So much out there make it hard to pick out the key items.
Globalism / Great Reset -
Although biden has declared the wuhan crisis ‘over’, he still maintains the July 15 official “public health emergency” declaration, which gives the federal government sweeping expanded powers and lets them unilaterally spend billions more on welfare, through October 13. And Biden is expected to extend this declaration again through the midterm elections.
OBSERVATION - Said it once, say it again, It’s about power, not the disease.
The WEF kicked off its Sustainable Development Impact Meetings on Monday in New York, hosting a technocratic tyranny themed confab (under the guise of a continuing “climate crisis”) on the sidelines of the annual U.N. General Assembly meetings.
The WEF, which serves as the narratives and ideas shop of the global ruling class, helped to popularize movements such as The Great Reset and the Build Back Better campaign, among other maneuvers designed to “transition” the world to a system of authoritarian “global governance.”
In New York, the WEF’s programming features the “climate crisis” front and center, as WEF President Klaus Schwab and his cantillionaire compatriots clearly understand this movement as the best opportunity to hoover up the remaining rights and property of individuals and nations.
Two panels slated to run Tuesday will feature big names at MSNBC and CNN. MSNBC anchor Stephanie Ruhle will headline the “green transition” and “the future of work panel.” Another panel, titled “tackling disinformation,” will showcase CNN VP Rachel Smolkin.
On Wednesday, the WEF will host a “Web3’s Climate Impact” meeting. Web3 is a term coined by one of the cofounders of Ethereum, a digital asset that was recently reengineered into the foundation for a potential global Central Bank Digital Currency.
https://dossier.substack.com/p/wef-hosts-new-york-climate-crisis
OBSERVATION - The pivot is clearly evident here. Backed by WEF’s statement of success in forcing billions to give up rights under the wuhan plandemic, they are moving on to climate crisis as a vehicle to press their agenda and gain more leverage on the global community.
A special note is the inclusion of a Ethereum-based digital currency for global use. Keep this in mind with the WEF/GGR’s desire to track individual cabin foot prints. Folloiing China’s social credit system, exceed your carbon allotment and you will be denied use of your funds.
The Guardian reports that poor nations demand the UN consider a global tax for “climate-related and justice-based” tax on big fossil fuel users and air travel. The Left is not fond of air travel, except for the elite. The same goes for sea travel.
The poor countries, probably with much encouragement from the Davos crowd, demand the richest countries (i.e. the US) fork over taxes for using fossil fuels and flying and their allegedly irrecoverable losses.
The idea is wealthy nations, especially the US, cause the climate to change. We also give them billions in aid and other assistance.
OBSERVATION - Again, another control measure by the WEF/GGR crowd for a massive wealth redistribution. Biden agreed to a 15% minimum global tax in June 2021 amid talks of exemptions for China. They also talked about exemptions for certain corporations (ESG compliant). Normalcy bias screams this isn’t happening - but folks it is and is on its way, faster than we would like.
Schools are proselytizing for transgender ideology, and medical centers are seeking out younger and younger patients to “help” with their procedures. Some are now seeking children as young as four to begin transformation.
OBSERVATION - This hellish drive to transition as many as possible has a dual purpose to the GGR crowd. First it drives a wedge into the family and traditional judo-christian standards.
Second, it accomplishes a desire to decrease the population of the world, as these children after undergoing ‘transition’ would be unable to procreate as adults.
Wuhan virus -
Since the rollout of the COVID-19 mRNA and DNA injections, reports of neuromyelitis, multiple sclerosis, Guillain-Barre syndrome, rheumatoid arthritis, shingles, lupus, diabetes, and many other autoimmune conditions have either suddenly appeared, or relapsed, often with worsened symptoms.
In the case of COVID-19 and its vaccines, many studies since the start of the pandemic have shown that the spike protein shares similarities with human proteins both in its structure and in its basic chemical sequence. This means the spike protein can increase the risk of developing autoimmunity and implies that the mRNA and DNA vaccines, which cause the body to make large amounts of spike protein, would do the same. “If the spike protein from SARS-CoV-2 contribute to autoimmunity, then why not spike protein from the vaccine? It seems that somehow when we get to that point, the scientists and many people try to keep their distance,” said Dr. Aristo Vojdani, head of Immunosciences Lab and a pioneer in the field of clinical immunology.
