Was under the weather yesterday. Still a little yucky feeling but wanted to get this out so as not to get buried.
LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Climate czar Kerry said, “it would be great if there were some” U.S. taxpayer money to pay other countries climate reparations.
“Is there going to have to be US taxpayer money that helps the United States, presumably the United States is going to have to be one of the nations that contributes to…” Washington Post editor Sally Buzbee asked John Kerry.
“It would be great if it were some, I mean the United States of America proudly is the largest humanitarian donor in the world,” John Kerry said
OBSERVATION – As noted many times before, the global warming scam is setting itself up as one of the greatest redistribution of wealth schemes ever.
Wuhan virus –
HISTORICAL NOTE - 3 years ago today: 3 people in Wuhan start to feel sick and are later found to have COVID-19. The new virus is spreading with now at least 4 confirmed cases, 3 weeks before the alarm is raised
A critically-ill six-month-old baby will be placed under the temporary guardianship of New Zealand’s High Court after his parents refused to allow him to undergo lifesaving heart surgery using blood from people vaccinated against Covid-19.
Handing down the judgment on Wednesday, Justice Ian Gault ruled that the boy, who cannot be identified for legal reasons, would remain under the court’s guardianship until he had recovered from the surgery.
The court also appointed two doctors as its agents to oversee issues around the operation and the administration of blood, according to court documents.
OBSERVATION - The New Zealand government, headed by WEF cut-out Jacinda Ardern, has executed some of the harshest penalties and decision seen across the globe from a so called ‘free’ country.
The fight over the source of blood used in medical procedutes (vax’d vs unvaxed) is increasingly becoming more of an issue as uncertainty and corresponding refusal by the medical establishment to examine any potential adverse affects from the nRNA jab components being transferred via transfusions or not.
Economy –
Eyes on the fed this next week. The US Federal Reserve is poised to slow its interest rate hikes next week, economists say, as central bankers’ most forceful moves in decades to fight inflation ripple through the economy.
But the half-point jump analysts expect to see in the Fed’s benchmark lending rate will still be a steep rise, as it struggles to cool demand in the United States to bring consumer costs down.
The decision will be announced after a two-day meeting of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) starting Tuesday.
Policy makers are keeping a close eye on wage growth, given concerns that higher salaries will add to inflation pressures.
“The strong jobs market, rising wages and the strong household balance sheet... are key areas of support” for demand, said economist James Knightley of ING.
Household wealth has increased by $30 trillion since the start of the pandemic, he noted, allowing consumers to dip into their savings as the cost of living spiked.
OBSERVATION - “Household wealth has increased by $30 trillion since the start of the pandemic” Where does the Fed get this number considering the following MORE RELATED
MORE RELATED - U.S. household wealth fell by $400 billion in the third quarter as a drop in U.S. stock prices outpaced gains in real estate values, a Federal Reserve report showed Friday.
Household net worth declined to $143.3 trillion at the end of September from $143.7 trillion at the end of June, the Fed’s quarterly snapshot of the national balance sheet showed. It was the third consecutive quarter household wealth has declined.
OBSERVATION – This report throws cold water on the claim by the Fed that there are “strong household balance sheet(s)” in the economy. These are huge drops in this so called balance sheet. So the Fed is feeding conflicting data – but the one that will bite consumers is the increase in the prime rate. Even a half point rise is significant and may not give the inflation rate a pause they want given that the wholesale prices rose 0.3% last month
MORE RELATED - November’s producer price index report showed wholesale prices rise 0.3% last month and 7.4% year-over-year, topping the estimated 0.2% gain economists polled by Dow Jones expected.
OVERALL FED OBSERVATIONS – Mixed forecasts regarding the development of a recession in 2023 as well as to how deep. Fed friendly sources suggest the so called “soft landing” with little to no recession breaking out. Other economists (as well as m any businesses – see BlackRock below) are anticipating a severe global recession.
Nearly one year has passed since the baby formula shortage began impacting America’s kids and parents — and the issue may not end this year. A new report by Reckitt Benckiser, the maker of Enfamil, indicates shortages are expected to persist until at least the spring of 2023.
OBSERVATION – Third world countries have formula on the shelves, and now over a year and we can’t get our supplies up.
According to Blackrock a worldwide recession is just around the corner as central banks boost borrowing costs aggressively to tame inflation — and this time, it will ignite more market turbulence than ever before.
