminal penalties here.
Lützerath, in western Germany, is the focal point of the green agenda versus economic realities for the German people. The town is to be destroyed to permit the expansion of a coal mine. With Germany facing massive energy shortfalls, they’ve been forced to continue use of coal. Environmental extremists vow to prevent the expansion claiming it violates the limits of the Paris agreement.
OBSERVATION – one of the environmental protestors claimed that “People are dying now from the climate crisis,”. In that she has it backwards, people are dying from the lack of power and heat, not any pseudo-global warming.
Economy –
During an interview with CBS News on Friday, Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen stated that it “will probably take two years, if not three years to get inflation back down to the Fed’s desired 2% level.”
Gapen said, “I think the numbers tell us that the labor market is still quite hot. The unemployment rate number that you mentioned is the lowest we’ve seen since 1968. So, it’s about a five-decade low. 223,000 jobs added in the month of December. That pace has come down, but that’s a robust number in any normal expansion. So, I think job-seekers right now are probably still meeting with a lot of success and I think labor demand remains exceptionally strong.”
He added, “225,000 jobs or so per month is about twice as much job growth as I think the Fed would like to see.”
OBSERVATION – That would imply 2-3 years of economy damaging high interest rates and unemployment going up to the 5+% level. That kind of drain on the economic resiliency of the country following the devastating wuhan shutdowns could create a myriad of economic difficulties and hardships, including diving into a deep recession or even depression.
Numbers are in and biden’s cancellation of the Keystone pipeline cost the economy about 59,468 jobs, and $9.61 Billion in GDP.
OBSERVATION – Keystone was one of the first rounds fired against the petroleum industry by the biden regime and its desires to kill the industry for replacement by ‘green’ resources.
California’s government is facing an estimated budget deficit of $24 billion this year, a stark reversal from the record-setting surpluses that the state saw in recent years which comes amid ongoing inflation and heightened fears of a looming recession.
California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), which provides state officials with nonpartisan budget forecasts, warned in a report that the state faces a projected $24 billion deficit in 2023-24 mainly because tax revenues are about $41 billion lower than expected.
OBSERVATION – Before we cheer about this, remember that the consequences will ripple outwards across the nation in one way or another. IIRC just last year kalifornia was boasting of a $96 billion SURPLUS.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden at a show visit in El Paso.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden will make his first official visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in his more than 50 years in Washington. El Paso had to literally use bulldozers in some places to ‘sanitize’ areas of biden’s visit.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A poll was conducted by SurveyUSA in eight states, that included Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Hawaii. Support for exiting the union polled highest in Texas, with regular voters showing 66% support and voters who vote only in presidential elections showing 63%. This sentiment is shared in varying degrees in other Red States. On the other end of the spectrum, blue states are showing more of an inclination to separate as well. This trend shows no sign of stopping as the partisan divide grows larger and more volatile.
OBSERVATION - Momentum grows for a split of some kind. Some desire an amicable divorce, but reality is such a split will result in power loss to the Marxist democrats in DC as well as in blue states/regions. They may not be so willing to release power.
IN RELATED – last weeks 3-day vote-a-thon for Speaker has by some been related to the last marathon Speaker fight which preceeded the start of the Civil War. Some of the comparisons are not too valid other than the apparent fact that the partisan divide is growing between red and blue and a split of some kind is on the horizion.
The J6 committee “accidentally “ released the SSNs and other personal data on about 2000 individuals who were Trump supporters.
OBSERVATION – “Accidental” releases of personal information by leftists in govt is an ongoing and increasing issue. Very simple to get info out to target individuals under the guise of an ‘accident’, knowing full well that there will be no consequences for the action. Those who posted the information knew full well that it was in violation of the Privacy Act of 1974,
Kalifornia did a similar ‘accidental’ release of CCW permit holders a couple years ago.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter keeps releasing files, now up to 14 IIRC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
With the speakership settled, now the interparty fighting and maneuvering begins. Many house republicans are looking for pay back on democrats for their baseless investigations over the past years.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Indicators –
- For the second time in less than a month, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is holding large-scale exercises in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The military exercise near Taiwan will be on the eve of visits by German and Lithuanian lawmakers to the self-governed island. The drill has been described as countering “separatist forces.”
The training exercise was announced on Sunday by Colonel Shi Yi, the spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He said it would involve sea and airspace maneuvers around Taiwan, focusing on land strikes and amphibious assault action.
The exercise was “designed to test the joint combat capabilities of the troops and resolutely counteract the provocative actions of external forces and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists,”a statement said.
OBSERVATION – The Ukraine example had tens of thousands of Russian troops deploy to the borders of Ukraine under the cover of “exercises”. China will likely employ a similar tactic, bringing troops in and just leaving them there after the exercise is ended - growing the force bit by bit. Ramping up of military exercises and associated force build up all point to potential action by China.
- China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone nearly doubled in 2022, with a surge in fighter jet and bomber sorties as Beijing intensified threats towards the island democracy.
China sent 1,727 planes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in 2022, according to an AFP database based on daily updates released by Taipei’s defence ministry.
That compares with around 960 incursions in 2021 and 380 in 2020.
Fighter jet sorties more than doubled from 538 in 2021 to 1,241 while incursions by bombers, including the nuclear-capable H6, went from 60 to 101.
OBSERVATION – This increase in air activity – in addition to increasing naval incursions show that China is working out how to manage large numbers of sorties and naval missions that will be necessary in the event of an invasion. Further, the necessity of air force and navy coordination for successful operations.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a week-long visit to Europe today. The visit, reportedly intended to strengthen military ties between Japan and the E.U., will conclude Friday with a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. Kishida is scheduled to visit the leaders of France, Italy, Britain, and Canada.
OBSERVATION – Continuing effort by Japan to ready itself for an expected move on Taiwan that may also include Chinese attempts to seize Japan’s nearby southern islands.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
According to the Daily Mail, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine believes that Vladimir Putin “is terminally ill with cancer”…
Vladimir Putin is terminally ill with cancer and will die very soon, Ukraine’s military intelligence head has claimed.
Kyrylo Budanov, without providing evidence, said he knows the Russian despot’s death is imminent due to an ongoing illness from cancer.
When asked how soon Putin might die, Budanov stated that he thinks that it will come “very fast”…
Asked when he thinks Putin’s death will come, Budanov said that he thought it would be very soon.
‘I think very fast. I hope.’
Speculation about Putin’s health has been ongoing for several years. The 70-year-old Russian leader has been rumoured to be suffering from cancer, Parkinson’s Disease and numerous other ailments.
OBSERVATION – This rumor has been around for a while, but has increased since the start of the war. Putin’s public appearances have done little to calm the rumors, clearly showing signs of physical weakness and medical related problems. The concern is who will replace him if he dies during this war? Kremlin observers note that the likely candidates are very much more warmongering than putin has been.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was set on fire in Bratsk, Russia.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the battlefield, Russia continues attacks to capture Bahkmut and lands west – northwest of Donetsk. Russian artillery focused on the Svatove – Donetsk line in eastern Ukraine, widely scattered and sporadic elsewhere.
Ukraine launched another round of HIMARS strikes on Russian troop concentrations, command posts and logistical sites in the occupied territories.
OUTLOOK ——
Same old, same old. Russia continues to press attacks against Bahkmut and near Donetsk. Weather is still delaying any winter offensives by either side, although the trend seems to be for more subfreezing temperatures.
Russia is about due for another round of missile/drone attacks on Ukraine, probably within the next few days.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced new drill with Russian troops, aviation and air defense at all airfields and firing ranges across Belarus starting January 16th until February 1st.
Other OSINT observers/analysts noting increased movement of Russian soldiers and equipment into the region. The exercise areas are concentrated in the center and southwest of the country. No reportable formation of new maneuver units and the amount of armor and equipment into Belarus is far less than Belarus has contributed to Russia over the past 10 months.
Most dangerous course of action at this time is Russia taking remaining Belarus equipment for an attack southward. This may not be acceptable to the Belarus military nor narrative that they are facing invasion by NATO elements – primarily Poland.
Pakistan –
Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, a key link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, was shut down by authorities as part of a crackdown after weeks of protests in the city.
The shutdown comes as Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad faced food riots over the weekend. Pakistan’s finance minister is currently meeting with International Monetary Fund officials in Geneva in an attempt to get $1.1 billion in relief funds released to the country. Currently, Pakistan only has enough foreign exchange reserves to cover one month of imports.
OBSERVATION – Continued economic meltdown threatens the stability of this nuclear power and increases potential for nuclear systems to be compromised.
Iran –
Tehran, Iran Locals in the capital’s Sattarkhand district are continuing the nationwide protests against the government on the 115th night of the uprising. Other protests reported in several other locations.
Iran is also making preparations to execute more protestors.
Central / South America General-
Supporters of Bolsonaro broke through barriers & entered the Brazilian congress in Brasilia. Luiz Lula da Silva, a left-wing politician who was previously imprisoned for corruption, was inaugurated last week after narrowly defeating Bolsonaro.
Military police were observed accompanying the Bolsonarista insurrection on its way to the Three Powers Plaza in Brasilia. Some policemen of Rio de Janeiro refuse to disperse Bolsonaro supporters and clearly express their support for the protesters.
The protests were broken up by the end of the day with hundreds arrested. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva says perpetrators will be found and punished after supporters of Brazilian far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress.
Trump is now being blamed for the riots in Brazil over the weekend.
OBSERVATION – This appears to be the start of a cyclical action-reaction- re-reaction. Crackdown on Bolsonaro supporters will create pushback by supporters (and more protests) instigating another crackdown. Lather, rinse, repeat.
What should be of great concern for da Silva is that in many locations the police marched in support – this sets up a potential civil war conflict scenario as pro-Bolsonario regions set up their own shadow govt and the govt may try to crack down – resulting in a shooting battle.
So far the military has been on the sidelines, not ready to step in on one side or the other.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Hype grows for the the World Economic Forum’s Annual Meeting 2023 taking place January 16-20, 2023 in Davos, Switzerland. I’ve posted their announced agenda in previous posts.
A harbinger of things to come in the new global order, increasing numbers of criminal prosecutions in various countries in Europe for anyone being vocal and opposing the Trans – tyranny. Norway for instance added “gender identity and gender expression” as protected categories under hate speech laws. Recently Christina Ellingsen was accused under these laws and, if found guilty of “transphobia,” could face three years in prison.
OBSERVATION – Europe is in general a lot longer distance down the socialist trail than the US, but we are working hard to catch up. The academic world is totally within the vice grip of the Tranny terrorists and any contrary views grounds for losing their job. Many other fields facing the same. It is only a matter of a short time that opposing LGBT and tranny tyranny will yield criminal penalties here.
Lützerath, in western Germany, is the focal point of the green agenda versus economic realities for the German people. The town is to be destroyed to permit the expansion of a coal mine. With Germany facing massive energy shortfalls, they’ve been forced to continue use of coal. Environmental extremists vow to prevent the expansion claiming it violates the limits of the Paris agreement.
