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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

There has been such a flood of actions the past couple weeks that I’m reaching a point of saturation. I’m working hard to filter out and find the most critical items but know full well that there are many other actions I’m not reporting that can quickly fester up into a crisis.
I don’t want to overload these posts.
So if you don’t see something here and think it needs to be out there, please post and comment on it.


Globalism / Great Reset –

Touting his Breakthrough Energy Ventures climate-technology (carbon tax) investment company, Gates told CNBC “People did get a little optimistic about how quickly the transition could be done.”“Without the Russian natural gas being available in Europe… it’s a setback,” Gates continued. “We need to find non Russian hydrocarbon sources to substitute for those so there’s coal plants running and variety of things, because, you know, keeping, you know, people warm, keeping those economies in decent shape is a priority,” Gates asserted.
He continued, “Now, on the other hand, it’s good for the long run, because people won’t want to be dependent on Russian natural gas so they’ll move to these new approaches more rapidly.”

OBSERVATION – GGR is relying on chaos to move its agenda forward. It should be clear by now they don’t care what damage is caused, since the elites are insulated from the effects.

Another round of farmer protests could soon be on the way in The Netherlands following an announcement that as many as 600 farms throughout the country may get seized for “polluting” the environment with nitrogen.
Former deputy prime minister Johan Remkes , meanwhile, is defending his proposals – though he admits they come at a cost. He says under the EU’s so-called “green” agenda, “the Netherlands will be locked up because it will be legally almost impossible to issue permits. Not for houses, not for farms, not for roads.”
“I write this with a heavy heart, but I see no other way,” Remkes said. “I don’t expect the agricultural sector will be happy with this report.”

OBSERVATION – Netherlands going from buying out to forcibly seizing properties. Note that the GGR will use force if necessary. This will trigger serious protests as farmers say this is clearly a red line.


Economy –

Increasing inflation in spite of a drop in fuel prices has the Fed in focused on doubling down on more rate increases despite worsening economic outlooks outlined in the Beige Book. Indicators are the Fed is looking at more rate increases in November and December. Fed officials also left open the possibility that rate hikes would continue next year after reaching 4.5-4.75% if “underlying” inflation continues to climb. That’s a full point higher than what the Fed was pushing for earlier this year, which shows a high level of concern on inflation. Some indicators that the Fed may actually move planned rate increases for 2023 INTO 2022 – which would be increases in Nov and Dec in excess of one basis point.

As word of the Feds “what if” scenarios thru 2023, there are concerns about the Treasury market, China’s zero wuhan policy, other supply bottlenecks. Bottom line is that the Fed is going to weight inflation higher than these other issues – increasing the risk of the creation of deep recession.

OBSERVATION – Economic conditions are not as they have been in the past leading up to a recession. Biden’s policies and the wuhan dumpster fire have stripped key elements to the bare bone – with little left to withstand a severe economic downturn.

JPMorgan analysts are forecasting oil prices remain at $100/bbl in Q4 of 2022 and $98/bbl in 2023.

OBSERVATION – See Fed what ifs. This will not result in a decrease in inflation.

More on oil, Biden’s energy secretary tells CNN releasing millions of barrels of fuel from the strategic reserve is necessary because country is on a ‘wartime footing.’

OBSERVATION – SMH, either too stupid to belong in the position or else deliberately lying to mislead the public.

BIG OBSERVATION – Should there be another arab oil embargo – we are screwed.

MORE on fuel issues. There is a growing crisis gripping the US diesel, as demand is surging while supplies remain at the lowest seasonal level for this time of year ever, according to government data released Wednesday.
According to the EIA, the US now has just 25 days of diesel supply, the lowest since 2008; and while inventories are record low, the four-week rolling average of distillates supplied - a proxy for demand - rose to its highest seasonal level since 2007.

The historic diesel crunch comes just weeks ahead of the midterm elections and will almost certainly drive up prices for consumers who already view inflation and the economy as a top voting issue. Retail prices have been steadily climbing for more than two weeks. At $5.324 a gallon, they’re 50% higher than this time last year, according to AAA data.
Wholesale diesel prices in the spot market of New York harbor, a key pricing point, have surged this week to more than $200 per barrel. Excluding a brief interval from late April into mid-May, that would be a record high.

