Globalism / Great Reset –
Farmers in Germany have been banned from properly fertilizing large areas of their land under strict EU rules pushing the green agenda. The use of nitrate fertilizers has been further restricted for large swathes of farmland in North Rhine-Westphalia, which is now likely to drastically reduce yields. Although German authorities have implemented the ban, it is ultimately at the behest of the European Union, which is seeking to reduce the amount of nitrogen to tackle ‘climate change.’
The policy has already wreaked havoc in the Netherlands. As The Daily Fetched reported in September Dutch farmers have risen in protest to oppose the government curbs on nitrogen emissions to comply with Brussels.
Only Denmark, Ireland, the Flanders region of Belgium, and the Netherlands are permitted to exceed 170 kilos of manure per hectare, the current EU cap.
But under the terms negotiated by the outgoing Agriculture Minister, the exemption will end in 2026 and impact approximately 18,000 farms in the Netherlands, which spreads more manure on fields than other EU nations.
Farms affected by the decision will only be able to apply for 10,000 euros in assistance, which even Staghouwer acknowledged will not be sufficient to cover their losses, adding it “is not a nice message” to the farmers.
OBSERVATION – Assistance money won’t put food in the mouths of European citizens. European countries marching lock step into the WEF’s new world order with the same catastrophic dumpster fire the march to green energy has created.
The 15 Minute City is a UN (https://unfccc.int/blog/the-15-minute-city) and WEF plan (https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/03/15-minute-city-stickiness/). You will be tracked and trapped in your suburb and happy about it.—IClimate (https://iowaclimate.org/2022/12/03/oxford-2024-climate-lockdowns-start-you-will-be-tracked-and-trapped-in-your-suburb-and-happy-about-it/)
OBSERVATION – These ‘plans’ depict the utopian ideal community for the sheeple. One thing to note is the massive displacement of people into these ‘communities’ in order to make them fully work according to WEF et al.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has released the major themes for its upcoming January 2023 Davos conference. This year’s Switzerland confab will be titled, “Cooperation in a Fragmented World.” The major themes for the gathering will include:
1. “Addressing the Current Energy and Food Crises in the context of a New System for Energy, Climate and Nature” Essentially, the WEF wants you to eat bugs while energy becomes unaffordable due to the purposeful destruction of the global reliable energy sector.
2. “Addressing the Current High Inflation, Low Growth, High Debt Economy in the context of a New System for Investment, Trade and Infrastructure”
3. “Addressing the Current Industry Headwinds in the context of a New System for Harnessing Frontier Technologies for Private Sector Innovation and Resilience”
4. “Addressing the Current Social Vulnerabilities in the context of a New System for Work, Skills and Care”
5. “Addressing the Current Geopolitical Risks in the context of a New System for Dialogue and Cooperation in a Multipolar World” More climate hoax stuff and more coercion.
OBSERVATION – Heads up for whats coming up next.
WHO’s Pandemic Treaty preparations are moving forward with the World Bank creating a global pandemic fund, the largest fund in its history. The WHO also appears to be pushing the necessary amendments to the existing treaty (allowing them to by pass our certification process and constitution) to be voted on at 76th World Health Assembly in May 2023. This is a year earlier than their previous goal.
OBSERVATION - Reminder, these ‘amendments’ permit the WHO to bypass our constitution and laws and impose their own set of rules on the country.
Wuhan virus –
Republicans in the Senate have threatened to block the National Defense Authorization Act unless a vote is held on the current COVID vaccine mandate for military personnel.
The effort is being headed up by Florida Senator Rick Scott and Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, along with 11 other senators, including Ted Cruz and Mike Lee.
OBSERVATION - It will be a nice try, but the swamp won’t let it go through. Its all about power and in this case, reducing the military’s capability to go to war.
Economy –
Most financial institutions predict market prices will fall by around 5% by the end of 2023. Wells Fargo predicts the decrease will be over 5%, and analyst Ivy Zelman expects prices will drop by 4% in 2023 and another 5% in 2024. Moody’s Analytics predicts a decrease of 5%-10%. Capital Economics is a bit more pessimistic, predicting at least an 8% decrease over the next year.