The global economy has already exited a four-decade era of stable growth and inflation to enter a period of heightened instability — and the new regime of increased unpredictability is here to stay, according to the world’s biggest asset manager.
That means policymakers will no longer be able to support markets as much as they did during past recessions, a team of BlackRock strategists led by vice chairman Philipp Hildebrand wrote in a report titled 2023 Global Outlook.
“Recession is foretold as central banks race to try to tame inflation. It’s the opposite of past recessions,” they said. “Central bankers won’t ride to the rescue when growth slows in this new regime, contrary to what investors have come to expect. Equity valuations don’t yet reflect the damage ahead.”
This is not good news when companies are laying off, inflation is at 40-year-highs and Americans are building up credit card debt while most businesses are behind on their heating bills already.
OBSERVATION – interesting coming from WEF’s ESG hatchet boys at BlackRock. Naturally, with their tons of assets any recession would que up their purchases of assets at fire sale prices.
Invasion of Illegals –
The Biden administration says it will appeal the court ruling that invalidated the Trump-era Title 42 border restrictions. As it stands, the administration will be required to stop expelling migrants under Title 42 in two weeks, on Dec. 21. Wait, what.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Twitter files synopsis to date
Part 1 - documents how senior Twitter executives violated their own policies to prevent the spread of accurate information about Hunter Biden’s laptop;
Part 2, - shows how senior Twitter execs created secret blacklists to “de-amplify” disfavored Twitter users, not just specific tweets – ie shadow banning. Jack Dorsey told Congress under oath Twitter was not shadow-banning. Dorsey also testified he didn’t know about the other activities being conducted - twitter files show that he was aware and ‘on board’
Part 3, - documents how senior Twitter execs censored tweets by Trump in the run-up to the Nov 2020 election while regularly engaging with representatives of U.S. government law enforcement agencies. Particularly the FBI.’s involvement in censorship.
PART 4 The Removal of Donald Trump: January 7 As the pressure builds, Twitter executives build the case for a permanent ban
OBSERVATION – One of the key culprits coming to the forefront is a Yoel Roth, reportedly an ex-marine intelligence officer and former employee/contractor to the FBI and CIA. Roth played a key connection to FBI/CIA demands for censorship.
Roth is also under scrutiny as the key player in blocking efforts at twitter to remove child trafficking and sexual exploitation posters from Twitter. He even wrote in his pHD thesis that is should be OK for students and teachers to hook up.
The whole twitter world story coming out is like a dystopian novel that gets increasingly more disgusting.
POLITICAL FRONT –
This congressional term is winding down. Biggest issue is a potential continuing resolution to push it through to the end of next year. This would effectively block a republican house from influencing the budget for half of the next session.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
A string of attacks on power facilities in Oregon and Washington has caused alarm and highlighted the vulnerabilities of the US electric grid.
The attacks in the Pacific north-west come just days after a similar assault on North Carolina power stations that cut electricity to 40,000 people.
As first reported by Oregon Public Broadcasting and KUOW Public Radio, there have been at least six attacks, some of which involved firearms and caused residents to lose power. Two of the attacks shared similarities with the incident in Moore county, North Carolina, where two stations were hit by gunfire. Authorities have not yet revealed a motive for the North Carolina attack.
The four Pacific north-west utilities whose equipment was attacked have said they are cooperating with the FBI. The agency has not yet confirmed if it is investigating the incidents.
OBSERVATION - Terrorism is one of the potential drivers for these ‘attacks’ Vandalism is also high on the list as well as attempts to steal copper, etc by tweakers to support their drug habit. Since no dates in comparison to the Moore County incident – hard to correlate if they are related. Not going into chicken little mode on this, but it is worth monitoring as it could give some elements ideas.
China –
The Department of Energy (DoE) bragging about a new $200 million grant that was given to a lithium battery company called Microvast, the claim being that it will help to expand domestic sources of green energy. The problem is that Microvast “primarily” operates in communist China.
Despite claiming to be based in Texas, Microvast conducts most of its business overseas in the world’s largest dictatorship. The Biden regime conveniently failed to mention this in touting the “bipartisan,” taxpayer-funded cash payout as a supposed boon for domestic “green” energy expansion.
Microvast was recently added to a Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) watchlist of Chinese companies that are scheduled to be delisted from NASDAQ due to their failure to comply with United States auditing requirements under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act.
