Given the tempo of the war between Gaza and Israel as well as in other areas, I made time to put together a streamlined report to maintain continuity.
Biden watch -
Regarding vaccinations biden said - “if they do not, states with low vaccination rates may see those rates, may see this progress, reversed. Ultimately, those who are not vaccinated will end up paying the price. The vaccinated will continue to be protected against serve illnesses, but others may not be if you’re not vaccinated.”
NOTE - This appears to be another threat against the unvaxxed.
The White House on Monday called an early afternoon lid on President Joe Biden’s public activities after an extended weekend at home in Delaware. Heaven forbid the middle east is threatening to blow up and the economy is on life support and hundred of thousands of Illegals are pouring into our country . . . . .
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CW2/Domestic violence -
CORRECTION - George Floyd Week is next week, 22-29 May, not this week.
(FO) The Pentagon has plans to “continuously” monitor social media accounts of service members, according to a document leaked to a journalist at The Intercept. In order to circumvent First Amendment concerns, the Defense Department will contract third party digital surveillance firms to look for “concerning behaviors” online. While several high ranking U.S. military leaders have pushed back on the idea that the force has problems with extremism, the Pentagon has forged ahead with its Countering Extremism Working Group.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
(FO) The U.S. Navy relocated two MQ-4C Triton unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) from Guam to the Misawa base in Northern Japan. This is the first time that the unarmed, high-altitude, long endurance surveillance UAVs have been deployed to Japan. According to the Navy, they will provide “the Japan-U.S. alliance with enhanced maritime surveillance capabilities.”
The Tritons were first deployed to Guam last year and have conducted multiple surveillance missions of People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) bases along China’s East coast, forces in the Taiwan Strait, and in the proximity of artificial islands in the South China Sea. The Tritons will accompany reconnaissance and anti-submarine aircraft in Misawa and give “the navy an opportunity to test out the capability over more congested waters and other different environmental factors.” Meanwhile, the U.S. Air Force will soon deploy RQ-4 Global Hawk UAVs to Japan as they have since approximately 2014. With a maximum operational range of more than 9,300 and 12,300 miles respectively, the Triton and Global Hawk can be used to conduct surveillance of Chinese forces throughout most of the Pacific. The move is likely a combination of seasonal rotations to avoid typhoons, preventing UAVs from being concentrated in one area that could be targeted by the PLAN in the future, and the military’s ongoing push to integrate unmanned systems into various combat or combat support units.
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China -
(FO) Taiwan is reorganizing its Army command structure to improve joint operations with the Air Force, Navy, and regional commands to improve operational flexibility in a conflict with China. According to Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng, multiple corps and defense commands of the Taiwanese Army will be reorganized as “combat theater commands.” The Army, however, did not announce if there will be any changes to the Kinmen and Matsu defense commands — the first line of defense off the coast of mainland China. The Army will initially lead all these new regional commands, but Navy and Air Force commanders are possible in the future, especially in the second theater command in eastern Taiwan and outlying islands. Joint combatant commands and better interservice coordination will likely improve the survivability and adaptability of Taiwanese forces during a military conflict with China.
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Israel - WAR
One outcome from this war maybe the creation of a more stable government. PM Netanyahu and Blue and White chairman (who is also the minister of defense) Benny Gantz are in talks to form another unity government as Israel continues to face rocket barrages from the Gaza Strip, Channel 12 News reported.
OBSERVATION - War tends to strip away the petty and reveals the character of the individual. I think that is what happed as the two worked through this crisis.
According to the Washington Post, Biden’s administration has approved the sale of $735 million in weapons to Israel as the nation continues to battle a barrage of rockets fired by the terrorist organization Hamas from Gaza. Congress was first notified of the potential sale on May 5, according to three people familiar with the matter. Anti-Israeli congress critters are calling for a review to stop but at this time it appears there are too late.
Given how anti-Israel biden’s administration is this is surprising. The US mission to the United Nations has blocked a joint statement condemning the violence between Israel and Palestinian-backed terrorist groups. This is the third attempt by the UN Security Council to issue such a statement in the past week, with the United States being the only one to block the statement each time. The statement is not a peace seeking statement by the council, but rather a statement to condemn Israel by world leaders.
Biden is also starting to cave from the anti-Israel leftists and is calling for a cease fire. Gantz spoke with Sec Def Austin on Tuesday that Hamas continues to fire at civilians and other aggressive operations, and that the military operation will continue with the aim of bringing long-term peace. Gantz added that Israel has been and will continue to act with security and political responsibility and has achieved significant military achievements in recent days.
IAF reported 6 rockets were fired from Lebanon toward northern Israel Monday, all of which fell inside Lebanon. In response, our artillery forces fired toward the sources of the launches. “The operation will last at least another 48 hours”, IDF chief of staff tells local heads of communities in southern Israel. The IDF estimates that there will still be rocket launches from Lebanese territory towards Israel by Palestinian squads.
NOTE - I’ve posted earlier, smaller groups loyal to Hamas inhabit Lebanon and Syria. I don’t expect these elements to be effective.
Palestinians across Israel and the occupied territories went on strike in a rare collective action against Israel’s policies on Tuesday with strikes called. There has been a lot of civil unrest across many arab / jewish mixed cities in Israel and the chances of violence breaking out by the protests in support of Hamas are high.
An aspect that came to light has been an element of Israeli “shock and awe” in that over the past few days IAF would time their air strikes and unleash 60-80 bombs at nearly the same time. Very frightful to the locals in Gaza. Even with that, IAF strikes are trending down.
