0.65% - 1%.
Between Pfizer and Moderna, there were about 74,000 participants in just their US based Phase 3 clinical trials. If half of them were in the placebo group, that’s 37,000 people running around who think they may have gotten vaccinated, but who didn’t actually get vaccinated. The people enrolled in these sorts of trials are those most exposed to the disease because you don’t get good results from people sheltering at home. Assuming half of those in the placebo group caught COVID-19, that’s 18,500 contracting it. About 80% will have mild or asymptomatic illness, but about 5% will be hospitalized. That’s 925 hospitalized and with the IFR above, that’s 120 - 185 deaths.
With the vaccine, it would be expected that hospitalizations for this group would go from 925 to 28 and deaths to go from ~153 to 1 or 2.
The real world for me is that I at much greater risk of dying from an auto accident than the “killer virus”.
All the rest is noise...