Authorities arrested (Illegals) 52-year-old Julio Alvarado-Dubon and 38-year-old Roman Balacarcel, who allegedly planned to shoot up Richmond’s Fourth of July celebration. ....Both were from from 'Guatemala'.
Kind of short today.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
Farmers across the Netherlands have continued to protest the nation’s draconian climate change policies that will destroy the livelihoods of thousands of farmers. Dutch farmers have used farm equipment to block entrances to food distribution centers, highways and airports. The ongoing protests have led to empty supermarket shelves across the nation.
Now the country’s fishermen have joined the fray as well -
As of next year, fishing permits will be given out on the basis of eco-friendliness of the trawler the fisherman is using…. They have blocked harbours [sic] in solidarity with the farmers.
OBSERVATION - GGR would have empty shelves one way to the other.
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Wuhan virus -
Using weekly data on excess mortality in New Zealand, a study published last week set out to analyse the impacts of rolling out booster doses of Covid injections. It found that age groups most likely to have had booster Covid injections had 7-10% more excess mortality than the age groups most likely not to have taken up a booster dose.
OBSERVATION - The “excess mortality” observation is present across the globe linked to the jab. As the medical community continues to examine the ‘why’, more and more it becomes inescapable the the jab is the cause.
The case reports included in Pfizer clinical trial documents, released June 1 by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, reveal a trend of classifying almost all adverse events — and in particular severe adverse events — as being “not related” to the vaccine.
The Case Report Forms (CRFs) from Pfizer Phase 3 trials contain often vague explanations of the specific symptoms experienced by the trial participants. They also reveal a trend of classifying almost all adverse events — and in particular severe adverse events (SAEs) — as being “not related” to the vaccine.
OBSERVATION - This information , part of a freedom of information act lawsuit, shows a continuing trend of malfeasance by Phizer as well as the federal govt in pushing this dangerous ‘vaccine’ onto the American people. Not a legal beagle, but demonstrated fraud may well cause Phizer’s immunity clause from lawsuits to be stripped away. These and other documents that have come out lay a good foundation for that fraud.
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Economy -
The average price for a gallon of regular-grade fuel slid to $4.77 in the week that ended Monday, according to the Energy Information Administration. The reading marked a third straight weekly decline and put the nationwide average nearly 5% below the mid-June peak of $5.01 a gallon.
OBSERVATION - Analysts say the reason for the drop is sudden drop in demand plus global fears of a recession driving price of crude down.
The recent “State of the Rails” report indicates that the four major freight haulers - UPRR, BNSF CSX and Norfolk Southern - are struggling to keep up with shipping demands. Part of the issue is the lack of crews to run trains, another is the lack of truckers to transport goods delivered to modal sites, creating storage backups.
The Biden Administration is expected to mandate on Thursday that state’s set explicit targets for reducing tailpipe emissions for vehicles using the national highway system. Biden’s Federal Highway Administration, which is part of the US Transportation Department under transit secretary Pete Buttigieg, told Reuters that states must “set targets that work for their respective climate change policies and other policy priorities, so long as they are in line with the net-zero goals by 2050 set forth in this rule.” This new provision would require state transportation agencies to set these declining targets and then report on incremental progress.
OBSERVATION - The guideline is another strict measure in Biden’s American energy policy, similar to the previous overreach of the EPA in limiting emissions that the Supreme Court recently struck down.
The number of Americans filing initial jobless claims rose to a six-month high last week, government data show, while a separate report showed that the number of job cuts jumped 57 percent month-over-month in June, suggesting demand for labor is cooling. Some analysts said they’re not yet ringing recessionary bells.
“Jobless Claims (leading #indicator) continue to weaken, but realistically they’re back to 2018/2019 levels and aren’t suggesting #recession,” Richard Bernstein Advisors said in a post on Twitter.
OBSERVATION - Economy at an inflection pint.