OBSERVATION – Stupid move or deliberate by the biden regime?
On Friday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping met Saudi Arabian leaders in that country, expressing his interest in using yuan to buy Persian Gulf generated gas and oil.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on said this was a “historic new phase of relations with China.” Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said “We don’t see this as a zero sum game,” over his country’s growing relationship with China, according to Reuters.
Chinese leadership has been moving to substitute its currency for the US dollar in the role of global trade, which would increase the communist country’s control of international markets and destabilize the American economic infrastructure both internationally and domestically.
OBSERVATION – China’s move to make the yuan competitive against the dollar on the global stage has been ongoing for some time now. Recent events like the Ukraine war and global market turmoil from wuhan has only increased China’s efforts to replace the dollar in key areas of the world. This is a direct threat to the petrodollar set up and if it causes any kind of collapse would hit the US hard.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
The Biden administration is accusing Russia of moving to provide advanced military assistance to Iran, including air defense systems, helicopters and fighter jets, part of deepening cooperation between the two nations as Tehran provides drones to support Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
NUKE WATCH -
Russian President Vladimir Putin has put out a statement saying that any country that dares attack Russia with nuclear weapons will be wiped from the face of the earth, and said he was considering adding the possibility of a nuclear first strike to disarm an enemy to Russia’s military doctrine.
This, after Putin had held a Televised Meeting with members of Russia’s Human Rights council saying that Russia wouldn’t use nuclear missiles unless it was first attacked. “We haven’t gone mad. We are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are. We have them, and they are more advanced and state-of-the-art than what any other nuclear power has,” he said during that interview.
Speaking in a video Putin said, “From our side, hundreds of our missiles will be in the air. It is impossible to stop them. But these are still retaliatory missiles.” He continued, “What does this mean? It means that it will happen if the fall of enemy missile warheads on Russian territory is inevitable. They will still fall, though nothing will remain of the enemy.” “And this of course, is a deterrent. A serious deterrent. Well, if the enemy considers it possible to use the theory of a preventive strike, but we do not, then it still makes us think about the threats that such ideas create for us for defense sectors of other countries. That is all,” he concluded.
OBSERVATION – Confusion earlier that suggested that putin was walking back the nuclear threats. However, better translations of his talk indicate that while there may be a slight pull back specifically to Ukraine, he is looking to be far more aggressive in establishing a first strike policy.
RUMINT –
Putin allegedly fell at his mansion, injuring his tail bone among other things. He reportedly had surgery to address the injuries. Story may be cover for a more serious procedure linked to the suspected cancer he is said to have.
Logistics –
- Iran has become Russia’s go to source for drones and potentially missiles, after having depleted its stockpiles.
Russian Personnel Issues –
- Chechen forces are taking an increasingly higher profile role in the occupied regions by providing security and the ‘muscle’ to enforce Russian dictates to the Ukrainian people.
Economic Impact –
- US “imposing sanctions on three Russian entities connected to Moscow’s growing military relationship with Tehran – a relationship that includes the transfer of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) from Iran,” according to a statement from SecState Blinken
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast
RUMINT – Reportedly, the US has given Ukraine free reign to target Russian bases with long range weapons systems. This alleged ‘permission’ preceded the drone attacks on Russian airbases last week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia resumed using Iranian drones in its attacks, believed to have resolved the issue of failures due to cold weather. One main target was Odessa where 15 drones were launched and Ukraine managed to shoot down 10. The remaining 5 targeted the power grid. Other cities in southern Ukraine were also targeted.
Russia has launched a significant frontal assault against Bakhmut, gained some ground but is still unable to enter the city. Analysis suggests that putin is in a hurry to get a victory and is bypassing a slower envelopment attack for a direct, frontal assault. Russian forces have reportedly been beefed up using elements withdrawn from Kherson and the recent mobilization to support the assault. The Bakhmut battle has also received the priority for available Russian artillery support, locally gaining levels last seen in the past spring.
Ukraine launched significant long ranged attacks since the last report. One being Melitopol where a major troop concentration was leveled. Also hit Sevastopol airport and other sites in occupied Ukraine.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
According to the several sources about 200 Russian servicemen were in the destroyed facility in Melitopol. It seems Russian forces occupied a sprawling, resort like complex complete with spa, relaxing fountain, and cable TV. Unclear how long they were housed there.
Videos posted on social media note the intensity of the damage along with the strike.
