Replies

1. There’s no “again”. The vaunted “Kharkov offensive” was undertaken after (and because of) a Russian tactical withdrawal that left a token force that itself was quickly withdrawn once the offensive started. The “mighty AFU” moved into empty space and suffered a brutal artillery and areospace bombardment and may have suffered as many casualties as in Kherson. The RF losses were minimal. So, no “again”.

2. There is also no “again” in Liman. Some sources say the losses by the AFU in its many unsuccessful attempts to take Liman exceed Kherson. What is sure is that they are substantial. As for “fire control”, I’ll take the Military Summary Channel as a better source than yours, although no source is infallible. MSC says the road and other means of egress are still viable IF there is a need. MSC thinks the final battle for Liman is on now since the AFU is conducting night attacks. Some sources say that elements of the Wagner Group have moved in and that the AFU is again failing. But we will see.

Of course, lost in this little drama is the fact that Izyum and Liman are of no strategic importance. The RF withdrew from Kharkov because they concluded that attacking Slavyansk from the Izyum bridgehead wasn’t worth the cost involved in clearing “Sherwood Forest”. So, they withdrew, established as easily defensible line, and severely bled the AFU, which was performing for its Western sponsors. I doubt that Zaluzhny recommended either the southern or northern “offensives”.

It is also interesting that this minor battle around Liman is getting so much press, yet the increaingly desperate situation of the AFU in central Donbass, especially Bahkmut, is being ignored.

Liman may fall or not. Looked at as a whole, Liman doesn’t matter much. The AFU is running out of ammunition, machines (Slovenia had to send 28 T 55s), and other weapons. The RF army is poised on the border to move, and I don’t think the trolls and Tards will like the result. His Fraudulency, President Depends, needs to avoid an AFU collapse before the mid-terms and to maintain the illusion that the Zelensky regime is doing well. If President avoids an embarrassment like Afghanistan before the elections, it won’t be by much.