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Invasion of Illegals -
After year after a district court ruled the 0bama DACA program was illegal, eysterday the the 5th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New Orleans heard an appeal of last year’s decision. Politico reports that the panel assigned to hear the case seemed skeptical of DACA’s legality. A decision from the panel is expected in the next few months. Whatever they decide, everyone expects the result will be appealed to the full 5th Circuit and after that to the Supreme Court. In neither case do DACA supporters seem to have a lot of reason to hope for a reversal of the decision the Texas judge reached last year, i.e. that the entire program was illegally implemented.
Only the federal government is legally authorized to enforce immigration law. As legal justification, Abbott cites Article IV, § 4 of the US Constitution.
“‘[T]he United States … shall protect each [State in this Union] against Invasion,’ and thus has forced the State of Texas to build a border wall, deploy state military forces, and enter into agreements as described in Article I, § 10 of the U.S. Constitution to secure the State of Texas and repel the illegal immigration that funds the cartels.”
OBSERVATION - Expect major league wrangling on this one. This would be a big counter illegal operation and could create an even greater rift between Red states and DC as other non-border states are likely to be supportive of the effort - being hammered by increased drugs and crime issues as well.
The number of crimes committed by illegal immigrants in the United States surged in fiscal year 2021 after declining in the years before that.
Homicides, assaults, incidents of domestic violence, illegal weapons possession, and sexual offenses committed by illegal aliens all increased dramatically in fiscal year 2021 compared to fiscal year 2020, data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection shows.
OBSERVATION - Hard to argue that this isn’t an invasion.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
Biden is expected to formalize instructions to the Departments of Justice and Health and Human Services to push back on efforts to limit the ability of women to access federally approved abortion medication or to travel across state lines to access clinical abortion services. Biden’s executive order will also direct agencies to work to educate medical providers and insurers about how and when they are required to share privileged patient information with authorities — an effort to protect women who seek or utilize abortion services. He will also ask the Federal Trade Commission to take steps to protect the privacy of those seeking information about reproductive care online and establish an interagency task force to coordinate federal efforts to safeguard access to abortion.
OBSERVATION - A new federal mechanism to go round the USSC.
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Domestic Terror -
Two men who were allegedly plotting a mass shooting in Virginia are in the state illegally, with one of the men having been deported several times, according to authorities.
Authorities arrested 52-year-old Julio Alvarado-Dubon and 38-year-old Roman Balacarcel, who allegedly planned to shoot up Richmond’s Fourth of July celebration. Both men were charged with being non-citizens in possession of a gun. Smith said the men are roommates.
Alvarado-Dubon had two rifles, a handgun and 200 rounds of ammunition and was arrested July 1. Balacarcel was surveilled by authorities and arrested Tuesday with the same charges. Both were from from Guatemala
OBSERVATION - I haven’t seen any links yet to any Central American terror group, but the fact they were working together plus had firearms they shouldn’t have points to support of some kind.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -
Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was shot in the back and killed according to NHK. Witness tells NHK that Shinzo Abe was shot twice with a shot gun, the first caused him to fall backwards, the second shot, he fell to the ground. After shooting, the attacker didn’t flee, he simply stood there.
Photo suggests homemade double barrel shotgun.
Shooter of former Japan PM Shinzo Abe identified as ex trooper of Japanese Army (JASD). Shooter identified as Tetsuya Yamagami, 41, of Nara, according to Japanese media. Yamagami allegedly admitted to plotting to kill Abe because he thought the ex-prime minister was connected to an organization that he bore a grudge against.
Police did not reveal the name of the organization or elaborate on what it believed in, adding it wasn’t clear if the group even existed. The alleged assassin’s grudge reportedly did not appear to be about politics, according to police. The suspect reportedly told police that he
Japan’s internal affairs ministry says it has no plans to postpone or change date for the upper house election on Sunday.
OBSERVATION - Assassination of political leaders is never a good harbinger of things to come. I’m sure more of the true motive will come out soon. Remember, democrats have been calling for violence against political opponents here in the US, and this could trigger copy cat attempts.