OBSERVATION – one of the environmental protestors claimed that “People are dying now from the climate crisis,”. In that she has it backwards, people are dying from the lack of power and heat, not any pseudo-global warming.
Economy –
During an interview with CBS News on Friday, Bank of America Chief Economist Michael Gapen stated that it “will probably take two years, if not three years to get inflation back down to the Fed’s desired 2% level.”
Gapen said, “I think the numbers tell us that the labor market is still quite hot. The unemployment rate number that you mentioned is the lowest we’ve seen since 1968. So, it’s about a five-decade low. 223,000 jobs added in the month of December. That pace has come down, but that’s a robust number in any normal expansion. So, I think job-seekers right now are probably still meeting with a lot of success and I think labor demand remains exceptionally strong.”
He added, “225,000 jobs or so per month is about twice as much job growth as I think the Fed would like to see.”
OBSERVATION – That would imply 2-3 years of economy damaging high interest rates and unemployment going up to the 5+% level. That kind of drain on the economic resiliency of the country following the devastating wuhan shutdowns could create a myriad of economic difficulties and hardships, including diving into a deep recession or even depression.
Numbers are in and biden’s cancellation of the Keystone pipeline cost the economy about 59,468 jobs, and $9.61 Billion in GDP.
OBSERVATION – Keystone was one of the first rounds fired against the petroleum industry by the biden regime and its desires to kill the industry for replacement by ‘green’ resources.
California’s government is facing an estimated budget deficit of $24 billion this year, a stark reversal from the record-setting surpluses that the state saw in recent years which comes amid ongoing inflation and heightened fears of a looming recession.
California’s Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO), which provides state officials with nonpartisan budget forecasts, warned in a report that the state faces a projected $24 billion deficit in 2023-24 mainly because tax revenues are about $41 billion lower than expected.
OBSERVATION – Before we cheer about this, remember that the consequences will ripple outwards across the nation in one way or another. IIRC just last year kalifornia was boasting of a $96 billion SURPLUS.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden at a show visit in El Paso.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden will make his first official visit to the U.S.-Mexico border in his more than 50 years in Washington. El Paso had to literally use bulldozers in some places to ‘sanitize’ areas of biden’s visit.
CW2/Domestic violence –
A poll was conducted by SurveyUSA in eight states, that included Texas, Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, South Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, and Hawaii. Support for exiting the union polled highest in Texas, with regular voters showing 66% support and voters who vote only in presidential elections showing 63%. This sentiment is shared in varying degrees in other Red States. On the other end of the spectrum, blue states are showing more of an inclination to separate as well. This trend shows no sign of stopping as the partisan divide grows larger and more volatile.
OBSERVATION - Momentum grows for a split of some kind. Some desire an amicable divorce, but reality is such a split will result in power loss to the Marxist democrats in DC as well as in blue states/regions. They may not be so willing to release power.
IN RELATED – last weeks 3-day vote-a-thon for Speaker has by some been related to the last marathon Speaker fight which preceeded the start of the Civil War. Some of the comparisons are not too valid other than the apparent fact that the partisan divide is growing between red and blue and a split of some kind is on the horizion.
The J6 committee “accidentally “ released the SSNs and other personal data on about 2000 individuals who were Trump supporters.
OBSERVATION – “Accidental” releases of personal information by leftists in govt is an ongoing and increasing issue. Very simple to get info out to target individuals under the guise of an ‘accident’, knowing full well that there will be no consequences for the action. Those who posted the information knew full well that it was in violation of the Privacy Act of 1974,
Kalifornia did a similar ‘accidental’ release of CCW permit holders a couple years ago.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter keeps releasing files, now up to 14 IIRC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
With the speakership settled, now the interparty fighting and maneuvering begins. Many house republicans are looking for pay back on democrats for their baseless investigations over the past years.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
Indicators –
- For the second time in less than a month, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is holding large-scale exercises in the waters and airspace surrounding Taiwan. The military exercise near Taiwan will be on the eve of visits by German and Lithuanian lawmakers to the self-governed island. The drill has been described as countering “separatist forces.”
The training exercise was announced on Sunday by Colonel Shi Yi, the spokesman for the Eastern Theater Command of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). He said it would involve sea and airspace maneuvers around Taiwan, focusing on land strikes and amphibious assault action.
The exercise was “designed to test the joint combat capabilities of the troops and resolutely counteract the provocative actions of external forces and ‘Taiwan independence’ separatists,”a statement said.
OBSERVATION – The Ukraine example had tens of thousands of Russian troops deploy to the borders of Ukraine under the cover of “exercises”. China will likely employ a similar tactic, bringing troops in and just leaving them there after the exercise is ended - growing the force bit by bit. Ramping up of military exercises and associated force build up all point to potential action by China.
- China’s warplane incursions into Taiwan’s air defence zone nearly doubled in 2022, with a surge in fighter jet and bomber sorties as Beijing intensified threats towards the island democracy.
China sent 1,727 planes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in 2022, according to an AFP database based on daily updates released by Taipei’s defence ministry.
That compares with around 960 incursions in 2021 and 380 in 2020.
Fighter jet sorties more than doubled from 538 in 2021 to 1,241 while incursions by bombers, including the nuclear-capable H6, went from 60 to 101.
OBSERVATION – This increase in air activity – in addition to increasing naval incursions show that China is working out how to manage large numbers of sorties and naval missions that will be necessary in the event of an invasion. Further, the necessity of air force and navy coordination for successful operations.
Japan –
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida began a week-long visit to Europe today. The visit, reportedly intended to strengthen military ties between Japan and the E.U., will conclude Friday with a summit with U.S. President Joe Biden. Kishida is scheduled to visit the leaders of France, Italy, Britain, and Canada.
OBSERVATION – Continuing effort by Japan to ready itself for an expected move on Taiwan that may also include Chinese attempts to seize Japan’s nearby southern islands.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
RUMINT-
According to the Daily Mail, the head of military intelligence in Ukraine believes that Vladimir Putin “is terminally ill with cancer”…
Vladimir Putin is terminally ill with cancer and will die very soon, Ukraine’s military intelligence head has claimed.
Kyrylo Budanov, without providing evidence, said he knows the Russian despot’s death is imminent due to an ongoing illness from cancer.
When asked how soon Putin might die, Budanov stated that he thinks that it will come “very fast”…
Asked when he thinks Putin’s death will come, Budanov said that he thought it would be very soon.
‘I think very fast. I hope.’
Speculation about Putin’s health has been ongoing for several years. The 70-year-old Russian leader has been rumoured to be suffering from cancer, Parkinson’s Disease and numerous other ailments.
OBSERVATION – This rumor has been around for a while, but has increased since the start of the war. Putin’s public appearances have done little to calm the rumors, clearly showing signs of physical weakness and medical related problems. The concern is who will replace him if he dies during this war? Kremlin observers note that the likely candidates are very much more warmongering than putin has been.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
- Military enlistment office was set on fire in Bratsk, Russia.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant changes on the battlefield, Russia continues attacks to capture Bahkmut and lands west – northwest of Donetsk. Russian artillery focused on the Svatove – Donetsk line in eastern Ukraine, widely scattered and sporadic elsewhere.
Ukraine launched another round of HIMARS strikes on Russian troop concentrations, command posts and logistical sites in the occupied territories.
OUTLOOK ——
Same old, same old. Russia continues to press attacks against Bahkmut and near Donetsk. Weather is still delaying any winter offensives by either side, although the trend seems to be for more subfreezing temperatures.
Russia is about due for another round of missile/drone attacks on Ukraine, probably within the next few days.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Belarus -
Ministry of Defense of Belarus announced new drill with Russian troops, aviation and air defense at all airfields and firing ranges across Belarus starting January 16th until February 1st.
Other OSINT observers/analysts noting increased movement of Russian soldiers and equipment into the region. The exercise areas are concentrated in the center and southwest of the country. No reportable formation of new maneuver units and the amount of armor and equipment into Belarus is far less than Belarus has contributed to Russia over the past 10 months.
Most dangerous course of action at this time is Russia taking remaining Belarus equipment for an attack southward. This may not be acceptable to the Belarus military nor narrative that they are facing invasion by NATO elements – primarily Poland.
Pakistan –
Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, a key link in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, was shut down by authorities as part of a crackdown after weeks of protests in the city.
The shutdown comes as Pakistan’s capital of Islamabad faced food riots over the weekend. Pakistan’s finance minister is currently meeting with International Monetary Fund officials in Geneva in an attempt to get $1.1 billion in relief funds released to the country. Currently, Pakistan only has enough foreign exchange reserves to cover one month of imports.
OBSERVATION – Continued economic meltdown threatens the stability of this nuclear power and increases potential for nuclear systems to be compromised.
Iran –
Tehran, Iran Locals in the capital’s Sattarkhand district are continuing the nationwide protests against the government on the 115th night of the uprising. Other protests reported in several other locations.
Iran is also making preparations to execute more protestors.
Central / South America General-
Supporters of Bolsonaro broke through barriers & entered the Brazilian congress in Brasilia. Luiz Lula da Silva, a left-wing politician who was previously imprisoned for corruption, was inaugurated last week after narrowly defeating Bolsonaro.
Military police were observed accompanying the Bolsonarista insurrection on its way to the Three Powers Plaza in Brasilia. Some policemen of Rio de Janeiro refuse to disperse Bolsonaro supporters and clearly express their support for the protesters.
The protests were broken up by the end of the day with hundreds arrested. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva says perpetrators will be found and punished after supporters of Brazilian far-right ex-President Jair Bolsonaro stormed Congress.
Trump is now being blamed for the riots in Brazil over the weekend.
OBSERVATION – This appears to be the start of a cyclical action-reaction- re-reaction. Crackdown on Bolsonaro supporters will create pushback by supporters (and more protests) instigating another crackdown. Lather, rinse, repeat.
What should be of great concern for da Silva is that in many locations the police marched in support – this sets up a potential civil war conflict scenario as pro-Bolsonario regions set up their own shadow govt and the govt may try to crack down – resulting in a shooting battle.
So far the military has been on the sidelines, not ready to step in on one side or the other.
p
That litany of some of those strategic moves and news coincides exactly with “Armstrong Economics” own 30,000 feet view of Real.
Armstrong posts are blacklisted in these here parts. (A “blackpiller” and stuff.)
Maybe you’re able to get out unscathed.😄
Sometimes a blind squirrel finds a nut.
But My interweb feeds do not include him or reposts.
The massive releases from the Twitter files clearly show the depth of corruption and desire to control narrative for power’s sake is disgusting and shows just how deep the swamp is. It suggests that conventional means of cleaning the swamp are unlikely to succeed and that a CW2 scenario is building in the upcoming years.
Globalism / Great Reset –
See Cancel Culture for outworking of the WEF’s stated goal to control what information is posted on social media and the necessary censoring of ‘misinformation’ these globalists believe is necessary. I’ve seen some consider the WEF as being a paper tiger as a non-governmental authority – yet governments all over the world are implementing its goals and plans.
The Biden administration’s Consumer Product Safety Commission is considering a nationwide ban on gas-burning stoves following a new study that claimed the appliances emit harmful pollution that has been linked to asthma in children, Bloomberg reported.