Crimean front ———
NSR
Sevastopol, an explosion near the airport.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
Resistance/SOF elements likely supplied the real time intel for the Melitopol strike.
OUTLOOK ——
OSINT and other analysts are noting that Russia is pushing spoiling attacks along the eastern front as a means to delay the expected Ukrainian continuation of its offensive once the ground freezes again. The influx of mobilized conscripts are being essentially thrown into the battles around Savtove – Kreminna line as well as Bakhmut and Dontesk fights. Russia seems willing to suffer high casualities in order to delay the continuation of Ukraine’s attacks in the east – hoping to buy time to put together a better force that could resume the offense into the Donbas region.
This high casualty tactic would seem to be counter productive at the current without initiating another mobilization geared to create a better trained and motivated force. Currently, all reports are that these mobiliees are next to worthless – creating a goat rope for the remnants of existing units as they try to integrate them into some kind of a cohesive unit.
Russia’s resumption of the drone wars may well result in NATO/US providing even longer ranged weapons. This escalation will not work well for Russia who has the weaker and exposed logistics system along with the tendency to mass troops withing range of Ukrainian weapons. This increase in long range weapons system could be further justified by the targeting so far of the Ukrainian power grid – considered to be a war crime by the west.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Serbia to ask NATO peacekeeping mission in Kosovo to allow it to deploy Serbian military and police troops in Kosovo, Serbia’s president Vucic says - Reuters
OBSERVATION – NATO and Kosovan police are blocking access from Serbia. Vucic should know that his desire to usurp Kosovo’s sovergnity would get a big no.
Israel –
See Lebanon below on Iranian smuggling.
Iran –
Protests continue across the country. Farideh Moradkhani, a niece of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and an outspoken critic of the Islamic Republic, has been sentenced to three years in prison, her lawyer said on Friday, according to Al Arabiya. Moradkhani was arrested last month after she declared her support for the ongoing anti-regime protests in Iran and called on the international community to cut ties with Tehran.
The Biden administration is accusing Russia of moving to provide advanced military assistance to Iran, including air defense systems, helicopters and fighter jets, part of deepening cooperation between the two nations as Tehran provides drones to support Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
See Lebanon below on smuggling attempts into that country.
Lebanon -
Israel has warned Lebanon that it could bomb Beirut’s international airport, according to one Saturday report, after an earlier report claimed Iran had recently transferred weaponry to the Hezbollah terror group via civilian flights.
Asharq Al-Awsat, an Arabic-language newspaper published in London, cited unidentified Israeli political sources as saying Israel was investigating claims by the Saudi-funded al-Arabiya network that Iran recently smuggled weapons through Beirut International Airport.
According to Asharq Al-Awsat, Israel has warned the Lebanese government that it could strike the airport if it is indeed used for smuggling attempts.
OBSERVATION – Iran / Hezbollah essentially run the country and can do what it wants. Hezbollah missile facility is rumored to exist near the airport. Though Israel would prefer to avoid striking Lebanese targets, they can and will if necessary.
Saudi Arabia -
See discussions with China to purchase oil using the yuan.
Syria -
Turkish forces bombarded with sites belonging to the Pro-Assad forces forces in the areas of Jishan, Goran, and Marj Ismail in the countryside of Kobane, east of Aleppo.
OBSERVATION – No significant ground assault by Turkey into Kurdish regions of Syria and Iraq. Currently using artillery and air strikes.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
Public executions by the Taliban have resumed for the first time since the US and allies left the country.
Mexico -
This is a category I’ve been working to gain a better understanding of. The cartels have been engaged in a significant fight with each other lately, in part to get a piece of the uncontrolled flow of illegals and drugs into the US. There are dozens of these cartels/gangs. The Mexican govt has been almost constantly using its military to go into these battle areas to put down/capture fighters.
Central / South America General-
Evidence coming out that twitter was twisted to support the current leftist president of Brazil’s win in the recent election there.
LOOKING FOR SUBMISSIONS AS TO THE KEY EVENTS OF 2022 FOR A YEAR END WRAP UP.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The World Economic Forum has recently launched a controversial new initiative that will have animal rights activists up in arms.
The WEF is now calling for millions of cats and dogs worldwide to be slaughtered in an effort to reduce the “carbon pawprint” they produce as a result of eating meat.
The WEF is encouraging mainstream media outlets to begin pushing the narrative, wants to introduce an international policy that would require the majority of pet owners to euthanize their animals.
