“They’re on the brink now. Their farmland is exhausted due to poor management, their people are abused and will revolt eventually. I’m thinking they have to start a war.”
I think you might be right. China is strong, but its strength is...fragile.
And they are at their peak-strength now. Looking to future, their demographic bomb will erode their power. They have their 200M excess young-males right now. They have a weakened USA with COVID+Biden. They know they will get a Republican in ‘24. They know USN is as small as its ever going to be in the China-Era. They know USAF has smallest number of 5th gen it will ever have right now. They know USAF and USN air are oldest and creakiest they are going to be in the ChinaEra. They know our fast-reaction gear has been shipped to Ukraine and has 3 year lead time. They know we are over run with illegals, criminals, and drugs like never before, and that will all start to get better in ‘24.
They are at their relative strongest. We are at our relative weakest. And those dynamics will shift in our favor with every passing F-35 that rolls off the line.
They know if they take Taiwan, they get global chip supremacy for 5 to 10 years. But if they wait, the fabs in continental USA will come on line, and USA will take it.
And they know that domestically they must unwind a debt bomb of 1/3 of their GDP in the real estate ponzi schemes. They will be facing riotous mobs who lost their entire life savings.