According to the EPA and the World Health Organization, gas-burning stoves emit unsafe levels of nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, and particulate matter, which are reported to be linked to respiratory illness, cardiovascular issues, cancer, and other conditions.
A December report from the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health claimed that over 12% “of current childhood asthma nationwide is attributed to gas stove use, which is similar to the childhood asthma burden attributed to secondhand smoke exposure.”
OBSERVATION – Note how quickly the regimen has jumped on this ‘report’ in order to justify its elimination of natural gas cooking stoves. Of course the WHO and EPA would be down on it as well. The goal of the globalists is to remove all natural gas appliances in the near future – as kalifornia is in the process of implementing. They don’t have enough electricity to recharge their EV’s, yet demand you rely on electricity alone for cooking and heating/cooling.
Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He will reportedly travel to Davos, Switzerland next week for the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting. This is the first time in two years that China has sent a delegate to the Davos event. Some suspect that Liu will use a lot of the time making economic / trade connections with the delegates.
Wuhan virus –
See China for latest outbreak.
Economy –
SUMMARY – More and more indicators of not only a recession, but a deep and protracted one at that.
Household spending growth expectations over the next 12 months fell by a full percentage point, to 5.9 percent, in December 2022, according to the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. That’s the lowest level for the reading since January 2022, when the year-ahead spending growth expectations came in at 5.5 percent. Consumer spending is a key driver of the U.S. economy, accounting for about two-thirds of gross domestic product (GDP).
The drop in spending expectations dovetails with a recent downgrade in GDP forecasts from the Federal Reserve. The Fed’s most recent summary of economic projections predicts U.S. GDP will grow by just 0.5 percent in 2023. That’s down sharply from September 2022 projections, which called for a 1.2 percent pace.
OBSERVATION – This latest projection essentially shows zero GDP growth. This is razor thin from falling into recession.
IN RELATED -
The number of job openings in the United States—a measure of labor market tightness—came in far higher than analysts expected, fueling concerns of more inflation and that the Fed will have to double down on aggressive rate hikes.
Job openings came in at 10.5 million as of the last day of November 2022, according to the latest Department of Labor monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS).
Market forecasts had expected a more modest 10 million vacancies.
At 10.5 million, the number of open jobs far exceeds the 6 million people that are unemployed in the United States. This means that there are roughly 1.75 available jobs per unemployed person.
OBSERVATION – Attacking employment will further reduce Household spending growth even further – thereby dropping the GDP into negative ground – if we follow the Fed’s logic as listed above.
MORE RELATED – In September 2022, Powell said he saw the “need to have softer labor market conditions,” while acknowledging that pushing interest rates higher would likely mean higher rates of joblessness.
“We need to complete this task,” he said at the time, noting that it won’t be “painless.”
The Fed expects to have to boost interest rates above 5 percent and keep them there for some time, while forecasting that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.6 percent by the end of 2023.
OBSERVATION – That is easily a doubling of the unemployment rate combined with extended period of high interest rates that will stifle businesses – especially small businesses without the reserves necessary to weather out a recession.
MORE FED TALK - (Bloomberg) — Two Federal Reserve officials said Monday that the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates above 5% before pausing and holding for some time. “We are just going to have to hold our resolve,” Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Fed, told the Atlanta Rotary Club. He said the Fed was committed to tackling high inflation and this warrants raising interest rates into a 5% to 5.25% range to squeeze excess demand out of the economy.
OBSERVATION – More tea leaf reading on just what the fed will do next. Economists guesstimate that a 50 basis point increase is in the offing given the labor market and the resistantly high inflation rates.
The governors of seven states in the midwest say that a proposed Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule will cause spikes in gas prices. The EPA currently plans to stop air pollution waivers for E10 gasoline, which contains up to 10% ethanol. According to refiners and pipeline operators, a resulting change in the market from E10 to E15 would threaten short-term fuel supplies and spike prices.
OBSERVATION – Gasoline/diesel are the life blood of the economy and prices ripple throughout. Already we are looking at forecasted gasoline prices in early summer exceeding $4/gallon. Playing around with the ethanol additive will only make matters worse.
Invasion of Illegals –
Biden visited a “migrant services center” in El Paso that provides transportation and gifts to migrants that cross the US-Mexico border illegally this week.
During the tour, Biden asked workers at the center, “If I could wave the wand, what should I do?”
OBSERVATION – biden saw a sanitized El Paso with all the illegal street camps removed.
Biden / Harris watch –
A batch of records from President Biden’s time as Vice President, including a “small number of documents with classified markings,” were discovered at the Penn Biden Center by the president’s personal attorneys on Nov. 2, according to Richard Sauber, special counsel to the White House.
The attorneys found the documents in a locked closet while preparing to vacate office space at the center, which the president used from mid-2017 until he began the 2020 campaign. The National Archives were notified of the finding and took possession of the documents on Nov. 3, 2022, Sauber said.
OBSERVATION – I agree with many commentators – when will the FBI raids occur?
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Alex Berenson dropped records from the Twitter Files on Monday, stating that a board member for Pfizer pressured Twitter to suppress and censor any posts questioning the efficacy of the company’s mRNA vaccine.
On August 27, 2021, Pfizer Board Member Dr. Scott Gottlieb emailed Todd O’Boyle, a Senior Manager of Public Policy at Twitter’s Washington, DC location, according to LinkedIn, and also Twitter’s point of contact with the White House, Berenson reported.
The email subject line contained a tweet from Dr. Brett Giroir, who had briefly served under Gottlieb in the Food and Drug Administration.
That tweet read: “It’s now clear that [Covid-19] natural immunity is superior to [vaccine] immunity, by ALOT. There’s no scientific justification for [vax proof] if a person had prior infection.”
In response to the tweet, Gottlieb told O’Boyle, “This is the kind of stuff that’s corrosive. Here he draws a sweeping conclusion off of a single retrospective study in Israel that hasn’t been peer-reviewed. But this tweet will end up going viral and driving news coverage.”
While a Strategic Response analyst found that the tweet didn’t violate Twitter’s rules on misinformation, the tweet was still flagged as “misleading.”
OBSERVATION – More and more on how the leftists used censorship to stifle necessary public debate and discussion. While twitter was one of the main supporters of such suppression, no doubt that similar mechanisms were in place and in use on other social media platforms such as fakebook, etc.
MORE RELATED - A recently published email has provided more evidence of President Joe Biden’s administration asking tech platforms to censor content that challenges the federal government’s Covid messaging.
The email shows the Biden White House’s Digital Director for the COVID-19 Response Team, Clarke Humphrey, requesting that Twitter remove a tweet from environmental health lawyer and author Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
“Wanted to flag the below tweet and am wondering if we can get moving on the process for having it removed ASAP,” Humphrey wrote to Twitter in the January 2021 email. “And then if we can keep an eye out for tweets that fall in this same ~genre that would be great.”
OBSERVATION – Govt has no right to interfere in such a manner.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The House has passed a bill clawing back $80 million that was to be used to expand the Internal Revenue Service through the hiring of some 87,000 new agents.
OBSERVATION – Nice, but most likely DOA in the Senate.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
A man is facing terrorism charges after he rammed his car through the gate of the Mega Solar Array facility in Las Vegas, Nevada, and set his vehicle on fire damaging the facility. According to an employee, the fire caused significant damage and it could take up to two years to receive replacement parts. The police said the suspect told them he set the fire at the facility “for the future.”
OBSERVATION – The police are labeling this as ‘terrorism’ but so far this individual appears to have mental issues.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Nearly 90% of people in China’s third most populous province have now been infected with COVID-19, a top official said Monday, as the country battles an unprecedented surge in cases. Kan Quancheng, director of the health commission for central Henan province, told a press conference that “as of January 6, 2023, the province’s COVID infection rate is 89.0%.” With a population of 99.4 million, the figures suggest about 88.5 million people in Henan may now have been infected.
OBSERVATION – Reportedly severely impacting Chinese industry and export. While they still talk about deaths, no evidence that this apparent strain doing the infecting is any more lethal than the original virus.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces are close to capturing the salt mining town of Soledar on January 8 & 9. Ukrainian defense officials said that while Russian forces don’t fully control Soledar, the situation there is extremely difficult & Wagner personnel are advancing in certain areas. Heaviest fighting seems to be around the enterances to a network of salt tunnels that are beneath much of the area. The Russian attacks in the area have been part of Wagner Groups efforts to encircle Bahkmut from the north. Assessment from analysts is that if the town falls, it is unlikely that Bahkmut will soon fall as Ukraine has extensive defenses in depth. It is also not a ‘break out’ of Russian forces, as the battle as been primarily fought by leg infantry absent significant armor.
Elsewhere along the eastern front, continued attacks out of Donetsk towards the west. There are also reports of major explosions in Russian occupied Kherson and Crimea Oblasts.
OUTLOOK ——
The battle for Soledar looks like it is trending for Russia as a significant amount of support is being given Wagner group (with heavy casualities) to seize the rubble that was the town. Biggest question mark are the salt mine tunnels which reportedly are miles long and rumored to contain cold war era military equipment. The fact that it has taken even Wagner months and months to get this far calls into question any Russian offensive into Donbas. Ukraine has an extensive defense in depth.
Wagner Group, OTOH, is using this “success” in its power plays against the MoD and in getting more resources diverted to its cause.
Iran –
The activist daughter of former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjanihas been sentenced to five years in prison, her lawyer said on Tuesday. The lawyer did not give detail of the charges against Faezeh Hashemi. But Tehran’s public prosecutor indicted Hashemi last year on charges of “propaganda against the system,” according to the semi-official ISNA news agency.
State media in September reported she had been arrested for “inciting riots” in Tehran during protests triggered by the death of a young Kurdish woman in police custody.
OBSERVATION – Protests continue, though at lower numbers. The regime is pushing hard on punishing protestors and even one’s connection to the regime are not enough to protect some of them.
Biden's disgusting... Is this the center that hands out the free phones so cartel thugs can keep track of their 'property'?
One of many phone handouts centers
Globalism / Great Reset –
Spouting more of the dystopian future envisioned by the WEF, according to Klaus Schwab’s lead advisor, Noah Yuval Harari, Human beings will need to “relearn how to see and walk”, and humanity need to get ready for a future that will be lived in virtual reality, divorced from the “physical and biological” world.
“Maybe the most important quality to survive and flourish in 21st century is to have mental flexibility — not just to keep learning and changing again and again — [but] also to keep letting go.
Part of what makes it difficult to learn new things [is] that we hold on. … I’ll give an example of how deep it goes: it’s not just what you learned in college or what you learned in kindergarten; it’s even what you learned as a baby, as a toddler, like learning how to see, or learning how to walk.
But what does it mean that I have to relearn how to see and walk? As virtual reality improves — and with all the talk of the metaverse and so forth, which we will discuss later on — increasingly, it’s likely that [there] will be many more activities shifting from the physical biological world that we know into a new reality — a virtual reality — which has different physical and biological laws.”
OBSERVATION – This guy is pure evil and is outlining a Matrix-esque future.