OBSERVATION – Such is the utopian vision of our overlords.
New storm on the horizion being telegraphed?
The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security partnered with the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to conduct “Catastrophic Contagion,” an exercise to simulate a global pandemic that is deadlier than the coronovirus and especially dangerous for children. Bill Gates was in attendance.
The group conducted Catastrophic Contagion in Brussels, Belgium on October 23, 2022. During the simulation, the World Health Organization’s health advisory board addressed a fictional “Severe Epidemic Enterovirus Respiratory Syndrome” pandemic that originates in Brazil and disseminates across the globe. The exercise simulated a series of WHO emergency health advisory board meetings addressing a fictional pandemic set in the near future.
According to RXList, enteroviruses, including hepatitis A and polio, are comprised of RNA, enter the body through the gastrointestinal tract and attack the nervous system.
The pandemic simulation also included pre-recorded news broadcasts and live briefings from health officials. This is similar to earlier simulations. A pundit named Jeanne Meserve of GNN, a fictional news outlet, is seen in footage from the pandemic simulation announcing the high death toll, particularly among children, from the pandemic that would have been prevented if countries adopted pandemic operational drills and adhered to the WHO’s pandemic guidances.
OBSERVATION – This is raising serious red flags. Children were largely spared under the wuhan plandemic, so this next ‘plandemic’ targets them.
ALSO NOTE last line “pandemic that would have been prevented if countries adopted pandemic operational drills and adhered to the WHO’s pandemic guidances.” This IMHO is a direct reference to the changes the WHO is trying to weasel in granting them superconstitutional authority to dictate protocols and treatments in the event of another plandemic.
Although this is a virus and antibiotics are useless against it, antibiotics are critical to fight infections that come about as a result of the infection - like pneumonia. And there is an ongoing global antibiotic shortage
Something wicked this way comes . . . . .
Economy –
SUMMARY –
According to Department of Labor producer price index data, vegetable wholesale prices jumped 38% from October to November. This is a continued sign of rising food prices, which should be evident in tomorrow’s Consumer Price Index release.
The “Critical Mineral Independence Act of 2022” proposed by Senators Romney (R-UT) and Sullivan (R-AK) would direct the U.S. to expand critical mineral mining and processing domestically and among allied countries, with the goal of reaching supply chain independence by 2027.
OBSERVATION – No way on God’s green earth can we attain ‘supply chain independence by 2027’. First hurdle is all the permitting required – that alone will take most of the four years to do. Second is fighting off environmental challenges to these projects as they will look for what ever yellow bellied zit picker or green, frilly frog choker they can find to stop the mines. Then it takes time for the mines to construct support and processing facilities.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said she believes the U.S. economy can avoid a recession. Yellen said that she believes the U.S. is on the right track lowering inflation. Yellen said during an interview with CBS Sunday that there is a risk of recession, but it is not necessary to decrease inflation.
OBSERVATION – I cannot accept this woman’s judgement on the economy after her mantra of ‘transitory’ inflation. Her statement is more like trying to keep the masses calmed before the storm hits.
Congressional democrats are pushing the “Use It Or Lose It Act Of 2022,” which would impose a $10 per acre fee on non-producing federal leases.
OBSERVATION – Democrat left is building the narrative that big oil is the real cause of all the high priced fuel in the country. Using that narrative, they want to use bills like this to undercut the industry even more to pave the way for eventually killing it.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Blue states of Oregon, Conneticut, Michigan, Illinois and others are ramping up efforts to ban certain kinds of guns. For the most part, the banning focuses on the so-called “assault weapon” types.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
The next ‘Twitter Files’ release may well be targeted towards Fauci and the silencing of contrary views regarding the wuhan plandemic. Could be very enlightening and damning to Fauci and the rest of the henchmen at the CDC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Democrats are rushing to push their omnibus spending bill through Congress to fund the government for the next year, with only five days to go until the current budget runs out and a temporary shutdown ensues.
Negotiations over the annual spending bill stalled late last week as both sides disagree on how to keep the government running, with Democrats seeking to approve a bipartisan omnibus bill that would last until the fiscal year ends and Republicans pushing for a continuing resolution that would fund the government at the same levels until January. A growing number of GOP lawmakers have begun to push for the latter option, hoping to have more of an influence once they take control of the House next Congress.
