Replies

Woah boy, here we go again.

Economy -
Colonial Pipeline announced that it had initiated the restart of pipeline operations yesterday (May 12) at approximately 5 p.m. ET. Following this restart, it will take several days for the product delivery supply chain to return to normal. Some markets served by Colonial Pipeline may experience, or continue to experience, intermittent service interruptions during the start-up period. Colonial will move as much gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel as is safely possible and will continue to do so until markets return to normal. As of this morning there have been no reported problems with restart.
Over 2000 gasoline stations are out of fuel and it will be several days until the system returns to normal.

Increased inflation numbers have hammered the markets. More analysts coming out and saying that stagflation has returned with vengeance. Those of us who remember the Carter years recognize the damage this will cause to the country. Fact is, it will be worse since so much has been lost overseas since then. Trump said it all yesterday “To compare biden to Carter is a grave disservice to Jimmy Carter” . . . . . .

Besides chicken shortages, Chick-fil-A will limit the number of condiments allowed per customer amid an industry-wide supply shortage, the firm said.

Federal Spending, Taxes, and Deficit All Set Records Through April. Not a good factor for the economy in general.
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Invasion of Illegals -
According to data released by CBP, there were 178,622 encounters between Border Patrol agents and illegal immigrants in April, up from the March record of 173,348. March’s total had been noted as the highest in the past 20 years.
The April figure represents a 944 percent increase from April 2020, when — as the coronavirus was putting its grip on North America — there were 17,106 encounters.

biden order restart of wall construction of a 13 mile segment in the Rio Grande Valley. Reports don’t really say if this is do to a change in heart of his policy or contractural requirements that would bite the govt BIG TIME.
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CW2/Domestic violence -
NYC was hit with violence between pro-palestine Antifa protestors and pro-Israel counter protestors. The number of pro-palestine Antifa supported protests are increasing nationwide and the violence in NYC indicate that they have potential to go violent.

Biden Officials Ignore BLM-Antifa Riots, Say ‘White Supremacy’ is Greatest Threat to America. The Hill reports that “Both Garland and Mayorkas testified that white supremacist groups pose the most serious domestic national security threat in the U.S., reinforcing what analysts have long concluded about far-right organizations,”.
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POLITICAL FRONT -
More than 120 retired military flag officers warned that America is under “tremendous assault” from socialist and Marxist ideologies, encouraging more citizens to counter the dangerous subversion. A line in the sand against the similar letter from military officers condemning the right and popping the salute to implement said ideologies to our military.
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Cyber Warfare -
The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency issued an emergency alert (AA21-131A) to companies to defend against DarkSide Ransomware attacks. The interim report suggests several software and human-centric approaches such as enforcing two-factor authentication and red-team exercises to limit unauthorized access.

Buried under the Colonial Pipeline hack, the DC Washington Metropolitan Police Department was hacked and personnel files downloaded earlier this month. Ransomware was also reportedly installed on the network. The attackers posted a ransom note claiming they had stolen more than 250 GB of data and threatening to publish the material if they were not paid. The ransomware group Babuk claimed credit for the attack, posting screenshots of the note that were flagged by cybersecurity researchers.The hackers then threatened to release those files to the public if their demands were met. Today they started to release files. Since January, 26 government agencies based within the United States have been hit by ransomware, Neal Dennis, a threat intelligence specialist at the cybersecurity firm Cyware, said.
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China -
(FO) The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) and Navy (PLAN) recently completed a series of landing drills with a range of various amphibious platforms and weapons systems. Videos released by the PLAN on Monday show Eastern Theater Command marines, armor, and various landing craft moving from sea-to-shore via a Type 071 amphibious transport dock (LPD), the Yimengshan. According to the PLAN, these drills were “aimed at training marines in rapid response in enemy territory.” The PLAN also recently released video of similar amphibious landing docks and ship-borne helicopters.
These exercises are another indicator that China is pushing to expand its amphibious capabilities in the Pacific, and is likely preparing for future amphibious operations in Taiwan.
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Israel - WAR

CURRENT ANNOUNCED MILITARY OBJECTIVES - The Israeli security cabinet approved the military plans for broadening the operation against Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza. Israeli officials said there is no deadline for ending the operation but it will focus for now on air strikes with no ground forces. Netanyahu said at the cabinet meeting that Israel doesn’t want a cease fire at the moment. Both Netanyahu and Foreign minister Ashkenazi said the international community understands Israel’s actions and doesn’t put pressure to end the operation for now.

IDF soldiers, armor and equipment continues to move into positions near the Gaza border.