OBSERVATION – Diesel is one of the life bloods of the economy. High costs hit the consumer many times over in numerous cases. High diesel raises the price of agriculture, which adds cost to shipping agriculture products to factories, which adds again to the costs of shipping to distribution centers and eventually to stores. What is dangerous is the very low stockage levels. Should a national emergency hit, there will be very little wiggle room for response and recovery.

Container traffic is down, waaaay down which has contributed to the reduction in the wait time at ports on the west coast. This reflects primarly a decrease in orders by companies in anticipation of a recession (don’t want to get stuck with overpriced inventory). This is threatened by the specter of a potential rail road strike in the December (Christmas) time frame. A strike would throw the whole supply distribution chain into more turmoil.


Invasion of Illegals -

The federal government is demanding the state remove double-stacked shipping containers placed to fill gaps in the wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, saying they are unauthorized and violate U.S. law.
The Bureau of Reclamation also demanded in last week’s letter that no new containers be placed. It said the bureau wants to prevent conflicts with two federal contracts that have been awarded and two more still pending to fill border wall gaps near the Morelos Dam in the Yuma, Arizona, area.
“The unauthorized placement of those containers constitutes a violation of federal law and is a trespass against the United States,” the letter states. “That trespass is harming federal lands and resources and impeding Reclamation’s ability to perform its mission.”

ARIZONA’S RESPONSE –
Republican Gov. Doug Ducey’s spokesman told the Washington Examiner on Wednesday evening that Washington’s latest proposal in the fight over securing the border in western Arizona is not something the state will even consider.
“The suggestion by any federal bureaucracy, that we take action to make the border easier to cross, is completely unacceptable. Gov. Ducey takes the responsibility to protect Arizona very seriously — that’s why we put up these containers,” said Ducey’s communications director, C.J. Karamargin, in a call Wednesday evening. “What they’re suggesting, that we take them down and make Arizona less safe, is a nonstarter.”
The outright refusal on Arizona’s part is the latest move in a game of chess between state and federal officials over border security, a matter that is the responsibility of the federal government.

OBSERVATION – File this also under CW2. The failure to secure the border by the feds is prompting states to literally fill in the gaps. The feds may launch legal challenges but that will take time and AZ (as well as other states) can play the delay game like biden has with the courts. Seriously doubt the Feds will try to forcibly remove the barriers either – that would create a serious confrontation and may even require the feds use a force other than the border patrol (who likely supports AZ on this)- perhaps federal marshals. Overt disobedience by states towards the feds are expected to increase – watch for even more so if the red wave really comes home.

BTW – “. “That trespass is harming federal lands and resources and impeding Reclamation’s ability to perform its mission.”” BurRec’s mission is water supply – NOT border control.


Biden / Harris watch -

Biden cited God in a speech he delivered on Tuesday night at the Howard Theatre in Washington, D.C. in regards to abortion
“And come this November, we’re going to see what happens all over America, God willing,” said Biden.

OBSERVATION – I’m sure God isn’t aligning with biden et al on this subject.


CW2/Domestic violence -

Far Left activists are signaling opposition to a House bill known as the “Stop the Sexualization of Children Act.” The bill intends to strip federal funding of any hospital, school, or other organization presenting lewd genitals or gender ideology descriptions to children under 10.

OBSERVATION – Antifa et al has become more anarchic, searching for a purpose. Support for the trans/LGBT agenda has been one of those areas. However, this action is unlikely to generate massive support and turnout.


CANCEL CULTURE FRONT

Critics point out that while PayPal rescinded its misinformation policy, the company still maintains a $2,500 “liquidation” policy against accounts accused of “discrimination,” “hatred” and “intolerance.” PayPal is now facing a Republicans launched inquiry.

OBSERVATION – This investigation won’t gain traction during this session of congress, but if republicans take control after midterms, then things will get hot for PayPal as well as other big tech internet companies.


POLITICAL FRONT –
The Michigan-based election software company Konnech filed a defamation lawsuit against the Texas-based group True the Vote in September. True the Vote had accused the company of being both “owned by the Chinese Communist Party” and involved in “subversion of our elections.” Konnech denied the allegations, though its credibility is now in doubt.
On October 4, Konnech CEO Eugene Yu, who lived in China until 1986, was arrested on suspicion of data theft, having allegedly stored “critical information that [U.S. election] workers provided on servers in China.”
Prosecutor Eric Neff suggested that the crimes allegedly committed by Konnech and Yu amounted to the “largest data breach in United States history.”
Yu was charged again last week for grand theft by embezzlement of funds exceeding $2.6 million. (Britbart)

OBSERVATION – This coming out prior to the elections – hard for the MSM to keep under wraps.
Yes Virginia, there was and is vote fraud.