OBSERVATION – Increasing chance of a short term CR, yielding to republican demands to address it with a house majority.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Bomber of the Lockerbie airline disaster reportedly has been captured.
China –
China and India got into another scrape over the weekend. Top sources confirmed to The Tribune that a clash occurred between the two sides along the disputed section of the Line of Actual Control in the hill states. There have been injuries to some Indian soldiers. There are no reports of any deaths. This is the first physical clash between the two armies since August 2020 near Rinchen La in eastern Ladakh.
OBSERVATION – I couldn’t find out just what caused the incident. However, China has been constructing military supporting infrastructure in a lot of areas along the India-China border zone in the Himalayas. They have also been working to improve their capabilities to operate at those high elevations and harsh conditions.
India has been preparing for a potential conflict as well, adjusting miliary units and building more supportive infrastructure as well.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
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A Kremlin-linked neo-Nazi paramilitary group requested that its members provide any intelligence they have regarding the border and military activities of NATO member countries Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia, according to a Sunday report from The Guardian.
The report cites the “Task Force Rusich” Telegram channel, which is also linked to the Wagner group and is fighting against Ukrainian forces in their ongoing war with Russia since late February.
Observing activity from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania prompts the question of whether the neo-Nazi paramilitary group is planning attacks on other NATO countries.
OBSERVATION – Germany recently cracked down on an extremist nazi group. Nothing good will come from this.
RUMINT –
Russian President Vladimir Putin has canceled his annual end-of-year press conference for the first time in 10 years, the Kremlin announced on Monday. Some suspect it is due to continued health issues surrounding his recent operation following a fall down some stairs.
Economic Impact –
- Putin said his country was considering cutting oil production in response to EU and G7 price caps. The Russian president also indicated production cuts remained a possibility despite OPEC agreements, saying a final decision would be made in a few days.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Nasty mix of rain and snow throughout most of the 10 day forecast with cold temperatures.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian forces made marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut as Russian and Ukrainian sources reported continued fighting in the area.
More Ukranian advances northwest of kreminna.
Scattered Russian artillery strikes all along the LOC from Zaporizhzhia eastward past Svatove
HISTORICAL NOTE – Saw images of the 3d Guards Tank Army setting up staging areas from about this time last year - prior to the February invasion. Today, that unit is only a name, with it being hammered hard in the initial attack to try to take Kviv and finally decimated as a result of the Kharkiv offensive earlier this fall. The 3d GTA was one of the prestigious and well-equipped elements going into the war.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Ukraine forces continue to pressure the Russian lines NW of Svatove. Continued sporadic Russian artillery strikes along the border northeast of Kharkiv city.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.. Bakhmut is the primary, overall objective of the Russian army in the Donbas campaign.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery strikes on Kherson and vicinity
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory –
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
A Ukrainian partisan group claimed responsibility for setting fire to a Russian military barracks in Sovietske, Crimea.
OUTLOOK ——
Russia will continue to throw everything they have at capturing Bakhmut, gaining small amounts of ground at a horrific casualty rate. Some of the recent territory gains occurred when they attacked during a Ukrainian troop rotation. Photos/videos posted on social media show the area around Bakhmut looking like the WW1 fronts.
Weather will continue to play a key factor in battles, currently limiting armor support. It also limits the use of Iranian drones – don’t do well flying in winter storms, even after weatherization by Russia.
Moldova/Transnistria -
During the alliance’s ministerial conference in Bucharest, NATO officials announced an expansion of its support to Moldova. NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană said the alliance must do more to support “partners facing Russian pressure.”
OBSERVATION – this move will place some pressure on Russia as they control the Transnistria province bordering Ukraine. Russian miliary presence there has been drawn down in order to support the Ukraine war effort. There has been talk in Moldova of exploiting the shortage of Russian forces to retake portions of Transnistria on its own – perhaps even with Romanian help.
Belarus -
Tracking some movement of some Russian equipment south of Brest in the southwest corner of Belarus. Moving to a retaining area relatively close to the Ukrainian border. Not a lot but worth monitoring. military equipment are being redeployed closer to the border with Ukraine, including four trailers with T-80 tanks, mortar battery, communication vehicles and engineering equipment.
OBSERVATION – Size of this movement is very small, but could grow. Positioning is the opportunity to attack southward to Lviv and cut off resupply coming from Poland. With fall mud season at its peak, an attack would be ill advised.