At the time of my writing this, an estimated 2000+ rockets have been fired at Israel over the past three days. Overnight (US) it seems the volume of rocket fire has dropped, though still nearly continuous with longer pauses between launches.
While Hama’s launch tempo is down, IAF continues its heavy bombardment of Hamas, et al structures, facilities and storage areas.

Hamas has opened up a new tactic - armed dones. They were active initially , but now are being relied on more by Hamas as the rocket campaign starts to drop off. Hamas announces it launched a number of attacks on Israel with suicide drones. One drone target was suspected to be an Iron Dome battery.

Ashkelon appears to be bearing the brunt of the yesterdays rocket salvo attacks intended to overwhelm Iron Dome. Some also note that many of the rockets are longe range and flying at a low trajectory, making Iron Dome intercept more difficult.

NOTE - the performance of Iron Dome amazes me. Israel has continually updated the system and had demonstrated the ability to track and intercept multiple targets at the same time, but those demonstrations understated greatly the capability of the system. Videos showing the system defending one of the 100+ rocket attacks is stunning - showing the system has a lot more capability than has been revealed.

IDF fighter jets struck a 14-story building in southern Gaza, which housed Hamas military intelligence offices & infrastructure used to communicate tactical-military information. Civilians in the building were warned to leave and provided with sufficient time to evacuate. IDF this evening attacked Hamas Ministry of Finance, banks and money warehouses in the Gaza Strip. A senior security official explained that these sites fund terrorist acts and help Hamas control the Gaza Strip.

Hamas officials killed by IDF so far: Jomaa Tahla, Bassem Issa, Sami Radwan, Wael Issa, Hassan Kahwaji, Jamal Zabada, Hazem Khatib, Walid Shmali, Thafer Shua, Mohammad Fares, Mujahed Hadid

PM Netanyahu wants to send army to mixed cities as fighting between Jewish and Arabs spread. The last couple days arabs/Palestinian residents attacked jewish synagogues and businesses. Overnight conflict expanded with jewish citizens are burning arab businesses and relate. Addressing the rioters Netanyahu said “we cannot accept anarchy. Nothing justifies it. Nothing justifies Arabs lynching Jews and nothing justifies Jews lynching Arabs...We will bring rule of law to the cities of Israel.”

The Russian deputy foreign minister held talks with the deputy chairman of Hamas. He said that Hamas is ready to stop actions against Israel on a reciprocal basis . Egypt and Qatar pushing for ceasefire, Israel refusing. Officials say Egyptian delegation is in Tel Aviv in effort to negotiate a cease-fire in escalating Gaza conflict. Biden says he spoke with Israel’s Prime Minister Netanyahu. He says Israel has the right to defend itself against thousands of rockets flying into its territory and his hope is that this violence will come to a conclusion sooner rather than later.

OBSERVATIONS - Hamas et al still has a few tricks up its sleeves as seen by the switch to drones but is running out of gas. Drop in the rocket saturation overnight shows that the continuous IAF counter strikes are having an effect as Hamas looses launchers, rockets and senior (and junior) leadership. Their plight is evident in their being the first to call for a cease fire. Israel OTOH is determined to use this to pound them to the point where they are no longer a significant threat. This is in context to the sporadic attacks in the past but more so in the face of Hezbollah threats and concern over a two front war. The next step to watch for is an IAF ground offensive to clean out remaining facilities, fighters and leaders. Netanyahu has threatened this over the past couple years when Hamas got froggy with rocket launches, which they ceased after military movement indicators Israel was ready to invade. This time Hamas got caught with its neck sticking out and Netanyahu whats to cut it off. I don’t expect a cessation of war to stop any time soon, but do expect Hamas to cry for ceasefire even more.

This war has also nearly destroyed the coexistence of Israeli arabs and jews. Israeli arabs have the same rights as jews in the country and have lived very peacefully over the years - a fact largely overlooked/ignored by anti-Israeli pundits. The near civil war conditions in mixed cities will cause review of internal security and procedures - possibly strict measures in these mixed towns.
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Iran -
Iraniian Caspian Airlines EP-SHH was tracked making a “dark flight” from Tehran, to Damascus, Syria today. This aircraft has a reported history of being used to move missile parts/military equipment from Iran to Syria. In previous instances she arrived several hours before IDF airstrikes.

Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) is building catamaran (twin hull) type combat ships. The three new catamarans have been named the Shahid (martyr) Soleimani class. They provide more capability to be armed than the current, smaller high speed attack boat Iran uses, with little loss of speed. Recently, one of these catamaran along with fast attack boats harasses US vessels in the Persian gulf region. The capability to be more heavily armed, yet retain the speed and some maneuverability of the smaller high speed attack boats is enticing.
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Armenia/Azerbaijan -
Azerbaijani armed formations, entered the Black Lake area in Syunik early on Wednesday morning. Syunik Governor Melikset Poghosyan said that he had just been at the place where Azerbaijani troops advanced, claiming that this is their territory. “They have maps showing that it is their territory, but this is our territory, really ours. Armenian acting PM Pashinyan confirmed: Azerbaijani forces crossed the state border of Armenia, advanced 3.5 kilometers inland and are trying to occupy the Black Lake of Syunik region. Negotiations were conducted to solve issue peacefully and those Azeri forces pulled back.
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Black Swans -
The drought conditions in western US are raising serious concerns. California has issued alerts for 40 counties as last winters precipitation was less than 40% of normal. This will hit consumer pocket books later this year due to crop shortages from America’s breadbasket.

Tempo of events is speeding up.

Wuhan virus -
CDC new guidance - If you are fully vaccinated, you can resume activities that you did prior to the pandemic. Expect this to be used to put more pressure on the unvaccinated.

India reports over 4000 deaths in a day.
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Economy -
Nearly one-quarter of the money in circulation has been created since Jan 2020. Some are very concerned that the unprecedented flood of all this money into the system will trigger hyperinflation in combination with chronic shortages of goods and services.

Out of Black Swan and into mainstream. Food prices will continue to rise for at least the rest of the year due to a climate pattern called Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is happening now, typically leads to 20-30 year drought conditions impacting crops. This is the same drought currently affecting California and the Western US, China and Taiwan and Central/South America. Drought is threatening semiconductor production in Taiwan. It’s also affecting crop production in South America, while lower river levels disrupt barges carrying crops out to the Atlantic Ocean. Roughly 85% of Mexico is experiencing drought, as well. In California, it is so bad that drinking water in Los Angeles is being pitted against the farmers who grow 90% of the country’s fruits and vegetables.

One of the biggest buzz words lately has been “Transitory inflation”. The intent is to infer that any inflation will be short and we will quickly resume previous inflationary status. Well, that is the sweet talk from the Fed and Dept of the Treasury. Other metrics are more and more indicating that inflation will be running a lot longer, and higher than we are being told. Again, Stagflation is being associated with it - even by the MSM that becomes brave enough to report on it.

Rumors are Colonial Pipeline paid almost $5 million in ransom to hackers last Friday despite reports that said the company had no intention of paying...

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Biden watch -
NYT reports that Biden has a short temper and sometimes unloads outbursts of profanity on his aides. The report also reveals Biden will hang up the phone on people who he feels are wasting his time. Potential signs of mental instability?
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CW2/Domestic violence -
This being Friday, expect increasing Antifa riots in support of Gaza and Hamas. Many have been scheduled and many more likely to pop up with high chance of violence.

Haven’t been commenting on this much as I’m skeptical about much of the reports coming out, but his has hit multiple respected sources. Maricopa County deleted entire databases prior to turning over election equipment to the AZ Senate for the forensic audit now occurring. The Senate President Karen Fann today sent a letter to the County Election’s Board for an explanation. This is a smoking gun, gross violation of the law and violation of the court order. If they will go this far to hide the data - then what ARE they hiding. This fight over election fraud may not be settled after this canvas, but is the main thrust. If the dominos start to fall, chances for increased civil violence increase.
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Strategic Developments /Deployments -
The U.S. military this week has pulled out of Kandahar Airfield, a sprawling base located outside Afghanistan’s second-largest city, a U.S. official based in Kabul confirms to Fox News.
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Cyber Warfare -
President Biden on Thursday said Russian President Vladimir Putin “was not” involved in the devastating ransomware attack on the Colonial Pipeline. “I am confident that I’ve read the report of the FBI accurately. And they say they were not, he was not. The government was not,”
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Israel - WAR

The intensity and tempo of the conflict makes is a challenge to summarize and analyze.

On May 14, 1948, 73 years ago Israel declared independence and was attacked by 6 foreign armies.

Hamas et al continued to fire rocket barrages at Israeli cities, though numbers less than previous days. Current count is over 2000 rockets since Monday, most of those (about 1500) were fired within the first 48 hours.