Abe was conservative and drew the ire of liberals, Korean and Chinese nationalists .
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
It is likely that there will be two simultaneous actions. First, Russian forces that expended themselves in the main effort will pause and maybe even rotated to the rear to re-arm and re-man. Secondly, Russian forces on the flanks will pursue attacks backed by greater artillery support.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Putin says Russia has not started it’s Ukraine campaign ‘in earnest’
RUMINT -
Pro Russian bloggers and analysts have been very vocal decrying the use of HIMARS by Ukraine and the increased effectiveness in striking Russian command centers and supply dumps.
Russian Personnel Issues -
- Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that Russian forces involved in combat were “taking measures to recover their combat capabilities,”
- A volunteer tank battalion is being raised in Nizhny Novgorod Oblast. They’re offering a 200,000 ruble one-time payment, 250,000 rubles a month, and 6 month contracts. Volunteers will also receive the combat veteran status and other benefits.
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Hot and dry over the 10 day forecast period with chances of thunderstorms.
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Not much change from previous day. Ukraine repositions for next defensive battle while Russia works to reman and rearm forces to continue he battle to the west.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv. Russians continued probing attacks north of Kharkiv.
Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. Russia continued offensive operations toward Siversk from west of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border.
Russian army has partial success in the offensive towards Verkhniokamianske, under the cover of massive artillery barrages.
More intense artillery attacks directed to support ground attacks towards Bakhmut.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Largely quiet along this sector overnight.
Crimea Front -
More Russian probing attacks on Ukrainian positions north of Kherson
Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
Partisan Resistance -
Ukrainian partisans blew up a railway bridge about 25 km north of Melitopol between Novobohdanivka and Troitske on July 7, likely further obstructing Russian resupply efforts from Crimea to the Zaporizhia Oblast front line.
OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.
BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts.
Operationally, Russia faces a much bigger problem pushing westward. They had a tactical advantage of focusing their firepower and man power into a narrow pocket of Ukrainian territory. This stressed Ukrainan logistics in a manner similar in some aspects as what happened to Russian earlier. However, Russia can no longer have short, supportable pincer attacks - but faces a broader front that Ukraine can reinforce easier. If Russian milbloggers are correct and Ukraine is hitting and hurting Russian command posts and logistics, this Russia attack to the west will not be as easy as the last battle.
Some are looking at the possibility that Ukraine could use its recently acquired Harpoon missiles to take out the Kersch Strait bridge - connecting Crimea to Russia. If Ukraine is capable enough, such an attack would devastate Russian supplies to the war effort.
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Belarus -
Belarus has extended military exercises until at least July 16, monitoring project Belarusian Gayun reported on Telegram, citing the schedule of exercises at Belarusian military training grounds.
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Authorities arrested (Illegals) 52-year-old Julio Alvarado-Dubon and 38-year-old Roman Balacarcel, who allegedly planned to shoot up Richmond’s Fourth of July celebration. ....Both were from from 'Guatemala'.
Farmers in Italy and Poland are protesting too. They are being told to lower livestock by 30%
The Case Report Forms (CRFs) from Pfizer Phase 3 trials contain often vague explanations of the specific symptoms experienced by the trial participants. They also reveal a trend of classifying almost all adverse events — and in particular severe adverse events (SAEs) — as being “not related” to the vaccine.
OBSERVATION - This information , part of a freedom of information act lawsuit, shows a continuing trend of malfeasance by Phizer as well as the federal govt in pushing this dangerous ‘vaccine’ onto the American people. Not a legal beagle, but demonstrated fraud may well cause Phizer’s immunity clause from lawsuits to be stripped away. These and other documents that have come out lay a good foundation for that fraud.
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Globalism / Great Reset -
30,000 Dutch farmers continue their protests against GGR inspired nitrogen emissions cuts of up to 70 percent. Michael Yon reports the farmers have started setting hay bale fires and manure fires all over the Netherlands in protest of the loss of their livelihoods.