Strategic Activity / Deployments -

Two more bombers were deployed to Guam, bringing the number to four. Increase believed to be in response to N Korea’s activity.


China –

U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations Mike Gilday warned that new estimates show a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan could happen in 2023 and possibly even before the end of 2022.

OBSERVATION – This is a worse case scenario. Post-pelosi, China has substantially stepped up its air and sea presence around the island and testing innovative ways to get men and material across the strait. All these actions serve to generate a level of normalcy and mask actual preparations for an assault. Classical example is the surprise attack on Israel in 1973 (Yon Kippur War) China has demonstrated the capability to emplace a form of a blockade which I think would be more likely in the short term. A war would stress the Chinese economy - particularly the sanctions involved. Xi in his CCP speech indicated that invasion has not been ruled out.

EXAMPLE of ongoing increased air/sea presence around Taiwan. Taiwan Ministry of Defense reported that 20 PLA aircraft and 3 PLAN vessels around our surrounding region were detected today (Oct. 20, 2022)

At the 20th National CCP Congress, Xi Jinping adopted the proposed list of preliminary nominees to the Central Committee, the CCPs core political leadership group. Xi also approved the preliminary list of nominees to the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection – the party’s anti-corruption watchdog. The anti-corruption unit is one of the primary security vehicles for removing political opponents in the Central Committee and Chinese government. Xi used the anti-corruption unit to remove several powerful rivals ahead of this year’s CCP Congress. Xi’s approval of the list indicates he is still firmly in control of the power elements within the CCP. (FO)

OBSERVATION – Xi is coming out of the congress even stronger, this in spite of economic woes and wuhan shutdowns.


North/South Korea -

North Korea’s military said it has ordered its troops to fire more artillery shells off its east and west coasts in response to South Korea’s firing of rounds from multiple rocket launchers


Japan –

Unconfirmed reports that the Japanese military has devised a plan to use kamikaze drones to strike enemy landing forces and vessels in the event of an invasion of the nation’s remote territories, according to local media.


Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Russia may be planning another major withdrawal from the Kherson Oblast in an effort to consolidate defenses east of the Dnipir River.

********
Putin passed a decree on October 19 which set the blame on Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Finance Minister Anton Siluanov for future payment issues with military personnel.

The Russian Foreign Ministry put out a statement saying the continued supply of arms to Ukraine makes the European Union part of the conflict

NUKE WATCH -
Getting inside of putin’s mind and thought processes is essential to understanding the potential that he will order a nuclear strike of some kind in the near future. Found the following document that I’m still wrapping my mind around.

https://www.justsecurity.org/83605/addressing-putins-nuclear-threat-thinking-like-the-cold-war-kgb-officer-that-he-was/

Their assessment of what needs to happen is pretty bleak -
“But to mitigate against Putin’s initiation of such a spiral and ultimately prevent Russian nuclear use, the US and its NATO allies must be prepared to climb that escalatory conventional ladder and respond, leaving no ambiguity with Putin of the consequences. In the event Putin is detected deploying tactical nuclear weapons into theater, this could include moving sufficient NATO combat air power along with Combat Controllers to guide weapons to their targets, other special forces operators, expanded U.S. air defense, and missile capable naval combatants and the like into theater, which would respond to Putin’s nuclear use by destroying his forces in Ukraine. But keeping the engagement localized, not extending even to Crimea, might reduce Putin’s obligation to escalate still further.”

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told MPs that on September 29 an RAF RC-135 Rivet Joint spy plane was being shadowed by two Russian Su-27s in international airspace when one of the Su-27s “released a missile in the vicinity of the Rivet Joint”. Rivet Joint patrols were suspended, the Russians blamed a “technical malfunction” for the missile being released (?!). Patrols have restarted but the Rivet Joints are now escorted by fighter jets, MPs have been told.