Some experts think a more drastic change will occur over the next year, with prices falling nearly 20%. Online real estate giant Zillow believes that by February 2023, prices will drop almost 18% from the same time in 2022. Pantheon Macroeconomics predicts that the drop will reach over 20% by the middle of 2023
Many experts predict a rise in mortgage rates through the end of 2022 and the beginning of 2023 before a significant drop begins. It is less likely that properties will come onto the market if that’s the case.
Interest rates are still a problem. Even if prices plummet, increasing rates could prevent the market from falling as much as buyers hope.
OBSERVATION – As noted before, the housing market is a key overall indicator of the health of the economy, and it isn’t looking too good. We will likely see within another couple of months just how bad this summer will be.
U.S. logistic managers are bracing for delays in the delivery of goods from China in early January as a result of canceled sailings of container ships and rollovers of exports by ocean carriers.
U.S. manufacturing orders in China are down 40 percent, according to the latest CNBC Supply Chain Heat Map data. As a result of the decrease in orders, Worldwide Logistics tells CNBC it is expecting Chinese factories to shut down two weeks earlier than usual for the Chinese Lunar New Year — Chinese New Year’s Eve falls on Jan. 21 next year. The seven days after the holiday are considered a national holiday.
OBSERVATION – this due, in part, to the substantial zero covid lockdowns in china as well as the shifting of the US market towards probable recession (and businesses trying to reduce inventory)
Bank of America (BofA) analysts are warning of a collapsing U.S. labor market and a potential rise in unemployment next year. They also recommended selling a stock market rally ahead of the likely surge in job losses.
OBSERVATION – Again, elements of the investment community positioning for a recession while govt voices echo hopium.
The economy added 263,000 jobs in November, down from 284,000 jobs added in October. According to the Washington Post, economists are concerned that job and wage growth will push the Federal Reserve to continue raising rates and increase the risk of a recession.
CW2/Domestic violence –
The Biden administration has awarded $5 million to a group of journalists developing software to encourage Americans to confront their friends over “harmful” posts and to “correct misinformation” such as stating the COVID-19 vaccines are not effective.
The group, called Hacks/Hackers, also is organizing censorship of the online encyclopedia Wikipedia, to determine who is a “credible source” on vaccines and block others from being cited, the Daily Wire reported.
Users of the taxpayer-funded software – the Analysis and Response Toolkit for Trust, or ARTT – are encouraged to paste in their friends’ Twitter and Facebook posts. The tool will tell them how “harmful” the posts are. The funding came from the U.S. National Science Foundation.
Among the specific threats are “widespread online proliferation of false or misleading narratives regarding unsubstantiated widespread election fraud and COVID-19.”
“Grievances associated with these themes inspired violent extremist attacks during 2021,” DHS said.
OBSERVATION – High tech snitch on your neighbor operations. The regime has the narrative so deeply entrenched via MSM and govt controls now exposed by Musk that the sheeple are becoming well trained. We saw this to an extent during wuhan and you can expect it to quickly expand to climate change dictates.
Google has presented its project dubbed “Info Interventions” based on what it says is a behavioral science that, if these “interventions” are used as directed, could “teach” users to the degree they will become resilient to online harms.
Another promise is that by “pre-bunking misinformation” users can be “immunized.”
How is this supposed to work? Google has put up a site that states the goal is to provide accuracy prompts that would refocus users’ attention toward whatever Google decides qualifies as accurate information.
And to reach it, the “hypothesis” currently seems to be that “reminding individuals to think about accuracy when they might be about to engage with false information can boost users’ pre-existing accuracy goals.”
OBSERVATION – Looking at these plans and concepts on a daily basis is dizzying scary. Control of narrative and suppression of dissention has really hit overdrive the past couple of years – a pace unbelievable in the Before Times. Seriously – there appears to be no controls on this movement either – its going to be shoved down our throats whether we like it or not.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Katie Hobbs’s office apparently contacted Twitter to have posts removed! So, the democrat candidate, who ran the AZ election, censored her political opponents, disrupted Election Day votes, and then threatened counties with prosecution if they didn’t declare her the winner.
OBSERVATION – Meanwile the RNC is silent and not coming forward to assist Lake.
PROBABLY RELATED -
The chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, Ronna McDaniel, is facing a new challenger for the post, Politico reported Sunday.