Rocket fire from Gaza continues to decline with greater intervals between salvo and fewer rockets fired. IDF spokesperson Tuesday morning reported that Between 1900 Monday and 0700 Tuesday about 90 launches have been identified from the Gaza Strip to Israeli territory. About 20 launches fell in the Gaza Strip. This compares to thousands in the first couple days of the war.
A lesser component of the Hamas et al attacks are mortars - primarily because they are short range. With he losses of rockets, they are turning increasingly to them. Al-Quds Brigades and Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades claim to be firing mortars at Israeli soldiers/vehicles gathered near the Gaza border. More mobile, they can shoot and scoot, avoiding to a degree counter fire.
CONCLUDING OBSERVATIONS. - War tempo is declining on both sides. Hamas continues to be on the ropes but the clock is ticking. Netanyahu has stated they are in no hurry to stop the fighting until they have accomplished their goal of pounding Hamas and the other islamic terror groups into the ground. It appears that Israel has done their homework and are methodically taking out Hamas et al leadership, facilities, launch site, and munitions. The fact that Hamas is still able to throw a few rockets is a testament to just the shear volume of materials and preps they have had years to set up. This has also exposed to the Gazans just how corrupt Hamas has been in using money that was suppose to be going to better their lives. Unbelieveable money spent on a VERY extensive underground network for instance. I still anticipate a ground operation to do the final clean up in key areas some time this week as the air campaign is apparently winding down - though still a target rich environment.
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Wuhan virus -
A new study of COVID-19 vaccine recipients globally suggests that post vaccine side effects may be more common and severe in recipients who had wuhan and recovered than what medical agencies like the CDC and WHO are reporting. Additionally, other studies indicate that natural resistance is far more durable and longer lasting than publicly acknowledged.
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Economy -
Oil, iron and copper prices continue to rise to heights not seen in quite some time. This is on top of record prices for other commodities.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
B52s are operating overseas in three areas. Morón Air Base, Spain, Al Udeid Air Base, Qatar, and there also is a task force of B-52s deployed to Andersen Air Force Base, Guam. B-52s are picking up the majority of bomber taskings in the Air Force as the B-1 struggles with readiness.
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Israel - WAR
Overnight summary - Hamas continues to get hammered and their rocket attacks continue to decrease in volume and effectiveness. Israel continues to methodically decimate Hamas leaders, infrastructure and facilities. Ashdod and Ashkelon continue to bear the brunt of rocket attacks.
As i’ve indicated with the Hamas “et al” it is not Hamas alone attacking Israel. 15 armed Palestinian groups including 2 salafi-jihadist groups actively participating in this conflict.
One of the major leaders Israel is trying to eliminate Hamas’s Qassam Brigades commander Mohammed Deif, whom IDF sources said that they believe the military has a chance of eliminating if the operation continued. Military sources said Deif had been targeted more than once during the last week of fighting, but had succeeded at the last moment to get away.
A 5th round of airstrikes hit Hamas’ tunnel networks. Israel’s intelligence minister warned Tuesday that power to the Gaza Strip could soon be cut off — as the country’s military geared up for an “intensive night” of additional airstrikes against the region’s terror tunnels. Should be interesting today to watch.
Still no projected ceasefire. Netanyahu in a briefing to foreign ambassadors said: “We don’t stand with a timer. We want to achieve the goals of the operation. Previous operations lasted a long time so it is not possible to set a time frame on the operation” Another “open possibility” might be total conquest, Netanyahu warned.
NOTE - I’ve been warning about a ground invasion by Israel that could occur this week. However, the air component either is exceeding their goals, or addition prep is necessary. The focus on destroying the underground network is a bellwether indicator of a future ground operation.
Hamas reportedly agreed with an Egyptian ceasefire proposal, but was quickly denied later.
House Democrats overwhelmingly voted on Tuesday afternoon against applying sanctions on Hamas, rejecting a republican forwarded bill. The anti-Israel left is pushing biden to become more aggressively anti-Israel, after his expressed, though luke warm support for Israeli defensive actions against Hamas.
Vocal support for Hamas muted almost internationally. With few exceptions, much of the world is being relatively quiet about the conflict. Arab states historically have been Hamas supporters are especially quiet. Some analysts consider this to be the result of the signings of the Abrahamic Accord treaties and those arab countries don’t want to loose the economic benefits those treaties bring. A second reason is that Hamas is funded/supported by Iran, and Iran is the enemy of those same gulf nations. Third, Hamas has seemingly gone out of its way to insult supporters by way of its demands. All combine to leave Hamas seemingly out on its own.
CONCLUSIONS - Unless something goes very wong for Israel, they will continue to have their way with Hamas. I expect Hamas to soon start petitioning for a ceasefire in an effort to save itself. Israel for its part, facing no real opposition to its campaign, will continue to dismantle Hamas. I still expect to see a ground offensive to mop up things, but it seems that it maybe a limited operations and not the massive one that early conditions could have triggered.
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Turkey -
Late Monday, Turkey’s President Erdoğan held a media conference in which he called on the UN, UN Security Council, Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), and other international organizations to take action focusing on wrestling Jerusalem away from Israel, up to and including military action.
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Black Swans -
Californians are fearing a repeat of 2020 when power demands exceeded production and rolling black outs were implemented. This has been made even more obvious by the dramatic lack of winter moisture leaving reservoirs across the state at 50% capacity or less. This will strictly limit the hydropower component to the grid. Continued pressure to shut down fossil fuel plants and the closure of a nuke plant isn’t helping matters either.