OBSERVATION – Earlier this week some on the OSINT side noted that British Typhoon fighters were accompanying a British R135 Rivet Joint mission over the Black Sea - noted as unusual. Various speculation, but none that identified a potential Russian missile launch against earlier missions.

RUMINT –
Russian authorities are likely setting information conditions to justify planned Russian retreats and significant territorial losses in Kherson Oblast.

Logistics –
- Russia has lost many aircraft since the invasion commenced, more than 400 manned aircraft including helicopters and more than 1000 UAVs according to most Ukrainian reports
- Confirmed visual losses of armor and tanks now exceed 2000.
- Enough T-62 tanks have been captured by Ukraine (excluding those destroyed) in recent weeks to fill a tank battalion.


Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Continued Iranian drone attacks striking several towns and electrical grid. Ukraine will start restricting electricity supplies across the country on Thursday after Russia knocked out more power plants, a senior aide to President Zelensky said on Wednesday. - Reuters
Action in Kherson Oblast still unclear. No specific word on the Ukrainian offensive, but there is a lot of rumbling about just what Russia is up to. Finally, information coming out about the WW1 style defensive line being constructed in the east.

Indian citizens currently in Ukraine advised to leave as soon as possible - Indian Embassy in Ukraine

OBSERVATION – This is the latest in countries warning their citizens to leave the country – sparking more speculation that they have been tipped off to something nasty coming from Russia. This is unusual given that we are now nearly 9 months into the war.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Russia launched minor attacks across the border north of Khrkiv. Ukraine offensive towards Saratov and Kreminna appears to have slowed substantially, likely due to poor weather and muddy conditions.

Donetsk Oblast ——
Russia continues to attempt to force a breakthrough along the LOC from Donetsk to north of Bahkmut.

More information on the WW1 style defensive line being constructed is coming out. NOTE – not completely confirmed. According to Prigozhin’s RIA FAN, this is a map of the defensive line Wagner (the ‘Wagner Line”) is building in the Donbas.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ffd0EUUWYAE90cm?format=jpg&name=360x360

Looks like they are prepared to surrender the north with little resistance. The big flaw in this defensive arrangement however is a breakthrough to the north could render the entire line along the river meaningless.

Crimean front ———
Still little information on the extent of the offensive in northern Kherson Oblast. Ukraine has continued to strike Russian pontoon bridges across the Dnipir and ferry sites which continue to isolate Russian forces west of the river.

Russia is still encouraging evacuation of communities along the west bank of the Dnipir under the cover of an imminent Ukrainian attack on the Kakhovka dam. Some analysts suspect that Russia is setting up a false flag event to take out the dam, which would further harm the Ukrainian power grid and cover a retreat across the Dnipir River.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
Missile and drone attacks across the region.

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
Maelstrom of conflicting information on the Kherson offensive and Russian pull out. I view Russian statements with a great deal of skepticism. Russia has provided a ‘civilian’ deadline of about 5 days from today suggesting something is a foot. Speculation is raging that the Kakhovka dam may be blown up by Russia as a ‘false flag’ event. Some speculation to the wild side suggests the region is potentially targeted for a tactical nuke strike – hit the concentrated Ukrainian forces. Still too much chaff to clearly sort stuff out.

FWIW, I don’t see much change in the activity level. Wet weather is settling in and will impact Ukraine’s mobile warfare while ruining what little morale Russian forces have left.


Belarus -

Lukashenko calls Poland the most aggressive state in relation to Belarus and the main initiator of a nuclear war - Radio Svaboda

OBSERVATION – The recent military activity in Belarus and a lot of the rhetoric coming out appears to be largely directed at Poland, with some towards the Baltic states. Lukashenko may be afraid to enter the Ukraine war directly, but would he pick a fight with Poland?

General consensus is that Belarus/Russia are posturing on the potential invasion version 2.0 from the north.


Europe / NATO General -

British Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned Thursday — bowing to the inevitable after a tumultuous six-week term in which her policies triggered turmoil in financial markets and a rebellion in her party obliterated her authority. According to NBC News, Truss now holds the title of shortest-serving prime minister in British history, a title previously held by Geroge Canning, who lasted 119 days in the early 19th century.


Israel -

Israel getting push back from the European community over its reluctance to supply war materials to Ukriane. It is being pointed out that when Israel was in need, the west helped out. Now its Israel’s turn.


