Ukraine: military situation update with maps, May 14, 2022
(’Orc ‘is associated with the various hoards of Mongol invaders, as well as LOTR evil villains)
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
**denotes transcribed dialogue
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Bonus:
Ukraine Military intelligence chief, Major General Kyrylo Budanov: told Sky News defeat in Ukraine would lead to the removal of Russia’s leader and the country’s disintegration.
“It will eventually lead to the change of leadership of the Russian Federation. This process has already been launched and they are moving into that way.”
Does that mean a coup is under way?
“Yes,” he responded.
“They are moving in this way and it is impossible to stop it.”
He claimed Mr Putin is in a “very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick”.
The Russian leader has cancer and other illnesses, he says.
He dismissed suggestions he was spreading propaganda as part of the information war and was certain of his claims.
“It’s my job, it’s my work, if not me who will know this?”
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-military-intelligence-chief-optimistic-of-russian-defeat-saying-war-will-be-over-by-end-of-year-12612320
Other links to same story:
Kremlin coup rumours growing in Moscow: Disgruntled generals join FSB (‘Siloviki’) looking to oust Putin and end Ukraine war
https://www.cityam.com/kremlin-on-high-alert-as-coup-rumours-grow-in-moscow-disgruntled-generals-join-fsb-looking-to-oust-putin-and-end-ukraine-war/
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****Artillery (key to success in this war), Fuller explanation of Orc military structure, Other Bonus articles - see previous postings in “Attack on Europe” (FR title search).
Watch: UAV records how M777A2 + Excalibur destroys Russian 152mm SPG
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/05/12/watch-uav-records-how-m777a2-excalibur-destroys-russian-152mm-spg/
Watch: Ukraine made custom mobile 4×4 station to launch (the British) Brimstone SSMs
https://bulgarianmilitary.com/amp/2022/05/15/watch-ukraine-made-custom-mobile-4x4-station-to-launch-brimstone-ssms/
Ukraine Might Get (the German) IRIS-T SLM Surface-To-Air Missile System: Reports
The deal could provide Ukraine with its first advanced western air defense system that would fill a role similar to that of the SA-11 Buk.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-might-get-german-iris-t-slm-medium-range-sam-system-reports
Russia Fires World’s Biggest Laser-Guided Mortar Round In Ukraine
Huge Smel’chak laser-guided mortars are being lobbed at Ukrainian fighters still holed up in the Azovstal steel plant.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-fires-worlds-biggest-laser-guided-mortar-rounds-in-ukraine
Impressive video of WWI trench warfare in Ukraine. 3.34 minutes
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1525556432959070208
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**DPR and LPR troops not allowed into Russia - will be shot if they try.
**Russian Oil Production and What Happened.
Peak oil production before war was 10.15 MMB/D, will be 9.8 MMB/D in May.
Expected to drop to 7.5 MMB/D in July/August/September time frame.
Likely to have impact on Oil Price. Current prices will sty high or go higher; with increased inflation.
Interest rates will go up to fight inflation, pushing world economy toward recession.
Summary: Quiet day
- no major action today
**WWI meat grinder stye fighting
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead - no changes.
- Lyman bridgehead
- no changes today or yesterday.
- Bilogorivka bridgehead: destroyed
1. Kharkiv: Ukrainian troops are slowly pushing Russian side out - no changes today.
**Buffer being held by screening troops.
Donbas Salient:
2. Izyum bridgehead. It is extremely dangerous penetration by Russian troops that potentially could lead to large pocket for Ukrainian troops west of Donetsk. No changes today.
**UA 14th B, 93 B, 81 B. 79 B beaten down.
3. Lyman bridgehead. No changes today.
Severodonetsk Salient:
4. Popasna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Russian troops captured all of Rubizhne. Russian mercenaries - Wagner Group operates in Popasna, also Russian 57 brigade operates there as well. Confirmed capture of Popasna by Russian troops. Russian troops advanced north of Popasna to village Komyshevakha. No new advances today.
**UA 7th Motorized Infantry, 58th MI (refreshed), 80th Air Assault, and 128th Mountain Infantry, Also 17 TB, 56 MI, 57 MI, 46 B in reserve.
**~100 Orc armored vehicles destroyed at attempted bridging. No chance of Orc success
**Orcs might have success taking Severodonetsk
5. West of Donetsk: Avidyivka and Maryinka. Avdiyivaka - never ending attempts of the Russian side to break-through there. Russian troops captured all of or portion of Novobahmutivka.
**Orc capture of Novobahmutivka only progress for the day.
** Avidyivka has coal plant
6. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands. No changes today.
** Vugledar being shelled
7. Velyka Novosilka - Gulyapole stretch of frontline. Ukrainian strongholds are towns of Gulyaypole and village of Velyka Novosilka. Russian 19D is operating there. Russian troops are consolidating their gains.
Also, 42D has been spotted in the area. Russian troops caputred village Vremivka attached to Velyka Novosilka from west and separate by small river.
The most northern group of Russian troops has been stopped before village of Vilne Pole. Ukranian side brought its 128 brigade and regiment Azov Kyiv to stop Russian advance there. No changes today.