There are further reports of farmer protest developing in Poland, Italy, India (water crisis), and Ghana. Though not all these are related GGR ‘climate’ related restrictions , all deal with govt policies making farming nearly impossible to continue.
Academics from the University of Oxford and Imperial College London say that every airport in the United Kingdom must close; all beef and lamb must be made illegal; and all new construction must halt in order to reach “zero emissions” goals by 2050. “In addition, the report states that to obey the law of the Climate Change Act the public will be required to stop doing anything that causes emissions regardless of its energy source. According to the report this will require the public to never eat beef or lamb ever again.”
OBSERVATION - Openly aggressive GGR goals are fully coming into the open in Europe, seeking compliant countries with which to start their benevolent reigns of terror.
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Wuhan virus -
Yellowstone became the fourth national park to re-impose the requirement yesterday for everyone over the age of two including the vaccinated, applying to indoor areas — including ticket offices, cafes and restaurants. Grand Canyon, Yosemite and Grand Teton brought back their mandates last month.
America’s Covid cases appear to have flatlined with 110,000 infections now being recorded every day on average. Now the doom warriors are reporting that BA.5, an Omicron subvariant, also known as ‘Ninja,’ is now the dominant coronavirus strain in the United States, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They say Ninja “is the most dangerous” variant yet and serves as “a strong reminder the COVID pandemic isn’t over,”
OBSERVATION - Again, the push for more jabs, even though the facts are in and they don’t work but in fact are more dangerous now than the disease itself.
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Economy -
Non-farm payrolls added 372,000 jobs in June, well above the consensus estimate of around 268,000 and about even with the 384,000 jobs (revised) added in May, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. Notable job growth last month occurred in professional and business services, leisure and hospitality, and health care. The number of employed Americans interrupted its previous upward march, settling at 158,111,000 in June, down 315,000 from the May number.
OBSERVATION - Like inflation data, interpreting jobs data is a contorted mess given has previous administrations have played with the numbers categories in an effort to make their policies look better than they are. One of the data points continually under looked is the participation data - those actively looking for work versus those long term out of the job market entirely. The participation rate was 61.4 percent when Biden took office as the pandemic raged. Today’s number, 62.2 percent, is still below the Trump-era high of 63.4 percent in February 2020, just before wuhan shut things down. Economists note that real employment numbers still haven’t recovered from the wuhan shut down.
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Invasion of Illegals -
United States border agents used “unnecessary force” against Haitian migrants along the country’s border with Mexico last year, a new federal report has found, after dramatic scenes at the Rio Grande River drew widespread condemnation and calls for accountability.
OBSERVATION - This in spite of a board of inquiry conclusion that the agents did nothing wrong. Just more evidence of a totalitarian govt WANTING illegals to overwhelm the border and portions of the country. The agents may have good grounds to sue to have their punishments removed.
Biden’s administration on July 8 asked the Supreme Court to stay a lower court order that is preventing it from implementing guidance that narrows which illegal immigrants can be arrested and deported.
The ruling by the U.S. Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals this week has forced the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to “halt all implementation of the Guidance that had been charting the agency’s course for months” and thousands of DHS workers “have been told that they must disregard their training and stop considering the Secretary’s instructions,” Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, a Biden appointee, told the court in an application for a stay.
The appeals court on Wednesday upheld a district judge’s ruling that found the guidance in question, promulgated in 2021 by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, doesn’t adhere to federal law that instructs the U.S. government to arrest, detain, and remove illegal aliens convicted of certain crimes.
OBSERVATION - In the before times it would be inconceivable that the govt would even thiink of going as far as wanting to release uncontrollably illegals (who are already criminals by their immingation status) who’ve have committed crimes here in the US beyond that. Once again, my observation is that biden et al WANT border chaos and the essential elimination of national borders - all being in line with the GGR/WEF goal of no more national sovereignty.