OBSERVATION - Shortly after the state of the wuhan jab phase of the pandemic, concerns were raised about how the mRNA appears to impact the human immune system negatively by suppressing the natural system. With the came warnings of a possible Autoimmune Diseases interactions. These concerns were washed over by the CDC et al as misinformation, but inquiring minds are now bringing these to the forefront with clinical proofs and evidences. More and more it is apparent that the jab is a deliberate attack on humanity for a minor disease.
Economy -
Walmart, Target and other big retailers are cancelling billions of dollars in orders and paring down their inventories apparently in anticipation of a significant recession by years end. Same retailers have an excess of inventory and conducting sales to reduce that as well.
OBSERVATION - General consensus I’ve read indicates that they don’t want to get caught with too much merchandise (at a high price) when the economy goes south.
The median household income in the United States declined 2.8 percent from 2019 to 2021, dropping from $72,808 in 2019 (in constant 2021 dollars) to $70,784 in 2021, according to newly released data from the Census Bureau.
OBSERVATION - This is probably understated, inflation has hit the middle and lower classes hard.
A Barclays survey finds that consumers expect the price of oil to fluctuate between $80-$100 in 2023. Barclays’ latest forecast is that oil will average $94 in 2023, citing production cuts by OPEC+ nations.
OBSERVATION - continued high gas prices in a very volatile market.
Invasion of Illegals -
The Martha’s Vineyard gig was so embarrassing to liberals that they are now trying to find a way to prosecute Texas and Florida governors for shipping illegals to blue sanctuary cities.
IN RELATED - Jonathan Turley threw cold water on the lefts cries to prosecute under human trafficking said. “If that was the case, then Joe Biden would be the biggest coyote ever. Right? I mean he’s transferring thousands of people across the country, also public interest organizations transfer migrants. All of them are saying, as they need to, and need to establish, that this is done with their consent, but there are rational reasons why migrants would want to go to New York or Chicago and away from these border areas,” he said
OBSERVATION - Make the left live by the rules they created. . . .
“Failing communist regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba are driving a new wave of migration across the Western Hemisphere, including the recent increase in encounters at the southwest U.S. border,” said Customs and Border Commissioner Chris Magnus in a news release announcing yet another month of 200,000-plus foreigners crossing the southwest border.
RELATED - For the first time, migrant encounters at the border have surpassed two million in one year. CBP reports there were 203,598 migrant encounters at the border in August, bringing the total for FY’22 to 2,150,370, and there is still one month left to go.”
“Failing communist regimes in Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba are driving a new wave of migration across the Western Hemisphere, including the recent increase in encounters at the southwest U.S. border,” Customs and Border Protection Commissioner Chris Magnus, said in a statement.
OBSERVATION - NEW MILESTONE over 2 million in one year. Many are noting that Venezuela in particular is pushing violent criminals out of their prisons and sending them north to the US.
Biden / Harris watch -
biden was seated 14 rows back, behind many he sees as beneath him. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his wife were seated near the front, The King of Jordan and his wife were seated in the 5th row, the Emperor and Empress of Japan were seated in the 6th row, and Poland’s president was seated in the row ahead of Joe and Jill.
OBSERVATION - America Last, 0bama would be proud.
With the WH having to jump to contradict POTUS’s publicly stated policy positions in a soft ball interview, raises questions about who actually runs the executive branch.
CW2/Domestic violence -
The Federal Bureau of Investigation is allegedly fabricating evidence again, this time the “white supremacist threat” according to whistle blowers. It is the slur of preference by any on the left to describe opposing views.
OBSERVATION - Though the deep state’s desire to designate domestic terrorist started overtly during 0bama, it has accelerated ten fold in just the past couple years under biden. These recent revelations strongly suggest that a foundation is being laid by which the govt can crack down on conservatives and others who won’t toe the marxist democrat party line. Given the apparent willingness of the FBI to support this ploy, soon to be reinforced by 87,000 IRS special agents (many of which may see themselves as 007 types) the threat of govt stepping over the line further and using lethal force on these designated enemies of democracy comes closer and closer.
IN RELATED - The ATF requested a 13% increase to its 2023 budget to fund an expansion of enforcement, an increase in oversight of Federal Firearms Licensees (FFL), a national gun database, the reclassification of 40,000,000 AR-15 pistols as NFA items, and an increase to the annual stipend for agents killed in the field to $50,000 per year.