Harmeet Dhillon, who already sits as an RNC committeewoman, is preparing a bid for party chair, according to two people familiar with the matter.
“After three successive terms of underwhelming results at the polls for the GOP, all the while with leaders congratulating ourselves for outstanding performance, I feel that we owe it to our voters to have a serious debate about the leadership of the party and what we must change to actually win in 2024,” a statement from Dhillon read.
Fellow challengers to McDaniel’s seat also include New York Rep. Lee Zeldin, who ran a competitive campaign for New York’s governor, and the CEO of MyPillow, Mike Lindell.
OBSERVATION - McDaniel is mitt romney’s niece - so no surprise here of the entrenched eGOP attitude. She has her position on the basis of graft and hasn’t done squat except try to disenfranchise the Republican base.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
A major power outage in North Carolina that left almost 40,000 people in the dark on Saturday night was caused by “intentional vandalism” at numerous substations, police said. At least two substations were hit.
Moore County Sheriff Ronnie Fields said in a statement that the blackout that began just after 7 p.m. was “being investigated as a criminal occurrence.”
Chief Mike Cameron of the Southern Pines Fire and Rescue Department told the local newspaper, The Pilot, that the substations had been damaged by gunfire.
Authorities have declared a countywide state of emergency
OBSERVATION – This incident is similar to one where substation transformers were hit in Kalifornian a number of years ago. Deranged leftists have been quick to say stopping a ‘family friendly’ trans drag event was the reason for the attack. Another rumor was that several gun stores were hit during the blackout. The sheriff has stated – no motive identified yet.
Motive is key as this incident could have been random vandalism (low likelihood), cover for organized crime, to probing operations by foreign or domestic elements assessing the ease of targeting such facilities and extent of impacts to the local communities.
ALSO RELATED - Domestic extremists have been developing plans to attack U.S. electric power infrastructure, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) warned in a bulletin obtained by The Hill.
The department said both domestic violent extremists and extremists specifically motivated by racial animus are among those eyeing the power system as a target for attack.
“DVEs have developed credible, specific plans to attack electricity infrastructure since at least 2020, identifying the electric grid as a particularly attractive target given its interdependency with other infrastructure sectors,” the bulletin says.
OBSERVATION – liking the attack on substations to domestic terrorism, will bolster the Biden administration’s warnings that right wing groups are a danger to the country.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine. It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Kremlin’s spokesperson says Putin was informed about explosions at airbases, see Ukraine below.
Logistics –
- Unconfirmed rumors that Russia launches Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones less frequently due to cold weather. It has a negative effect on the materials from which the drones are made. Components functional in the heat of the middle east not working well in Russian winter.
- Russia has been unable to deal with the impact of Western economic sanctions on its war production. Its government claims that production levels have been sustained and, in some cases, increased. This was contradicted by government-approved publications providing a different picture, one that depicted problems and failure to sustain pre-sanctions production levels.
Economic Impact –
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak says that Russia will not operate under an oil price cap even if it has to cut production
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
As I was typing, Russia launched a new cruise missile attack across central and southern Ukraine. No word yet on all locations hit or damages. This appears to be follow-up to earlier Russian attacks using S300 missiles in surface attack mode.
It also appears Ukraine has developed some sort of attack drone system capable of reaching deep into Russia to strike targets. Overnight, 2 planes were damaged, and 2 persons wounded as result of suspected drone strike at airfield in Saratov region of Russia. Planes damaged were reportedly - Tu-95 Bear bombers.
In another drone strike, 3 persons killed, 6 wounded as result of explosion of fuel truck at Dyagilevo military airfield in Ryazan region of Russia. Russian channels report 4 planes were damaged at Dyagilevo airbase (could be Il-78/76 or Tu-95, Tu-22).
Russian forces continued ground attacks around Bakhmut, with Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks northeast of Bakhmut near Berestove, Bilohorivka, Yakovlivka, Soledar, and Bakhmutske and south of Bakhmut near Opytne, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdiumivka.
Russian forces also conducted ground attacks in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area
Russian sources reported that Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations in the direction of Svatove on December 4. Ukrainian forces also reportedly continued counteroffensive operations toward Kreminna amidst limited Russian counterattacks.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
NSR
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed a concentration of Russian troops in the Yakymivka district of Zaporizhzhya region. The Russians reportedly lost up to 30 militants wounded and more than 10 dead.