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Biden / Harris watch -
At the announcement for a proabort EO, Biden accidentally readsthe part on the teleprompter that says “repeat the line” when they wanted him to say the line again. Biden was slurring his words hard, at one point saying “right now, in all 50 straits and the District of Combia”:
Biden administration claims the US is experiencing best economy in history - not further evidenceof his lack of mental capacity is necessary.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
The nation’s largest teachers union voted on Wednesday to defend abortion-on-demand, capping off a politically charged convention that encouraged teachers to “validate” children experimenting with transgender ideology and homosexuality.
OBSERVATION - The left is at war with us on many fonts. Schools are one area this is glaringly evident. We may be able to salvage some of out kids thru homeschooling or private education, but for the vast majority they will have to endure crap sandwiches made by these teachers.
IN RELATED - The National Education Association (NEA), the largest teachers union in the country, recently dropped more than $140,000 toward research into conservative organizations working to combat critical race theory and sexualization in schools, Townhall reported on Friday.
“NEA shall compile research to create fact sheets about the largest 25 organizations that are actively working to diminish ... students’ right to honesty in education, freedom of sexual and gender identify, and teacher autonomy,” the resolution states.
OBSERVATION - Creation of ‘enemy lists’ is just a step away from condoning violent actions against those on the ‘list’. Seen it already on many different other topics.
Speaking of ‘lists’, the conservative members of the USSC are being further targeted by the left, and now getting closer to someone attempting an assault or assassination attempt. A left-wing activist group is encouraging users on social media to tweet the location of any of the conservative Supreme Court Justices in exchange for money.
ShutDownDC is promising a bounty of $50 for anyone who shares a ‘confirmed sighting’ and a further $200 if they are still in that location half an hour later.
‘DC Service Industry Workers... If you see Kavanaugh, Alito, Thomas, Gorsuch, Coney Barrett or Roberts DM us with the details!
‘We’ll Venmo you $50 for a confirmed sighting and $200 if they’re still there 30 mins after your message,’ the activist group tweeted on Friday
Twitter has so far been completely silent on whether the ‘bounties’ may contravene the social media platforms rules and policies.
Twitter forbids users from encouraging others to harass an individual or group of people.
‘We prohibit behavior that encourages others to harass or target specific individuals or groups with abusive behavior.
This follows Wednesday night when Justice Brett Kavanaugh was forced to sneak out of a Washington D.C. steakhouse when he was confronted by pro-choice protesters.
OBSERVATION - With the assassination of Abe by a probable leftist and recent mass shootings here in the US by unstable leftists - such ‘hunting’ of justices could very likely result in a “copy cat” assassination attempt.
IN RELATED - Thousands of people have been making fake reservations at Morton’s steakhouse after the restaurant defended conservative Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade last month. A representative for Morton’s wrote in a statement to Politico: “Honorable Supreme Court Justice Kavanaugh and all of our other patrons at the restaurant were unduly harassed by unruly protestors while eating dinner at our Morton’s restaurant. Politics, regardless of your side or views, should not trample the freedom at play of the right to congregate and eat dinner. There is a time and place for everything. Disturbing the dinner of all of our customers was an act of selfishness and void of decency.”
Abortion Rights Activists Protest Against Supreme Court Thousands booked fake reservations at a Morton’s after the restaurant defended Brett Kavanaugh.
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CANCEL CULTURE FRONT
Elon Musk says he’s terminating US$44 billion Twitter deal, twitter threatens to sue.
OBSERVATION - LOL, will have to see how this plays out. Is Musk the cat to twitter’s mouse? It wasn’t long ago that twitter vowed to keep him from purchasing the company.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
On Friday, the Wisconsin Supreme Court outlawed ballot drop boxes by a 4–3 vote.
OBSERVATION - Components of the decision infer that the 2020 vote was indeed skewed by fraud. Liberal heads in the MSM have been exploding over this decision.
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Strategic Activity / Deployments -
Some 40,000 National Guard and 22,000 Reserve soldiers who refused to be vaccinated against COVID-19 are no longer allowed to participate in their military duties, also effectively cutting them off from some of their military benefits, Army officials announced Friday.
