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As usual, your comments and analysis are much appreciated.

A few additional thoughts:

Russia would not be doing what they are doing militarily near the border with Ukraine unless they expected to gain something from it. Thus far it seems they have gained nothing.

The steps they have taken cost an unknown amount but are not free. And they create a negative impression of Russia in much of the world.

The negative impression may adversely affect Russia in a business sense.

It is even possible the Russian buildup will lead to increased military spending in the parts of Europe that feel threatened. (Talk is cheap, so I would not expect Germany, France, and the UK to actually do anything.)

So.. Given these negatives, what is Russia’s objective?

Personally, I think Russia can see the obvious: U.S. leadership is incredibly weak and our ability to respond is nearly non-existent. If Russia wishes to annex the portions of Ukraine with substantial populations of ethnic Russians to Russia itself, what better time to do so?

The next question is when?

Historically, winter in that part of the world is where armies go to die. But that applies to attacks on Russia. It may not be relevant if Russia’s objective is limited to something they can quickly achieve and then stop.

In that case, winter would work in Russia’s favor just as it has in the past. A western military response would be difficult, and the loss of Russian natural gas in western Europe would create civilian havoc.

If Russia EVER intends to add portions of Ukraine, they cannot risk waiting until next year’s elections in the U.S. change control of Congress. Next winter would be too late. Spring and/or summer would throw away their weather advantage.

So... My personal guess is any time between Christmas this year and the middle of next month. It is interesting that Putin very publicly stated that his military would be given two days off around New Year’s day. A statement like that could easily be designed to mislead.

If this is limited to a Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine, the world response will be all talk and no action. It will blow over within months.

A much worse scenario would include coordination between China and Russia. If China decides to take over Taiwan at the same time then things could spiral out of control.

However, from China’s perspective, the same U.S. weakness would work in China’s favor. China has the additional advantage of a near strangle hold on many things used in the U.S., such as medicines and medical supplies, and the raw materials used in modern electronics. If China took over Taiwan they would gain significantly in high tech chip/circuit manufacturing as well.

I’m sure you’re aware of all this, but I thought it might useful to put it in writing.