WEF forum President Borge Brende, notes this years Davo conference will host a “record participation” of 52 heads of state and government, more than half of them from Europe, as well as some recently elected leaders including President Yoon Suk Yeol of South Korea, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. of the Philippines. Nearly 300 government ministers were expected to take part.
1,500 private jets are also expected to descend on the conference site as well.
OBSERVATION – Next week we should see the agenda of the globalists for the coming year. No doubt with bold goals and ever deepening reach of power, facilitated by these heads of state and mega-corporations.
More on the fight against fossil fuels and the natural gas stove kerfuffle. Gas stoves, which are used in about 40% of American homes and are loved for their easy and speedy adjustability, may be banned by the Biden administration over concerns about their production of indoor pollutants. “This is a hidden hazard,” U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) commissioner Richard Trumka Jr told Bloomberg. “Any option is on the table,” said the son of the late AFL-CIO president. “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.”
OBSERVATION - “Products that can’t be made safe can be banned.” Can easily be applied to just about anything made now a days.
RELATED – Now the push back is coming. A Biden-appointed commissioner at the federal Consumer Product Safety Commission tried to turn down the temperature after a report that the agency was considering a national ban on gas stoves because they emit harmful pollutants.
Trumka now states - “To be clear, CPSC isn’t coming for anyone’s gas stoves,” he added. “Regulations apply to new products. For Americans who CHOOSE to switch from gas to electric, there is support available – Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act which includes a $840 rebate.”
Rep. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.).was unconvinced -
“As I said yesterday, unelected bureaucrats should not have the type of power to even consider such an action,” he tweeted Tuesday, linking to a Post story about the mooted ban. “It is time to rein in the Biden administration and their continual desire to control American’s lives and decisions.”
“Over 40 million American households use gas stoves,” Palmer wrote. “This type of power should never have been given to unelected bureaucrats and it is time for it to end.”
MORE RELATED - New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul, during her state of the state address Monday, announced plans to ban gas heating on the construction of new buildings over the next several years.
OBSERVATION – It is all about power, and nothing more.
BTW – The elimination of gas stoves is based on a single study by the American Chemical Society and New York University Law School’s Institute for Policy Integrity that reportedly claimed it found gas stoves emit pollutants like nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide and fine matter at levels considered unsafe by the Environmental Protection Agency and World Health Organization.
NOW IF ONLY THEY STOP THE WUHAN JABS FOR A SIMILAR REASON – THE DOZENS OF STUDIES THAT SHOW THEM NOT ONLY INEFFECTIVE BUT DEADLY. (RANT – off)
From WUWT, a telling analysis of this “study” and the lack of associated science
Here is a quick summary of the some of study’s principle flaws, in no particular order:
• It’s not actual research on children. It is a meta-analysis of previously published (and ignored) studies — a study of otherwise unpersuasive studies. The authors did a literature search for previous epidemiologic studies on gas stoves and asthma in kids and then just mixed those results together in an effort to contrive statistical significance. This is a bogus technique for a number of reasons including publications bias in the component studies — i.e., studies with null results aren’t published.
• The study results, including the component studies, are weak statistical associations — i.e., noise range correlations. The study results, likely including the component studies, are not statistically significant either.
• Asthma is an allergic disease. There are no allergens in natural gas. So the study has no biological plausibility. No one knows what causes asthma in children and so competing causes could not be ruled out.
• The claim that gas stoves are responsible for 12% of childhood asthma – an epidemiologic concept called “attributable risk” – is entirely bogus because epidemiological studies can only be used to associated exposures with disease. They cannot be used to determine risk of disease because (1) the underlying data is not representative of the population; and (2) epidemiologic studies cannot be used by themselves to determine cause-and-effect relationships.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2023/01/10/no-new-study-does-not-link-gas-stoves-with-asthma-in-children/
Economy –
Some of the world’s largest asset managers and advisors such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and economist Mohamed El-Erian are warning that markets are again underestimating inflation. While consensus is for Thursday’s U.S. CPI report to show a fall in headline inflation to 6.5% in December, all three warn it won’t signal the end of the inflation problem. Allianz Advisor Mohamed El-Erian warns, “Investors should be wary of repeating last year’s ‘transitory inflation’ mistake.” He added, “As important as this moderation is, it won’t signal the passing of the inflation problem. For that, both core and the mix of price rises need to point to a lot less inflation stickiness.” (FO)
OBSERVATION – As we continue into 2023 the threat of recession continues to climb. Whats interesting is WEF invested BlackRock is on the wagon for a recession.
Invasion of Illegals –
Texas Republican Rep. Pat Fallon has filed impeachment articles against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, delivering on a promise he made last week before the 118th Congress was officially sworn in.
The articles of impeachment against Mayorkas for “high crimes and misdemeanors,” known as House Resolution 8, were introduced by Fallon in the House on Monday and have been referred to the House Judiciary Committee.
OBSERVATION – This was expected and will likely meet its ultimate end in his impeachment. Senate will vote party line to preserve him, provided he doesn’t resign first. His resignation will not solve anything, since any replacement (initially temporary) will be someone willing to continue the open border / pseudo enforcement policies of the last couple years. It will put biden into an uncomfortable spot due to the increased news coverage the networks would likely be forced to do and his efforts to rally voters to his cause.
Biden / Harris watch –
Joe Biden was caught on camera making yet another blunder this weekend when he appeared to mistake a member of the Salvation Army for a secret service agent.
After speaking to Border Patrol officers and taking a walk along the wall separating the two countries the President was led to a migrants center and was introduced to a member of the Salvation Army wearing a uniform.
Biden stepped towards the aid worker - who was also wearing a Salvation Army badge, name tag and standing in front of a Salvation Army banner - shook his hand and whispered: ‘I spent some time with the Secret Service in Poland and Ukraine.’
CW2/Domestic violence –
On the fringe of CW2 is the continued illegal intrusion by govt agencies into our privacy. The Project for Privacy & Surveillance Accountability announced this week that it has obtained records about the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ use of stingrays to track Americans. PPSA filed a Freedom of Information Act request with the ATF in February 2021, and announced on Wednesday that it had received a batch of documents. According to PPSA, those documents show that the agency uses stingrays. “The information released by the ATF confirms the agency is indeed utilizing stingray technology,” PPSA said. “Although the agency attempted to minimize the usage of stingrays, it is clear they are being widely used against Americans.” ATF policy conceals the use of these devices from their targets, even when relevant to their legal defense.
OBSERVATION – More wholesale spying on citizens by the govt – entrenching tyrannical control.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
A reporter indicated that he may sue Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., after internal documents at Twitter revealed the Democrat tried to get him banned from the platform.
Elon Musk and journalist Matt Taibbi’s “Twitter Files” entry last week revealed that Schiff lobbied Twitter to suspend journalist Paul Sperry from the social media site in November 2020. Sperry, a senior reporter for RealClearInvestigations.com and a New York Post columnist, told Fox’s Brian Kilmeade that he was targeted by Schiff because of his reporting on Democrat sources in President Donald Trump’s first impeachment trial.
OBSERVATION- This lawsuit should also be along with an ethics violation investigation by the House.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The federal government is on track to max out on its $31.4 trillion borrowing authority as soon as this month, starting the clock on an expected standoff between President Joe Biden and the new House Republican majority that will test both parties’ ability to navigate a divided Washington, with the fragile global economy at stake.
Once the government bumps up against the cap — it could happen any time in the next few weeks or longer — the Treasury Department will be unable to issue new debt without congressional action. The department plans to deploy what are known as “extraordinary measures” to keep the government operating. But once those measures run out, probably mid-summer, the government could be at risk of defaulting .
OBSERVATION – Cross reference to Economy as well. The fight this time around over the debt ceiling could well be titanic and result in a govt shutdown. Depending on how long it lasts, the economy will likely take a hit as well. Need to watch what some of the early positioning statement say to get a better view of how this will play out.
House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) announced he intends to follow through on his promise to block Democrats from seats on powerful committees, partially in retribution for Democrats knocking two Republicans off their committees in 2021. he’s planning to keep the California Democratic Reps. Adam Schiff and Eric Stalwell from being assigned to the Intelligence Committee. And he’s going to stop the progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) from keeping her seat on the Foreign Affairs Committee.
OBSERVATION – Dems will be whining all week, but what is good for the goose, is good for the gander.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Pentagon announced on Tuesday that the Covid-19 vaccine will no longer be required for troops, according to a new memo signed by Defense Secretary Austin. Leading up to the decision, the Defense Department had already ceased all punitive actions against personnel who refused the shot. More than 8,400 troops were forced out of the military for refusing the jab.
OBSERVATION – Don’t hold your breath that those who received a DD for their refusal will see it reversed to a honorable.
The U.S. military is currently operating five forward logistics bases in the Philippines at Antonio Bautista Air Base in Palawan, Basa Air Base, 40 km north of the capital Manila, Ft Magsaysay in central Luzon, Lumbia Air Base in Mindanao and Mactan-Benito Ebuen Air Base. Located on Mactan Island off the coast of Cebu in the central Philippines. The U.S. is currently negotiating for, or in the process of building, five additional Forward Operating Bases in Kalayaan, Palawan, Zambales, and Isabela provinces in Luzon.
U.S. Marine Corps is converting an artillery regiment and an infantry regiment into Marine Littoral Regiments. The United States wants to disperse the new units throughout Japan’s Ryukyu and Nansei islands by 2026, arming them with missiles and lighter gear to deter China’s military, and will discuss the plan with Tokyo in Washington, D.C. The creation of the new Marine Littoral Regiments is part of a major reorganization of the U.S. Marine Corps outlined by its commandant.
OBSERVATION – Both of these actions are quick responses to growing Chinese aggression in the region and to have forces and equipment in place to respond.
Cyber Warfare –
(Reuters) - There is no evidence of a cyber attack in the FAA system outage that grounded flights across the country on Wednesday and President Joe Biden has ordered an investigation, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said.
“There is no evidence of a cyberattack at this point, but the President directed DOT (Department of Transportation) to conduct a full investigation into the causes. The FAA will provide regular updates,” Jean-Pierre said in a Twitter post.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Indicators –
A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office threatened to attack Taiwan and warned that foreign politicians who interject themselves into the island’s business are “playing with fire.” The spokesperson, Ma Xiaoguang, said at a biweekly press conference that China was recommitted in the new year to “safeguarding sovereignty and territorial integrity and smashing plots for Taiwan independence.”
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Wagner Group is using its limited success in Soledar to beat the Russian MoD in the public opinion sphere.
Russian media reported on Jan. 10 that Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin, former commander of the Central Military District (CMD) & Russian forces in eastern Kharkiv & northern Donetsk oblasts, has been appointed Chief of Staff of the Russian Ground Forces.
OBSERVATION – I noted this change a few weeks or so back. He is already catching flack from Wagner Group for the losses in Kharkiv oblast.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy clashes continue in Soledar, contrary to Russian (Wagner) claims of having control of the city. Russia does appear to have control to the salt mines and the eastern half, Ukraine at last report still held the western half. Wagner Group is making hay in Russia over its ‘victory’ as the power struggle with the MoD continues.