OBSERVATION - The ATF and the left have developed back door methods to create defacto gun database through numerous mans to avoid breaking the clearly stated law against such. These items will be viciously opposed in court by second amendment supporters and organizations. In the current atmosphere, the USSC has made it relative clear that the ATF would lose these cases. But then again, lawlessness pervades the current administration and alphabet agencies.
Portland Antifa continues to demolish the city to make it ungovernable. Most recently are attacks on businesses that don’t toe their political agenda for increased homelessness and crime.
The pro-gun Leftist John Brown Gun Club (JBGC) announced two chapters in the past week: Space City, in the Cape Canaveral area of Florida, and Santa Barabara, California. Both chapters are focusing on medical training as their first initiative. These trainings are used as outreach, networking, and recruiting sessions. (FO)
OBSERVATION - This is a continued action by the left to try to counter the armed advantage of conservatives and in particular rural conservatives by activating leftists in these red areas.
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The USS Ronald Reagan is set to visit South Korea this week in a show of force following North Korea’s latest round of nuclear threats. The aircraft carrier and its battle group will conduct joint military readiness drills with its South Korean counterparts to show “the firm resolve by the Korea-U.S. alliance for the sake of peace and stability on the Korean peninsula,” according to a South Korean navy spokesperson. This will be the first joint military exercise since 2017 when the U.S. sent three carrier strike groups to the region following a North Korean nuclear test.
China -
Beijing says it “deplores” the US president’s latest interview, in which he indicated Washington’s readiness to defend Taiwan.
China is apparently going to issue some kind of stimulus ‘voucher’ to try to kick start its struggling economy. Other financial moves are being made to minimize influence from western investors and make things more domestically driven.
North/South Korea -
See”Strategic Activity / Deployments’ above Re: USS Reagan
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now well into its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the their defeat, Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Retreat of Russian forces have reversed 5 months worth of effort and resulted in huge losses of equipment.
********
Bad days continue for putin.
Word is coming out that Russian occupied territories are going to have a flash referendum to become part of Russia is being floated. The rush being caused by the Ukrainian successful offensive in the east and the threat of similar in the south. This could give justification for Russia to more formally mobilize to defend Russian ‘territory’ versus the current ‘special operation’. Such could increase their ability to muster a larger military force.
RUMINT -
A recent leaked report from the Russian Ministry of Finance completed in late August gave the Russian army’s “special military operations” in Ukraine some death toll numbers. According to this report, the Russian government needs to allocate 361 billion rubles for the pensions of the fallen Russian troops, an average of about 7 million rubles per person, and a total of 48,759 dead. A common estimate of wounded is 3 times the death rate - in this case some where near 150,000.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- The Duma is reportedly passing a bill to increase punishment on disrupters as well as Russian who allow themselves to be captured and become POWs. Included are more strict rules to force more into signing on to the Ukraine fight.
Economic Impact -
- Turkish lenders Isbank and Denizbank have suspended use of Russian payment system Mir, the banks said, following a U.S. crackdown on those accused of helping Moscow skirt sanctions over the war in Ukraine.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and increasing rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud. The first snow fell in the Carpathian Mountains in southeastern Ukraine - winter is coming and it will not go well for Russian forces.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Ukraine keeps pushing in Kharkiv Oblast and is out maneuvering Russian forces attempting to defend Lyman. More gains also reported in the Kherson offensive. Artillery appears to be more sporadic though concentrated around the Bakhmut.
Russian also continues its attacks around Bakhmut, making minor south of the city. Heaviest Russian artillery is concentrated from Lyman and around to the Donetsk region.
Occupation authorities in parts of Kherson and Luhansk region to hold fake poll on annexation by Russian Federation.
The organization overseeing the export of agricultural products from Ukraine said that so far 163 vessels have left the besieged country since ports reopened. The Joint Coordination Center, an initiative of Ukraine, Russia, the United Nations and Turkey, said the ships transported a total of 3.6 million metric tons of grain and other food products.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts - —
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Ukrainian offensive works to secure supposing lines coming into Lyman as it maneuvers to surround the city.
Head of regional administration of Luhansk region Haidai: Ukrainian military have liberated and fully secured Bilohorivka in Luhansk region , east of Lysychansk.
Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidai says Ukraine has struck the Russian base in Kadiivka and equipment and troops in Novoaidarsk
Donetsk Oblast ——
Explosion at Russian military base in Alchevsk.
Crimean front ———
Occupation authorities in Kherson region are calling for immediate referendum on annexation by Russian Federation. Minor progress by Ukrainian forces. Shelling and explosions in Kozatske, Kherson region
Rumors that Russia is trying to establish a defensive line east of the Dnipir suggests that they are continuing to take the offensive in Kherson Oblast seriously and may be taking measures to prevent the rout of forces seen in Kharkiv.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
Big column of smoke visible from Shebekino town in Belgorod region
Partisan Resistance ——
.Ukrainian partisans reportedly used an IED to kill collaborationist policeman Denys Stefanok in Melitopol on September 18
OUTLOOK ——
Well, yesterday’s hub-bub concerning Ukraine offensive in the east turned out to be mostly false. But OTOH Ukraine is progressing to start the apparent liberation of Luhansk while maneuvering to complete the liberation of Kharkiv Oblast.
Russian will continue to attack in the Bakhmut area, attacks that military analysts scratch their heads over since they do little to stop the Ukrainian offensives or gain tacitly significant territory.
OVERALL - I expect more of the same in the near term. Ukraine is claiming its offensive will have Kharkiv Oblast liberated and secured by the end of the month and I see them on track to do so, out maneuvering Russian forces all along the front. I see Russia being pressed even more around Lyman and eastward towards Lysychansk. Such a break through would once again permit Ukraine to romp through Russian rear areas.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Protests have broken out Moldova over consumer energy costs, with protestors denouncing the government for failing to reach a fair energy deal with Russia.
OBSERVATION - More evidence that this may well be a very dark winter throughout Europe as well as the rest of the world as citizens face energy shortages and higher prices for essential items like food and fuel.
Europe / NATO General -
Citing concerns of government corruption, European Union officials announced the organization had suspended funding to the Republic of Hungary.
Pakistan -
At a public rally, former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan declared a revolution is at hand in Pakistan. Citing the ongoing crisis caused by widespread flooding and political upheaval, Khan said the Pakistani people “wanted a peaceful revolution through the ballot.” Khan, who was previously accused of terrorism by the Pakistani government and opposition officials, called on all parties to respect the ongoing ‘peaceful revolution’ in Pakistan, warning that any resistance might eliminate all stakeholders by changing its course.
OBSERVATION - I told you so. The flooding disaster and associated economic disaster that is Pakistan will result in people like Kahn trying to take advantage of the situation for their own benefit. BTW - Khan is the cause for the economic turmoil - the reason he was kicked out of the PM position to begin with. He still has a substantial number of followers.
Israel -
The High Holy Days. Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur are arriving the end of this month and Israel has been warning citizens of potential terror attacks both at home and abroad.
Iran -
On the third day of the protest against the murder of ]Mahsa Amini by the IRI, protests have spread to Rasht, Mashhad, Bukan, Tehran, Saqz, Karaj, Divandareh and Isfahan.
Syria -
AFA the Syrian civil war, things have been relatively quiet lately. Turkey’s increased attacks against Kurds in the north haven’t panned out to much either.
Misc of Note -
Cat 3 Hurricane Fiona has pivoted northward and is barreling toward the Turks and Caicos Islands. It is not anticipated to hit the US mainland but run up the east coast off shore.
Hump day - its all down hill from here both figuratively and literally.
Globalism / Great Reset -
The CEO of the BlackRock investment firm said that skyrocketing energy prices are shrinking the “green premium” and causing more investment to flow into green energy sources.
Larry Fink was being interviewed by former President Bill Clinton as part of the Clinton Global Initiative when he made the comments in defense of ESG environmental scoring.
“Because of the rise in energy prices, we are certainly seeing the green premium shrink quite considerably,” said Fink.
“And so the amount of investment dollars that are going into new decarbonization technologies is accelerating, and they are accelerating very rapidly,” he added.
Despite admitting that ESG is worsening the energy crisis, Fink went on to say that the crisis is causing instability across the world. “In the next seven months, we are in a transition,” said Fink.
“And it’s not gonna be a pretty transition. We have food insecurity worldwide, which is going to be creating more elevated crisis. We have not yet seen all the increases that we should expect to see in food. We have imbalances in energy right now in the short term,” he explained.
