Ukraine: military situation update with maps, April 27, 2022
War in Ukraine
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCP2QApi8G2TKc8NZmeDWSUg/videos
**Overview:
**More and intense attacks (4) on Russian soil last night in the North and East to make the Russian people understand there is a war and to the disrupt RGF supplies. Not all successful.
**Russia will retaliate agains military and civilian decision makers - will be attacks on Kiev
••Starting now and for the next two weeks, most of the units that were damaged in the Kiev attack will be replenished. Enough for one more attempt to destroy the UA; failing, they will need to call up conscripts.
**RGF will be desperate to capture the Donbas area. Right now the RGF in the Kharkiv area are defensive. So the Izyum region south is the focus
**Capture of those regions will the Russians hope make Ukraine surrender or sue for peace on Russian terms.
Summary:
Key areas:
- Izyum bridgehead - successful Russian attack to capture back village of Zavody, also captured village of Velyka Kamyshevakha.
- Russian troops are slowly mopping up corner between Oskil and Siverskiy Donets rivers controlled by Ukrainian side before.
- Attack on Orikhiv, fighting in the town. Unclear outcome of the attack, potentially captured by Russian troops.
1. Kharkiv: positional fighting, heavy shelling by Russian troops.
**Some units of the UA 93rd is in the north, but most are in the Izyum area and suffering heavy casualties.
2. Izyum bridgehead: Russian troops captured village of Velyka Komyshuvakha on the western side of the bridgehead. It is extremely dangerous penetration by Russian troops that potentially could lead to large pocket for Ukrainian troops west of Donetsk. New reinforcement on the bridgehead - 2 battalions from 76 Airborne Division.
**RGF looking for easy way to break out of bridge head - have taken a couple more towns. Steadily pushing UA back.
3. Popasna, Rubizhne and Severodonetsk. Russian troops captured majority of Rubizhne. Popasna is about 70-80% captured by Russian troops. Russian mercenaries - Wagner Group operates in Popasna, also Russian 57 brigade operates there as well.
**No Change. UA slowly sending military unit s from center of country. Shows unit losses are high.
4. West of Donetsk: Avidyivka and Maryinka. Avdiyivaka - never ending attempts of the Russian side to break-through there.
**No Change.
5. Vugledar is in Ukrainian hands.
6. Deep Russian penetration towards village of Zelene Pole near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian strongholds are towns of Gulyaypole and Orikhiv, village of Velyka Novosilka. Russian 19D is operating there. Russian troops are consolidating their gains today. Also, 42D has been spotted in the area.
7. Russian attack on town of Orikhiv with potential capture of it.
**Southern UA front not going to hold much longer. Heavy attacks with all forces available.
**International Volunteers Legion lost two US fighters in anti-tank brigade. Both badly wounded.
8. Mariupol: skipped
9. Mykolayiv: positional fighting, exchange of attacks to improve tactical positions, shelling.
**Russian just defending.
**VKF shooting unguided rockets and missiles from long distances - 20-30 miles because of UA anti-air defenses. Becoming less precise and more inefficient.
“Moscow is practically forcing Berlin to shift away from Russian energy while Germany increases military spending by tens of billions of euros. Pretty sure we’re looking at one of the greatest political blunders since the end of the Cold War.”
The Russians seem to have learned from the first 2 months of the war and are going much slower and being more methodical.
It seems they tried to copy much of our Iraq invasion, from “shock and awe” to “maneuver warfare” to advanced combined arms. They even copied Bush’s “De-Ba’athification” and “most wanted” playing cards. This was the Russian military’s coming out party as a “Great Power”. Having failed terribly, they are going back to what they know.
Once the war is over, will they try again to achieve the high tech combined arms competencies the US and NATO excel at? Such failures against a peer or superior force would not go well.