Russian ground and artillery attacks along the rest of the eastern front have lessened to a degree, far more scattered and sporadic.
OUTLOOK ——
At this stage, unless Ukraine pulls a rabbit out of its hat, Soledar is going to be lost. However, it is doubtful that Russia/Wagner will be able to effectively exploit this. They have wasted a huge number of conscripts in the effort and movement of armor out of the urban area, with the current persistent muddy conditions, into more open areas will be another turkey shoot for Ukraine.
Monitoring some changes in Ukraine view towards the Russian threat from Belarus. However, other analysts do not see any serious threat in the near future. Belarus is still assessed as staying in Belarus and not joining any offense from the north. See Belarus below.
Belarus -
Belarus’s defense ministry announced on Wednesday that its joint Russian-Belarusian air defense network had been reinforced with new missile units. “Anti-aircraft missile units advanced to designated areas and took up combat duty,” the ministry said in a brief statement.
There are reports of large amounts of Russian military equipment and troops moving into Belarus. A lot of the combat equipment is noted to have winter camouflage which is not wholly necessary for training activity and could indicate preparation for actual winter combat operations.
The UKR General Staff deviated from its normal reporting pattern about Russian forces in Belarus and near Ukraine’s northern border on January 10 by excluding its usual statement that Ukraine has not observed Russian forces forming strike groups in Belarus.
This could indicate that the Ukrainian military has observed Russian forces forming strike groups northern Ukraine. Alternatively, the situation may not have changed, and the Ukrainian General Staff may have left it out of the daily report in an isolated incident.
OBSERVATION - These are mixed signals in regards to Russian/Belarus intent. In the build up to the initial invasion, substantially larger movements of men and equipment from other military districts in Russia were noted coming into Belarus. AFA this time around, these deployments are not noted as happening. One potential course of action may be a ‘demonstration’ at the border in order to fix some of the Ukrainian forces in place so that they will not be available to defend from a winter Russian offensive. That is the current assessment of OSINT observers.
Iran –
Iran’s hanging of protesters - and display of their lifeless bodies suspended from cranes - seems to have instilled enough fear to keep people off the streets after months of anti-government unrest.
The achievement may prove shortlived, however, according analysts and experts. They argue the resort to deadly state violence is merely pushing dissent underground, while deepening anger felt by ordinary Iranians about the clerical establishment that has ruled them for four decades.
Reportedly, it has created a massive resentment among Iranians.
Inflation has soared to over 50 per cent, the highest level in decades. Youth unemployment remains high with over 50 per cent of Iranians being pushed below the poverty line, according to reports by Iran’s Statistics Centre.
OBSERVATION – Dissention will continue to simmer inspite of the crackdowns because Iran refuses to address the more critical needs of its citizens.
The U.S. Navy seized more than 2,000 assault rifles after halting a suspected smuggling vessel on its way from Iran to Yemen, the Navy announced Tuesday.
OBSERVATION – Though focusing on many other things, Iran continues to support terror in other areas of the Gulf region.
Syria -
(Reuters) According to a Turkish official: Discussions are continuing to hold a meeting between the foreign ministers of Turkey, Russia and the Assad government, and there are no problems, and work is being done on the timing.
OBSERVATION – Turkey working through hurdles to develop its kurd free buffer zone in N Syria.
Turkey -
See Syria above.
Illegals at the border also expresed gratitude to Biden for opening the country for them. Seems everyone knows who's buttering their bread.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Declaration of North America (DNA)
Today, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, President Joseph R. Biden, and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau met in Mexico City for the 10th North American Leaders’ Summit (NALS). The leaders are determined to fortify our region’s security, prosperity, sustainability and inclusiveness through commitments across six pillars: 1) diversity, equity, and inclusion; 2) climate change and the environment; 3) competitiveness; 4) migration and development; 5) health; and 6) regional security.
OBSERVATION – Classic globalist tripe. Read the announcement at the link above. I think this is setting the framework for a North American Union that eliminates the nations and rights we currently have (or at least still on paper have). Note also how they merge with WEF goals.
Gas stoves, the saga continues . . . . . .
RedState.com notes the company involved with the ‘study’ of health issues associated with gas stoves and the associated recent democrat attacks against them has links to the WEF. According to the report -
“Regardless, it’s worth asking where this is all coming from, right? Why did Democrats all start moving in lockstep to ban gas stoves, seemingly with no prior concern at all? And sure enough, with a little digging, it’s been revealed that this isn’t just idle science taking place.”
“The company behind the study is called Rocky Mountain Institute “Carbon-Free Buildings.” That company is a partner of the World Economic Forum and has a true-believer CEO who wants to rid the world of all carbon emissions (which is impossible and would lead to mass extinction).”
OBSERVATION – Just another effort to try to force more people off forms of energy that rely on fossil fuels (i.e. natural gas).
RELATED - The Consumer Product Safety Commission on Wednesday walked back a claim made by one of its members that the Biden administration was weighing a ban on new natural gas stoves over health concerns.
The reversal follows fierce rebukes from politicians and the energy industry.
The chair of the federal agency, Biden appointee Alexander Hoehn-Saric, said previous assertions made by fellow Commissioner Richard Trumka Jr. that the agency would consider a ban in the coming months was simply not true.
House Energy and Commerce Chair Cathy McMorris Rodgers, Washington Republican, described a ban as the “latest in a long line of power grabs by the radical left and Biden administration.”
“It is not about public safety,” she said. “It is about telling the American people the federal government knows best and will decide what kind of car they can drive, how they can heat their house, and now how they’re allowed to cook food for their families.”
OBSERVATION – Said dozens and dozens of times – its all about power.
Reagan called the nine most terrifying words in the English language: “I’m from the government, and I’m here to help you kill yourself.”
Soon after the announcement that Canada would expand its medically assisted suicide program to include those with mental illness, the popular Canadian department store chain Simons issued a new advertisement celebrating the policy. The video features a woman saying, “Last breaths are sacred; you just have to be brave enough to see it,” over a montage of her being wheeled to places of natural wonder. The department store’s logo is featured prominently at the end of the commercial.
OBSERVATION – Death is an obsession with the WEF and other globalists. It is their stated goal to substantially depopulate the planet (the now destroyed Georgia guidestones called for a global population of no more than 500 million). When 0bama care / universal health care was debated here in the US, the discussion of the death counsels was raised – how worth it was your life to be continued versus the medical resources needed. Assisted suicide at a state level has been around some blue states, but never at the brazen level now projected by Canada. Remember Canada has been the beta test country for many of the GGR’s stated plans. Remember also that our medical crisis has been manipulated by the tyrannical leftists in DC towards the goal of universal health care, bring along with it the inevitable govt directed euthanasia of the sick and elderly.
The Georgia governor and republican is scheduled to be in Davos for the WEF confab. Many are asking WHY? Perhaps a hint was seen earlier in 2022 when Georgia’s Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger announced that he was awarding management of Georgia’s voter registration system to a subsidiary of Salesforce.com. Marc Benioff is founder and co-chairman of Salesforce and is also a member of the Board of Trustees of the World Economic Forum.
OBSERVATION – Once again the WEF shows that it has the power to influence and control governments. In this case, follow the money.
Wuhan virus –
Wuhan virus continues to develop new forms of the Omicron strain, which is the predominant form of the virus circulating today. Much more contagious than the original novel coronavirus found in Wuhan, China in late 2019, the omicron strain has continued to mutate; there are now more than 650 subvariants, and that doesn’t include the previous Greek-letter versions like Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and their subtypes.
Certain subvariants that are concerning are now being given names from Greek lore. The current mutation, XBB1.5, that is showing growth in the United States is being called the “Kraken” variant, after the mythological sea monster.
The Kraken variant is thought by the World Health Organization (WHO) to be the most transmissible version yet, with possible reproductive (R-Nought) numbers above 18. A disease’s R-Nought is the number of cases that will occur in a vulnerable population if an infected person is placed in the middle of it. Measles’ R-nought is about 18, which means that an infected individual will give the disease to an average of 18 susceptible people. The Kraken variant is apparently even more contagious.
https://www.doomandbloom.net/the-kraken-variant/
OBSERVATION – No evidence that this variant has gained lethality, but trend indicates it is not very lethal inspite of being highly contagious. From what I’ve read, the traditional trend (back when real science mattered) is for these viruses to increase in transmissibility and decrease in lethality – ie more hosts and not killing itself (host) off in the process.
Economy –
Even if the U.S. avoids a recession in 2023, American consumers and investors could face a grinding slowdown that likely won’t let up until 2024, according to a new outlook published by Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi.
Zandi even coined a new term to describe this kind of protracted downturn, calling it a “slowcession” in a note sent to clients and reporters on Tuesday.
The mainstream view on Wall Street is that as the Federal Reserve slashes interest rates to help cushion the blow for investors and consumers, the U.S. economy will likely enter a brief recession during the first half of 2023, but that it will be over long before year’s end.
Still, while Zandi believes the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hikes in decades will have a deleterious impact on GDP growth, he thinks a strong U.S. labor market and other factors relating to the consumer should help prevent an outright contraction in the economy.
“There is no doubt the economy will struggle in the coming year as the Fed works to rein in the high inflation, but the baseline outlook holds that the Fed will be able to accomplish this without precipitating a recession,” Zandi said in the note.
According to a set of forecasts, Zandi expects U.S. gross domestic product to grow by roughly 1% or less on a year-over-year basis during all four quarters in 2023.
OBSERVATION – New term and concept, but still doesn’t sound very good. He doesn’t define “strong labor market” and if the Fed hits its unemployment ‘goal’ of 5%+ how is that ‘strong’. Also ignores the historical role the housing market plays in helping the nation pull out of recessions – that role will be denied under prolonged high interest rates and unemployment. Doesn’t seem to factor in continuing stressors that will push to maintain inflationary trends such as agricultural related, disruptions of the oil/gas industry (minus major chaos from wars) and inflated govt spending.
Yes, I’m inclined to be more doomish on my outlook, but post wuhan and the purposeful economic implosion directed by the biden regime pushes the recession analyses – particularly those who say there will be on recesson or that it will be minor – are understating these and other factors.
Complications from extreme winter weather conditions are at least partly to blame for a feed crisis confronting California-based poultry producer Foster Farms.
The shortage of feed — which it blamed on Union Pacific rail delivery failures — imperiled both chickens and cattle, the company said in a Dec. 29 petition to the Service Transportation Board for emergency assistance.
“The point has again been reached where hundreds of thousands of dairy cattle are not being fed, and when millions of chickens will starve to death because of UP’s service failures,” Foster Farms said in the petition.
“While Foster Farms concedes that weather played a part, it also believes this failure is indicative of systemic problems within UP that will persist,” the company said in an STB filing Thursday after four of the five feed trains had arrived. Foster Farms said Union Pacific delays have affected three of its facilities in California since October.
OBSERVATION – A lot has been made out of the outrageous egg prices recently. This kalifornia component is just one. The late December arctic blast (Winter Storm Elliott) killed many chickens as well (reducing egg production).