**Balance of power about equal.
**Vilne Pole heavy shelling
8. Kherson bridgehead: no changes.
**Orcs on strategic defensive, protect Kherson and the fresh water supply for Crimea
“Ukrainian soldier says that the Ukrainian side used freshly delivered American M777 howitzers to smash 70+ Russian military vehicles to pieces as they tried to cross the Siverskyi Donets River on May 9th.”
https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1525677618053324802
The battle of Kharkiv has been won by #Ukraine, with Russian forces withdrawing to the north & east. Today, analysis on what is next for Ukraine’s military as it exploits a faltering Russian eastern offensive. 1/25
2/ The war in the east, and the war in #Ukraine more generally, is approaching an important turning point.
3/ The Ukrainian success in the battle for Kharkiv is significant. It sees the recapture of Ukrainian territory and will ensure the city is out of Russian field artillery range. These are important humanitarian & political achievements for #Ukraine.
4/ It also gives the Ukrainian Army another huge morale & confidence boost. As they did in the north, they have shown again that they can defend, and then go on the offensive to recapture their land from the Russians. They continue to out-think and out-fight the Russian Army.\
5/ Despite the Russians recently reorienting their operational design on eastern Ukraine as its main effort, they have yet to make significant gains. Indeed, they have been fought to a near standstill by the Ukrainians.
6/ Not only are the Russians in trouble in the east, but the entire Russian campaign in Ukraine is also close to culminating. I would highlight – this is not the same as a Russian defeat. It just means that Russia may shortly be unable to conduct offensive operations.
7/ Russia, theoretically, might construct some last gasp offensive out of Crimea or elsewhere in the south. But this would be akin to the WW2 German Ardennes Offensive – tactically dangerous for a short time but ultimately operationally and strategically futile.
8/ Ukraine now has several options for what they might do in the wake of success in the Battle of Kharkiv. Issues such as forces available, logistics, air support and geography will be important. But there are probably two over-riding considerations: timing & exploitation limits.
9/ Timing. The Ukrainians got their timing just right for their north east offensive around Kharkiv. Now, they have to pick the right moment for a potential wider counter offensive in the east.
10/ This means they must balance continued attrition of the Russians during their current offensive and attacking a culminated Russian force before they can establish a well-developed scheme of defensive maneuver in the east.
11/ The region to the east of Kharkiv is vulnerable to a Ukrainian advance. Not only are the majority of Russian forces further south and east of this area, seizing this region (to the east of the Donets) poses a threat to ground supply routes for Russia’s eastern offensive.
12/ It will be an attractive option for Ukraine. While the ground is better suited for the defender (Russia), it is always better fight over the worst ground than through the greatest concentration of enemy. This, in many respects, has been Ukraine’s approach throughout the war.
13/ By attacking Russian rear areas, weakly defended locations and logistic hubs / convoys, the Ukrainians have forced Russian withdrawals in the north and northeast.
14/ While Russian forces in the east are stronger than those faced in the north and northeast, any interference with their supply lines will have a significant impact on Russian combat operations on the Izium axis of advance.
15/ Of course, Ukrainian success in any offensive is not guaranteed. Operational outcomes range from a Russian collapse followed by withdrawal; they fight each other to a standstill, followed by stalemate; or, potentially, a Ukrainian defeat. In war there are no certainties.
16/ Summarising, Ukraine doesn’t have a lot of time to assemble the forces & support if they are to conduct another counter offensive in the east. They have to strike before the Russians shift to a defensive posture. The Russians will be much harder to push back if that occurs.
17/ Exploitation limits. There has been speculation about how far the Ukrainians might carry their offensives. In particular, might the Ukrainians advance on Belgorod in Russia? This is probably unlikely for several reasons.
18/ First, the Ukrainians have already proved that they can out fight, outthink and defeat the Russian Army. They don’t need to go into Russia to re-prove that.
19/ 2nd, President Zelensky has gained global influence as President of a country that has been invaded. For him to engage in similar behaviour would have an impact on his influence in the outside world.
20/ 3rd, as Russia has found, invading another country is much harder than defending your own. The motivation for soldiers ‘invading’ another country is different to the motivation when defending one’s own nation. The Ukrainians are clever enough to understand this.
21/ Finally, any Ukrainian incursion into Russia would (for Putin) validate the sense of external existential threat that Russia is under, and that Putin described in his Victory Day speech. The Ukrainian President (as well as the US & NATO) would want to avoid this.
22/ Within Ukraine’s borders, do they seek to only recapture ground taken by Russia since 24 February, or something more? The Ukrainian President will balance reclaiming Ukrainian territory, retaining Western support & not pushing the Russians to us
23/ A window of opportunity is opening for Ukrainian operational design in the east. While defending the Kharkiv region they have just re-secured, they may be able to conduct an operational level strike across the Donets and into the rear of Russia’s axis of advance on Izium.e chem / nuclear weapons.
24/ With their recent experience, home ground advantage & western support, there is no one in the world better at making such a decision than the Ukrainian high command. It will be their decisions, not Russia’s, that could result in an important turning point in this war. End