Crimean front ———
Sporadic Russian artillery fire along LOC.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Explosions were reported in several districts of Belgorod region near the border of Ukraine.
Note again, Ukraine may have developed attack drones capable of penetrating deep into Russia. See 24 Hour Summary above.
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
As the hard freeze approaches in late December, Ukrainian forces will be again able to exploit the weather conditions. Winter is usually the best season for mechanized warfare in Ukraine whereas spring is the nightmare season for fighting in Ukraine.
Russia continues to expend a huge amount of resources in its efforts to capture Bahkmut and so far has slowly been making gains, but with high losses. This effort is lead by Wagner Group mercenaries and this battle plays politics against the General Staff at the MOD and both fight for putin’s favors and attention.
Iran –
Western media inaccurately reported that the Iranian regime abolished its morality patrol on December 4. The regime has not made such a concession.
Syria -
With things getting hot due to Turkish incursions in N. Syria, the south is beginning to boil as well. In Suwaydah in southern Syria, protests against the Assad regime in this Druze city turned bloody as Assad forces fired on the crowd, killing a protester. This resulted in the citizenry of the city becoming enraged.
Turkey -
Turkish presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin: We do not ask permission from anyone when our national security is endangered, and “it suffices to coordinate with allies.” Kalin: We will pursue “militants” to eliminate them by air and land, and we did not target American or Russian forces in our operations in northern Syria
Central / South America General-
RUMINT. Military vehicles have been spotted mobilizing in Brazil as President Bolsonaro met with military leaders at a ceremony to promote new generals in Brazilía Thursday. There are unconfirmed reports of armed forces deploying in cities.
Three separate reports have found that the elections could not be verified, since many of the voting machines cannot be audited. The military audit required by law could not be completed because the pro-Lula Electoral Court refuses to turn over the source code of the machines.
OBSERVATION – Still very much RUMINT as I haven’t found independent verification and sources are very pro- Bolsonaro.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Department of Homeland Security has delayed the deadline for air travelers to have a REAL ID another two years, the agency announced Monday.The program, which was to begin in May 2023, will now not go into effect until May 7, 2025. This is the third time the deadline has been extended.
OBSERVATION – They blame it on wuhan and associated backlogs. Let me toss another idea out there. The delay is to permit the digital ID with ESG tracking to come on line, bringing with it financial and vaccination info AND biometrically verified. Tin foil? Nope, if you follow the GGR types, these components are already getting in position for eventual combination into a singular system.
Wuhan virus –
At a private event over the weekend, Governor Ron DeSantis said that his administration intends to hold vaccine manufacturers accountable for making false claims about COVID products that have caused injuries and death.
The governor said he would be working with Florida Surgeon General Joseph A. Ladapo “to hold these manufacturers accountable for this mRNA [shot] because they said there were no side effects and we know that there have been a lot.”
DeSantis made the comments at a Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) event on Saturday at the Florida Governors Mansion. American Greatness reached out to both the RPOF, and the governor’s communications team for comment but did not receive an immediate reply.
“We did a study in Florida and we saw an 86 percent increase in cardiac related activity in people ages 18 to 39 from mRNA shots and so we’re going to be doing some stuff to bring accountability there,” DeSantis told the RPOF Executive Committee members at the event. In the United States, the mRNA products are produced by Pfizer and Moderna.
OBSERVATION – Deliberate fraud by Pfizer/Moderna will negate their current protection from lawsuits under the emergency use authorization. If DeSantis makes good on his promise, the flood gates could eventually open. However, fruits of such lawsuits are still multiple years out due to appeals, etc. and USSC is not guaranteed to hear any cases.
Link this also with Stratigic Activity below. Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee Adam Smith (D-WA) said a rollback of the policy was on the NDAA negotiation table but hasn’t been decided yet. Smith said that a vaccine policy from August 2021 didn’t make sense to continue in the new bill, but a push to reinstate personnel discharged for refusing the vaccine was a red line.
OBSERVATION - Growing pressure to nix the wuhan mandate for the military. However, the desired damage has been done so it is becoming less valuable of a tool. Reinstating discharged (many BDC and Other than recipients due to jab refusal) is a pipe dream even if allowed in the bill. I cannot conceive of any soldier going back under a command structure that so blatantly abused the law and the soldiers. Perhaps a few with short time to retirement, but the rest - you’d be a fool to do so.