However, UP and other rail roads have had trouble dealing with engineer shortages and back up of trains with its own cars, let alone cars belonging to other companies that they transport. I’ve noted these issues throughout 2022. Logistics supply to companies look to continue to be critical throughout 2023.
Analysts from ING Groep NV and Goldman Sachs expect a rally for oil to bring the price above $100 a barrel as Russian supply drops and China increases oil imports. American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers said the Biden administration’s refusal to signal support for the U.S. oil and gas sector is making it difficult for producers to access capital and increase production.(FO)
OBSERVATION – Continued forecasts of higher oil prices as we enter the summer season. These forecasts have to be caveated with no Black Swan events – such as Belarus entering the Ukraine war in a more active manner or China making starting moves to take Taiwan. Here in my corner of the Redoubt gasoline prices are starting their upward migration.
Department of Agriculture (USDA) Secretary Tom Vilsack outlined a first round of funding on a $500 million program to expand domestic fertilizer production.
OBSERVATION – Expansion of domestic fertilizer will need natural gas as well as mined minerals such as phosphorus. Both of those areas face huge hurdles in today’s biden regime environment.
Invasion of Illegals –
Mexico’s President Andrés Lopez Obrador says 40 million Mexicans are living in the United States.
“Just imagine: There are 40 million Mexicans in the United States — 40 million [including people] who were born here in Mexico, [or] who are the children of people who were born in Mexico,” President Andrés Lopez Obrador gushed at a January 10 press conference with President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Obrador’s proud Mexican-first advocacy for ethnic Mexicans — including ethnic Mexicans in the United States — is very different from the globalist, investor-first policies pushed by Trudeau and Biden.
OBSERVATION – See also Globalism / Great Reset above on the DNA statement pushing movement to a North America without borders.
Biden / Harris watch –
Aides to President Joe Biden have discovered at least one additional batch of classified documents in a location separate from the Washington, D.C., office he used after serving as vice president, NBC News reported Wednesday
CW2/Domestic violence –
The American Civil Liberties Union is calling for an overhaul of FBI rules after The Washington Times reported that agents used the CIA and National Security Agency to spy on Americans.
The ACLU urged the bureau to impose new limits on agents’ power to investigate Americans without warrants.
The FBI’s rule book, rewritten in 2021, revealed details about how the FBI tasks the CIA and NSA for help on matters including assessments, which are investigations that can involve surveillance without a court order against people not accused of a crime.
OBSERVATION – A clear case of a blind squirrel finding a nut.
POLITICAL FRONT –
President Joe Biden’s possession of classified information while he was vice president, other members of his current administration have been linked to the scandal. The classified documents were found at the Penn Biden Center, a think tank that the president started in 2018.
As reported by Fox News, 10 members of Biden’s administration were formally employed at the think tank, including current Secretary of State Antony Blinken.
The list also includes Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl and White House Counselor Steven Richetti. Blinken and Richetti were managing directors at the think tank while Kahl was a consultant.
Spencer Boyer, the deputy assistant secretary of defense for NATO and Europe policy was a senior fellow at Penn Biden.
Deputy to the U.N. Ambassador Jeffrey Prescott; Ariana Berengaut; Organization of Security and Cooperation Europe Michael Carpenter, special assistant Juan Gonzalez, speechwriter Carlyn Reichel, and former deputy secretary of state Brian McKeon.
OBSERVATION – Waiting for the FBI raids and special prosecutor to be named.
RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel is facing stiffer head winds as she tries to be reelected to that position. As a result of the debacle that was the 2022 midterms where she lead the party to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, a growing number of conservatives want to see a change in leadership.
OBSERVATION – She is deep rooted, deep state niece of turn coat Sen Romney. But the RNC’s epic failure last year may work to force her out in spite of her ties. A recent Human Events poll reports that just six percent of Republicans want Ronna McDaniel to remain RNC chair,
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
Indicators –
• China executed a snap military exercise on Monday that simulated kinetic strikes on Taiwanese infrastructure and what appeared to be an air/sea blockade along its southern and eastern coasts. The exercise was unexpected and only announced after commencement.
• The exercise included more than 57 tactical aircraft and four naval surface combatants.
• The exercise was run by the People’s Liberation Army Eastern Theater Command – the command that would be responsible for a military operation against Taiwan.
• China has been making massive new purchases of gold, suggesting that it is expecting western sanctions and financial disruption ahead of a move on Taiwan. NOTE - China has long been purchasing a lot of gold, also thought to be in preparation for a move to gold backed standard currency.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s Yoon says if North Korean provocations continue, the South could deploy tactical nuclear warheads or possess its own nukes, saying, “We’ll be able to get hold of them sooner with our science and technology.”
OBSERVATION - It has long been considered that technologically advanced countries like Japan and S Korea could express run a nuclear program – all they would need is the fissile Uranium or Plutonium.
Japan –
Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and the U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak signed a new defense agreement on Wednesday. The agreement provides reciprocal deployment of military forces for training and operations.
OBSERVATION – Japan continues to move at maximum speed to prepare for conflict with China in both diplomatic and material arenas.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Eyebrows have been raised at the deployment of Russian Navy ships and submarines from their base at Novorossiysk, in the Black Sea, en-masse. This is highly unusual and may indicate ongoing operations. Sources seen by Naval News confirm the exodus. The group included the Project 11711 Ivan Gren class landing ship, Pyotr Morgunov, the largest amphibious ship in the Black Sea.
It also contained all three Project 636.3 Improved-Kilo class submarines which were present at the base. Analysis suggests that other warships were also sailing, leaving only a few warships and support vessels in the port. It is likely the most empty that Novorossiysk has been in many months.
The remaining explanation is that the Russian Navy assets are involved in an operation. The last time we reported an unusual spike in Russian Navy activity it preceded extensive missile strikes on Ukraine. The Improved-Kilo class submarines have been used to launch Kalibr cruise missile attacks on Ukraine.
Also seemingly associated are reports of significant Russian GPS jamming in and around the Black Sea. Several indications occurring of a possible significant escalation by Russian forces.
OBSERVATION – Most definitively an indicator of an impending Russian missile/cruise missile/drone blitz. What is curious is the deployment of their amphib landing ships. At this stage of the war it is almost inconceivable that Russia would attempt any kind of an amphib operation against Ukraine as it is armed to the teeth with modern anti-ship weapons systems that would cut the landing craft to pieces. These landing craft have been previously tasked with shuttling supplies across the Kerch Strait until the bridge is fully repaired – due sometime in the late summer.
One observation I have is that Russia could have done some modifications to permit these amphib vessels to launch Iranian drones, perhaps stealing a page out of Iran’s current naval build up that includes drone launching ships.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian invasion of Ukraine may come to a terrifying end in 2023, with Russian President Vladimir Putin likely to turn to nuclear weapons rather than have his armies be completely routed on the battlefield, retired US Army Brig.-Gen. Kevin Ryan said in a Tuesday interview with Insider.
This possibility could occur, Ryan, who also was the former US military attache to Russia, told Insider, with the goal of not only taking out Ukrainian troops but also forcing Kyiv into surrendering to avoid a nuclear holocaustscenario. Moscow could make this move if one of two things happened:
1. Ukraine’s forces are about to utterly defeat the Russian military in the field
2. Ukraine’s forces are about to finally retake the Crimean Peninsula that Moscow annexed in 2014
OBSERVATION – these points have been covered in the past few months, so there is nothing really new here. Russian nukes are a wildcard. Some analysts suggest that if putin dies with the war ongoing, his successor may be very inclined to execute this option.
RUMINT-
Growing rumors that a Russian 2nd mobilization is looming with as many as 500K more soldiers will be mobilized, in addition to 300K in September. It is being reported that Moscow will restrict travel for men of military age 18-45. The Russian FSB claims this is false- but in May, the Duma increased the age limit for contractual military service from 45 to 65.
NOTE – If the previous mobilization is any model, this larger one will also be a goat rope. Barely trained conscripts could see fighting in about a month, while those needed to operate armor, artillery, etc will take longer. This constrains the Russian planning.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Heavy clashes continue in Soledar as the town still refuses to fall to Russian (Wagner) forces. Russia is slowly developing pincers to the north and south of the town in an effort to cutoff Ukrainian logistic support.
Russian forces are reportedly losing ground around the key logistic hub of Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast. More intense fighting also being reported northwest of Svatove.
OUTLOOK ——
The Wagner – Russian MoD soap opera continues as Wagner forces continue to try to sieze Soledar. Heavy propaganda on both sides. It has been estimated that Wagner has lost as many as 13,000 fighters over the past couple weeks in their push to take the village. Most of these would be recently mobilized conscripts likely taken out of prisons.
The current situation has taken Wagner several months to accomplish the forward movement of the LOC about 1 km. Current efforts to surround Soledar appear be slowly bearing fruit and the village may not last under Ukraine control for much longer.
The capture of Soledar would not add that much to the situation in the Donbas or the goal of capturing Bakhmut. Russian (Wagner) forces will be thoroughly bleed out an unable to exploit the success as it would face more Ukrainian defenses in depth.
New Russian changes in command of the Russia forces in Ukraine has a lot of eyebrows raised as well. General ‘Armageddon” replaced after only three months and relegated to a deputy. Watching to see how this will play out. Surovikin was reportedly able to work with Wagner Group leadership. General Gerasimov OTOH has been at war with Wagner group leaders over his poor execution of the war from the kremlin.
Belarus -
Russian Ground Forces commander Salyukov visited Belarus to inspect ‘combat readiness’, the Belarusian defence ministry says - Reuters.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is going to Minsk on January 19. It’s reported that he will take part in the joint board of the MFAs of Belarus and Russia. The last time Lavrov was in Minsk on December 19, when Putin also arrived in Belarus.
OBSERVATION – Many are watching closely for signs that Belarus will join the Ukraine war or if Russia will launch on its own. From the political/military standpoint, Russia is giving a lot of attention on the readiness of Belarus as well as its efforts to integrate both forces together. As mentioned before, this could be a psyop effort to cause Ukraine to maintain forces in the north and not have them available to counter any Russian offensive.
Attack indicators seen in the lead up to Feb 2022’s start of the war are not overwhelmingly present, the progressive build up of Russian forces and even some armor/tanks is gaining more attention.
ASSESSMENT – The possibility of either a Russian/Belarus or a straight Russian attack southward out of Belarus is moving higher, though still considered by many to be unlikely. Current actions are indicative of a build up that would be necessary for any kind of a round two coming out of Belarus. The pressing question is does the Belarus president have the political will to risk a coup and order Belarus military forces to cross the border with its Russian counterparts?
Running short on time today, so a little shorter than usual.
Globalism / Great Reset -
(FO) In its 2023 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum (WEF) uses the word “polycrisis” to describe the array of threats and risks facing the world in 2023. “This is the year of the polycrisis, where risks are more interdependent and reciprocally damaging than ever,”
The WEF sees inflation, natural disasters, geoeconomic confrontation, climate change, and the “erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization” (leading to state collapse) as the world’s top five threats over the next two years, especially as the world decouples into eastern and western spheres of influences.