Iran -

Iran Protests have subsided in extent and scale in recent days but may increase on October 20 and 26. Anti-regime groups called for protests on October 26, which will mark 40 days since Mahsa Amini’s death. Iranians commonly hold a commemoration on the 40th day after a person’s death and protest organizations may seek to use this date to reignite demonstrations.

Isfahan, central Iran Workers of the Entekhab Industrial Group are on strike. This is the 35th day of the nationwide uprising against the mullahs’ government



747 posted on 10/20/2022 9:07:14 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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To: Godzilla
JPMorgan analysts are forecasting oil prices remain at $100/bbl in Q4 of 2022 and $98/bbl in 2023.

But, but, but - Biden said we would refill the strategic oil reserve with oil CHEAPER THAN WHAT HE SOLD IT FOR...

(Biden's lying again...)


748 posted on 10/20/2022 11:48:39 AM PDT by GOPJ (Trump EARNED his money. Democrats steal theirs from taxpayers. It's why they hate Trump.)
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To: Godzilla
U.S. Navy Chief of Naval Operations Mike Gilday warned that new estimates show a cross-strait invasion of Taiwan could happen in 2023 and possibly even before the end of 2022.

I suspect China doesn't want to deal with a Republican Congress...they might move before our guys take office. Or worse, they'll make the invasion the 'October Surprise' as a gift to Biden. (I suspect the Chinese are happy Biden's in office and his whore monger, drug addicted son is still in tight with Daddy)

749 posted on 10/20/2022 11:55:39 AM PDT by GOPJ (Trump EARNED his money. Democrats steal theirs from taxpayers. It's why they hate Trump.)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Yesterday - swamped
Today – relatively light.


Globalism / Great Reset –

Australia’s Commonwealth Bank (CBA) has partnered with Cogo, a “carbon management solutions” company, to launch the new feature, which is part of CBA’s online banking platform.
The bank gives the customer the option to “pay a fee” to offset their carbon footprint, with the average listed as 1,280 kilograms, a long way from the ‘sustainable’ figure of 200 kilograms
While initially presented as a handy way for someone to track their consumption habits and the supposed impact they have on the environment, some fear that such schemes could one day become mandatory and place limits on purchases of customers who exceed their ‘carbon allowance.’ Carbon units would be “deducted from the personal budget with every payment of transport fuel, home-heating fuels and electricity bills,” and anyone going over the limit would be forced to purchase additional units in the personal carbon market from those with excess to sell.”

OBSERVATION – As I’ve noted in the past, Australia is one of the beta test countries for the GGR. What they do here may well be applied on a global basis in the future.


Economy –

Reading the tea leaves, factory activity in the Philadelphia area declined for the second consecutive month in October even while inflationary pressures were more widespread, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday.
The indexes for current general activity and new orders both remained negative for the month and the shipments index remains low but still in positive territory. Despite sagging demand, the measures of inflation worsened and demand for labor increased, suggesting a stagflationary environment.

OBSERVATION – All the numbers are mixed, some good, some bad. However the big word of worry is stagflation.


China –

Taiwan Ministry of Defense reported that 20 PLA aircraft and 3 PLAN vessels were detected

OBSERVATION – Continued high levels of air and sea probes by China. Remember when it was only an aircraft or two..

TikTok has denied a report that a China-based team at its parent company ByteDance planned to use the app to track the locations of US citizens.
The social media giant said on Twitter that it has never been used to “target” the American government, activists, public figures or journalists.
The firm also says it does not collect precise location data from US users.
It was responding to a report in Forbes that data would have been accessed without users’ knowledge or consent.

OBSERVATION – Covert individual tracking is pervasive throughout the smart phone market. There is virtually no way to shut off tracking algorithms. This is on top of privacy issues.


Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now into its eighth month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.

CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russian forces continue in a state of disarray following the defeats in the east and west. Russian leadership changes will take time to set up new chains of command and control, reprioritize support and operational goals. Russia may be planning another major withdrawal from the Kherson Oblast in an effort to consolidate defenses east of the Dnipir River.

********

Kerch Bridge update –
New video showing the ongoing repair work on the Crimea Bridge. Currently they are disassembling the spans that did not collapse into the water. The two completely collapsed spans are still in place where they fell.

