**Look at the angle of the barrel when the muzzle flashed. The round would have hit Ashli in the hips.**
She was squeezing through the broken window. Her head may have been as low as her hips would have been, IF she could have gotten her hips that far, seeing that she was in a crouch when shot. If her hips had made it to the window opening, I believe she would have fell forward to the floor, not backward.
In the video I saw, it looked like she was just getting her shoulders through went she was shot.
I figured the doors were 36” wide each. There are straight-on images showing Ashli’s placement in the window frame of the right-side partition. The shooter was obviously behind the left-side partition. Let’s say the gun was 90” away from Ashli (2.5 door-widths). Ashli’s shoulder 14” vertically above the tip of the barrel. To hit Ashli in the shoulder/neck area, the trajectory of the round would need to be point upwards by 9 degrees. Just draw a 14x90 unit triangle to see the required angle. It’s fairly steep. The barrel doesn’t appear to be more than 4 degrees upwards at the moment the muzzle flashed.
I have absolutely no problem being wrong with the estimates. And properly projected, the images and structural reference geometry may show the alignment exists to support the allegations. The publicly available images and videos seem to show the gun was pointing too low.
FWIW, I was appalled by the initial reports of the shooting. My perspective changed after seeing the videos. And truth be told, I’d rather know that Ashli was alive, and made a poor choice getting involved with those crisis actors — the actors that coordinated her entry into the window frame.
>> If... I believe she would have fell forward to the floor, not backward
I agree given the conditions you mentioned.
In the videos, you may notice virtually no lateral movement after the round was fired. Ashli fell straight back. I have no clue what’s the effective force of a round fired from 8 feet away, but I imagine there would be some indication of impact.