He went on to say that there is a lack of hope in the world and a growing fear because of economic instability.
OBSERVATION - Let us not forget that Fink is one of the prime creators of this instability and insecurity - by leveraging BlackRock’s massive assets to force corporations/companies to embrace green.
Note also the ‘lack of hope’ - this is what the GGR/WEF cabal wants to exploit then they finally pull the trigger to institute a global world order.
Wuhan virus -
A CDC study conducted by several doctors from the University of Colorado has found that Covid-19 vaccination can cause children to suffer Vaccine-Associated Enhanced Disease (V-AED), and further analysis of the confidential Pfizer documents forcibly published by court order reveals both Pfizer and the U.S. Food & Drug Administration (FDA) knew it would happen.
OBSERVATION - The evidence continues to gather that adverse/deadly reactions to the jab were known and covered up. The govt is complicit in all of this, so don’t expect it to start arresting people. Justice will only occur when lawsuits build up against Phizer et al and key players in the govt such as Fauci.
Economy -
The Federal Reserve began its two-day meeting Tuesday, and economists expect the central bank to announce a third consecutive three-quarter point rate hike. “This is really moving into restrictive monetary policy territory. We will be moving into no man’s land,” said one economist. “We actually haven’t tightened policy to fight inflation since the early 1980s.” It will also release quarterly forecasts for inflation, the economy, and the future path of interest rates Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell bluntly warned in a speech last month that the rate hikes would “bring some pain.”
“He has done everything he possibly can to signal that it’s going to be another aggressive move,” said Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi. “He’s been clear as a bell about what they’ve been focused on.”
The Fed is expected to raise its key short-term rate by a substantial three-quarters of a point for the third time at its meeting on Wednesday. That would lift its benchmark rate, which affects many consumer and business loans, to a range of 3% to 3.25%, the highest level in 14 years, and up from zero at the start of the year.
OBSERVATION - Markets and analysts are already concerned that the Feds super aggressive track to reign in inflation will over shoot the reality by a wide margin, creating a sever recession. Financial sector and businesses are beginning to position themselves to weather out such a recession.
“The average household will pay about 17% more this winter to heat their property, reaching a 10-year high of about $1,200 per home, according to a forecast from the nonprofit National Energy Assistance Directors Association,” CBS News reported Monday.
OBSERVATION - Here in my corner of the Redoubt utility prices are tightly controlled, so prices wouldn’t go up a dramatically as other places. However, this winter in addition to relying more on the wood stove, sweaters, lap blankets and wooly socks will be the greater norm as the thermostat is lowered.
The Food and Drug Administration acknowledged Tuesday that its response to the U.S. infant formula shortage was slowed by delays in processing a whistleblower complaint and test samples from the nation’s largest formula factory.
OBSERVATION - Bureaucratic incompetence and in some ways deliberate feet dragging. The most “powerful nation on earth” cannot feed its infants. The nation wide shortage is gradually easing, but this episode shows that it can easily be tipped over again.
Oil prices are up as much as 2% following Putin’s declaration of national mobilization. Growing concern over escalation in the Ukraine war could push fuel prices much higher.
Invasion of Illegals -
Border Patrol stopped a dozen individuals whose names are on the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Database (TSDB) in August, bringing the total for the fiscal year to a number that is triple the previous five fiscal years combined.
CW2/Domestic violence -
74-year-old Fred Sargeant was one of the original activists for gay rights. He organized the first gay rights march in New York City in the 70s and was a participant in the Stonewall riots. Sargeant is a member of the LGB Alliance, which is a gay rights group that is opposed to the trans/queer movement. He attended a Pride parade in Burlington, Vt., on Sunday. He silently held a sign that read “Gay, Not Queer” and handed out pamphlets outlining objections to the trans movement. For this transgression, he was hit, knocked to the ground, and had coffee poured over his head. His sign was taken, and he walked with the aid of his cane down the street to retrieve it. At that point, the above-mentioned beat-down was administered. In addition to the attack, parade participants stole roughly $600 of Sargeant’s personal property.
OBSERVATION - There has been a growing chasm between the basic LGB and the Trans communities and has increasingly become violent. This is one example. Often backed up by Antifa, militant trans protest (often counter protests) have targeted LGB rallies and even feminists rallies to enforce the trans tyranny on those sectors of sexual life. Basically, the foundational rub is that both LGB and feminists recognize two biological sexes, mail and female and that one cannot simply via hormones and surgery change that. Trans claim otherwise and often find support from even further deprived elements such as transpecies and pedophiles.
