Your last line is closer to the truth than anyone is willing to admit: “Breaking news: No one knows what they’re taking about.”
A part of my mind takes COL, Rtd, MacGregor as stating a point of view that must be kept in mind, whether or not we agree with it. Another part sees him as one of those who said that Gen George Washington and the American “colonies” had already lost the American Revolutionary War after defeats in 1776 and that “clearly” the South had won the American Civil War after its victories in 1862 & 1863.
Putin thought he would get a quick victory, but the Ukrainians surprised him and now both sides are in for the long fight.
Lot’s of people “know what they are talking about.” Here is actual up to date battlefront info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-tyEbRK8_Po
Ukraine has lost east Ukraine & Crimea. If Russia goes after the remainder of the southern coast, then they are focused on defeating the rest of Ukraine. If not, then they aren’t.