Economy –
The UK is “sleepwalking” into a food supply crisis and the government must step in to help farmers, the National Farmers Union (NFU) has warned.
Yields of tomatoes and other crops will likely slump to record lows this year, it said, with potential supply problems ahead as already seen with eggs.
Soaring fuel, fertiliser and feed costs were putting farmers under severe pressure, it added.
OBSERVATION - Folks, the US isn’t that far behind the UK in the growing food crisis mode. Being a much larger country with a more diverse agricultural base and climates we can absorb more, but at this stage, not much more. We are already seeing fertilizer and fuel impacts on food production. Ranchers had to cull herds due to drought and lack of hay feed. Poultry industry still reeling from avian flu. Kalifiornia agriculture is on the ropes without water, so on goes the list.
IN RELATED – Showing just how delicately our agriculture is set, the US Department of Agriculture expects a production decrease of 11% in the 2022-2023 season. California’s Department of Water Resources announced an initial State Water Project allocation of 5% for 2023, the third year in a row with a 5% allocation. Last year was devastating for kalifornia and we felt it across the nation in higher food prices and shortages.
Invasion of Illegals –
Now it’s another Republican compromise to give illegals a pathway to citizen in the Senate.
Sens. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) have reached an agreement on a draft framework of immigration reform compromises, sources familiar with the situation tell me. They involve issues such as the fate of “dreamers” brought here illegally as children and the processing of asylum seekers at the southern border. Will the 10 Republican senators necessary to overcome a filibuster go along?
here’s a partial list of the major items it contains:
• Some form of path to citizenship for 2 million dreamers.
• A large boost in resources to speed up the processing of asylum seekers, including new processing centers and more asylum officers and judges.
• More resources to expedite the removal of migrants who don’t qualify for asylum.
• A continuation of the Title 42 covid-health-rule restriction on migrants applying for asylum, until the new processing centers are operational, with the aim of a one-year cutoff.
• More funding for border officers.
OBSERVATION – The mushy eGOP now appears to be fully siding with the leftists on immigration now (after folding to the fake marriage law). This bodes ill for the Senate in the next session as there are clearly 12 RINOs and with senate gains by democrats, the filibuster level is less critical.
Biden / Harris watch –
President Joe Biden struggled to deliver a speech from his teleprompter on Sunday while saluting the Kennedy Center Honorees at the White House.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Monitor the electrical substation hits over the weekend. This tactic is just the kind that an incipient insurgency movement may use when things get spicy and may be just a test run.
CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
POLITICAL FRONT –
Amid continuing struggles for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to secure the speakership, House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) advised the California Republican to make a deal with Democrats to push himself over the finish line. Clyburn made the comments during an appearance on MSNBC’s “The Sunday Show.”
OBSERVATION – Were McCarthy to make such a deal with the devil, any useful republican majority in the house this next session would find itself immediately neutralized as McCarthy would ‘owe’ the democrats a lot for his power play. Not only that, but the republican caucus in the House would face the very strong likelihood of imploding - making democrats very happy with 2024 in their sights.
As it is, McCarthy managed to fight off a challenge by Rep Biggs to secure the Republican nomination for Speaker. That said, McCarthy does not appear have the votes to take the speaker’s gavel in January – thus making the potential deal with the devil more likely.
Domestic / International Terror (modified)-
Investigation continues with no leads on the destruction of transformers at two substations in Moore County.
Officials said Monday that many customers’ outages could last until Thursday, causing concern that the combination of chilly evening temperatures and no heat could spell disaster for some residents.
A countywide state of emergency was declared Sunday alongside a nightly curfew that was expected to last as long as the declaration was in effect. Citizens were also encouraged to conserve fuel.
Moore County residents have seen power failures before, particularly during snowstorms and extreme weather. The parts of the substations that were damaged need to be replaced, unlike when pieces can be repaired in place after weather events disrupt power.
According to the Department of Energy, there have been nine physical attacks and 60 acts of vandalism on the U.S. electrical grid so far this year.
