If the UA does not take Svatove and Starobil’s’k to the north, then the Russians will have two major rail supply points free to supply the remainder of troops in Zaporizhya and Eastern Kherson Oblasts.
I don’t disagree with your point.
Rather I think the northeast in Ukraine because its right next to the russian border is less defensible than the south and southwest ukraine which is away from the russian border.If there is a choice between grabbing easily defensible land and hard to defend land—the better option is grabbing the easily defensible land first. Go for the lands in the east last.
The Russians just announced that they had annexed the land they had seized. that means that even if the ukes push the russians out of all the lands they have seized the war will not be over. the war has turned into a war of attrition.
who will run out of resources first.
I don’t think it wise to assume that ukraine will have access to western money and weaponry indefinitely; Zelensky just applied for nato membership. smart move on his part. But all NATO already understands the consequences of letting in Ukraine. I would not be surprised to see NATO turn him down.I think formal NATO rules prevent countries from joining NATO if they don’t have settled borders.
its likely the republicans will take over the congress in november. the first thing they’ll do is turn off the financial spigots to ukraine. the biden administration will have some optional funding to keep things going for a time but that will run out.
right now ukraine is at peak western funding and weapons supplies. they should use it to greatest advantage.
They should be grabbing the easiest pickings and the most defensible lands. both the easiest pickings and the most defensible lands are in the south and southwest.
In fact, if the Ukes can take Melitopol—kherson immediatly becomes indefensible for the Russians. they have to get to the east side of the dneiper. Once they do that, the 30k Uke troops on the Kherson front become freed up for other duties....say in the northeast.
its crazy to have 30 uke troops pinned down in kherson while the 5k uke troops are trying to take the entire northeast.