Republican state attorneys general are warning major credit card companies not to pursue a new code that would identify retail firearms purchases, The Wall Street Journal reported.
Attorneys general from 23 red states on Tuesday are expected to send a letter to Visa, Mastercard, and American Express to say that the card companies’ plan to add the code could result in misuse of consumer data and would not protect the public, WSJ reported.
Tennessee Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti and Montana Attorney General Austin Knudsen led the effort to notify the companies, who earlier this month said they would add a new merchant-category code (MCC) for firearms retailers.
Sen. Roger Marshall, R.-Kan., recently sent a letter to the CEOs of the three credit card companies saying that lawmakers would intercede to prevent businesses from doing “an end run” around the Second Amendment. The letter was signed by 11 other GOP senators.
WSJ reported that some executives privately have expressed concerns that the firearms MCC could lead to the creation of more codes, such as one for abortion providers.
The new MCC recently was approved by an international entity that sets standards for the payments industry, WSJ said.
OBSERVATION - These codes will be misused by the corrupt in power -that is assured. If there is a national divorce, the 23 Red states that commonly have been opposing biden et al will form the core of a new republic.
POLITICAL FRONT -
With Biden declaring an end to the COVID-19 pandemic, Republicans are asking why the Biden administration won’t give up its emergency powers. The GOP is seeking an end to the federal vaccine mandates, in particular, and plans to block Democrat efforts to add an additional $22.4 billion in COVID relief funding in the Continuing Resolution .
Strategic Activity / Deployments -
The US Air Force will roll out its new B-21 stealth bomber the “first week of December,” Andrew Hunter, the head of USAF acquisition says
China -
Chinese President Xi Jinping is planning to describe at the upcoming once-in-five-years congress of the ruling Communist Party the reunification of self-ruled democratic Taiwan with the mainland as a long-term goal, according to party and government sources.
A plan has been studied for Xi to state at the congress next month that the reunification would be indispensable to realizing Beijing’s goal of attaining “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation,” which the leader aims to bring about by the mid-21th century, according to the sources.
Xi is widely expected to secure an unprecedented third five-year term as general secretary of the party at the congress convened on Oct. 16 and a plan has been examined for a reference to Taiwan reunification to be included in an activity report that will be released by the Chinese leader, the sources said.
OBSERVATION - Xi has been playing the long game but still has serious economic concerns to deal with.
China’s coal imports from Russia reached 8.54 million tons in August and represent a soaring energy demand emerging from the world’s second-largest economy. China’s coal trade with Russia is up 57% over the same period last year and the highest since authorities began collecting data in 2017. Overall Russian energy imports rose above 60% when including oil and natural gas. (FO)
OBSERVATION - China cashing in on Russia’s need for money during the current crisis with Ukraine.
Japan -
Japan PM Kishida: U.N.’s credibility is in danger because of invasion of Ukraine by a permanent Security Council member
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now well into its seventh month of fighting since starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - With the their defeat, Russian forces in Kharkiv Oblast, its ability to sustain its offensive to capture the Donbas region is in jeopardy. Retreat of Russian forces have reversed 5 months worth of effort and resulted in huge losses of equipment.
********
Bad days continue for putin.
Two issues hit Russia overnight. The first was Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions simultaneously announcing referendums on becoming part of Russia between September 23 and 27, with the sham votes expected to easily pass.
Dmitry Medvedev, a staunch Putin ally, then vowed ‘all forces of self-defence’ will be used to protect what he called ‘Russian territory’ - teeing up a new phase in the conflict involving weapons and tactics the Kremlin has so-far held in reserve.
Underlining that point, Moscow’s rubber-stamp parliament passed new laws paving the war for Putin to end his ‘special military operation’ and officially declare a war, allowing him to mobilize Russia’s massive population into the army.
Following the referendum announcements, there is a massive stock market crash on the Russian stock exchange with Twitter rapidly noting -
“The Russian stock market began to collapse after referendums were announced.”
“Russian stock market crashed due to rumors about general mobilization.”