“Soldiers who refuse the vaccination order without an approved or pending exemption request are subject to adverse administrative actions, including flags, bars to service, and official reprimands,” an Army spokesperson said in a statement.
The move comes in the midst of the annual training season, during which part-time soldiers are often ordered to serve from two weeks to a month with their units for summer training exercises. Those training events are usually critical for soldiers to sharpen their military skills and for unit commanders to ensure their formations are ready to deploy if needed.
If the soldiers continue to refuse the vaccine, the consequences could be even more dire.
“In the future, Soldiers who continue to refuse the vaccination order without an exemption may be subject to additional adverse administrative action, including separation,” the Army spokesperson said.
OBSERVATION - Military only authorized to administer Pfizer Cormarity vaccine. However, Comarity has not been produced and is the only legally authorized vaccine for the military. They have been administering an unauthorized ‘vaccine’ violating their own orders - hence illegal. On a larger scale hit - Guard and Reserve forces have pulled the yeoman’s task globally since Desert Storm. Loss of 60K, combined with the inability to meet recruitment goals only further damages our military unnecessarily (and I say deliberately).
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China -
China’s Defense Ministry was cited in Reuters as describing the drills as a warning aimed at the visit of a US senator. It said “China firmly opposes the visit by a US senator to Taiwan which severely damages the relationship of the two countries and two militaries, while it added that the drill near Taiwan is directed at US and Taiwan provocation.” US Senator Rick Scott of Florida arrived in Taiwan on Thursday afternoon for a two-day visit. Importantly, his visit marks no less than the seventh US senator to visit the democratic-run island this year alone.
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North/South Korea -
NUKE WATCH on going.
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Japan -
An ‘explosive-like device ‘has been found at the home of Tetsuya Yamagami, the suspect apprehended after the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. The development was reported by Kyodo News and NHK News, pointing to a more complicated picture than has been painted thus far by the assassin’s statement to police. Mainichi News interviewed investigators who said the man “claimed to have been targeting a religious leader who was not present at the event,” as reported by Yahoo News. “The investigators also told the outlet that the man was making repetitive, nonsensical statements.”
However, Japan’s Public broadcaster NHK reported that Tetsuya Yamagami targeted Shinzo Abe with the intention of killing him.
RUMINT - Some have found a reference to “getting close to Shinzo Abe” and “completing the task” by a Chinese language user on chinese twitter about 17 hours before the assassination. Abe had been a staunch, out spoken supporter of Taiwan. Further rumors that China had preveiously instituted an open death threat against the former Japanese Prime Minister.
OBSERVATION - Little is known of the motive yet. General likelihood is the shooter was a liberal targeting a conservative - but that is far too simple. Abe had many enemies in the country as well as the region. They must have still viewed him a a threat even though he had retired from the PM position which he held longer than any other since the end of WW2.
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Russia -
WAR WATCH - The Battle for Donbas is on - now in its the fourth month of the war. It has now been 77 days since the Russians launched the Battle of the Donbas.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Russia now essentially controls Luhansk Oblast, Russian forces are now focusing on pushing toward the towns of Siversk, Feroivka and Bakhmut in the Donetsk region
It is likely that there will be two simultaneous actions. First, Russian forces that expended themselves in the main effort will pause and maybe even rotated to the rear to re-arm and re-man. Secondly, Russian forces on the flanks will pursue attacks backed by greater artillery support.
ALSO - there is a lot of propaganda out there. I’m doing my best to filter that out or put into context. When In doubt I’ve been trying to identify questionable information.
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Russian Navy the submarine “Belgorod”, which will be the first carrier of “Poseidons”, was recently launched. It is designed to carry externally mounted “’Poseidon” drone’ submarine the size of a bus designed to carry a mammoth nuclear bomb (allegedly with explosive power of two million tons of TNT).