The key takeaways from the five areas of this report –
1. Inflation and the Cost of Living Crisis: Disruptions to food and energy markets will drive political and social unrest.
2. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters are expected to become more severe and frequent, putting stress on governments and increasing environmental and social risks.
3. Geoeconomic Confrontation: Conflict between nations over economic matters and “the weaponization of economic policy,” such as sanctions, export controls, and trade wars, “risk widespread spillovers” in the global economy. This will push nations to become more self-sufficient and less interconnected, accelerating deglobalization and further fracturing.
4. Climate Change: The top climate change risks, according to the WEF, center on the failure to mitigate climate change and the failure to adapt to it.
5. Societal Polarization: Social disintegration is a rising risk due to many factors, including the four mentioned above. The report talks about a values gap and inequality as being the two leading factors currently polarizing populations.
6. Societal Polarization: Polarization and social disintegration leading to violent social movements and state collapse.
OBSERVATION - Report is rather gloomy and is interesting as such. The GGR/WEF folks look to this level of social/economic upheaval to usher in its “Great Reset” agenda and world governance. Many of these issues appear to be driven behind the scenes by the WEF and affiliated govts and agencies. They are creating the problem in order to drive the world into accepting their “solution”.
Wuhan virus –
Pfizer was required by the U.S. and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to conduct multiple studies on its vaccine after the FDA approved the shot in August 2021 because regulators determined that without the studies, there would not be sufficient data to assess the “known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis,” or heart inflammation and a related condition.
Regulators were also concerned about the potential risk of subclinical myocarditis, or heart inflammation without typical symptoms.
The FDA told Pfizer to carry out six studies, with various deadlines for completion and reporting final results to the agency. The first final deadline arrived on Dec. 31, 2022.
Pfizer was required to submit a report on the study, which was to assess the incidence of subclinical myocarditis following administration of a third dose of Pfizer’s vaccine, or a booster shot, in people aged 16 to 30.
It’s unclear whether Pfizer met the deadline. The company and the FDA did not respond to requests for comment, and neither have issued any information about the study or its results since the deadline passed.
The FDA added a warning about myocarditis following Pfizer and Moderna vaccination to patient and health care provider fact sheets in June 2021. Both vaccines utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Prospective vaccine recipients were told the risk of myocarditis was increased after vaccination, particularly after the second dose of the two-dose primary series.
OBSERVATION – Pfizer committed fraud and both they and the FDA know it. Seems FDA positioning itself to pin blame on Pfizer, knowing the swamp will protect it’s corrupted basis for approval.
Economy –
Led by lower energy costs, acceleration in U.S. inflation eased in December for the sixth consecutive month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 6.5% in December, down from 7.1% in November and well below the 9.1% peak in June.
OBSERVATION – Inflation isn’t dead by a long shot. Prices outside of energy have continued under strong inflationary rates - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent for the month. Core prices were up 5.7 percent compared with a year ago.
And the relief from energy costs are only expected to be short lived as gasoline prices are expected to rebound to $4+ range by early summer.
As the US edges closer to a potential crisis on the debt ceiling, various elements are coming up with plans to circumvent any delay in the rise. Some conservatives are wanting to play hardball with concessions while the banking sector is warning of economic catastrophe for debt default. IMHO, the US has few options anymore given the uncontrolled spending and current economic shakiness and impending recession. Raising the ceiling is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario that plays right into the lefts hands either way.
Sky high electrical and natural gas prices are beginning to cause steel and aluminum plants to slow down and in some ways, shut down. This in turn is affecting the economy with layoffs and more supply shortages with higher prices. Decisions to shut down operations are of last resort, since shut down procedures are long and tedious and restarting takes another six to nine months. For this reason, owners don’t halt operations unless they’ve exhausted all other options.
OBSERVATION – Growing up, the Pacific NW had a bunch of Aluminum smelting plants because of the abundant supply of cheep electricity from hydro and coal plants. Over the years as population has grown and electrical supply has dropped these plants have largely shut down and disappeared. Now that business has been transferred to China – and we all know how that has been going.
Invasion of Illegals –
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is extending temporary amnesty status to thousands of Somali nationals living in the United States who would otherwise be eligible for deportation.
On Thursday, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced that the Biden administration is extending and redesignating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 18 months, which will allow more than 2,600 Somali nationals to remain living and working in the U.S.
OBSERVATION - They have not been the best model ‘citizens’ in Minnesota
Biden / Harris watch –
Peter Doocy on new batch of classified documents found in Biden’s garage: “Classified material next to your Corvette! What were you thinking?”
Biden responds: “My Corvette is in a locked garage, OK? So it’s not like they’re sitting out on the street”
Doocy: “So, the material was in a locked garage?”
“Yes,” said Biden, “as well as my Corvette.
“But as I said earlier this week, people know I take classified documents and classified material seriously,” Biden said.
Now a third discovery has been announced. The finding came at Biden’s personal residence in Wilmington, Delaware, and follows two other classified batches from his vice presidential days that were flagged last year, Attorney General Merrick Garland revealed Thursday.
...
So far, there have been at least three distinct classified document discoveries. The first came on Nov. 2 of last year, while a Biden lawyer was clearing out a closet in the president’s old office space at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, a foreign policy-focused think tank. Biden “periodically used this space from mid-2017 until the start of the 2020 campaign,” according to White House counsel Richard Sauber.
OBSERVATION - As noted under politics, this could be the start of a move to keep biden off the 2024 ticket.
But we can rest assured that biden takes security of his Corvette more seriously than the boxes of highly classified document in his possession.
Anyone notice that harris has dropped off the radar for the past several months – perhaps in part is her continued demonstrated incompetence on full display at a recent press conference where she tossed some whopper word salads –
Kamala: “It is the Caribbean nations, island nations in the Western hemisphere. That is where the Caribbean is. We are also in the Western Hemisphere. They are our neighbors.”
Harris: “I think of this moment as a moment that is about great momentum, inspired by, yes, optimism… but also inspired by also our collective ability to see what can be unburdened by what has been.”
Harris: “Always think about complex issues through the frame of a Venn diagram.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
The U.S. Department of Education has launched an investigation based on the American Civil Liberties Union’s (ACLU) complaint against Granbury Independent School District (GISD) and Superintendent Jeremy Glenn which centers on the removal of controversial books as well as related comments made by Glenn.
RELATED: Cross-dressing Book for Pre-K Students Crossed the Line
ACLU alleges GISD exhibited anti-LGBT discrimination and violated Title IX, the federal civil rights law prohibiting sex-based discrimination, but reinterpreted by the Biden administration to include sexual orientation and gender identity.
OBSERVATION – A different kind of incident for the CW2 topic, but I see this as just one of the many stressors that are increasing the cultural split in his country that may well end up in a violent split of the country. Here the biden regime is trying to force by ‘law’ radical LGBT agenda on the children.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Attorney General Merrick Garland has just announced that he is appointing a special counsel to investigate whether Biden mishandled classified information during his time in private life. The DoJ named Robert Hur, a partner at Gibson Dunn, as the special prosecutor.
OBSERVATION – Some are wondering if this is the next step in preventing a second biden run for the presidency, given how the MSM is largely not providing cover for him on this scandal.
RELATED - Robert Hur is the man who served as the DOJ point man to Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation looking into Donald Trump’s alleged side hustle as a Russian secret agent — Double 45.
He is the same guy who vetted retired British spy Christopher Steele, a disgraced (sensing a pattern here?) spy who was fired by the FBI (and then used on the QT by his cutout Bruce Ohr) and hired actual Russian spies on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s campaign to make up information on Trump.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pending further confirmation but reports that a large number of U.S. army tanks and military vehicles began arriving at the Dutch port of Vlissingen on Wednesday (January 11), ahead of their transport to Poland and Lithuania later this year as part of moves to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. The equipment includes large numbers of M-1 Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, of Fort Hood, Texas. Dutch armed forces are helping with marine security and guarding the port area where the vehicles will be housed before they continue East.
OBSERVATION – I’ve not seen any announcements of this level of deployment, though could have been overwhelmed by other news.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s exports reportedly shrank by 9.9% year-on-year in December, following an 8.7% contraction in November. “The outlook for exports remains weak, given the combination of slowing global growth and ongoing consumer shift from goods towards services.
OBSERVATION – This is reflected globally via supply shortages and the drive to relocate production to other nations or back to the home countries. This is going to make China’s global plans a lot harder to follow through on.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control over Soledar since last night, however there are unconfirmed reports of a Ukraine counter attack on going. Information has been mixed, but it is likely Russia has made more gains in the town.
Continued Russian attacks against Bahkmut and outskirts of Donetsk. Most of the Russian artillery strikes were reported along the line from Svatove south to the Donetsk region. Widely scattered elsewhere.
OUTLOOK ——
I expect that barring a surprise, Russia will start consolidating Soledar and try to pivot for an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in nearby Bakhmut. The key issue is does Russia have the forces left to exploit this in any meaningful manner. They have put tremendous residual resources in this fight that will be necessary if Ukraine kicks off a winter offensive.
NATO said Friday that it would deploy its fleet of E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System surveillance aircraft (AWACS) to Romania in order to perform reconnaissance of Russian military movements in Ukraine. The aircraft will reportedly operate out of a military airbase near the capital of Bucharest.
OBSERVATION – Monitor any potential Russian winter offensive
Iran –
There were no reported protests in Iran for the second consecutive day on January 12, 2023.
OBSERVATION – I noted a few posts ago that the protests are shifting to an underground movement in the face of ever violent govt suppression.
Running short on time today, so a little shorter than usual.
Globalism / Great Reset -
(FO) In its 2023 Global Risks Report, the World Economic Forum (WEF) uses the word “polycrisis” to describe the array of threats and risks facing the world in 2023. “This is the year of the polycrisis, where risks are more interdependent and reciprocally damaging than ever,”
The WEF sees inflation, natural disasters, geoeconomic confrontation, climate change, and the “erosion of social cohesion and societal polarization” (leading to state collapse) as the world’s top five threats over the next two years, especially as the world decouples into eastern and western spheres of influences.
The key takeaways from the five areas of this report –
1. Inflation and the Cost of Living Crisis: Disruptions to food and energy markets will drive political and social unrest.
2. Natural Disasters: Natural disasters are expected to become more severe and frequent, putting stress on governments and increasing environmental and social risks.
3. Geoeconomic Confrontation: Conflict between nations over economic matters and “the weaponization of economic policy,” such as sanctions, export controls, and trade wars, “risk widespread spillovers” in the global economy. This will push nations to become more self-sufficient and less interconnected, accelerating deglobalization and further fracturing.
4. Climate Change: The top climate change risks, according to the WEF, center on the failure to mitigate climate change and the failure to adapt to it.
5. Societal Polarization: Social disintegration is a rising risk due to many factors, including the four mentioned above. The report talks about a values gap and inequality as being the two leading factors currently polarizing populations.