Countries across Europe are reporting shortages of antibiotics as demand for the medicines rises and manufacturers grapple with supply-chain snags.
OBSERVATION – Same conditions as here in the US. See also GGR above.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Well, things fell apart pretty fast in N Kosovo when I was under the weather. This is a continuation of the “license plate” war where Kosovo wants to place the same licensing requirement of Serbian owned vehicles in Kosovo as are required of Kosovans living in Serbia.
Serbian Prime Minister Ana Brnabic announced her country was considering deploying 1,000 troops to Kosovo amid rising violence in the region. Brnabic accused NATO KFOR of failing to prevent ethnic Serbs, “including children in kindergarten,” from harassment by Kosovo police and security forces.
Serbs in the region have been attacking Kosovo police units and blocking roads in the region. Road blocks have reportedly been removed by KFOR and Kosovo police.
After the attacks on the Kosovo Police, Serbians have started to attack Kosovar journalists as well.
Diplomatic war of words accelerated as well. The OSCE Mission in Kosovo joined the international community in strongly condemning the attack last night on Kosovo police patrols . Further said violence against Kosovo Police and international security providers is entirely unacceptable and must stop immediately.
On the Serbian side, State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Serbia: “We’re nearing the point of no return tonight in Kosovo* as interim PM Kurti prepares his militarized police to raze the North and wipe out local Serbs”
Serbia is demanding that it be allowed to deploy 1,000 members of the security forces to Kosovo to protect ethnic Serbs from Kosovan aggression.
Kosovo in addition to reinforcing the region with additional police have also deployed between 200 and 300 special forces in the northern part of Kosovska Mitrovica.
OBSERVATION – The situation is still volatile, but it is uncertain if Serbia will actually launch an attack at this time. Close ally of Russia, much of the current disturbance can be attributed to an attempt to force NATO to switch its focus off Ukraine. Most likely Kosovan Serbs will continue their hit and run attacks against the Kosovan police in a effort to create a response that Serbia could use as justification to go in and protect those Serbs (hint – Russia made the similar excuse for invading Ukraine).
BTW – Wagner Group operatives are confirmed to be in / near the region, probably providing technical assistance to the Serbs on both sides of the border.
Iran –
Iran executed the second individual for his participation in the ongoing protests. Meanwhile, protests continue with a call for larger protests today in response to the executions over the weekend.
Some Iranian political and religious leaders are debating the regime’s use of the death penalty against arrested protesters. The ineffectiveness of the regime protest crackdown has likely allowed and encouraged some Iranian officials to criticize and debate more openly.
OBSERVATION – This has developed legs and doesn’t appear to be ending any time soon.
Saudi Arabia –
Saudi Arabia’s foreign minister said on Sunday that Iran’s Gulf Arab neighbours would act to shore up their security if Tehran were to obtain nuclear weapons.
“If Iran gets an operational nuclear weapon, all bets are off,” Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said in an on-stage interview at the World Policy Conference in Abu Dhabi when asked about such a scenario.
“We are in a very dangerous space in the region...you can expect that regional states will certainly look towards how they can ensure their own security.”
OBSERVATION – When Iran began working on their nuclear aspirations, there were a lot of rumors that it may try to purchase nuclear warhead direct from Pakistan. A lot has happened in the world since then, but one thing is for certain – Pakistan is in a serious financial crunch and some big bucks from SA would definitely look enticing.
Central / South America General-
Protests continue in Peruvian capitol of Lima, with police reportedly using tear gas to disperse protesters. The protests have swollen steadily since the South American country’s legislature on Wednesday threw out leftist President Pedro Castillo after he tried to dissolve Congress.
Meanwhile, rural unions and organizations representing Indigenous peoples called for an “indefinite strike” beginning Tuesday in support of Castillo, himself the son of a peasant family.
They demanded the suspension of Congress, early elections and a new constitution as well as Castillo’s immediate release, according to a statement from the Agrarian and Rural Front of Peru, which groups about a dozen organizations. New Peruvian President Dina Boluarte reacted by announcing in a nationally televised address that she will submit a bill to Congress to bring elections forward to April 2024.
OBSERVATION – Increasing instability in Peru after an attempted power take over by Castillo.
Misc of Note -
The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) continues to report shortages of major pharmaceuticals, including antibiotics, caused by lingering supply chain issues and increased demand during an acute influenza season.
See also GGR above on new desktop plandemic scenario.