Solid analysis—my only quibble is that I think inflation is much much more important than any other issue.
Nobody likes inflation—and even folks who don’t totally blame the Democrats for it consider them at least partially responsible.
Attempts to focus on other issues were always doomed to failure imho.
Trafalger has been very accurate the last 3-4 cycles. Correctly called Trump in 2016. Nailed the VA Governor race last year, only being off .3, and had NJ dem governor by 4 (it ended up being 3), when everyone else had the Dem winning double digits.
His final PA Senate poll has Oz by 2.2%, and Governor tighened to about 4.
The reality is that Republicans also have some responsibility for inflation. It was irresponsible to keep interest rates this low for this long. A lot of that was under obama, but not all of it.