The second issue concerned an announcement late yesterday afternoon that putin was going to address the nation. The initial time slot was abandoned for one early this morning. Kremlin-watchers have been left baffled by Putin’s last-minute cancellation of a major national speech that was expected to announce the full mobilization of Russia’s military. Putin’s failure to appear came amid ongoing speculation about a sharp deterioration in his health. His announcement was pre-recorded,. just like the announcement of the initiation of war in Ukraine.
Initial speculation was that putin was going to announce a full scale mobilization of war against Ukraine. Before Putin’s address, Russians began to take an active interest in how to leave the country. And also deferments from the army. Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul, Yerevan and other places quickly sold out. Russian airlines since have stopped selling tickets to Russian men aged 18 to 65 unless they can provide evidence of approval to travel from the Ministry of Defense.
Russian media is warning that participants in “illegal rallies” will be subjected to military conscription as well.
Finally, Putin announced what some have called a “partial” mobilization in Russia. A 300,000 call up.
“Only citizens who are currently in the reserve and, above all, those who served in the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience, will be subject to conscription.“
According to Russian law, since the start of mobilization (Putin’s decree published and in force), all eligible men (25M) are prohibited to leave their areas without document from enlistment office.
Defense Minister Shoigu put the number at 300.000 additional troops to be called in announced mobilization. Shoigu explicitly confirming, “only reservists who served, and has military experience or speciality will be mobilised”, later adding “and we have 25 000 000 men who served, and has military experience or speciality”
Not 1, 2 millions, but ALL MEN in Russia before 60 years.
Initial evaluation of this proclamation has several angles. First, though the term ‘partial’ has been assigned to it Shoigu’s comments but isn’t in the actual document, which the context of what he said suggesting that 300,000 is only a start - softening the full mobilization threat.
Secondly, the fact that putin has to mandate a mobilization indicates that the voluntary sign up of forces has not come close to meeting the needs to support the Ukrainian war.
Third, this proclamation is just short of declaring full war, and not just maintaining a ‘special operation’.
Fourth, there is apparently resistance by the population to such a draft.
Finally, the Duma says there will be no general mobilization, despite amendments to the laws on mobilization. Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee however does not rule out martial law in certain regions of Russia bordering Ukraine to “protect civilians”.
Having to reevaluate the Russian nuclear threat in light of these recent developments. Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons in response to attacks on Russian territory. Since Russia is about to claim parts of Ukraine’s Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as its own, this could mean that Kyiv’s attempts to retake its sovereign territory could provoke a nuclear response from Moscow. Very concerning rhetoric.
I think the danger of Russian nuke use has stepped up a notch with the latest events. “When the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people. This is not a bluff,” Putin said.
putin may be hoping the threat alone will cause Ukraine and NATO to pause and backoff its current offensives, in part because it will take several months at the least to muster the 300,000, train, equip and deploy them to Ukraine. putin will need a pause otherwise by the time they get there most of Russia’s gains could be lost. However, it hasn’t worked so far. There seems to be a degree of incased desperation now.
And this on top of the probability that Russia may not have enough equipment to actually take this more drastic step in increasing manpower. Units currently are already relying on pre-Ratnik gear and T-62Ms from the 70s and 80s. Its war production severely hampered by sanctions.
Logistics -
- The government of the Russian Federation must immediately solve the problem of financial support for the defense industry in order to increase the production of weapons, Putin says - TASS
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Due to a lack of personnel, the Russian authorities have decided to withdraw units of the 217th Airborne Regiment from Syria and transfer them to the frontline in Ukraine, the General Staff said.
Economic Impact -
- The EU is reportedly preparing new sanctions on Russia over the annexation referenda in Ukraine
- “In August, the budget system went into deficit. Now budgets of all levels spend more money than they receive taxes” - Minister of Economic Development of Russia Reshetnikov
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Cool temperatures in the 60s and increasing rain over the 10 day forecast period. Images on social media show soil conditions starting to revert to Ukrainian mud. The first snow fell in the Carpathian Mountains in southeastern Ukraine - winter is coming and it will not go well for Russian forces.
RUMINT -
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
The events in Russia over shadow operations in Ukraine - see above. Relatively little change tactically addressed below.
Kyiv front ——
NSR
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts ——
NSR
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Fighting continues as Ukraine presses approaches to and around Lyman.
Russian base with ammunition depot was destroyed in Svatove of Luhansk region.