Logistics -
- Russian troops using S-300 missile for surface-to-surface strikes, instead of surface-to-air. Cases recorded in Luhansk, Donetsk regions. And now also in Mykolaiv. Russian troops launched 6 S-300 missiles into Mykolaiv
Russian Personnel Issues -
- In Bakhchiria, Russia, a call for volunteers was made to form a battalion to be sent to Ukraine. +-100 people responded, most of them being veterans, and were greeted by the head of the republic, Radiy Khabirov.
- Russian prisoners with combat experience are reportedly being taken out of prisons in Nizhny Novgorod and Mordovia to fight in Ukraine.
- “Russia is moving reserve forces from across the country and assembling them near Ukraine for future offensive operations. A large proportion of the new infantry units are probably deploying with MT-LB vehicles taken from long-term storage as their primary transport.”
- Russian forces have reportedly mobilized approximately 140,000 servicemen in Donbas by mid-June, from Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR). Russian officials also reportedly established eight mobilization centers in occupied settlements in Donbas to recruit reserves.
- Losses to the officer corps appear to be deep. The BBC reports that Russian forces have lost at least 773 officers since the start of the invasion. The BBC also reported that at least four generals, 21 colonels, 126 majors, and 568 junior officers had died as of July 7
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Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST - Hot with increasing thunderstorms and rain over the 10 day forecast period
24 HOUR ROUND UP -
Russia continues its passive / aggressive operational pause in the east. This is evidenced by limited ground attacks but extensive artillery/missile attacks. Documented use of S-300 air defense missiles in a ground attack role is a more interesting development - suggesting that Russia is scraping the bottom of the barrel for longer range missile capabilities. There has been fewer air launched and ground launched standard missile attacks lately.
Ukraine keeps finding more and more Russian ammo dumps and blowing them sky high. The cumulative effects of such hits has got to be making an impact on Russian planning given that they have relied so much on heavy artillery support of late. Lots of artillery means lots of ammo dumps.
Kyiv front -
Nothing significant to report.
Northern (Chernihv region ) and North Eastern (Konotop - Sumy salient) Fronts -
More Russian artillery fire scattered around the regions.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front -
Russian forces continued air, artillery, and rocket strikes on Ukrainian military infrastructure and settlements north, northeast, and east of Kharkiv. Kharkiv itself hit by Russian missiles. Russia has launched limited ground attacks to preemptively counter Ukrainan attacks.
Russian occupation authorities reportedly imposed martial law at occupied parts of Kharkiv region. The introduction of martial law likely indicates that Russian occupation authorities are very concerned about partisan activity and fear Ukrainian sabotage of Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in eastern Kharkiv Oblast.
Donetsk Oblast -
Fluid tactical situation. Russians continue to shell and bomb throughout the region. However, no significant ground operations by either side.
Russian forces continued to launch assaults in effort to reach Siversk from the Lysychansk area but did not make any confirmed territorial gains. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian artillery fire repelled Russian force from newly-established positions in Verknokamyanske (approximately 8 km east of Siversk)
Russians continued to strike Bakhmut with considerable artillery, attempting to reproduce conditions for a ground assault that they’ve applied recently elsewhere.
A Ukrainian regional official warned of deteriorating living conditions in a city captured by Russian forces two weeks ago, saying Sievierodonetsk is without water, power or a working sewage system while the bodies of the dead decompose in hot apartment buildings.
Eastern (Donbas Separatist Region) Front -
Russian artillery hit all long the LOC with no significant ground operations by either side.
Crimea Front -
Russian troops used S-300 missile for surface-to-surface strikes, instead of surface-to-air. Cases recorded in Luhansk, Donetsk regions. And now also in Mykolaiv, wheereRussian troops launched 6 S-300 missiles into the city.
Russian ammo dumps in Davydiv Brid, Pravdyne, and Nova Kakhovka were hit overnight.
Russian forces continue with out success to try to push Ukrainian forces from their positions on the eastern bank in Lozove.
