The nation to watch is Singapore. Not only have they become a powerful financial hub, but they have taken in over a million Chinese immigrant workers over the past decade - many of whom are no doubt PLA plants and spies. The Lee family has been on good terms with the US, but a future Singaporean prime minister backed by a China-infiltrated government could easily turn away from a relationship with the distant and ineffective US government and sign a new agreements with China allowing their "Han Chinese brothers" to build a huge PLA Navy base and other military installations.
Using Singapore as a base and an immensely powerful "colonial" outpost, China would quickly dominate Malaysia and Indonesia and be capable of interdicting all shipping traffic between Asia and the Middle East and Europe, cutting off not only Japan and South Korea but even Australia and New Zealand. They could pull off everything Japan tried to accomplish in WWII, and the US would have little ability to stop them from dominating the affairs of Asia-Pacific nations, even if China does not go so far as to actually invade and conquer those countries. Chinese Emperors have preferred tribute to conquest, in most cases.
As the British found out, Singapore is difficult to defend; Red China would not be pressing Indonesia from there. Taiwan has to link its defenses against Red China with Japan and South Korea, as they are similarly exposed and certainly targets. To the south, India doesn’t seem concerned about them - and they can’t be ignored in ChiCom plans.
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