6. Societal Polarization: Polarization and social disintegration leading to violent social movements and state collapse.
OBSERVATION - Report is rather gloomy and is interesting as such. The GGR/WEF folks look to this level of social/economic upheaval to usher in its “Great Reset” agenda and world governance. Many of these issues appear to be driven behind the scenes by the WEF and affiliated govts and agencies. They are creating the problem in order to drive the world into accepting their “solution”.
Wuhan virus –
Pfizer was required by the U.S. and Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to conduct multiple studies on its vaccine after the FDA approved the shot in August 2021 because regulators determined that without the studies, there would not be sufficient data to assess the “known serious risks of myocarditis and pericarditis,” or heart inflammation and a related condition.
Regulators were also concerned about the potential risk of subclinical myocarditis, or heart inflammation without typical symptoms.
The FDA told Pfizer to carry out six studies, with various deadlines for completion and reporting final results to the agency. The first final deadline arrived on Dec. 31, 2022.
Pfizer was required to submit a report on the study, which was to assess the incidence of subclinical myocarditis following administration of a third dose of Pfizer’s vaccine, or a booster shot, in people aged 16 to 30.
It’s unclear whether Pfizer met the deadline. The company and the FDA did not respond to requests for comment, and neither have issued any information about the study or its results since the deadline passed.
The FDA added a warning about myocarditis following Pfizer and Moderna vaccination to patient and health care provider fact sheets in June 2021. Both vaccines utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Prospective vaccine recipients were told the risk of myocarditis was increased after vaccination, particularly after the second dose of the two-dose primary series.
OBSERVATION – Pfizer committed fraud and both they and the FDA know it. Seems FDA positioning itself to pin blame on Pfizer, knowing the swamp will protect it’s corrupted basis for approval.
Economy –
Led by lower energy costs, acceleration in U.S. inflation eased in December for the sixth consecutive month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annualized rate of 6.5% in December, down from 7.1% in November and well below the 9.1% peak in June.
OBSERVATION – Inflation isn’t dead by a long shot. Prices outside of energy have continued under strong inflationary rates - Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3 percent for the month. Core prices were up 5.7 percent compared with a year ago.
And the relief from energy costs are only expected to be short lived as gasoline prices are expected to rebound to $4+ range by early summer.
As the US edges closer to a potential crisis on the debt ceiling, various elements are coming up with plans to circumvent any delay in the rise. Some conservatives are wanting to play hardball with concessions while the banking sector is warning of economic catastrophe for debt default. IMHO, the US has few options anymore given the uncontrolled spending and current economic shakiness and impending recession. Raising the ceiling is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t scenario that plays right into the lefts hands either way.
Sky high electrical and natural gas prices are beginning to cause steel and aluminum plants to slow down and in some ways, shut down. This in turn is affecting the economy with layoffs and more supply shortages with higher prices. Decisions to shut down operations are of last resort, since shut down procedures are long and tedious and restarting takes another six to nine months. For this reason, owners don’t halt operations unless they’ve exhausted all other options.
OBSERVATION – Growing up, the Pacific NW had a bunch of Aluminum smelting plants because of the abundant supply of cheep electricity from hydro and coal plants. Over the years as population has grown and electrical supply has dropped these plants have largely shut down and disappeared. Now that business has been transferred to China – and we all know how that has been going.
Invasion of Illegals –
Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is extending temporary amnesty status to thousands of Somali nationals living in the United States who would otherwise be eligible for deportation.
On Thursday, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas announced that the Biden administration is extending and redesignating Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for 18 months, which will allow more than 2,600 Somali nationals to remain living and working in the U.S.
OBSERVATION - They have not been the best model ‘citizens’ in Minnesota
Biden / Harris watch –
Peter Doocy on new batch of classified documents found in Biden’s garage: “Classified material next to your Corvette! What were you thinking?”
Biden responds: “My Corvette is in a locked garage, OK? So it’s not like they’re sitting out on the street”
Doocy: “So, the material was in a locked garage?”
“Yes,” said Biden, “as well as my Corvette.
“But as I said earlier this week, people know I take classified documents and classified material seriously,” Biden said.
Now a third discovery has been announced. The finding came at Biden’s personal residence in Wilmington, Delaware, and follows two other classified batches from his vice presidential days that were flagged last year, Attorney General Merrick Garland revealed Thursday.
...
So far, there have been at least three distinct classified document discoveries. The first came on Nov. 2 of last year, while a Biden lawyer was clearing out a closet in the president’s old office space at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement, a foreign policy-focused think tank. Biden “periodically used this space from mid-2017 until the start of the 2020 campaign,” according to White House counsel Richard Sauber.
OBSERVATION - As noted under politics, this could be the start of a move to keep biden off the 2024 ticket.
But we can rest assured that biden takes security of his Corvette more seriously than the boxes of highly classified document in his possession.
Anyone notice that harris has dropped off the radar for the past several months – perhaps in part is her continued demonstrated incompetence on full display at a recent press conference where she tossed some whopper word salads –
Kamala: “It is the Caribbean nations, island nations in the Western hemisphere. That is where the Caribbean is. We are also in the Western Hemisphere. They are our neighbors.”
Harris: “I think of this moment as a moment that is about great momentum, inspired by, yes, optimism… but also inspired by also our collective ability to see what can be unburdened by what has been.”
Harris: “Always think about complex issues through the frame of a Venn diagram.”
CW2/Domestic violence –
The U.S. Department of Education has launched an investigation based on the American Civil Liberties Union’s (ACLU) complaint against Granbury Independent School District (GISD) and Superintendent Jeremy Glenn which centers on the removal of controversial books as well as related comments made by Glenn.
RELATED: Cross-dressing Book for Pre-K Students Crossed the Line
ACLU alleges GISD exhibited anti-LGBT discrimination and violated Title IX, the federal civil rights law prohibiting sex-based discrimination, but reinterpreted by the Biden administration to include sexual orientation and gender identity.
OBSERVATION – A different kind of incident for the CW2 topic, but I see this as just one of the many stressors that are increasing the cultural split in his country that may well end up in a violent split of the country. Here the biden regime is trying to force by ‘law’ radical LGBT agenda on the children.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Attorney General Merrick Garland has just announced that he is appointing a special counsel to investigate whether Biden mishandled classified information during his time in private life. The DoJ named Robert Hur, a partner at Gibson Dunn, as the special prosecutor.
OBSERVATION – Some are wondering if this is the next step in preventing a second biden run for the presidency, given how the MSM is largely not providing cover for him on this scandal.
RELATED - Robert Hur is the man who served as the DOJ point man to Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation looking into Donald Trump’s alleged side hustle as a Russian secret agent — Double 45.
He is the same guy who vetted retired British spy Christopher Steele, a disgraced (sensing a pattern here?) spy who was fired by the FBI (and then used on the QT by his cutout Bruce Ohr) and hired actual Russian spies on behalf of Hillary Clinton’s campaign to make up information on Trump.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Pending further confirmation but reports that a large number of U.S. army tanks and military vehicles began arriving at the Dutch port of Vlissingen on Wednesday (January 11), ahead of their transport to Poland and Lithuania later this year as part of moves to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank. The equipment includes large numbers of M-1 Abrams tanks and Bradley Fighting Vehicles from the 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 1st Cavalry Division, of Fort Hood, Texas. Dutch armed forces are helping with marine security and guarding the port area where the vehicles will be housed before they continue East.
OBSERVATION – I’ve not seen any announcements of this level of deployment, though could have been overwhelmed by other news.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe. Chinese New Year celebrations begin 22 January, after which they would have 60 days until a break in seasonally rough weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s exports reportedly shrank by 9.9% year-on-year in December, following an 8.7% contraction in November. “The outlook for exports remains weak, given the combination of slowing global growth and ongoing consumer shift from goods towards services.
OBSERVATION – This is reflected globally via supply shortages and the drive to relocate production to other nations or back to the home countries. This is going to make China’s global plans a lot harder to follow through on.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia’s “three days to conquer Ukraine” war continues since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukrainian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
********
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing and for much of eastern Ukraine, a multi-day episode of sub-freezing temperatures on the way.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full control over Soledar since last night, however there are unconfirmed reports of a Ukraine counter attack on going. Information has been mixed, but it is likely Russia has made more gains in the town.
Continued Russian attacks against Bahkmut and outskirts of Donetsk. Most of the Russian artillery strikes were reported along the line from Svatove south to the Donetsk region. Widely scattered elsewhere.
OUTLOOK ——
I expect that barring a surprise, Russia will start consolidating Soledar and try to pivot for an encirclement of Ukrainian forces in nearby Bakhmut. The key issue is does Russia have the forces left to exploit this in any meaningful manner. They have put tremendous residual resources in this fight that will be necessary if Ukraine kicks off a winter offensive.
NATO said Friday that it would deploy its fleet of E-3 Airborne Warning and Control System surveillance aircraft (AWACS) to Romania in order to perform reconnaissance of Russian military movements in Ukraine. The aircraft will reportedly operate out of a military airbase near the capital of Bucharest.
OBSERVATION – Monitor any potential Russian winter offensive
Iran –
There were no reported protests in Iran for the second consecutive day on January 12, 2023.
OBSERVATION – I noted a few posts ago that the protests are shifting to an underground movement in the face of ever violent govt suppression.
Harris: “Always think about complex issues through the frame of a Venn diagram.”>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Poor knee pads, she clearly is showing that she did indeed smoke whacky tabacky in San Francisco, and proves that she has a permanent store of Tetrahydrocannabinol in the fatty tissues of her brain.
Scary to think she is only one small step away from carrying the nuclear football while Pooty is revving up the gyroscopes in his ICBMs.
“polycrisis“……
These folks like to coin new words to describe situations that have repeated over and over throughout history. They always think what we are facing is the “biggest, baddest, ‘worstest’” events ever!
It make dredging through their writings difficult.
You know the WEF’ers hire people to summarize this stuff into readable tidbits. Ha ha.
Thanks for doing that for us.
The FDA added a warning about myocarditis following Pfizer and Moderna vaccination to patient and health care provider fact sheets in June 2021. Both vaccines utilize messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Prospective vaccine recipients were told the risk of myocarditis was increased after vaccination, particularly after the second dose of the two-dose primary series.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
OBSERVATION – Pfizer committed fraud and both they and the FDA know it. Seems FDA positioning itself to pin blame on Pfizer, knowing the swamp will protect it’s corrupted basis for approval.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>..
YOu have to be more current here.
Pfizer and the NWO are actually bent on population reduction. They are committing genocide in plain sight.You will never see any report. That cat is already out of the bag. Just look at mortician post mortem data here where gauzey fibrous structures that net blood plattelettes and cause clotting are removed from their intravenous locations. They plug up veins from receiving embalming fluid, and its what is killing thousands of people who are given false”heart attack” causes of death by physicians who know better.:
https://rumble.com/v1wac7i-world-premier-died-suddenly.html
THe CDC and Pfizer will never issue a true report, other than some form of CYA propaganda.The more bivalent boosters you take, sooner or later you will have this gauzey formation in your veins.
Thought I was pretty current, noting a lot about the population reduction goals of the WEF.
And yes, we won’t see a real report, too much at stake for the globalists.
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