OBSERVATION – It seems that the attacks were coordinated and through. While many suspect right wing group(s) did it, the left is also fully capable now of pulling such an attack off as well. All goes down to motives.
BTW – the vulnerability of the power grid to these pinpoint targeted attacks has been known since the attacks in Kalifornia a number of years ago. The transformers hit then and now are the type that there are few replacements lying around and their loss delays getting power back up. Two substations too out power to 40,000.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The Navy is lowering its admittance requirements for one of the required entrance exams as part of the service’s latest changes to widen the recruiting pool for sailors.
Potential recruits seeking to join the Navy need to take both the Armed Forces Qualification Test and the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery.
The new change puts more weight on the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery, which tells if someone is qualified for Navy service, versus the Armed Forces Qualification Test, Cmdr. Dave Benham, a spokesperson for Navy Recruiting Command, told USNI News in an email.
Under a pilot system, the Navy can now take 20 percent of recruits who score in Category 4 (scores between 10-30) on the Armed Forces Qualification Test, as long as they score high enough to qualify for a Navy rating on the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery, Benham said. The pilot begins today and will be evaluated next October.
OBSERVATION – If they keep lowering the bar, might as well go back to the draft. When Reagan came out with the all volunteer army, recruiting was overwhelmed by highly qualified enlistees. Now as the military has gone woke, those highly qualified individuals are finding other things to do, leaving our high-tech miliary in the hands of the unqualified to even peel potatoes.
MORE RECRUITING WOES - Speaking during a panel at the Reagan National Defense Forum in Simi Valley, California, Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger defended the vaccine mandate as a necessity for keeping the force healthy. But he indicated the mandate has posed problems for recruiting in pockets of the United States where vaccine misinformation is prevalent.
OBSERVATION – ‘vaccine misinformation’, well now the good general should be better informed than that. Three key facts about this “misinformation”
1. The military has been forcing the experimental vaccine in violation of law onto servicemen.
2. The so called vaccine has been proven overwhelmingly now NOT to prevent infection, with even those having the basic two jabs plus two boosters getting wuhan.
3. The jab is showing itself to be more of a danger to readiness than the virus in that is shown to have lethal adverse affects – Myocardia in indiviuals on military age that is irreversible, among other aliments well documented now in the VARES database.
China –
Though not regularly noted here, China continues to fly aircraft and move ships into Taiwan’s defense zones on a daily basis.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now in its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russian forces are constructing defensive lines across occupied southern Ukraine.
It is only capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk. It is incapable of large scale offensive operation in Ukraine.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart and less intense.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that it will use one to swing the initiative back to its forces.
********
Following yesterday’s Ukrainian drone attacks that successfully hit Russian airbases deep inside of Russia, Putin discussed with Russian security council “internal security of the state”
NUKE WATCH -
Speaking to the Moscow Conference on Nonproliferation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov warned against NATO’s increasing aggression, saying the alliance posed a “serious threat” to Russia, whose policies risked a “direct clash between nuclear powers.” Lavrov indicated Russia had no choice but to regularly send “warning signals,” which had been portrayed by the west as “threat rhetoric.”
Logistics –
- A feature of the latest Russian strikes is the apparent absence of Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones. Ukrainian officials recently said Russia had used up its supply of the unmanned vehicles. Another Ukrainian military official said cold weather had prevented Russia from deploying them. Either way, they do not appear to have been used since mid-November.
Economic Impact –
- Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine and the resulting global response will set Russia’s economy back by at least 30 years — close to old Soviet Union times — and lower its standard of living for at least the next five years, according to economists, investors and diplomats.
The sweeping Western sanctions are designed to inflict maximum pain on the country’s economy by expelling it from global markets and freezing assets around the world. From the moment they took effect three weeks ago, the sanctions have opened a new chapter in Russia’s economic history.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Subfreezing temperatures and less precipitation (primarily snow) in the 10 day forecast
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
I wrapping up yesterday’s post I noted the start of another Russian missile attack, today we have some of the fallout so to speak and it is interesting. Ukraine’s air force said it downed over 60 of more than 70 missiles fired by Russia on Monday - the latest in weeks of attacks targeting its critical infrastructure that have cut off power, heat and water to many parts of the country.