On Thursday Israeli troops were observed assembling near the Gaza’s border amid widespread rumors of preparations for a ground invasion. Reuters is reporting that additional forces have arrived to Israel’s southern border after last night Israel’s Security Cabinet approved expanding operations in Gaza, especially the airstrikes which are expected to continue through the week. Further on Thursday Defense Minister Benny Gantz has called up extra Border Patrol reserves to help quell the ethnic attacks and chaos breaking out across multiple mixed Jewish-Arab towns and cities.
Gantz called in a “massive reinforcement” of reserve forces to help get control of the spiraling domestic situation which has seen Jewish mobs and Arab mobs clash and essentially hunt each other down in the streets, resulting in what many are calling lynching situations.

Reports that Israel has activated an additional 9,000 Reservists - on top of the 7,000 activated earlier this week . Twitter reports numerous convoys of armor and equipment being transported to the Gaza border. Growing evidence that Israel is preparing for ground offensive.

With that said, reports I’ve read this morning indicate that the rampant rumors are yesterday of a ground assault may have been a ruse to trick Hamas into thinking it was the real thing. This caused Hamas fighters to enter the underground tunnel system in Gaza City. Israel then bombarded the tunnels with intense airstrikes. One of the tunnel system targeted is the ‘Metro’ tunnel system in Gaza. Some have referred to it has an underground ‘city’ used by Hamas. IAF video of the strikes show intense bombing of the system. Hamas casualty count unknown. (The purpose of going to the tunnels is to permit IAF units to pass by then they can pop up in the rear - a form of literally ‘going to ground’). The intensity of both air and ground strikes was reportedly something not seen. IAF had 130 aircraft bombing these tunnel locations while artillery, armor, mortar and other ground fire into Gaza as huge. Video of Gaza this morning shows much of the area covered in a heavy smoke/dust.

Israel’s relentless counter strikes are visibly having an effect. Attacks overnight, in-combination with Army asset fire, were the largest of the conflict so far. Hamas salvos are half what they were and more poorly coordinated. Comments from certain Hamas-linked Telegram accounts seem to suggest that widespread communication failures are resulting in significant disruptions to larger scale, coordinated rocket attacks.

Three rockets were fired from Lebanon into the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of northern Israel overnight (Israel time). The three rockets are suspected of being GRADs. No evidence of just who fired them or authorized the action. Sources close to Hezbollah say rockets were launched towards Israel but emphasis that “it is not Hezbollah that fired these rockets. Hamas, PIJ, PFLP, PFLP-GC and other factions are present in Lebanon. Lebanese Security Forces have reportedly arrested the individuals south of Tyre, Lebanon who fired the rockets at Israel. Lebanese army found three additional rockets near al-Rachidiyeh refugee camp, most likely in preparation to be fired at Israel.
NOTE - this was a close call. Lebanon reacted quickly because the last thing they want is what little is left of their country to be turned to rubble.

Syrian sources reporting that the Israeli Air Force attacked a vehicle carrying weapons in the Al-Antalya area of Syria near the Al-Harmal area in northern Lebanon. It was further stated that the attack caused damage to property only.
NOTE - This may be associated with the cell that launched 3 rockets from Lebanon. Terrorists trying to divert Israeli resources away from Gaza.

The US reportedly has evacuated about 120 civilians and military from Israel, taking them via C17 to Germany.

OBSERVATION AND SUMMARY - Israel now seems to have the upper hand against Hamas et al and is going to continue to push to obliterate it’s abilities and leadership to the greatest extent possible. I think this includes a ground assault to clean out the areas missed/overlooked by IAF. Hamas elements in Lebanon will still try to launch attacks, but Lebanese army will probably be on them like white on rice. They want to avoid a repeat of Gaza in their country and I don’t think Hezebollah is ready to jump in at this moment.
One thing is likely, this war may have sealed an electoral victory for Netanyahu in the upcoming elections. This would break the governmental gridlock and disorder seen over the past couple years with consecutive elections. This is already apparent in that the “coalition of change” of political parties determined to end Netanyahu’s 12-year reign as prime minister seemed to be crumbling Thursday night as Yamina leader Naftali Bennett told associates he believed the option of such a government was no longer viable. Bennett also noted such a government would unable to deal with the ongoing violent clashes between Jews and Arabs and would also be unable to rely on support from Islamist Ra’am party leader Mansour Abbas, whose four Knesset seats were key to a majority government.
Finally, so far biden has kept his nose out of the conflict, only expressing support for Israel’s right of self defense. So too has most of the world been pretty quiet.
I see no end to this war in the short term.
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Afghanistan -
US pullout above.
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Black Swans -
Drought in the US has now caused concern over potential black/brown outs from shortages of electricity across most of the west due to loss of hydropower - a major component of the grid source.