Interesting note - Ukrainian aviation continues to successfully strike Russian positions in Kherson Oblast. A continuing saga, Russia still hasn’t established clear air superiority.
Videos from Ukranian forces that landed on Snake Island show considerable destruction that Ukraine was able to inflict on Russian forces occupying the island and the hastiness of their withdrawl.
Western / Central Ukraine -
Nothing significant to report
Russian Territory -
Nothing significant to report
Partisan Resistance -
Police officer who joined Russian administration in the Kherson region of occupied southern Ukraine and promoted to Deputy Head of Police was assassinated. He was killed in Nova Kakhovka in his car- Ukrainian SOF’s National Resistance Centre reports.
Targeting assisted most likely by partisans as Ukraine is hitting more and more Russian ammo storage sites throughout occupied territories, deep behind Russian lines. Overnight ammo dumps in Irmino, Khartsyzk, Melitopol, and Kherson were hit.
OUTLOOK - Battles in eastern Ukraine continue to be vicious and fluid.
BLUF - Both sides are taking a breather of sorts. More and more news of Russian ammo dumps being hit and I expect even more to be hit in the coming days. Between Parisian support in targeting, and better overall intelligence combined with precision long range weapons (HIMARS) Ukraine has been able to strike them without warning and Russia seems to lack any means to stop the attacks, short of the massive task of moving them around to avoid detection.
Russian milbloggers still bemoaning the increased loss as well of Russian command post to more accurate western weapons. Still in the RUMINT category, but likely - especially is partisan eyes can get the targeting data quickly to Ukraine shooters.
Ukraine is falling back on well defendable terrain, while keeping Russia from capturing withdrawn terrain too quickly.
Reports of Russian ad hoc infantry and tank battalions being scraped together and equipped with poor tanks (old T72 and T62 tanks) and APC (MT-LB - originally designed in the 50’s to tow artillery pieces) combined with limited training doesn’t bode well for Russia.
Use of S-300s in ground attack role raises more questions about Russia’s resources to sustain longer range missile attacks.
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Moldova/Transnistria -
News out of this region has been pretty quiet lately, though things could change quickly.
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Belarus -
Belarus may announce default next week
International rating agency Fitch Ratings has downgraded long-term rating of Belarus from CCC to C. This means the beginning of country’s default.
Downgrade occurred due to Belarus’ decision to pay eurobond payments in Belarusian rubles.
OBSERVATION - Just one more reason it is unlikely Belarus will attack Ukraine. Internal dissension on the economy could create protests/riots which the president will need military muscle to defend against - and it is a highly questionable military loyalty at the moment.
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Europe / NATO General -
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The leaders of Greece and Bulgaria inaugurated a new pipeline that will supply natural gas from Azerbaijan to Bulgaria, whose vital supply of Russian gas was cut off in April amid the fallout over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
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Middle East / N. Africa General -
biden is planning a trip to the middle east region - many largely think to try to get the OPEC countries to pump more oil and lower prices.
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Black Swans -
Governments from Portugal to Italy are calling on citizens to limit water use to a bare minimum due to severe drought and scarce rainfall.
The situation is most dramatic in northern Italy where unusually low levels of River Po – the country’s largest river, are transforming Italy’s largest fertile region, affecting crop production and threatening the densely populated region with a serious drinking shortage.
OBSERVATION - Real climate effects are impacting larger and larger areas of the globe. Here in the US, Lake Mead is very near ‘dead pool’ levels, threatening something in the neighborhood of 40 million with the loss of power and water.
The new outbreak of the Marburg Virus is happening in Ghana. The two victims that have died so far did not know each other, and officials believe that this is evidence that “the disease is spreading more widely”…
The largest outbreak to date was in Angola in 2005, when 374 caught the virus and 329 died – a fatality rate of 88 percent.
OBSERVATION - Monkey pox didn’t work, so here is the next threat. While this is far more severe a threat than wuhan ever dreamed of, historically it doesn’t seem to do well in other regions of the world. Never the less, need to pin this on the board to keep an eye on.