Explosions reported in Novoaidar of Luhansk region
Russia reportedly shot 7 rockets at targets in Kharkiv region, possibly reaching the Pechenezh reservoir dam. This represents a continuation of recent Russian attacks on dams and electrical power sites.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russians continue unproductive attacks along the line from Bakhmut to Donetsk. Most of Russia’s artillery fire along the same line.
Big fire at Shirokiy district in Russian occupied Donetsk.
Russian missiles struck Zaporizhzhia.
Crimean front ———
Russian artillery attempts to counter progressive, though small, Ukrainian gains in the region.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
NSR
Russian Territory -—
NSR
Partisan Resistance ——
NSR
OUTLOOK ——
With the potential of a “referendum” by to annex captured portions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, partisan resistance my step it up against Russian placed municipal authorities and collaborators to sabotage the efforts.
Ukraine offensive will continue with the greatest focus on the battle to retake Lyman.
Russia has apparently stepped up its attacks on major power systems like dams and coal power plants - I expect this to continue.
Belarus -
There is no need for mobilization in Belarus, - State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council, - “we are ready to fight back with peacetime personnel”.
Russian-Belarusian consultations on security are ongoing in Moscow, - the Security Council of the Russian Federation
OBSERVATION - At this stage, Russia may be turning the screws to get Belarus into the fight. This could resume the direct ground assault threat against Kyiv. However, Belarus forces are reportedly among the worst trained and prepared in Europe.
Lithuania’s Minister of National Defence states that as Russia’s military mobilization will also take place near our borders, (Kaliningrad region), Lithuania’s Rapid Reaction Force is being put on high alert to prevent any provocation from Russia.
The European Union considers the decision to announce partial military mobilization in Russia a “state of desperation” It is also reportedly preparing new sanctions on Russia over the annexation referenda in Ukraine
Russian nationals living in Estonia will have their firearms forcibly confiscated by the police if they refuse to hand them over voluntarily under a new law.
The gun confiscation measure will also apply to Belarusians living in the eastern European country.
The government has finalized the details of the bill and it will be put before the legislature, after which it is expected to be voted into law.
EU leaders expressed solidarity with Ukraine in opposition to the “referendums” in Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts to separate and join Russia.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
The President of Serbia has warned that the planet is entering into a “great world conflict” that could take place within the next two months.
Aleksandar Vucic made the alarming comments during the first day of the UN General Assembly session in New York.
“You see a crisis in every part of the world,” Vucic told the Serbian state broadcaster RTS.
“I think realistic predictions ought to be even darker,” he added. “Our position is even worse, since the UN has been weakened and the great powers have taken over and practically destroyed the UN order over the past several decades.”
The Serbian leader cautioned that the war between Russia and Ukraine had moved on to a far deadlier phase.
“I assume that we’re leaving the phase of the special military operation and approaching a major armed conflict, and now the question becomes where is the line, and whether after a certain time – maybe a month or two, even – we will enter a great world conflict not seen since the Second World War,” he said.
OBSERVATION - As an ally of Russia, Serbia may have an insider’s view to longer range Russian plans. But he is correction one point - the whole world is convulsing on crisis of one kind or another, many focused around energy and food.
NATO KFOR in Kosovo is making operational preparations in the event violence breaks out between Kosovo and Serbia as the October 30th deadline on a controversial license plate and vehicle registration mandate approaches. KFOR currently has about 3,700 troops on the ground and the General in charge has said reserve forces should be ready to deploy to reinforce it if things go south.
Syria -
There is no plan for the withdrawal of Turkish forces from Syria’s Idlib governorate and Aleppo countryside, a Turkish military source told a meeting of opposition factions in northwestern Syria.
Venezuela -
The UN says President Maduro is directing security agencies to arrest and torture political opponents. Abuses are also rife in the south, where gold mining profits have put a target on the backs of indigenous peoples. The report says Maduro and United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) leader Diosdado Cabello regularly give orders to intelligence services to target specific individuals — often opposition, student and protest leaders, journalists and people working for NGOs. These people are often surveilled, investigated and then subjected to “cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment,” sometimes for days or weeks on end.
OBSERVATION - Anyone else see similarities to what the DoJ/FBI/DHS is starting to do here????
Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijan used to be one of the largest buyers of wheat from Russia. Russia hasn’t sent any wheat since January to Azerbaijan according to the Russian Grain Union.
OBSERVATION - One tool Russia has to help defend Armenia, food.