Logistics –
- Since February 2022 Russia has lost nearly 4,000 tanks and other armored vehicles in Ukraine as well as nearly a thousand other specialized vehicles, including towed artillery.

Russian Personnel Issues –
- There will be a one-month delay in Russia’s usual autumn conscription cycle ... was ordered because Putin’s “partial mobilization is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that oversee the semiannual conscription cycle.” NOTE – most of the individuals eligible for this conscription cycle may have fled the country to avoid the mobilization.
- Bashkir nationalists have announced the creation of armed resistance. Media reports. The partisans demanded to stop the partial mobilization in Bashkortostan, which, in their opinion, is “an act of the hidden ethnocide of the autochthonous population”. The offices of Duma parties and military recruitment offices are set on fire in the republic, and men are encouraged to go into hiding and prepare to fight.
“Bashkir, member of a Turkic people, numbering more than 1,070,000 in the late 20thC, settled in the eastern part of European Russia, between the Volga River & the Ural Mountains, & beyond the Urals...main territory is Bashkortostan, where they are far outnumbered by Russians.”


Ukraine -

WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures with light to moderate rain through the 10 day period.

RUMINT –
President Zelensky says he has information that Russia has planted bombs at Kakhovska Hydropower plant and plans to blow up it, calls for international mission to prevent a disaster.

Russian sources claim Ukraine has a 4:1 advantage in northern Kherson. Normally a 3:1 advantage is desired for a successful offensive operation.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Very little reporting in the region. Drone attacks are down, fighting on the ground the same. Quiet, too quiet.

Kyiv front ——
NSR

Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
Scattered and sporadic Russian artillery.

Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
NSR, the offensive in this sector appears to be in a pause mode..

Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued attacks centering on Bakhmut but also around Donetsk. Heaviest Russian artillery fire in this sector.

Crimean front ———
Explosions were reported near Antonivsky bridge in Kherson. Speculation that Russian officers, their families and collaborators were crossing the Dnipir via nearby pontoon bridge.

No details on any Ukranian action in northern Kherson Oblast. Sporatic artillery along the LOC.

Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR

Russian Territory -—
NSR

Partisan Resistance ——
NSR - but don’t let that fool you, there are plenty of unconfirmed reports of rear area attacks crossed Russian occupied territory.

OUTLOOK ——
This relative calm can’t last for long and I expect things to pick up again soon. Watching Kherson as well as Belarus activity.


Belarus -

On 14 October 2022, Belarussian president Aleksandr Lukashenko said that 70,000 Belarusian troops and up to 15,000 Russians would be involved in a new Russian-Belarussian Group of Forces.

OBSERVATION – I said 70K Russians in past posts, that is in error, that number is Belarus. The announcement is likely an attempt to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border.

A senior Ukrainian military official says there is growing danger that Russia will open a new front in the war through its coordination with Belarus, using it to cut military supplies to Ukraine.
“The threat of the Russian armed forces resuming the offensive on the northern front is growing,” Oleksii Hromov, a senior official in the military’s General Staff, said Thursday.
“This time, the direction of the offensive may be changed to the (western part) of the Belarusian-Ukrainian border to cut the main logistics arteries of supplying weapons and military equipment to Ukraine from partner countries,” Hromov said.

OBSERVATION – This correlates to the predominantly anti-Polish rhetoric of recent days. I also observed that Russian air strikes on the supply chain from Poland was not having the effect desired, and that an attack southward toward Kviv and the Polish border would be necessary to cut off those supply lines. This plan would work if the Belarus and Russian forces were competent – which they are not. But they may just try in an effort to divert resources from Ukrainian offenses in the east and south.

Radio Svoboda reports that in recent days medics, doctors and nurses in Belarus have been called to military offices

OBSERVATION – Interesting unconfirmed report. Definitely an indicator that Belarus may actually do something very stupid.


Israel -

Israeli Prime Minister Lapid told Ukrainian foreign minister Kuleba that Israel is concerned by the deepening military cooperation between Russia and Iran


Iran -

Riots/protests continue across the country

IRGC ‘advisors’ are in Crimea providing instruction on how to use Iranian provided drones and other offensive weapons systems.



753 posted on 10/21/2022 5:27:38 AM PDT by Godzilla (Never give up, never surrender . . . . . .)
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