However, that wasn’t the biggest story to come out of it. As the Russian bombers were undergoing preparations for the attack, Ukraine pulled another rabbit out of its hat and hit two airfields with Tu-141 drones. The attack damaged several aircraft (TU-95 Bear and TU-22 Backfires) and at each, and killed about 6 airmen total. It appears that Ukraine had the intel about the upcoming missile strike and it hit the airfields right before.
These drones penetrated 600 km into Russian territory. The Tu-141 are 1970s technology, jet powered, with a range of 1000km and a 75Kg warhead. FWIW, that even puts Moscow in range. Nothing says that Ukraine couldn’t have upgraded them with newer guidance systems. One can liken this to the Billy Mitchell bomber attacks on Japan shortly after Pearl Harbor.
A pretty strong wake up call. Speaking of wake up call, after the drone attacks on two Russian airbases, one Russian paper today slams the “failure of the whole [Russian] anti-aircraft defence system.” Another: “So it turns out that enemy drones managed to travel hundreds of kilometres & avoid our defence systems?”
Overnight, Ukraine drones struck again, hitting Kursk/Khalino airbase which has the Su-30SMs of RuAF 14th Guards Fighter Aviation Regiment (14 GvIAP) stationed there. The attack set fire to an oil storage tank. Another 2 drones exploded at Slava factory in Bryansk region
On the ground, things have quieted down with fewer standard attacks in the Bakhmut and Donetsk regions. Sporatic Russian artillery fire along the LOC.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
NSR
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continuing Russian attacks west-northwest of Donetsk and Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
NSR
Crimean front ———
NSR
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
2 drones exploded at Slava factory in Bryansk region
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks across Russian occupied territory.
OUTLOOK ——
Ukraine’s surprise drone attacks, though limited, have exposed another Russian defensive weakness. It didn’t expect Ukraine to reach so deeply with its assets, so it is likely no ADA assets were turned on to intercept the drones.
Russia has been cannibalizing its S300 ADA assets to support its ground attacks against Ukraine power grid and other civilian targets. This reduces assets necessary to protect deeper bases like those hit recently with these aged drones. Now Russia faces another dilemma, pull assets back from ground attack roles as well as those providing coverage of its ground assets to defend these bases or leave relatively undefended for the time as other assets are pulled from Syria (Russia recently asked Israel not to interfere with a S300 pull out) or from eastern regions of Russia. Similar happened this summer when Ukraine was able to hit Crimea using other drones.
Ukraine cannot match Russia for volumes of blitzes, but the capability to hit specific targets at depth has given more headaches to the Russian MOD to defend against.
Iran –
Now into the 82nd day of the uprising, yesterday marked the first day of a three day nation wide strike in support of protests. Protest activity and strikes in Iran increased significantly, in line with the calls from protest coordinators and organizations for countrywide demonstrations until December 7. Iran Social media users reported significant countrywide strikes in 73 cities across 27 provinces, although some think this number is almost certainly higher.
Some protestors are marking those stores who are not supporting the protests by staying open. These businesses stand a strong chance of being damaged/burned over the course of the next several days and its owners targeted for harassment. This kind of singling out is also characteristic of an incipient revolution.
OBSERVATION – This 3 day coordinated strike and protests so far seem to be successful in organizing a broader effort – demonstrating a growing protest movement and weakness of the govt to shut it down.
Syria -
Rocket bombardment from SDF sites targets a Turkish military base in Kafr Janna, in the countryside of Afrin, north of Aleppo
OBSERVATION – Turkey has been shooting at just about every faction in N Syria – not just the kurds. This is starting to turn around and bite them back.
Central / South America General-
Yesterday I noted rumors of military deployments potentially related to the contested election results. Today reports that In an unusual step for the military, the Army has invaded favelas of Rio de Janeiro and killed top leaders of the Comando Vermelho (Red Command) drug cartel, which supports the Communist criminal Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Observers take this to indicate the beginning of a federal military intervention. The drug gangs were the only ones to celebrate the alleged election victory by criminal Lula Oct. 30, firing automatic weapons in the air in the favelas. President Bolsonaro cracked down hard on the Brazilian drug gangs.
OBSERVATION - Can’t be sure that his may ultimately result in the military taking over the govt if it can be shown this cartel was involved in illegalities surrounding the election. The military appears to be acting cautiously before getting involved deeper.